Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[copper223]

I'm confident in enough town reads that on a chaos scum flip theres one niggler that has me worried. But that's it.

Agreed, and that's why I'm lynching Chaos over TC today.

[Huntress]

Vote Count 2.6

ChaosOmega (2) - Human Sequencer, SpyreX
Human Sequencer (1) - ChaosOmega
TownCop (1) - FrankJaeger

Not voting (3) - copper223, Toto, TownCop


With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Two is Sunday, 30th October 1pm GMT, (in (expired on 2016-10-30 13:00:00)).

[TownCop]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

And exactly what is he getting off?

You seem to be reusing and "piggybacking" off some of my points about Spyre, except extending them to unrealistic lengths. I said there's the possibility that Spyre's not town, and that's true, but then you decide to explain that that somehow the possibility that he's not town makes him scum (even though he was

off

the wagon)??

I just woke up.

Im not piggy backing anything. Check my initial catch up post.

I cant tell what you are trying to say about spyre here but I think he has been givin way too much credit for his D1 vote.

So can you explain why you are not piggybacking? What about the initial catch up post?

Even if he's given too much credit what makes him scum?

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

Again, you express your read of me far more than you explain it (It's even selectively lurking in some bits - I know that a lot of stuff has happened recently for you, but when you did post it often ignored some of my points).

I don't think the odds matter and I don't get your point about them either, but since you wanted them:

2 Newbie = 6/9 * 5/8
= 30/72

2 SE/IC = 3/9 * 2/8
= 6/72

SE or IC/Newbie = 3/9 * 6/8 + 6/9 * 3*8
= 36/72

So... as you can see, the difference between 2 Newbies and SE/Newbie is pretty much negligible, considering the fact that reads are much more important than small differences in probability. Even if you were to take anything from it, it would be that Spyre-Chaos is unlikely.

To answer your question, considering I know I'm town, I'd say 1 in the wagon. Your reasoning of Spyre is strange, can you elaborate?

Your math helps my case btw.

Its easy.
Look at D1 wagons.
Look at TC votes.
Look at who TC doesnt vote.
Look at when TC votes.

This is why you are best D2 lynch.
Chaos had a similar voting pattern. If town wants Chaos lynched im A OK with that.

Lol and Spy really isnt trying if hes town. Which sucks as he is one of our non noob players. I guess its a noob game so no big deal.

Lynch CT, Chaos today.
Is Chaos is green fucking lynch the fuck out of spy. If Chaos is red then its probably still CT

If you're referring to your read on me:

Instead of telling me that something's suspicious about my voting patterns, why don't you explain it yourself?

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Why is TC the best pick if there was two in that wagon?

Why is Spy 100% scum if there was 1?

The only logical way to conclude 100% scum spy is if there was 0 scum in that wagon. Are you bussing Spy?

What.

So are you going to selectively ignore questions which you have no answer to because of your alignment and prior badly justified (thought out) "accusations"?

[TownCop]

Ok guys.

Look at TC. What does it mean if he flips red? Green?
Same for Chaos.
Who looks good? Who looks scummy?
TC will give the better reads, but Chaos flip will pretty much give us a good read on spy.

More info from TC lynch, but either of these guys should be lynched D2.

And so you are promoting the lynch for solely information again? I've already explained about that...

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.5

TownCop (4) - copper223, Toto, Human Sequencer, Gideon (L-1)
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
copper223 (1) - JasonWazza
Gideon (1) - TownCop

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

We dont have alot of concrete data, but votes dont lie.
This is a crucial wagon D1 because VLA has passed and scum had a great chance for a lynch.

If CT is town.

He wasnt lynched so Im thinking he is scum.

Who isnt on CTs wagon? Chaos,Spy, me. Then copper jumps on Gids wagon and we know the rest from there.

If CT is scum that would make Chaos,Spy,Me or maybe even copper his partner, just looking at this VC.

Lets look at the lynch wagon.

Applying your logic further, Toto was not lynched so he must be scum, and this contradicts your reads. Scum has a great chance for a lynch, but after that there's a great chance for getting lynched the next day.

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.10

SmoothBlue (4) - Human Sequencer, JasonWazza, Gideon, copper223 [L-1]
Gideon (1) - TownCop
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger

Not voting (3) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

Wait lets study this. L-1 on a known town. Only reason not lynched is because of claim. I dont think TC wanted to hammer before the claim because he knows it would look terrible.

Whos on the wagon?

Human, Chaos, towngid, copper.

So just copper on both wagons.

Do you not notice a contradiction of this with the previous post?

"RVS has passed and scum has a great chance for a lynch"
"I don't think TC wanted to hammer before the claim because he knows it would look terrible"

Definitely confirmation bias and probably scum.

Why are you changing your opinion on things just so they make me look bad?

