Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

yeah, my whole view of the gamestate would have been a clusterfuck and impossible to sort if the person I tunneled on was town

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I mean I'm only confident in it because I don't really have any other strong townreads? Like if this is green I might have to take a two day hiatus from the game to get on a clean slate.

I wasn't prepared to lynch tbqh but who would have been a better person to vote?

^this is me @ a 10

[mhsmith0]

Off the top of my head:

Karnos 7 - relatively confident, but far from a lock
Killthestory 6 - was a plausible buddy, and seemed overly survivalistic. Once he started talking about actual reads post hammer, though, it was super obvious that he was town, or just a master troll (but much likelier town)
PhantomCobalt 3 - I mainly was "on" because he had been hammered and it's bullshit for a hammer to get taken back due to mod error. Mods "I'm not replacing because L-1" was suggestive that he was the last one but I don't recall the case there being all that compelling.
Rosske/MariaR 5 - figured her or tenshii, wasn't at all sure which
Tenshii 8 - by then I really didn't have any better ideas (I'd had tangible reasons to TR the other three), and tenshii seemed to fit pretty reasonably well

[Transcend]

I for one find that reading the actions of flipped scum is pointless since they can do whatever they want to win the game.

PEDIT: Fair enough I suppose. I wouldn't qualify that confidence as a 10 for myself but we're two different people.

[Transcend]

Smith how were you relatively confident about karnos when your vote looked fairly meatless and it looked like you just sheeped Luna Fox (who you also had doubts about)?

[Transcend]

As for Rosske/Maria lynch you had yourself at a 5 and I think Tenshii was a counterwagon. Why did you ultimately go with R/M over Tenshii? If you answered this before it escapes me, but if not then please clarify.

[mhsmith0]

I didn't sheep Luna. I was actually questioning her vote basis, then went back and dug into the karnos/io/Thor back and forth and was convinced from that.

[Transcend]

VOTE: karnos
I could explain why in detail but it'd involve text walls and based on the way things have gone down I figure that town isn't actually interested. But some of the highlights:

1) as you just noted, his play has been highly defensive and inward-focused; very rarely does he engage with anyone who isn't suspecting him or addressing him (and ftr, this is NOT something he was "forced" to do, it's a choice about how he spends his time)

2) he's advanced a number of poor arguments (the "misspelling=scum" bit on io, twisting what Thor said in a few spots, notably the bit about the "100%" town read on you, etc)

3) 196 reads as pretty fake

Ps

that's L-1

Pps I still don't like Luna, but her postings weren't as weak as I thought on the second read through. And there are a number of other slots that really haven't done much either. Probably a coasting wolf somewhere in the game, but I'm really not sure who it'd be.

shut the FUCK UP

don't discredit my reads

Well, I'm suspicious of Luna, but you also read me as wolf just now for a pretty dumb reason.

YOURE SUSPICIOUS OF LUNA YET YOU LYNCHED THE MOTHERFUCKING PERSON THAT LUNA JUST LYNCHED LIKE A WALK IN THE PARK

WHEN THE NEXT DAY PHASE STARTS YOUR ASS IS GRASS

I'm suspicious of Luna yet I'm also suspicious of karnos, and reading the thread and the back and forth makes more more suspicious of karnos than Luna. This is scum-indicative because _______?

This is your whole Luna vs. Karnos argument and I might have missed something there. I think out of all votes on karnos yours had the least depth in it. But you're right in that you didn't sheep Luna Fox. I just thought that your vote coming right after Luna's was super weird after you were sus of her.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt Maria, I'd been back and forth but was pinged a but by her. IIRC it was her knowledge of being scum read when she said she hadn't actually read that was a notable ping, it read to me like she'd seen rosske bitching about it in wolf chat without having the actual thread knowledge to justify it. I think there was something else too but I don't remember off the top of my head. I remember being pretty confident about it being her or tenshii though.

Fwiw I also didn't expect her self hammer; I might have actually hopped onto tenshii and hammered there before deadline.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt the vote, it came after I'd read it in more detail. I think I quoted it later on, but there seemed to be an attitude of not liking walls so I didn't think it helped to dump a big wall on the board.

