Newbie 1742 Earth - Game Over

[PenguinPower]

Scum is in {Huntress, Scarlet, Accountant, Biostar}

I'm thinking {Huntress, Scarlet}

I'm feeling {Accountant, Biostar}

I would prefer a Huntress/Scarlet lynch today. If either flips town, I want an Accountant lynch tomorrow.

[hinanawiscarlet]

I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.

[PenguinPower]

Haha...I just noticed it autocorrected.

Biostar = BlackVoid.

[Shadowlancerx]

Scum is in {Huntress, Scarlet, Accountant, Biostar}

I'm thinking {Huntress, Scarlet}

I'm feeling {Accountant, Biostar}

I would prefer a Huntress/Scarlet lynch today. If either flips town, I want an Accountant lynch tomorrow.

I agree that Huntress Scarlet makes the most sense based on reads thus far. I honestly don't see being this wrong about accountant, but I can't be sure.
I do think, based on everything so far, that we would be better off betting on the Huntress/Scarlet team and moving forward with that today and reevaluating tomorrow if things go wrong (not likely).

[Shadowlancerx]

I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.

So with lynch pressure on Huntress, you step in with a scum gambit move here? I feel like you're trying to trip us up when we are this close...

[PenguinPower]

Also, wondering why Accountant hasn't said anything about pre-flip associations being bad. That seems to be standard fair.

[hinanawiscarlet]

I feel like the scum is sacrificing one of their member to paint me as a scum. My gambit has nothing to do with the lynch pressure on Huntress.

[Shadowlancerx]

Penguin, what do you make of scarlet's move here? He's on your lynch list anyway, does that change your thought process or, is it just a gambit? If I'm thinking out loud, is it possible hunt is a roleblocker and scarlet is falling on the sword here...
My gut tells me to hold strong for Huntress, but as you're my strongest town read right now, I'd like to get your thoughts too.

[PenguinPower]

Why am I your strongest townread?

[Shadowlancerx]

Why am I your strongest townread?

I read through your scum game that just ended, and you'd have to be a wizard be scum there and here with how you've reacted.
I have had a strong town read on accountant most of this game, but there is that small nag that he could be leading us all on.
Icy is pretty strong town at this point, but I can't rule out the possibility that he is really amazing at arguing his case.
Void has high content posts, but not a lot of them, so it's a little harder for me to read him.
Huntress and scarlet have the strongest feel of a scum team, combined with both of them being more on the lurker side.

I know I'm not good at this yet, that's why I'm asking for your thoughts, it's why I've asked for the thoughts of my strong town reads most of this game. I want to succeed, I want to get it right.

[hinanawiscarlet]

Ho hum, I just took a shower and I realized by math is wrong. Disregard the last post about the reasoning of my gambit.

Even if Huntress and I were scumbuddies, why would I take Huntress' place to be lynched? No matter who got lynched, the number of the scum would be one, with town outnumbering them.

And if you think that Huntress is town and I'm scum, why would I interfere with the vote number? He's got 2 votes.

[PenguinPower]

is it possible hunt is a roleblocker

Why do you think this?

[Shadowlancerx]

is it possible hunt is a roleblocker

Why do you think this?

Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.

[PenguinPower]

Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.

But, why that specific role?

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.03

Huntress (3)

PenguinPower , Accountant , Shadowlancerx ,

Accountant (1)

Icy ,

Not Voting (3)

BlackVoid , hinanawiscarlet , Huntress ,

Deadline is on Saturday, October 8th: (expired on 2016-10-08 16:00:00)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[PenguinPower]

UNVOTE:

I want to hear more.

[Shadowlancerx]

UNVOTE:

I want to hear more.

So if I'm reading the chart right, there are set possible combinations of setups. Right now, we have only vanilla flips, so literally any combination on the chart is possible. So I took a look at the chart, and Mafia role blocker is the only power role that could be Mafia based.
So in the context of speculating on why Scarlet is offering a self lynch, I tried to come up with a scenario where that might make sense. Am I missing something that makes that not realistic?

[Huntress]

@ Accountant:

You didn't answer my question in 118.

No. I have a bad feeling about this. We aren't lynching until I have more from scarlet and Huntress. The jump onto Icy feels fishy.

What seems fishy about it? Apart from the way you exaggerated the strength of the case?

When someone derphammers town, scum's first instinct is to kick back and let town rip itself apart. Especially with the wagon on Icy. The only place I could be wrong is BlackVoid, but we have one mislynch so if we just lynch Huntress and Scarlet

we're confirmed a win

.

Setting up lynches in advance? The only way you could be confirmed a win from that is if you are scum and know that Scarlet and I are both town. Or if Scarlet is your partner a mislynch on me would give you an excuse not to follow through with that plan in lylo and to lynch another townie for the win.

... she forgets the initial Penguin push

Not forgotten. I was satisfied with the tone of his replies so moved on.

I propose that right here, right now, to lynch me and see what I would flip. If I happen to flip a town, it's likely that Accountant is a scum in disguise.

Why does it follow that you being town means that Accountant is scum?


My strongest scumread is Accountant.

Vote: Accountant

[BlackVoid]

@Huntress, are you arguing that Accountant and Scarlet are partnered? Who are your other scumreads?

@Accountant, I'm down with lynching Scarlet.

I suspect everyone, that's why I'm asking questions. Did I strongly suspect he was scum? Well...did I put my vote down?

Up until this point you voted for Huntress, the only person you were asking questions of was Icy.

Is the chance of him being an accidentally hammering scum high? One thing I learn from probability class is that it's almost always not worth it to pursue something with low chance

If he hammered accidentally, then his alignment has nothing to do with it. I don't follow this argument at all.

Scarlet's jump to ask himself to be lynched after the consensus turned towards him and Huntress is odd. It seems like he saw Shadowlancer get a ton of towncred for an L-1 self-vote and decided to pull a similar gambit. Part of the reason I want to lynch here is that I have trouble seeing a scumteam that doesn't contain Scarlet.

VOTE: hinanawiscarlet

[hinanawiscarlet]

@BlackVoid: "Why are you discounting that Penguin could be scum that hammered accidentally?"
That was your question. you specifically mentioned scum. As such, I thought his alignment is what's important.

@Shadowlancer: If you think that I'm scum, it won't make sense for the reasons I mentioned above

@Huntress: it seems that Accountant seems to be pushing the case against me a bit too hard. There's a margin of error tho.

[BlackVoid]

No, you said that you believed Penguin voted accidentally. When I asked what your read on him was, you said town because you don't think he would hammer on purpose as scum. I'm asking why you are not considering the possibility that he's scum but hammered by accident. Then you started talking about how it was a low probability. That doesn't make any sense to me. If he hammered accidentally, then there's nothing about the hammer that can be used to gauge his alignment. Yet, you called him town for hammering.

[hinanawiscarlet]

I not only infer his alignment from that, but from Accountant's post. I don't believe that he would lie at that, seeing that meta is an easily proved thing

[Accountant]

Huntress OMGUS is a scum claim. Lynch this.

Gladiate: Huntress

[Accountant]

Huntress is the only scum I'm 100% absolutely sure of. Vote her or me, pick your side.

[Accountant]

If Huntress flips town, I want everyone to lynch me tomorrow.