Newbie 1752: Wave - Game Over

[grapes]

Spoiler: Raskolnikov was killed Night 1 ...

... they were a

Vanilla Townie

.

[grapes]

It is now Day 2.

DAY 2 VOTECOUNT 00

Not Voting (7):

Cloudkicker, Blakebtb23, Drone, Charloux, ssbm_Kyouko, Tenshii, Creature

With 7 votes in play, 4 are needed to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-22 20:30:02)

Gorillaz - Stylo

[Creature]

That helps.

[Creature]

VOTE: Tenshii

[CloudKicker]

Yea rask was beyond obvious town, we had the same exacts read so i dont feel bad 1 sec for the ml

[CloudKicker]

I reread thoroughtly page 1 to 7 heres my new list
Town that i am 90% sure : rask, drone, turkish in that order
Town : tenshii
Towny but a few scumtels, either town or good mafia :blake

People i am lynching this game : hellfire and desmond

Bbt nothing

Like even with a reread, some posta from hellfire are fine, some of
His lines are fines but jesus lord when he spazzed out because of the bandwagon was seriously too much and i want the dude lynched this game, better would be on a ml since its hard to say. Like this guy is def scummy and seems fake af but i dont want to waste mls
On liabilities d1, hes still getting 100% speedlynched if we hammer mafia d1.

I rereand desmond up to page 7 and he again showed to be self concious, he also kinda team told with hellfire and his vote on me was seroously scummy: he outed a weak read on me and put me at "
L-2 or l-1 depending in if he knew the count, anyway.

Today we lynch in desmon/hellfire and i strongly advise not to vote outside.

VOTE: desmond

The scum players that worry me are bbt blake and tenshii, rest should be clear town for today

VOTE: hellfire

Final thoughts are
Preferred lynches (hellfire / desmond slot)
Scumpool (hellfire, desmond, creature, blake)
Probably town, if not, only scum with hellfire (tenshii, drone)
Wouldn't touch all game (cloudkicker, tkd-slot)
Obviously take new information into account, etc etc.

Doubling down on 477 WRT to tenshii, also have drone-blake and drone-tenshii as very unlikely in terms of association from drone's interactions with both.
Creature talking with hellfire would ordinarily count but may be super wifom.

Those are both comprehensive reads lists from towns. I will heavily take rask's reads into consideration today

VOTE: blake

[Blakebtb23]

Okay I've been somewhat quiet for a bit so I think it's time for a long post.

First, the suspicion on me. I know it was bad to not explain my hellfire vote at all, but i'll try to explain what I was thinking. At that point of the game, the game was dragging to me, day 1 had gone on for a few weeks with not that much new stuff each day. I didn't have the desire to read thoroughly and make good posts everyday. When I saw Rasks post about hellfire and tenshii's vote, I voted hellfire without any explanation. My thought process was this: "I want day 1 to end already, it seems like everyone is putting their final vote in, I have explained in the past why I think its good to lynch Hellfire, and even if this seems suspicious then its whatever because I know i'm town and that means everyone that lynched me was the dumb one, not me, so I'll vote hellfire and log off until day 2." In retrospect, my mindset was really bad, if I get lynched it is my fault for not seeming towny and making good posts, which is why I've been rereading and making this long post, because I know if it'd be my fault if I get lynched and town loses.

One point against me being mafia and about my hellfire vote: If I was mafia, I would be much more interested in this game. I would have known simply voting Hellfire would seem suspicious, so I would have put much more thought into that post. Instead, I was town, I thought "I dont really give a shit I just want day 2 already"

Another point: You guys think me and Tenshii are mafia, in post 565 tenshii naked voted for hellfire, in 567 i naked voted for hellfire. If I was mafia I would not be that stupid to make the exact post that my mafia partner just made, at the very least I would back it up with some evidence.

