Newbie 1742 Earth - Game Over

[Accountant]

This feels like reverse psychology, almost put here so that you could say later "why would scumAccountant say this?"

Except that's not what I said, Shadow. I told everyone that I retract the statement and that I was lying out my ass when I said I would let town lynch me - because I'm not going to let town outright lose just because I was wrong about Huntress.

[Accountant]

The two things that bother me the most are your move off me, and this quote.

This is a game of numbers. If any townee agreed with Accountant (which I did) and Scum nightkilled player C that would leave one less possible scum player. The longer the game goes the worse it gets for the scum team.

The smart night kill was one of those two players.

By the way, this is an argument for town!Accountant being bad and telling the scum players who to kill, because it presumes that scum are killing people based on how much they're being townread; of course for this line of logic to make sense, the person doing the townreading(ie. me) has to be town themselves.

I thought you were scumreading me, Icy.

Do you subconsciously know I'm not a member of the scumteam?

Penguin mentioned town credit, but that only works if I'm night killed. (likely your plan when you moved off me) Given my late game support of you it's likely you went after someone who was unsure of you instead. I can't think of any other reason for you to walk away from me.

Your quote above is also troubling. If I were Scum I'd know your alliance. That was a Scum slip.

I understand why you think scum Accountant would do this, but there are also reasons for town Accountant to do this - specifically, that town Accountant believes you are town and no longer wants to vote you.

I don't understand why you assumed it was scum Accountant than town Accountant, since it could be from both.

[Accountant]

Oh, and that's not a scumslip. I said "subconsciously" to imply that you were scum who subconsciously "knew"(without consciously doing it) that I was town and inadvertently let that fact color your words.

And that's not just a scum lie perpetrated by me; PP also said that was his interpretation of the line.

[Icy]

If town Accountant said that then she truly believed I was a town, yet her vote remained on me for another 24 hrs.

Look Accountant, you voted Bliss, you voted Huntress, and you spend 4 days hounding me. Your either Scum, or a townee having a VERY bad game.

[Accountant]

I was wrong, okay? It was just gut at first. I reread Accountant's posts and I decided to vote Huntress.

Now that I know that Huntress is town, scumread Accountant again. He feels like directing the lynch.

Also, since this is lylo, I think it's time to claim the power town role. Is it jailkeeper or tracker?

This post makes me uneasy. I don't know whether it's good to get a claim here or not, there are way too many variables in play, but you're suggesting it without any reasoning to back it up?

Claim is optimal.

Jailkeeper is useless since if he manages to stop a kill it becomes 3-1, optimal strategy then is to No Lynch and let scum kill, which comes down to the same thing anyway. Not only that, claiming as Jailkeeper confirms a townie(1/3 less chance of losing) OR narrows down the vote to 2 players if counterclaimed(normal 3/5 -> 6/10 minus 1/2 -> 5/10 = 1/10 less chance of losing).

Tracker should claim as well. It has the same benefit as Jailkeeper in terms of stopping losses, and it has no utility at night because Tracker results are of very little use on Day Four, where scum have no reason not to make up anything they think they can get away with(if they fakeclaim Tracker it narrows to 2 players, which is exactly the same as no fakeclaim).

tl;dr - claim.

IC can't lie about game theory

[Accountant]

If town Accountant said that then she truly believed I was a town, yet her vote remained on me for another 24 hrs.

Look Accountant, you voted Bliss, you voted Huntress, and you spend 4 days hounding me. Your either Scum, or a townee having a VERY bad game.

I'm a townie having a very bad game.

[Icy]

Oh, and that's not a scumslip. I said "subconsciously" to imply that you were scum who subconsciously "knew"(without consciously doing it) that I was town and inadvertently let that fact color your words.

And that's not just a scum lie perpetrated by me; PP also said that was his interpretation of the line.

So does your subconscious still think that Huntress is Scum. Regardless of how you or Penguin read it, the statement bothers me.

[Accountant]

Oh, and that's not a scumslip. I said "subconsciously" to imply that you were scum who subconsciously "knew"(without consciously doing it) that I was town and inadvertently let that fact color your words.

And that's not just a scum lie perpetrated by me; PP also said that was his interpretation of the line.

So does your subconscious still think that Huntress is Scum. Regardless of how you or Penguin read it, the statement bothers me.

No. My subconscious has nothing to do with this! I was accusing YOUR subconscious of knowing I was town.

[Accountant]

I'm going to repeat something I said in another game(I was the mod and a tense LyLo had just ended in a scum win). "LyLo is the ultimate test of who you can trust and who you can not trust". My game theory explanation of the power of a single confirmed townie is proof of that.

So I'm going to ask everyone here if they trust Icy. I trust Icy because a mafia has no reason to try to stop the Huntress-Accountant wagon since both are town. Do you?

