Newbie 1742 Earth - Game Over


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Post Post #200 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:55 am

Post by PenguinPower »

Scum is in {Huntress, Scarlet, Accountant, Biostar}

I'm thinking {Huntress, Scarlet}

I'm feeling {Accountant, Biostar}

I would prefer a Huntress/Scarlet lynch today. If either flips town, I want an Accountant lynch tomorrow.
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Post Post #201 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:16 am

Post by hinanawiscarlet »

I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.
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Post Post #202 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:40 am

Post by PenguinPower »

Haha...I just noticed it autocorrected.

Biostar = BlackVoid.
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Post Post #203 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:23 am

Post by Shadowlancerx »

In post 200, PenguinPower wrote:Scum is in {Huntress, Scarlet, Accountant, Biostar}

I'm thinking {Huntress, Scarlet}

I'm feeling {Accountant, Biostar}

I would prefer a Huntress/Scarlet lynch today. If either flips town, I want an Accountant lynch tomorrow.
I agree that Huntress Scarlet makes the most sense based on reads thus far. I honestly don't see being this wrong about accountant, but I can't be sure.
I do think, based on everything so far, that we would be better off betting on the Huntress/Scarlet team and moving forward with that today and reevaluating tomorrow if things go wrong (not likely).
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Post Post #204 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:26 am

Post by Shadowlancerx »

In post 201, hinanawiscarlet wrote:I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.
So with lynch pressure on Huntress, you step in with a scum gambit move here? I feel like you're trying to trip us up when we are this close...
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Post Post #205 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:56 am

Post by PenguinPower »

Also, wondering why Accountant hasn't said anything about pre-flip associations being bad. That seems to be standard fair.
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Post Post #206 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:02 pm

Post by hinanawiscarlet »

I feel like the scum is sacrificing one of their member to paint me as a scum. My gambit has nothing to do with the lynch pressure on Huntress.
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Post Post #207 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:24 pm

Post by Shadowlancerx »

Penguin, what do you make of scarlet's move here? He's on your lynch list anyway, does that change your thought process or, is it just a gambit? If I'm thinking out loud, is it possible hunt is a roleblocker and scarlet is falling on the sword here...
My gut tells me to hold strong for Huntress, but as you're my strongest town read right now, I'd like to get your thoughts too.
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Post Post #208 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:32 pm

Post by PenguinPower »

Why am I your strongest townread?
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Post Post #209 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:52 pm

Post by Shadowlancerx »

In post 208, PenguinPower wrote:Why am I your strongest townread?
I read through your scum game that just ended, and you'd have to be a wizard be scum there and here with how you've reacted.
I have had a strong town read on accountant most of this game, but there is that small nag that he could be leading us all on.
Icy is pretty strong town at this point, but I can't rule out the possibility that he is really amazing at arguing his case.
Void has high content posts, but not a lot of them, so it's a little harder for me to read him.
Huntress and scarlet have the strongest feel of a scum team, combined with both of them being more on the lurker side.

I know I'm not good at this yet, that's why I'm asking for your thoughts, it's why I've asked for the thoughts of my strong town reads most of this game. I want to succeed, I want to get it right.
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Post Post #210 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:00 pm

Post by hinanawiscarlet »

Ho hum, I just took a shower and I realized by math is wrong. Disregard the last post about the reasoning of my gambit.

Even if Huntress and I were scumbuddies, why would I take Huntress' place to be lynched? No matter who got lynched, the number of the scum would be one, with town outnumbering them.

And if you think that Huntress is town and I'm scum, why would I interfere with the vote number? He's got 2 votes.
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Post Post #211 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:33 pm

Post by PenguinPower »

In post 207, Shadowlancerx wrote:is it possible hunt is a roleblocker
Why do you think this?
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Post Post #212 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:33 pm

Post by Shadowlancerx »

In post 211, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 207, Shadowlancerx wrote:is it possible hunt is a roleblocker
Why do you think this?
Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.
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Post Post #213 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:39 pm

Post by PenguinPower »

In post 212, Shadowlancerx wrote:Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.
But, why that specific role?
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Post Post #214 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:46 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Votecount 2.03Image

Huntress (3)
, , ,
Accountant (1)
,
Not Voting (3)
, , ,


Deadline is on Saturday, October 8th: (expired on 2016-10-08 16:00:00)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch!
[/size]
Show
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #215 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:48 pm