If I could rewrite the post, I would add my previous thoughts on Hellfire:

I dont think anyone understand that hellfire is getting lynched this game, he is never going to be night killed this scummy no reads and a vanilla claim on L-1

Hmm now that I think about it, if hellfire is a vanilla townie, scum would want to keep him in the game and not lynch him tonight because
1. he is a vanilla townie, mafia can pressure a potential pr player to be lynched/claim role today instead
2. They know he is a vanilla town so they can never nightkill him and get a better shot at killing a pr player
3. Due to the possibility that hellfire is a experienced player pretending to be newbie, scum knows that hellfire will most likely be lynched eventually and they can let the other townies do that work some day in the future.

So if this is correct we can look at who is protecting hellfire because i think it would be in scum's interest to protect hellfire whether he is town or scum.
Rask and drone both protected him. I think in rask's case rask was a town that got the read off hellfire's plea that he is also town, and then accused drone because she had a genuine read on him being mafia.

Alternatively, Hellfire is a very experienced scum and is playing a character, I agree with cloud that we should not rule out this possibility yet.
As of now I would be fine with lynching hellfire if we don't have a strong mafia read, because I believe there is a legit (~35%) chance that he is scum, but I would rather try to lynch a different mafia that we are more sure about

So back in day 1 I didn't really have a read on tenshii, and that's why I didn't think twice before voting hellfire immediately after him, but I reread him, and honestly I could not get the scum read that you all are getting from him. I think most of your reads stem from the fact that you think I am mafia, and that Tenshii has twice stated i'm towny or backed me up. Tenshii stated these about me right here:

[1] The IC has been prodded, posted he'll post, and still he's yet to do so. If you think that I depend on the IC to move things you're wrong.
[2] I'd like a few examples from the Hellfire/Cloud wagon you're talking about I'd also like to add in the fact you haven't commented even once about my interactions with Cloud or Hellfire. [3] Your read on Cloud was that he's scum.
[4] I think your scum read and vote on me are opportunistic.

[5] While you're explaining what's with the opportunism, I would like you to comment on my latest posts, Blake interactions and why suddenly you're not thinking Cloud is scum.

1. So going onto to Day 2 with a slot that basically hasn't posted anything is fine with you? You're denying all kinds of potential D1 information on that slot.
2. Considering that my reasons for voting for you were related to the Hellfire/Cloud wagons, this is a misrep.
3. Reads can change. I even outted a townread on him in the same post I voted you.
4. I think you're just calling things opportunistic because you don't have an actual defense.
5. Leaning town on Blake. Cloud seems too out there and grabbing so much attention to be scum.

Like honestly, this post is textbook mafia. I kinda didnt realize since i was focused on hellfire/desmond

What is "textbook mafia" about it?

So in my mind, I know I'm town, so it doesn't make sense for Tenshii to back me up. I admit I was seeming kind of scummy with my lack of posts, so I think if Tenshii was mafia, he would definitely at least show he was suspicious about me. The only thing that makes sense is if Tenshii is town and got a legitimate town read on me from early gam when I was posting more frequently.

That said, I still found something that might be contradictory in Tenshii's iso, although it might be too far apart to consider. He talks about how its bad to wagon hellfire but then he says its good to wagon hellfire:

My thoughts on Hellfire:

The wagon is bad. There's also a lot of talk for him faking his experience but no one is considering the idea of him being a newb at first and then learning through strategy guides on wiki. He posted about it on 139 The only thing you could perceive as scummy is his accidental "hammer." And I can see this coming from newbtown. Note that this was before his 139.

Perhaps they were swayed by Raskol's post explaining the safety of lynching Hellfire.

Essentially this. I don't like the idea of Hellfire being alive in future days. The best thing to his name is some reactions. I'm not down to commit to a townread when the only information to read him off of will essentially be posts like these. Today is the best day for policy.

As of now I don't have a vote because I only iso'd Tenshii, and I don't think it makes sense for him not to target me if he was mafia, because I know I'm town. I will try to iso more people and get a vote either tonight or tommorow

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Creature why did you hammer without giving me an opportunity to push Tenshii further? There was still plenty of time to deadline at that point, at least I thought so.

