Mini Normal 1848 — Game Over!

[TwoFace]

i'd be ok with an arc lynch

[MortFeld]

Why didn't I like the vote on Creeps? Do we need to return to my reads on Creeps which turns out I had people agreeing with me on them?
The core on Creeps was utterly unnecessary, and I don't see town motivation behind it.

So we have some background facts that both of us can agree on:
-Creeps is probably town
-Road did not read the thread
-Road's reason for voting Creeps was for fun and to see if Creeps would then OMGUS Road, as I said he's prone to
So it's not intent to lynch, or even desire to start a wagon.
Red!Road - is parking vote on person who isn't active and giving dumb reason for it
Green!Road - is having fun and starting conversation. Presumably, Drone might have said, 'I strongly TR Creeps so why are you voting for them?' Which would have helped Road get a feel for the game, almost like reading would.

So tell me: how is her Creeps vote alignment indicative?

That all being said, I don't know why Road is still voting me.

[MortFeld]

It's not necessary for me to give a picture Green!TB. We'll just say that Green!TB is possible and that as Red or Green, TB was in over their head this game.

I'm definitely stuck in this nebulous world where the game looks very different after various flips but I'm not sure who is more likely to be Red.

Sure, let's do this. VOTE: Arcangel. Why HS?

[Naomi-Tan]

@mod: l/va for 3 days to get over this flu..

Noted. -Mod

[keyenpeydee]

Vote Count

VOTE COUNT 1.33

[L-3]

Road Kamelot - ChaosOmega, Naomi-Tan, Drone, Lil Uzi Vert
[3] ArcAngel9 - Human Sequencer, Nero Cain, Mortfeld,
[0] Toto -
[0] Nero Cain -
[0] Drone -
[0] DeathByWobbuffet -

[L-3]

Human Sequencer - Shadow_step, Toto, ArcAngel9, TwoFace,
[1] MortFeld - Road Kamelot,
[0] Lil Uzi Vert -
[0] TwoFace -
[0] Naomi-Tan -
[0] ChaosOmega -
[0] Shadow_step -

Not Voting

- DeathByWobbuffet,

MOD NOTES:

I'll give ChaosOmega the chance until tomorrow or he'll be prodded.

V/LA:

Naomi-Tan

With

13

Alive, it takes

7

to lynch. Day One will end in

(expired on 2016-11-21 15:40:00)

[MortFeld]

Nah, this is the wrong place to look. It's either HS/Road or Drone. Pretty sure of it.

UNVOTE:

[Road Kamelot]

Could have sworn i wasnt voting Mort anymore
Posting during my lecture bc fuck it, youll see me later tonight.
UNVOTE:
Going to look at the up and coming wagon bc i like the players on it and its not me or HS

Pedit: You know i like that you did this. Please dont take me being town as a confirmation that HS is town tho bc im recently less confident in how ive been playing in general
More confident in Drone scum tbh esp after deflective responses

[MortFeld]

I am annoyed that when accused of going with the flow, Drone said

But I am going with the flow, wagoning on day 1 is crucial for investigation and reading.

This doesn't make sense. You're a useless Green player if you're just going to let other people make cases and hop on a wagon when it's big enough. But this is something Red players are more likely to do. I asked

Why is the fact that wagoning day 1 is crucial for investigation and reading a reason to wagon Road in particular?

tongue in cheek because it should be quite clear that it's not a reason to wagon Road in particular. You were justifying your vote on Road with general theory that applies to all votes.

Drone, what do you think about the Arc wagon? Answers not accepted: "Road/HS are better lynches."

[Drone]

I didn't deflect the question, Kamelot.
And who said I iso'd you?

@Mort
HS isn't a better lynch. Nor is Kamelot.
Before I get anywhere with my opinion on Arc wagon, I need to check Arc's iso throughoutly. That will happen after I actually will idols Kamelot.
Something about "rvs vote Creeps" that pinged me

Hang on

[Human Sequencer]

Drone hasn't really pinged me.
Mort and Kamelot, I trust your greeniness enough, would you both explain the case to me?

Road keeps getting greener in my eyes. Maybe it's her avatar distracting me...
Do you have any alts, Kamelot?

I still really want to murderball Arc. Especially after her vote on me.

'Nah, this is the wrong place to look. It's either HS/Road or Drone. Pretty sure of it.'
I really hate to think we're set to lynch two townies in a row.

[Drone]

Will Iso Kamelot **

[Drone]

Something something, seems to me like Mort's looking for something to kill.
But I can't elaborate right now, will do that tomorrows.
Apologies as I've been really busy lately.

[Road Kamelot]

@Mort
I didn't reread closely enough, all I have to say.

VOTE: Kamelot

Then explain this i really cant believe youre not aware that this is what im asking about

[MortFeld]

Case on Drone is limited to interactions regarding Road atm. If Road is Green, I think Drone is Red. I am not sure that Road is Green.

I didn't deflect the question, Kamelot.

You did deflect. Road asked what you realized you missed between when you said you thought Road had a point, and when you voted Road. You answered only a part of that post in 1300, saying that Road's lynch is not inevitable. You ignored the more important question.

Then we have

All I got from that one is "I'm suspicious of Drone's vote".
Which is fine, but I said why I'm on the wagon.