Post by PenguinPower »

UNVOTE:

I want to hear more.
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Post Post #216 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:32 pm

Post by Shadowlancerx »

In post 215, PenguinPower wrote:UNVOTE:

I want to hear more.
So if I'm reading the chart right, there are set possible combinations of setups. Right now, we have only vanilla flips, so literally any combination on the chart is possible. So I took a look at the chart, and Mafia role blocker is the only power role that could be Mafia based.
So in the context of speculating on why Scarlet is offering a self lynch, I tried to come up with a scenario where that might make sense. Am I missing something that makes that not realistic?
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Post Post #217 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:00 pm

Post by Huntress »

@ Accountant:
You didn't answer my question in .
In post 167, Accountant wrote:No. I have a bad feeling about this. We aren't lynching until I have more from scarlet and Huntress. The jump onto Icy feels fishy.
What seems fishy about it? Apart from the way you exaggerated the strength of the case?
In post 171, Accountant wrote:When someone derphammers town, scum's first instinct is to kick back and let town rip itself apart. Especially with the wagon on Icy. The only place I could be wrong is BlackVoid, but we have one mislynch so if we just lynch Huntress and Scarlet
we're confirmed a win
.
Setting up lynches in advance? The only way you could be confirmed a win from that is if you are scum and know that Scarlet and I are both town. Or if Scarlet is your partner a mislynch on me would give you an excuse not to follow through with that plan in lylo and to lynch another townie for the win.

In post 189, BlackVoid wrote:... she forgets the initial Penguin push
Not forgotten. I was satisfied with the tone of his replies so moved on.

In post 201, hinanawiscarlet wrote:I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.
Why does it follow that you being town means that Accountant is scum?


My strongest scumread is Accountant.

Vote: Accountant
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Post Post #218 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:28 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

@Huntress, are you arguing that Accountant and Scarlet are partnered? Who are your other scumreads?

@Accountant, I'm down with lynching Scarlet.
In post 194, PenguinPower wrote:I suspect everyone, that's why I'm asking questions. Did I strongly suspect he was scum? Well...did I put my vote down?
Up until this point you voted for Huntress, the only person you were asking questions of was Icy.
In post 196, hinanawiscarlet wrote:Is the chance of him being an accidentally hammering scum high? One thing I learn from probability class is that it's almost always not worth it to pursue something with low chance
If he hammered accidentally, then his alignment has nothing to do with it. I don't follow this argument at all.

Scarlet's jump to ask himself to be lynched after the consensus turned towards him and Huntress is odd. It seems like he saw Shadowlancer get a ton of towncred for an L-1 self-vote and decided to pull a similar gambit. Part of the reason I want to lynch here is that I have trouble seeing a scumteam that doesn't contain Scarlet.

VOTE: hinanawiscarlet
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Post Post #219 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:48 pm

Post by hinanawiscarlet »

@BlackVoid: "Why are you discounting that Penguin could be scum that hammered accidentally?"
That was your question. you specifically mentioned scum. As such, I thought his alignment is what's important.

@Shadowlancer: If you think that I'm scum, it won't make sense for the reasons I mentioned above

@Huntress: it seems that Accountant seems to be pushing the case against me a bit too hard. There's a margin of error tho.
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Post Post #220 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:58 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

No, you said that you believed Penguin voted accidentally. When I asked what your read on him was, you said town because you don't think he would hammer on purpose as scum. I'm asking why you are not considering the possibility that he's scum but hammered by accident. Then you started talking about how it was a low probability. That doesn't make any sense to me. If he hammered accidentally, then there's nothing about the hammer that can be used to gauge his alignment. Yet, you called him town for hammering.
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Post Post #221 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:17 pm

Post by hinanawiscarlet »

I not only infer his alignment from that, but from Accountant's post. I don't believe that he would lie at that, seeing that meta is an easily proved thing
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Post Post #222 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:53 pm

Post by Accountant »

Huntress OMGUS is a scum claim. Lynch this.

Gladiate: Huntress
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #223 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:54 pm

Post by Accountant »

Huntress is the only scum I'm 100% absolutely sure of. Vote her or me, pick your side.
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #224 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:54 pm

Post by Accountant »

If Huntress flips town, I want everyone to lynch me tomorrow.
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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