Also Blake, I thought you were scum because I thought Tenshii was scum, not the other way around. My opinions remain unchanged thus far but I haven't gone back to look at raskol's reads. I was unsure of her alignment yesterday

[Blakebtb23]

What happened to everyone's scum read on desmond? Lot's of people seemed strong on that read, including me and rask. Desmond left and became ssbm kyouko, he made 1 post about me and tenshii being scum, and all of a sudden you all forgot that he used to be Desmond and blindly followed his read. I think that Desmond got replaced by a fairly skilled player, kyouku, he read thoroughly and found a way to target two of the weaker town players. I'm going to vote for kyouko, and I think his partner is either Charloux or Creature.

VOTE: SSBM Kyouko

One last thing for everyone who is on the Tenshii/Blake bandwagon. You say that Tenshii is scummy and I am just following him, so my mafia status is tied to Tenshii also being mafia, but Tenshii's mafia status is independent of me. Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch Tenshii first, if he's mafia then your reads on me are justified, but if he flips town then your reads on me are unjustified. If you lynch me first and I flip town, I fear you still might lynch Tenshii, and we would lose the game with 3 ML's

[Blakebtb23]

Creature why did you hammer without giving me an opportunity to push Tenshii further? There was still plenty of time to deadline at that point, at least I thought so.

Also Blake, I thought you were scum because I thought Tenshii was scum, not the other way around. My opinions remain unchanged thus far but I haven't gone back to look at raskol's reads. I was unsure of her alignment yesterday

What were your reads on Tenshii being scum?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

One last thing for everyone who is on the Tenshii/Blake bandwagon. You say that Tenshii is scummy and I am just following him, so my mafia status is tied to Tenshii also being mafia, but Tenshii's mafia status is independent of me. Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch Tenshii first, if he's mafia then your reads on me are justified, but if he flips town then your reads on me are unjustified. If you lynch me first and I flip town, I fear you still might lynch Tenshii, and we would lose the game with 3 ML's

I'm not sure why everyone else is on you as of yet, haven't really soaked in D2 or re-read raskol, but I'm still most suspicious of Tenshii. The reason I pushed for you over Tenshii yesterday is because I felt like there was no way raskol would lynch Tenshii, and she pleaded for us to "lynch hellfire before the deadline ends, or at least someone in [her] lynchpool" (584) Her lynchpool was posted in 559. Despite the fact that she would have preferred to lynch me or hellfire, I felt like she was either town or skilled scum, and more likely town. I think she was able to spot you but didn't realize that Tenshii was working with you, not Hellfire. Since I was and am still confident that Cloud and Hellfire was TvT, I am only more sure of myself today. The one thing that still unsettles me is that Creature hammered early and I still want to hear about that.

pedit:Tenshii reasons incoming, I made some notes during the night phase but am early in D1 of another game and just got home from work

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Here is what I see from Tenshii (and Blake) that makes me suspicious of him. All of this hinges on Cloud and Hellfire being TvT, and I think it's fair to say that that is the case this game, unless someone has some compelling cloud evidence they'd like to reveal.