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.13

Gideon (4) - TownCop, Human Sequencer, ChaosOmega, copper223 [L-1]
SmoothBlue (1) - Gideon
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
ChaosOmega (1) - SpyreX

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

TC still has vote parked. Human. Chaos. Copper. Totohammer.

So on the known town wagons- copper,chaos, and CT.
CT's wagon did not have chaos me or spy then copper jumps off at L-1.

Connect these dots it is PROBABLY CT and Chaos.
Looking at the associations after a green/red, CT gives the clearer perspective of who is scum.

If CT happens to be green it makes it easier on D3. If Chaos Flips green we will all have alot of trouble finding spys scum buddy.

I was never on SB's wagon... (a known town wagon)
Connect the dots and it's probably Frank & Chaos

[TownCop]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

I am not give scum a road-map to my reads depending on how someone we haven't even lynched flips.

If Chaos flips green and if Spyre is alive tomorrow he will be more suspicious than today for sure, but not in any way confirmed scum.

I'm going to collect TC's voting pattern and then you can explain to us why you think it's scum indicative.

Im just confused by the logic that if chaos is green, and spy lives, we have to go back to the drawing board.

Its pretty clear spy is scum there but his partner is a complete guess.

If Chaos is green, spy lives, doesn't that mean Spyre has ALL his flipped reads CORRECT? Why would it be pretty clear Spy is scum?

[TownCop]

To be honest I'm not reading TC as scum either he seems to be focused on clarifying the attacks by Frank, and not actively scum-hunting which is a bad sign. This is somewhat scummy but I can also understand that Chaos is not really answering questions right now and we don't have more leads.

Yeah this is my problem with TC, it may be just like Toto said (and TC mentioned as well) that Chaos being MIA is just not helping TC game solve, but in general all the focus from TC seems to be on the wrong things (debunking reads he agrees with, defending himself, evaluating probabilities on scumteam compositions) where he does come off as a smart guy, but then ask him about who's scum and he comes out with pretty nebulous and unformed thoughts (like saying that Chaos Spyre may be a thing because of PoE based on how strong his town-reads are) and the two TC's don't match up well.

Questioning reads I have and defending are all things that are normally done. About evaluating possibilities, Frank wanted stats about it and I decided to clarify and provide them, so why is the focus on "wrong things"? As you've said, game solving at this current point is difficult, I am more interested in hunting for scum right now, rather than further reading my town reads.

I'm pretty confident on part of the scum team now after recent posts.
I did not have a strong read at the start of the day, due to Chaos lurking and Frank's inactivity.

@Toto I am actively scum hunting especially between my scum reads.

@All
My idea of a general scum team now:

Frank

: Focuses way too much on voting patterns most of which don't actually make sense or exist, VCA is the only evidence he has for his vote on me. Changes his opinions on things often to help his scum read of me (extreme confirmation bias).

Chaos

: Needs to be more active, want to see posts from him. Sometimes seletively lurking

Spyre: Depends on whether Frank is bussing Spyre, also came here from PoE.

[copper223]

@TC
In the sense that before 710 you gave more coherent and exhaustive answers when posting about topics not related with scum-reading players, I found that strange because as a townie that should be your focus so my thoughts were: maybe he doesn't have to think about his reads as scum and this lack of depth compared to the rest of his posts is a tell.

I do like your latest, I keep going back and forth between the two of you

[copper223]

In fact I think the latest is enough for me to be pretty sold on Chaos and Frank as well.

[Toto]

If Chaos is

green

, spy lives, doesn't that mean

Spyre has ALL his flipped reads CORRECT

?

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to say. How does Chaos green means correct Spy?

[Human Sequencer]

@Frank
That was me quoting others to sum up my opinions at the time.

Towncop reads town. Frank reads town. That leads me to a situation where I have a townread on almost the entire roster. I'll have to go over everybody in ISO and especially w/ chaos if he flips red, but I'll do it at night 2.

Why haven't we lynched Chaos yet? Die scum die.

Semi V/LA will end tomorrow.

[copper223]

VOTE: Chaos

Again, L-1.

[FrankJaeger]

Hammering in less than 12 hours. Waiting for Chaos to post.

[FrankJaeger]

Unless town wants more time.

[ChaosOmega]

They don't.

VOTE: ChaosOmega

[Toto]

Information denial? interesting.

[FrankJaeger]

Oh jeez

[Human Sequencer]

Sorry you had such a bad slot and run Chaos, better luck next game.

[Human Sequencer]

Man I hope he flips red now, I'd look like a twat otherwise.

[Toto]

I don't think you are supposed to self-hammer as town. Unless this is a rage-quit sort of thing but Chaos seems like chill person.

[Human Sequencer]

You're not.

But it might be a rage-quit sorta thing.