If we can all agree to trust and confirm Icy as town and town PR claims, that turns us from 3/5 chance of mislynching to 1/5 chance of mislynching.

[Icy]

Point is subconscious has no play in Scums mind, they know all players alignments.

[Accountant]

Point is subconscious has no play in Scums mind, they know all players alignments.

They do, but they are not consciously thinking of this when they make posts. They are pretending to be clueless.

[Icy]

Two things:

I) It would help me if you would use the IC color when making IC posts.

2) How do we trust a PR claim?

[Accountant]

Actually, I think Mina banned IC colors. I use red for my first post to make it stand out, but that's it.

If a PR claims and is scum, the real PR would of course counter-claim. Then we lynch between those two, narrowing down our options to a smaller pool.

[BlackVoid]

So I'm going to ask everyone here if they trust Icy. I trust Icy because a mafia has no reason to try to stop the Huntress-Accountant wagon since both are town. Do you?

You're kidding, right? Mafia defending or whiteknighting town is pretty standard where I played. Typical reasons include getting that townie on your side if they avoid the lynch, and some sort of towncred for being "right" if the townie does get lynched.

I haven't ruled anyone out. The PR should claim. If they are uncounterclaimed, that's one confirmed town. If the are counterclaimed, we narrow down our choices. That'll make it a lot easier to analyze interactions.

[Accountant]

@BlackVoid: Mafia has incentive to sit back and raise their eyebrows and go "this doesn't look right" but not actually do anything to stop it vs Icy trying to counterwagon on PP

[Shadowlancerx]

I was wrong, okay? It was just gut at first. I reread Accountant's posts and I decided to vote Huntress.

Now that I know that Huntress is town, scumread Accountant again. He feels like directing the lynch.

Also, since this is lylo, I think it's time to claim the power town role. Is it jailkeeper or tracker?

This post makes me uneasy. I don't know whether it's good to get a claim here or not, there are way too many variables in play, but you're suggesting it without any reasoning to back it up?

Claim is optimal.

Jailkeeper is useless since if he manages to stop a kill it becomes 3-1, optimal strategy then is to No Lynch and let scum kill, which comes down to the same thing anyway. Not only that, claiming as Jailkeeper confirms a townie(1/3 less chance of losing) OR narrows down the vote to 2 players if counterclaimed(normal 3/5 -> 6/10 minus 1/2 -> 5/10 = 1/10 less chance of losing).

Tracker should claim as well. It has the same benefit as Jailkeeper in terms of stopping losses, and it has no utility at night because Tracker results are of very little use on Day Four, where scum have no reason not to make up anything they think they can get away with(if they fakeclaim Tracker it narrows to 2 players, which is exactly the same as no fakeclaim).

tl;dr - claim.

IC can't lie about game theory

Okay, now that I can see the math, I'm in favor of a claim.

[Icy]

So everyone agrees I should claim, I'm the

Town Tracker

[BlackVoid]

Who did you track each night?

[BlackVoid]

Also, I think everyone should claim. If no one counterclaims, we have a confirmed town.

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

I have a few other thoughts to post when I get a break. First instinct is I think he's telling the truth. Assuming Icy is indeed town, from my pov, it leaves two scum between

Scarlet, Accountant, and Shadowlancer

. I was reading the latter two as town so I've been wrong somewhere. I'll re-read the game and try to figure out which pair fits best.

[Shadowlancerx]

I am also Vanilla town.

[Shadowlancerx]

So scum is somewhere in Accountant-Balckvoid-Scarlet assuming no counterclaim.

[Shadowlancerx]

Accountant-Blackvoid
Blackvoid-Scarlet
Scarlet-Accountant

These are the pairs that we have. Of the three, I still think accountant is scum, but I don't think any pair is impossible.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.01

Not voting (5)

BlackVoid, hinanawiscarlet, Icy, Shadowlancerx, Accountant

Deadline is on Monday, October 17th: (expired on 2016-10-17 20:00:00)

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch!

[/size]

[hinanawiscarlet]

Vanilla town

So scum is somewhere in Accountant-Balckvoid-Scarlet assuming no counterclaim.

Let's assume I'm scum, why should I kill PP who townreads me? The real scum probably thought that PP was an investigative role, therefore he was nightkilled.

Killing him would put me in a worse situation.

[Accountant]

I'm vanilla town as well. Icy is confirmed.

scarlet: Probably so you can say "if I was scum I wouldn't have killed PP, therefore I am not scum".

It's interesting that you think scum thought PP was investigative. Firstly, at the start of Night 2 town has NO WAY of knowing if the PR is a jailkeeper or tracker. But scum DOES have a way - if they know they have a roleblocker, they know for sure the last town is tracker. Are you scum who

subconsciously

knows that the PR is investigative before Icy revealed?

Because I thought PP was killed as he was the most experienced player bar me, and I was an obvious mislynch target. Why did YOU think that, scarlet?