Ok, first things first:
@Mod: Due to a holiday, I will be on vacation with very limited to no access from friday october 7th till the evening of tuesday october 11th (european time)
@Everyone else: that means I might not be able to post before deadline once my vacation starts.
Sorry for taking so long to post this. I find it difficult to motivate me to do work in a game when there is a risk I'll be nightkilled, so I kind of put of the last part of my reread until a couple of hours ago. It's now past 1.30 am, but I've completed my reread and want to post my thoughts today.
Nero is obvtown, thor's replacement almost certainly protected him after he's proven vig.
During day 2, blitz was pushing Giga hard, even when it became clear that blitz would be the other wagon of that day. I just don't see a scumteam of giga/blitz making that play. Bussing is fine if it gives towncred, but bussing to the extend that it makes a townlynch essentially impossible? Extremely unlikely. I'm considering giga town.
kraska's consistent blitz push during day 2, as well as her defense of giga, speaks strongly in her favour. Another positive point in her favour is giga's belief that she's not playing to her scum meta. There are two negative points: she was defending shadow throughout day 2, and her flipflopping between Karnos and Shadow during day 3 might have been testing if a karnos mislynch was possible that day. The points in favour of her being town seen stronger at the moment, but I'm still not fully convinced. Nero, what are your thoughts on Kraska?
Karnos has been completely tunnelvisioned on giga throughout day 2 and 3. He was fighting the wagons of shadow day 2 (post #1500), and the blitz wagon throughout day 2. Only at the very end of the day was he willing to reluctantly switch to blitz. Throughout day 3, it's the same story: he's pushing giga, and only switches to shadow when there's effectively a guilty. Basically, the only thing that speaks in his favour is the way shadow attacked him at the beginning of day 3 (no, he didn't seem a viable lynch day 2 to me).
Elyse is worse, though. Her position on the blitz wagon is exactly where I expect bussing scum to be: joining the wagon after it already gained substantial moment, on weak reasoning that can be abandoned when a good opportunity arises. Then during day 3, she was fighting the massclaim which revealed nero's guilty on shadow, heavily pushing for a karnos lynch instead. I'm currently inclined to suspect her most.
One question: I'm not familiar with shadows meta, but do you feel that he's more likely to fake an innocent on a partner (Elyse/Kraska) or ignore his partner in his investigations (Karnos)?
Nero Cain wrote:I've been having doubts. Like, idk I still feel like his early game was a bit wonky and I wouldn't put it past him to go "look I'm RVSing scum so I can't be scum!" Sometimes, I think players play pro-town as scum and play like shit as town. I mean when Michel and I played in viewtopic.php?f=53&t=67506 he spent the whole game lynching town and never ONCE did he go back and reasscess. So why does he do that here? Why is a scum flip cause for a reassessment but not a town flip?
The reason I didn't reassess in that game is simple: I concluded that iranoa and gerry were town, and that zap was likely town as well. That left BigYoshiFan, you and maria as the possible scum. BYF townflip didn't contradict that view, so there was no need to reassess.
In this game, on the other hand, blitz scum flip did contradict my previous belief that giga was scum, as the way blitz attacked giga was unlikely to come from scumbuddies. This forced me to rethink.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
