Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[FrankJaeger]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

[Human Sequencer]

I've got approaching 0 interest in a non chaos lynch today.

Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

[copper223]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

I am not give scum a road-map to my reads depending on how someone we haven't even lynched flips.

If Chaos flips green and if Spyre is alive tomorrow he will be more suspicious than today for sure, but not in any way confirmed scum.

I'm going to collect TC's voting pattern and then you can explain to us why you think it's scum indicative.

[copper223]

copper223 (2) - TownCop, JasonWazza

Toto (3) - FrankJaeger, Gideon, TownCop

Gideon (1) - TownCop

Gideon (5) - TownCop, Human Sequencer, ChaosOmega, copper223, Toto [LYNCH]

Not voting (4) - ChaosOmega, FrankJaeger, Toto, TownCop

[copper223]

@Frank
Why do you find the above voting pattern scum indicative?

[FrankJaeger]

Vote Count 1.5

TownCop (4) - copper223, Toto, Human Sequencer, Gideon (L-1)
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
copper223 (1) - JasonWazza
Gideon (1) - TownCop

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

We dont have alot of concrete data, but votes dont lie.
This is a crucial wagon D1 because VLA has passed and scum had a great chance for a lynch.

If CT is town.

He wasnt lynched so Im thinking he is scum.

Who isnt on CTs wagon? Chaos,Spy, me. Then copper jumps on Gids wagon and we know the rest from there.

If CT is scum that would make Chaos,Spy,Me or maybe even copper his partner, just looking at this VC.

Lets look at the lynch wagon.

[FrankJaeger]

Vote Count 1.10

SmoothBlue (4) - Human Sequencer, JasonWazza, Gideon, copper223 [L-1]
Gideon (1) - TownCop
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger

Not voting (3) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

Wait lets study this. L-1 on a known town. Only reason not lynched is because of claim. I dont think TC wanted to hammer before the claim because he knows it would look terrible.

Whos on the wagon?

Human, Chaos, towngid, copper.

So just copper on both wagons.

[FrankJaeger]

Vote Count 1.13

Gideon (4) - TownCop, Human Sequencer, ChaosOmega, copper223 [L-1]
SmoothBlue (1) - Gideon
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
ChaosOmega (1) - SpyreX

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

TC still has vote parked. Human. Chaos. Copper. Totohammer.

So on the known town wagons- copper,chaos, and CT.
CT's wagon did not have chaos me or spy then copper jumps off at L-1.

Connect these dots it is PROBABLY CT and Chaos.
Looking at the associations after a green/red, CT gives the clearer perspective of who is scum.

If CT happens to be green it makes it easier on D3. If Chaos Flips green we will all have alot of trouble finding spys scum buddy.

[FrankJaeger]

Sorry, Human was on the known town wagons as well. But he voted for TC while the others didnt. So i think scumTC would clear Human. Green TC would mean human was on 3 town wagons.

[FrankJaeger]

So yeah heres my thinking. Still phone posting so I can make my sentences pretty.

[FrankJaeger]

I've got approaching 0 interest in a non chaos lynch today.

Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

?

[FrankJaeger]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

I am not give scum a road-map to my reads depending on how someone we haven't even lynched flips.

If Chaos flips green and if Spyre is alive tomorrow he will be more suspicious than today for sure, but not in any way confirmed scum.

I'm going to collect TC's voting pattern and then you can explain to us why you think it's scum indicative.

Im just confused by the logic that if chaos is green, and spy lives, we have to go back to the drawing board.

Its pretty clear spy is scum there but his partner is a complete guess.

[copper223]

@Frank
If scum know how we feel about every player depending on what Chaos flips they can pick which ones to leave alive to make it easier to win, especially if Chaos happens to be town, that's why I am not going into detail about my reads in that scenario.

As I said Spyre would be worth investigating tomorrow in that scenario, but claiming he has to be scum is a stretch.

[copper223]

I think Frank may be reading too much into voting patterns but I don't think he is making stuff up so I'm back to Chaos and TC.

[copper223]

I'd like some reads from Toto, what do you think of Frank and TC in these latest pages?

