Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[FrankJaeger]

@Frank
Not admitting there is a case on you will not make the actual case go away.

My point is your case is unassailable when your saying "scum could do this" about everything I'm doing.

I mean I guess I can say "But Im not scum"

if there is something specific Ive done you arent clear on I'm happy to elaborate

[copper223]

I want you to take the instances where I call you likely scum for behaving in a certain way and explain what your thought process was.

Specifically, explain your Toto read progression. Explain what you meant with that jeez comment. Explain why you think TC and maybe I are the likeliest remaining scum from your perspective.

[Toto]

I wrote that post to ask TC to come and tell us why we should vote frank and not him since they are the two most likely to be scum. I have not decided who Im going to vote today. It looks like you wont need my vote to lynch frank though.

[Huntress]

Vote Count 3.1

TownCop (1) - FrankJaeger
FrankJaeger (1) - Human Sequencer

Not voting (3) - copper223, Toto, TownCop


With five players alive, it takes three votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Three is Wednesday, 9th November 10.30pm GMT, (in (expired on 2016-11-09 22:30:00)).

[FrankJaeger]

I want you to take the instances where I call you likely scum for behaving in a certain way and explain what your thought process was.

Specifically, explain your Toto read progression. Explain what you meant with that jeez comment. Explain why you think TC and maybe I are the likeliest remaining scum from your perspective.

Isn't the burden on you to prove that I'm scum? Not for me to prove that I'm not.

Oh jeez as he hammered himself I didnt expect that. Did you see it coming? Why are you reaching so hard on this?

Ive made my read on toto clear. Need the post link?

You're asking me to rehash my reads. Why not just ISO me?

I've pointed out several flaws in your read, and you have no counter point?
Are you just going to keep looking for things to confirm your bias?

Ive asked you several questions that you haven't answered.

[FrankJaeger]

I wrote that post to ask TC to come and tell us why we should vote frank and not him since they are the two most likely to be scum. I have not decided who Im going to vote today. It looks like you wont need my vote to lynch frank though.

Why aren't you following our conversation?

[FrankJaeger]

Focusing on scum all game until they are lynched is a good thing.

My case on you is that your read progression is wack, your reads are far too sticky, you stayed on Toto all day D1 and on TC all day D2 (and this was your plan today as well I guess, him being the most likely alternative to your lynch), being over-cautious with who you vote and how often you change is often scum indicative.

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

I think it's import for newer players to realize that once you're set on someone being scum you have to commit to your read and get them lynched, it's a valuable skill to learn.

[copper223]

My case combined with what everyone else already thought is likely good enough to get you lynched, so the burden is on you to change my mind (or someone else's) and that is not happening if you give me canned answers.

Your ISO is not good enough to explain your Toto read progression, that's why I am asking you again.

Jeez is not only a sign that you're surprised, it also carries a negative connotation and I fail to see why you were disappointed with scum hammering themselves, again not explaining is just going to make me more confident I am right.

[copper223]

By the way, happy birthday Huntress!

[TownCop]

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to

, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

Because there is an obvious scum motive for trying to deviate from Chaos, you doing so makes you the most likely scum candidate, and yeah that's very townie of me, I know.

I'm happy you seemed to be prepared for this one so at least you noticed your own slip, what happened is you prodded Chaos hoping he would respond by announcing the buss and when he hammered himself, instead of towning it up like you wanted him to and that's why you gave him that chance, you let that Jeez slip .

Yay, Ive got my PC back! Now I can try to not type like an idiot.

Look Copper. Your case against me is backwards. You're going in with the basis that I'm already scum. You authored my biography and called everything in it scummy. Cheap stuff.

I made my reads clear why frame them this way?

And you think me typing the words "Oh Jeez" and then hitting submit was an accident? I slipped and fell and it just happened?

Lol WTF?

@HS
This is the difference between me reading players and me wanting to lynch a player because I think he is scum, so it's true I am out for blood.

I think it's import for newer players to realize that once you're set on someone being scum you have to commit to your read and get them lynched, it's a valuable skill to learn.

Explaining mechanics (answering your Q+ and debating the general case of a 2 man IC/SE team) is a way to post and interact without giving anything away.

If the IC or one of the SE's doing it in a newbie you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they are just explaining as they should (provided that's not ALL they do), but in a general game it's often a scumtell (it's called IIoA on the wiki, information instead of analysis).

Frank's reads by the way also look like him trying to buy off his lynch by town-reading those that haven't yet decided to hang him, in particular his Toto read evolution makes no sense (hint: because it's not a real read).

This. This. This. 1000 times. This proves my above point. Copper isn't scum hunting anymore. Just using WIFOM with

every

thing Ive done.
And about toto. Ive had the same toto read since I caught up on D2, can you prove different? Nah you cant.
Just shout "SCUM" as answer.
You aren't trying to figure out the game, you just want Frank lynched.


Look at the sentences I've bolded. Perfect example of what Copper is doing right now. He does a complete 180 when talking about himself, to human.
But I'm sure copper has a reply with "what I really meant" coming.

I still think TC is best lynch. Coppers play style has had an abrupt change, and it scares me. But Im still thinking the scum is 1-1 Exp/noob players.

