Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[copper223]

@TC
Let's say I'm wrong about you but we are both right about Chaos, who do you think is his buddy?

[Huntress]

Vote Count 2.5

ChaosOmega (2) - Human Sequencer, SpyreX
Human Sequencer (1) - ChaosOmega
TownCop (1) - FrankJaeger

Not voting (3) - copper223, Toto, TownCop


With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Two is Sunday, 30th October 1pm GMT, (in (expired on 2016-10-30 13:00:00)).

Due to upcoming events, I'll be semi-V/LA from 30/10 to 4/11

. During that period, I probably won't post much (unless something significant happens) but I'll still read up.
As a side note, activity will probably decrease up to 30/10, although I will try my best to stay active up until then.

Noted.

[TownCop]

The most fundamental rule of bussing is not to bus.

Nope, I invite everyone to read up and see how many questions you asked him today before and after I said I thought it was a soft buss.

Well, for a matter-of-fact I asked 1 question after #616. I invite you to quote and compare.

[TownCop]

@TC
Let's say I'm wrong about you but we are both right about Chaos, who do you think is his buddy?

Frank's the second scummiest person so far (albeit I still don't have a strong scum read on him)- he also needs to be more active (and he needs to respond to my later posts).
I think I've already explained part of my reasons in posts before.

I'm pretty confident of my strong town reads though: HS, Toto, and to

some

extent you. Through PoE, Spyre's probably the remaining one if it's not Frank.

[copper223]

And doesn't it concern you that by PoE you are ending up on another player that is willing to vote Chaos and the IC, who in this world decided to buss his SE partner from the start of D1 and has to then manage somehow to justify being alive in a 3 Lylo, and this before he knew the setup and whether someone could check him?

[copper223]

Chaos Spyre is not a thing. If I am wrong and this was some sort of planned strategy I'll be asking them for lessons after the game.

[ChaosOmega]

Received prod, busy this weekend, V/LA until Monday.

[FrankJaeger]

Stopping in, my daughters bday weekend so short on time.
CT im voting you because of your D1 voting patterns, and your flip has 2 things going for town.
1. Youre probably scum, and
2. your slot is the most informative flip, from my perspective.

I've made my read and vote,very transparent.

[FrankJaeger]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

[FrankJaeger]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

[copper223]

That's all speculation.

The odds of scum being 2 newbies are higher because there are more newbies in a given game, not much else to infer and it doesn't mean anything compared to actually reading players.

Spyre's Gideon defense is why he is more likely town and definitely not a good D2 lynch, if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

The latest posts makes me think it's just Frank and Chaos after all.

[Toto]

Spyre brought up the CC thing when Gideon claimed VT. That was probably the strongest thing he did to defend him. However, it was technically wrong. But (1) still doesn't matter because he was defending him and (2) I don't think he did it on purpose because he can not lie about those things.

He also started voting Jason since then, and brought up good reasons why he is scum already when the Gideon wagon was forming. I think Spy is town if Chaos is scum. He may also be town if he is not but I will also jump to the drawing board in that case.

If he was busing Chaos then, it's a damn good bus.

[TownCop]

And doesn't it concern you that by PoE you are ending up on another player that is willing to vote Chaos and the IC, who in this world decided to buss his SE partner from the start of D1 and has to then manage somehow to justify being alive in a 3 Lylo, and this before he knew the setup and whether someone could check him?

It could be WIFOM but I won't get into it - it'll just confuse all of us.

I don't think Frank's

really

willing to vote Chaos (despite his read), he seems to be trying very hard to redirect the bw and in doing so not seem too scummy.

[TownCop]

Stopping in, my daughters bday weekend so short on time.
CT im voting you because of your D1 voting patterns, and your flip has 2 things going for town.
1. Youre probably scum, and
2. your slot is the most informative flip, from my perspective.

I've made my read and vote,very transparent.

So, can you explain exactly what part of my voting patterns? And are there

any

other reasons?

No, lynches that are made solely for informative purposes especially when a ML results in lylo are generally not good for town, and considering that you have provided little suitable reason for your read on me, you are practically suggesting an "solely informative lynch". In fact, my lynch is not even that informative when compared to {Frank, Spyre (to some extent), Chaos}. Your lynch is informative because if you flip scum we know the other is probably chaos, but if you flip town, we'd have to start rereading into {HS, Toto, Copper}. Chaos' lynch is also very informative, yet your are trying very hard to "redirect" the BW from him to me, despite your reads of him, and use the excuse of "information".

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

Again, you express your read of me far more than you explain it (It's even selectively lurking in some bits - I know that a lot of stuff has happened recently for you, but when you did post it often ignored some of my points).