[mhsmith0]

See
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8168308

[Transcend]

Yea okay fair enough I'm not a big fan of walls. I also lied. KTS' vote was the most meatless. But it was the nail in the coffin so I had an extremely hard time thinking that he could be scum.

[Transcend]

Anyways FMPOV: karnos was bussed by his partner.

This points to mhsmith being wolf because his vote and tunnel were over all softer and possibly less genuine than Giga. However his answer to my question stated he was "w/e" with the lynch as he claims he was about a 7 in confidence.

Now it could also point to Giga because no one can be 100% certain that a wolf is wolf unless they are actually wolf. Being a 10 that someone was scum sounds incredibly risky. Also mhsmith brought up a point that Giga could've voted karnos and then Io and Thor dumped on him so him unvoting would be inconsistent. He might've had no point of return.

I think that's enough analysis of the karnos bw because it's mostly inconclusive for me and both of you bussing is plausible. Gun to head if I were lynching off of this I'd probably choose mhsmith.

[mhsmith0]

I'd also note that 614 did explain the reasons pretty clearly, I just didn't provide a bunch of citations and quote snippets. But those were the reasons, and i thought they were pretty clear. Not a slam dunk case, but pretty good for d1 with a pretty reasonable chance of hitting a goon.

Ps http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8154705 was Luna basically saying that my assessment of her, which I made off the bat, was basically valid, just wrong.

Pps you can also read some of my ther posts around the time I voted talking about karnos, including
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8157372
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8157378
Etc.

I thought my reasons given were pretty clear and reasonably compelling.

[Transcend]

Anyways both of your answers to all my inquiries feel very good and consistent thus far. This will be a toughie to figure out, but I am determined.

[mhsmith0]

I'd also say that I'm basically never completely confident in a d1 lynch, in part because I've gotten them wrong enough in the past to know better. But yeah karnos was nicely >rand wolf IMO.

[Transcend]

For me I'm either dead wrong in the beginning of the game and figure out stuff later on, or I'm dead on initially and then I waffle and 180 and flop.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.

*brings up possible scum theater*
*thread dies*

Umm.........

Fwiw this was probably a good example of where I was at wrt karnos flip. Thinking he was likely a wolf, but not really sure. I also did think that was a pretty funny moment, scum theater between those two there would have been an awesome way to try and scam the board.

[Transcend]

It's usually the former though.

Good reads initially, terrible reads later on: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=67015

I pounced ploben d1 but Zyf was playing extremely good scum and I just might've lost to him if he didn't scumslip.

Horrible reads initially, good reads later on: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=67016

I had Mirhawk and Airick as town and they both flipped scum. However, I was the only one to sus Almost50 when he made a gambit that nearly cleared him.

[Transcend]

Yeah okay smith your vote on k looks a bit less meatless than I had originally thought, but I think it could still possibly be a bus.

[Transcend]

BTW all 3 of us have sworn today when the mod doesn't like it. Lol.

[mhsmith0]

I can't prove it wasn't a bus, but I don't think here was anything there that seemed especially bus-like beyond "he could have been bussing". Does anything look like bussing to you beyond "well it could have been"?

[mhsmith0]

BTW all 3 of us have sworn today when the mod doesn't like it. Lol.

^ things I find goddamn amusing

[Transcend]

I can't prove it wasn't a bus, but I don't think here was anything there that seemed especially bus-like beyond "he could have been bussing". Does anything look like bussing to you beyond "well it could have been"?

No, not anymore. I felt more inclined to believe your vote was a bus but then you defended yourself and I rather like it.

But that's the same thing for Giga.

I know one of you bussed but I just have no idea and it's plausible for you both to have bussed so the bus on karnos is not going to factor who I ultimately vote.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, this isn't an easy game. Wrt karnos it was an early bus (giga), a late bus (me), or an attempt to save him (you). I know it wasn't a late bus, but it isn't obvious which if the others it was. Re-reading d1 AGAIN will be super fun...