[SpyreX]

My instinctual read from this is it is chaos-frank. The setup for lynching tc under a town flip makes tomorrow easier is setting up for a lylo push on me.

I'm extremely confident on the chaos scum flip and a chaos scumflip here puts too many town in the townpile for a scum win.

Yes, I'm aware if I'm wrong that it's going to be pulling teeth to not get lynched for the loss, but I'm still totally willing to gamble on it.

[SpyreX]

Copper talk to me here i want to make sure I'm not paranoid. Cause that sure reads like tc mislynch 'for information' into a bad tomorrow.

[copper223]

@Spyre
If you weight voting patterns as heavily as he does and accept Frank's assumptions about the likely composition of the team (1 newbie 1 experienced) and the 1-1 split his reads kinda make sense.

I also find TC's voting patterns suspect (I'd say many of us have a bad pattern though considering what happened yesterday), he was hard 1v1nd by the doc and vote parked on him for most of the latter part of the day, after being part of Toto's failed early wagon, he also was on the same RVS vote as Jason which might also mean something.

The setup doesn't really work in my eyes because you're pushable only with a Chaos town flip and Frank explicitly builds that in his assumption of Spyre scum, if we were to lynch TC and he flips town at least some of us will likely think, damn I should have listened to Spyre, and I don't see how he plans to convert that into cred to lynch you.

[Toto]

@Copper.
What I'm reading is that if Frank is scum, he is probably not scum with Chaos. I can explain but it is based on what will be the optimal plays for Frank in the following days and this seems to be advantageous in that situation.

To be honest I'm not reading TC as scum either he seems to be focused on clarifying the attacks by Frank, and not actively scum-hunting which is a bad sign. This is somewhat scummy but I can also understand that Chaos is not really answering questions right now and we don't have more leads.

I'm still leaning scum on Chaos but want to wait for him to give his input in case he is green. We still have some time.

If Chaos flips green Frank has a lot to gain if scum by playing how he is today.

[copper223]

To be honest I'm not reading TC as scum either he seems to be focused on clarifying the attacks by Frank, and not actively scum-hunting which is a bad sign. This is somewhat scummy but I can also understand that Chaos is not really answering questions right now and we don't have more leads.

Yeah this is my problem with TC, it may be just like Toto said (and TC mentioned as well) that Chaos being MIA is just not helping TC game solve, but in general all the focus from TC seems to be on the wrong things (debunking reads he agrees with, defending himself, evaluating probabilities on scumteam compositions) where he does come off as a smart guy, but then ask him about who's scum and he comes out with pretty nebulous and unformed thoughts (like saying that Chaos Spyre may be a thing because of PoE based on how strong his town-reads are) and the two TC's don't match up well.

[Toto]

The setup doesn't really work in my eyes because you're pushable only with a Chaos town flip and Frank explicitly builds that in his assumption of Spyre scum, if we were to lynch TC and he flips town at least some of us will likely think, damn I should have listened to Spyre, and I don't see how he plans to convert that into cred to lynch you.

It helps if Chaos is not scum and we lose at Mylo.

[FrankJaeger]

@TC
Let's say I'm wrong about you but we are both right about Chaos, who do you think is his buddy?

Frank's the second scummiest person so far (albeit I still don't have a strong scum read on him)- he also needs to be more active (and he needs to respond to my later posts).
I think I've already explained part of my reasons in posts before.

I'm pretty confident of my strong town reads though: HS, Toto, and to

some

extent you. Through PoE, Spyre's probably the remaining one if it's not Frank.

How can you think Spy is scum if chaos is...

[copper223]

It helps if Chaos is not scum and we lose at Mylo.

Yeah I get you Toto, but that's not Spyre's assumption.

[Toto]

and the two TC's don't match up well.

This is a good observation I had a similar feeling when he was accusing SB of being scum because he was defending him too much. It didn't make sense HE was saying that.

[SpyreX]

I think the paranoia i have really is summed up by him saying yea chaos is probay scum but lets not lynch him today. Even if its tc as a partner, chaos is the right way.

I'm confident in enough town reads that on a chaos scum flip theres one niggler that has me worried. But that's it.