Cloud's 76 reveals that he is having his doubts about Tenshii from early posts (which, imo, aren't really worth much in the grand scheme of things) but that he thinks hell is dumbtelling on purpose.
Blake's 128 says essentially the same thing. He's buddying up to Cloud so that it will look better to cloud (obvious town) when he votes with him against Hellfire (and later Drone).
Drone's 154 attempts to diffuse the situation between Hell and Cloud. I don't see scum doing this because scum knows they're both town under my premise. This is what primes Drone to be later targeted when he succeeds in getting folks to unvote both Hell and Cloud.
Blake's 160 quotes back to cloud's 146 that calls the only defender of hellfire obvious scum, right after Drone starts defending Hellfire. Suspicious that he calls to cloud being the second mafia alongside hellfire when it should be obvious they are both town to anyone who is town.
Tenshii drops a bare Hellfire vote in his 199 soon after Blake officially votes for Hellfire, putting himself and Blake on the Hell wagon with Cloud. Add Raskol (who at that point was on for policy reasons, and she flipped town anyways) and that puts Hell on L-1.
I think Drone's 210 was an attempt to convince Hell that Drone was on his side and that if Hell shaped up and began to act right, Drone would remove his intent to hammer.
Raskol (fairly, though I think wrongly) sees this post and reflexively votes Drone.
Tenshii's 281 sheeps Raskol and votes drone when he senses the tides of the wagon turning. Raskol has a lot of people thinking she's town at this point (and she turned out to be) so he goes after Drone.
Blake also throws down a vote at drone in 292 for weak reasons (see 285). Here Blake even reveals "Then I said i think the scum could be either 1 of you or Tenshii because

Tenshii just voted you and if you are actually town then that could be a bandwagon

." He also says in this post "

I didn't vote before because I didn't have a strong read on anyone

but it seems like votes are thrown out a lot more liberally in forum mafia so I'll VOTE: Drone". This just after he hopped off of an L-1 with intent to hammer Hellfire wagon.
In 325 Blake starts to formulate an argument for being on Drone's wagon after he's already sheeped Raskol with Tenshii
I find it suspicious that only after the hellfire wagon is dissolved does Tenshii comment in 359 that he thinks the wagon is bad, as though he's been against it all along.
In 422 Cloud takes a step back and realizes that perhaps he was being misdirected the whole time and spots blake
After some catching up to the thread Creatures scumpool is {Blake, Desmond/Me, Rask, Tenshii} in 482, having doubts on Desmond/me in 483
I'm not sure what changed Creature's mind about Blake in 492. I think I asked Creature this already but didn't get the juicy details I wanted.

I also thought Tenshii's 84 and Blake's 110 were really weird together. Why is Blake repeating Tenshii's question for him, especially when Blake, to this point, at least reads turkish as a townlean? This is what initially aroused my suspicion during the reread.

It seems like overall people are unable to read Tenshii as town. He's either null or scum to a lot of people. I may have missed it, but has anyone actually outed a town read on Tenshii thus far? I think Creature is the only one to out Blake as town but please correct me if I'm wrong. It was a long first day and I was only in it for a few irl days so I had to read straight through the thread without having time to think over posts as they happened.

[Drone]

I have to say that I've seen Tenshii and Blake mentioned together way too much.
I didn't like and still don't like either of them. (game-wise).
Blake's attempting at a bus.

[Drone]

@Blake
The main thoughts on Desmond being scum came from Cloud's pushing. And after I received some stings from Desmond, I don't think he's scum.

But let's turn back a moment, instead of trying to revive easy wagons, tell me why won't you vote me again? What happened to your reads on me?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What makes you think Blake is attempting a bus? Do you think that if Tenshii flipped scum it would alleviate pressure on Blake?

[Drone]

Look #631

[Drone]

And of course, I'm saying Blake is scum.
VOTE: Blake

[Blakebtb23]

Here is what I see from Tenshii (and Blake) that makes me suspicious of him. All of this hinges on Cloud and Hellfire being TvT, and I think it's fair to say that that is the case this game, unless someone has some compelling cloud evidence they'd like to reveal.



I also thought Tenshii's 84 and Blake's 110 were really weird together. Why is Blake repeating Tenshii's question for him, especially when Blake, to this point, at least reads turkish as a townlean? This is what initially aroused my suspicion during the reread.

So before Tenshii asked cloud about turkish, I was already wondering about turkish. Tenshii asks the question, and i'm waiting for cloud to answer, but he posts multiple comments and ignores the question. He dodged the question, so I asked again.