I don't think the odds matter and I don't get your point about them either, but since you wanted them:

2 Newbie = 6/9 * 5/8
= 30/72

2 SE/IC = 3/9 * 2/8
= 6/72

SE or IC/Newbie = 3/9 * 6/8 + 6/9 * 3*8
= 36/72

So... as you can see, the difference between 2 Newbies and SE/Newbie is pretty much negligible, considering the fact that reads are much more important than small differences in probability. Even if you were to take anything from it, it would be that Spyre-Chaos is unlikely.

To answer your question, considering I know I'm town, I'd say 1 in the wagon. Your reasoning of Spyre is strange, can you elaborate?

[TownCop]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

And exactly what is he getting off?

You seem to be reusing and "piggybacking" off some of my points about Spyre, except extending them to unrealistic lengths. I said there's the possibility that Spyre's not town, and that's true, but then you decide to explain that that somehow the possibility that he's not town makes him scum (even though he was

off

the wagon)??

[SpyreX]

I've got approaching 0 interest in a non chaos lynch today.

[Toto]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Why is TC the best pick if there was two in that wagon?

Why is Spy 100% scum if there was 1?

The only logical way to conclude 100% scum spy is if there was 0 scum in that wagon. Are you bussing Spy?

[FrankJaeger]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

And exactly what is he getting off?

You seem to be reusing and "piggybacking" off some of my points about Spyre, except extending them to unrealistic lengths. I said there's the possibility that Spyre's not town, and that's true, but then you decide to explain that that somehow the possibility that he's not town makes him scum (even though he was

off

the wagon)??

I just woke up.

Im not piggy backing anything. Check my initial catch up post.

I cant tell what you are trying to say about spyre here but I think he has been givin way too much credit for his D1 vote.

[FrankJaeger]

That's all speculation.

The odds of scum being 2 newbies are higher because there are more newbies in a given game, not much else to infer and it doesn't mean anything compared to actually reading players.

Spyre's Gideon defense is why he is more likely town and definitely not a good D2 lynch, if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

The latest posts makes me think it's just Frank and Chaos after all.

Jesus.
I DONT WANT TO LYNCH SPY TODAY. Just to be clear so lets not frame the convo that way.

I know there is a higher chance of both scum being noob.

TC is the best vote right now. Chaos is second. Lynch either and it will make D3 alot easier.

What is there more to say about Chaos? No, im not going to start tunneling him at this point like half the town. Im going to keep playing the game and looking at possibilities. I am fine with a Chaos lynch today.

[FrankJaeger]

^Edit: i know there is a higher chance of both scum being noob than two ICs. Im thinking its 1 and 1

[FrankJaeger]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

Again, you express your read of me far more than you explain it (It's even selectively lurking in some bits - I know that a lot of stuff has happened recently for you, but when you did post it often ignored some of my points).

I don't think the odds matter and I don't get your point about them either, but since you wanted them:

2 Newbie = 6/9 * 5/8
= 30/72

2 SE/IC = 3/9 * 2/8
= 6/72

SE or IC/Newbie = 3/9 * 6/8 + 6/9 * 3*8
= 36/72

So... as you can see, the difference between 2 Newbies and SE/Newbie is pretty much negligible, considering the fact that reads are much more important than small differences in probability. Even if you were to take anything from it, it would be that Spyre-Chaos is unlikely.

To answer your question, considering I know I'm town, I'd say 1 in the wagon. Your reasoning of Spyre is strange, can you elaborate?

Your math helps my case btw.

Its easy.
Look at D1 wagons.
Look at TC votes.
Look at who TC doesnt vote.
Look at when TC votes.

This is why you are best D2 lynch.
Chaos had a similar voting pattern. If town wants Chaos lynched im A OK with that.

Lol and Spy really isnt trying if hes town. Which sucks as he is one of our non noob players. I guess its a noob game so no big deal.

Lynch CT, Chaos today.
Is Chaos is green fucking lynch the fuck out of spy. If Chaos is red then its probably still CT

[FrankJaeger]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Why is TC the best pick if there was two in that wagon?

Why is Spy 100% scum if there was 1?

The only logical way to conclude 100% scum spy is if there was 0 scum in that wagon. Are you bussing Spy?

What.

[FrankJaeger]

Ok guys.

Look at TC. What does it mean if he flips red? Green?
Same for Chaos.
Who looks good? Who looks scummy?
TC will give the better reads, but Chaos flip will pretty much give us a good read on spy.

More info from TC lynch, but either of these guys should be lynched D2.

[FrankJaeger]

Chaos Spyre is not a thing. If I am wrong and this was some sort of planned strategy I'll be asking them for lessons after the game.

This is one thing I am certain on