You're still vote parking on me, because I'm the most likely alternative lynch.
I find your use of odds very strange. Even if it was Exp/Newbie it would be Chaos-Frank. And odds are far less important than reads.
Also, you have a semi-scum read on Copper so that if you get me lynched today, tomorrow you'll already have a person who you scum read.
The doubt you have about your read on Copper seems to be from the difficulty on actually producing a lynch on him, you would much rather lynching me, and if you do manage to lynch Copper his flip will look very bad on you.

Considering how important you consider VCA, let's have a look at your votes

D1 - Parked on Toto
D2 - Parked on TC -

scum reads chaos but doesn't vote

D3 - Parked on TC -

TC is most likely alternative lynch, so doesn't change vote (changing votes looks suspicious)

[TownCop]

I'm still want to hear what towncop has to say about his upcoming lynch tomorrow, after we lynch Frank today.

Why do you

assume

there's going to be a tomorrow - and thus inferring Frank is green, yet still having a scum read on him?

About Frank:

VCA is suspicious
Use of probability is strange
Interaction with Copper seems

scum-town

, and I am reasonably convinced Copper is town

Vote Parking on me despite having no solid evidence for his read

However, as HS pointed out, Frank's early interactions are towny. Also, the comment Frank made after the hammer vote does not seem AI - I know this is WIFOM but generally scum will not make such an easy slip.

I have a general scum read on Frank, but I do want to have a closer look at Toto before voting. Also, I require answers from Frank about his read on me, and many times I ask it has been ignored.
I will dive into Toto's ISO after or during semi-V/LA (starting tomorrow, ending in a week after, will try to read up during but probably won't post unless something significant happens)

[TownCop]

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to

, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

Because there is an obvious scum motive for trying to deviate from Chaos, you doing so makes you the most likely scum candidate, and yeah that's very townie of me, I know.

I'm happy you seemed to be prepared for this one so at least you noticed your own slip, what happened is you prodded Chaos hoping he would respond by announcing the buss and when he hammered himself, instead of towning it up like you wanted him to and that's why you gave him that chance, you let that Jeez slip .

Yay, Ive got my PC back! Now I can try to not type like an idiot.

Look Copper. Your case against me is backwards. You're going in with the basis that I'm already scum. You authored my biography and called everything in it scummy. Cheap stuff.

I made my reads clear why frame them this way?

And you think me typing the words "Oh Jeez" and then hitting submit was an accident? I slipped and fell and it just happened?

Lol WTF?

Copper's point is clear. And whether or not there is confirmation bias, you still need to explain your reasoning/defense properly.

Your defense does not explain anything about what you've highlighted in the quote you used, and heavily reliant on WIFOM.

[copper223]

However, as HS pointed out, Frank's early interactions are towny. Also, the comment Frank made after the hammer vote does not seem AI - I know this is WIFOM but generally scum will not make such an easy slip.

It's an easy slip only if you already think Frank is scum and understand his likely motivation, and scum makes A TON of those slips.

That's why I advocate never bussing, as a teammate you are in a position to see all the fuck-ups your teammates make, this often makes them look super scummy to you when if you were part of town you'd be oblivious of their mistakes.

Shining a light on them not only potentially screws them over for no good reason, which is bad team-play, it also makes you look bad as well for those who approach your reads critically.

[copper223]

I'm interested in more TC / Toto interaction.

[Human Sequencer]

I've got approaching 0 interest in a non Frank lynch today.

[copper223]

I didn't even get to play in the fallout shelter this time (the temporary forum they set-up for the once or twice a year that the main forum goes down).

Bump 788

[Toto]

Copper is town. Im betting the game on that at this point.
Im reading HS as town too. Less confident than copper.

Im not assuming there is going to be a tomorrow but I think there is a reasonable chance frank is town and tc is scum.

[copper223]

I'm also moving towards a 50/50 between Frank and TC.

TC's accusation that Frank is setting up a mis-lynch against me tomorrow by claiming scum is either TC or I seems unlikely, Frank would have had a much better time keeping Toto in his scum-reads if that was his plan.

Furthermore TC is doing the same thing he is accusing Frank of by saying he suspects Toto as well as Frank, and that's a more likely scum strategy for tomorrow.

That's why I want to hear more Toto / TC, I'm close as well to bet the game on HS and Toto being town and if I can be confident of that who we lynch first would just give us style points.

[Huntress]

By the way, happy birthday Huntress!

Thanks!


I'm adding two days to the deadline in view of the site downtime. The revised deadline is
Friday, 11th November 10.30pm GMT, (in (expired on 2016-11-11 22:30:00)).

[copper223]

After re-reading the thread and Frank and TC's ISOs from scratch I'm trending back towards TC being the last one.

[Toto]

One thing that stands out for me is that Jason never commented on TC's wagon

[copper223]

My main problem is how reactionary his whole play is.

[FrankJaeger]

At work prod dodge

[Human Sequencer]

Copper's ISO is enough to remove all my fears.
TC's iso is still neutral to me.
Frank's iso is still slightly scummy to me.
Toto's iso is still townie to me.

However TC's recent posts today seem like he's desperately trying to appeal to town to survive one more day. I have to reach to get to that conclusion, though.

Whatever. Do you still want to hear more from Toto and TC, or are you ready for a lynch yet, Copper? You're still not voting.

[Human Sequencer]

Some clarification, a big reason as to why I flipped over is how Copper reacted to my accusations. I really doubt a scum would talk in that way (post 758) and what he said about IIoA makes a lot of sense.