Put yourself in my shoes, and assume me and Tenshii are mafia. I am a first time forum player, I just drew the mafia card. One of the main things I would always be thinking about is my interactions with my partner mafia, specifically do not partner up with him. That is the super basics of playing as mafia. So, if we were both mafia, I would have to be so stupid to make those comments aligning myself with Tenshii. In reality, I am town, and didn't think twice about asking the same question as Tenshii or following Tenshii's votes.

[Drone]

Sometimes distancing is also a common lookout for the skilled scumhunter, some scum play differently.

[Blakebtb23]

It seems like overall people are unable to read Tenshii as town. He's either null or scum to a lot of people. I may have missed it, but has anyone actually outed a town read on Tenshii thus far? I think Creature is the only one to out Blake as town but please correct me if I'm wrong. It was a long first day and I was only in it for a few irl days so I had to read straight through the thread without having time to think over posts as they happened.

In 125 and 282 Cloud read Tenshii as town

I have to say that I've seen Tenshii and Blake mentioned together way too much.
I didn't like and still don't like either of them. (game-wise).
Blake's attempting at a bus.

Despite Kyouko's extensive post on me/tenshii I am leaning towards Tenshii being town for the fact that he twice either backed me up or passed up a chance to wagon me. I think if he was mafia he would latch on to a chance to wagon an admittedly suspicious town. Since I know for sure I am town, his actions don't make sense to me if he is mafia

[CloudKicker]

Not gonna lie i expected to get pushed on for leading that ml, i am kinda bummed and lets not rush the lynch please, i want everyone to talk and more content from tensh+creature+other dude

[Blakebtb23]

@Blake
The main thoughts on Desmond being scum came from Cloud's pushing. And after I received some stings from Desmond, I don't think he's scum.

But let's turn back a moment, instead of trying to revive easy wagons, tell me why won't you vote me again? What happened to your reads on me?

So originally, before I voted for you, I had a slight scummy read on you. Then Rask, someone who I thought was very towny, comes and gives a good argument for why you are scum. I felt that since I'm a inexperienced player it'd be best for town if I followed Rask's reads, since I thought Rask was a very experience town, and probably had good reads. Also tied into my read on you was that desmond was also scum, as well as the fact that you scum read me for what I thought was dumb reasons. Since then, you and desmond have had conversations which make me think it is not both of you, and I began to understand why you were reading me as scum. As I reread it genuinely sounded like you believe me and tenshii are scum, instead of you just trying to lynch a town. So now I am leaning town on you.

[Drone]

Well, one thing for sure:
I'm not intending to rush this day. I have some things I want to check before.
@Cloud naturally, you especially need to think some things through, but your jump on Blake only because of Rask's reads is a bit contradictory.

@Blake, the fact Rask was killed n1, and you saying that you found them a strong town so strong that you sheeped them, doesn't give you town points, if not the opposite.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the only person who voted Hellfire yesterday and thought he was scum was you cloud, and I'm not even sure if you thought he was scum. I understand why he was lynched (see the end of raskol's ISO), but I think everyone involved knew he was town. I don't know what Drone or Charloux thought of him. They may have been in my boat, sure he was town and unwilling to intentionally lynch town even for policy reasons. I don't even think it makes sense to lynch him over no-lynch now that I think about it. Assuming mafia won't NK him because he's claimed VT, mafia are no more likely to hit power roles than they would be if he was lynched. Either way, they are aiming at the same number of people, only now, town has 1 less vote in the day. I think raskol's intentions were good but reasoning was flawed. I'm not rushing this lynch, but I'm not prepared to back down from this. I agree we need Tenshii, Creature, Charloux content.

pedit: Blake - If you think Drone is town being misled by scum Desmond/Me slot, then what makes you think that I'm conjuring up these arguments out of thin air? If you could persuade me I was wrong about this I might reconsider it. Right now nothing I'm seeing from you is making me second guess myself. I think if you were town I would be getting bad vibes about this.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I agree we need Tenshii, Creature, Charloux content.

Also this is why I'm not voting yet. Don't want any surprise hammers before this.