Where you say you gave a reason for being on the wagon, but your reason supports you being on

a

wagon, not Road's specifically.

Now you're backtracking and saying that Road isn't a good lynch.

Something something, seems to me like Mort's looking for something to kill.

Something something, Red players have vested interest in discrediting Green players.

[Road Kamelot]

I didn't deflect the question, Kamelot.
And who said I iso'd you?

@Mort
HS isn't a better lynch. Nor is Kamelot.
Before I get anywhere with my opinion on Arc wagon, I need to check Arc's iso throughoutly. That will happen after I actually will idols Kamelot.
Something about "rvs vote Creeps" that pinged me

Hang on

Do you have any scumreads? You voted me but I aint a better wagon, huh? P sure you just said this to appease Mort lol

[MortFeld]

Everyone should do a search of Drone's ISO for TB.

[Human Sequencer]

All I see is a bunch of 'TB is always inactive guys' and 'I don't scumread him'.
Am I missing something obvious?

[TwoFace]

I could buy that I guess. Can you link me to the case on him (Wodd)?

here was my post that I did that explains my scum reads at the time - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8489932

Buffet - somehow interpreted my anger at him refusing to read the game as a refusal to explain my reads which is a lie/misrep on his part
Buffet - claimed my reasons were vague on why I scum read his slot - that imo is a lie/misrep as well
Buffet - claimed I was trying to get Mort lynched - no idea where this one even came from. I never voted mort and never called him scum.

He has also not attempted to do any sort of game solving/scum hunting (if he started doing some after this post I am quoting, that obviously doesn't count as I have not gotten there yet)

[MortFeld]

What I was saying is a little more nuanced than that, but it's not super important. What I'm seeing against TB is bad reasoning, sheeping, and inactivity, which look like newbie behaviors as much as Red behaviors.

I do think Drone + TB is a possibility but I'd want to flip Drone first.

HS, if you want I can give you my writeup for how TB could be Green.

Spoiler: a look into the Green!TB possibility.

The way TB posts early in the game reads manufactured to me. Dishonest. This is a gut feel, but it's definitely enforcing my reasoning.

TB has joined their first non-newbie game and wants to make a good impression on the experienced players

169 echoes what Uzi had already said and gotten away with, without actually adding anything to the table. The scum motivation is that this is an easy way for her to look like she's contributing information and scumhunting without actually doing either of those. She then makes an empty jab at Creeps, which I've already talked about. Creeps' posting was obviously a mess. Poking holes in it is what town had already been doing the entire time, again, TB knows that this won't draw suspicion because it's already been done before. This is an easy way for her to look like she's scumhunting, again, when really she's just poking holes in swiss cheese.

TB says the same thing as Uzi in agreement, not realizing he can just say "I agree with that thing Uzi said." Asking why Creeps was afraid of posting is not an empty jab, it is an honest question aimed at understanding why Creeps plays the way he does.

In 180 TB does similar. They reflect upon to town something that is obviously correct and cannot be argued (Mislynches are bad) and mirrors the perspective Naomi took in 134, for which Naomi caught no flak. They then make an empty jab at Mort's preceding post, despite him explaining his reasoning in that very post. Something important here-- one of TB's reasonings for voting Misa is post 77, on which she comments. But this post came from eons ago, from before TB was even in the game. They only decided to comment on it when they were asked to explain their vote, which came later. Translation: TB only formulated an opinion on why she votes Misa after she was asked to, and when she does, she mirrors the 'safe' perspective Naomi already mentioned. The scum motivation for voting Misa in the first place was that town viewed the slot as generally scummy, and it was a very safe vote to make, along with Creeps, who was her other target at the time.

Brand newbie TB believes a misrep of theory might be Red motivated, doesn't understand that neither Green nor Red will tend to misrep theory. Asking why I voted Copper is not an empty jab if TB doesn't think I gave a reason, so he must have not understood that I had given a reason already. When I said I already gave my reasoning, he asked for a reference post, showing he literally didn't understand what I said when I voted Copper. The Reddish parts of the Misa vote are 1. that it's safe and 2. that part of TB's reasoning was something that TB didn't comment on at the time it happened. 1. if TB is incapable of understanding what makes someone Red or Green, as TB professed to, TB cannot do anything but make safe plays by sheeping reasoning. 2. TB wanted their vote to look good so they came up with a reason after the fact. TB's in-game personality is wanting to please.

207
Notice that TB townreads the two people whose perspective they pilfered before.
Beyond that, she mirrors the perspective of TwoFace and Mort before her, wondering about the Drone question. Again, a perspective that has shown to be non-combative in the thread. Then she calls for activity of people who have been inactive. Really safe play, nobody can argue that we want those people to post more.

Already explained why Green!TB will mirror perspectives and play safe. Not having consistent internal reads is bad play but does TB really read like someone who is blasé toward solving the game? Sounds more like TB feels bad they can't help. The only reason TB's reads list would be Red play is if it indicated that TB was not trying to game solve. Lack of knowledge how =/= lack of trying.

They jumped on the Copper wagon without explaining why, only explaining later when they were asked to. As Copper has pointed out, one of the three people who opportunistically jumped on his wagon is very likely scum, and I'm willing to put a lot of faith int hat claim. Mort and TF both read obvtown to me, which leaves TB, whose vote is the least well justified anyway.

As I explained in post 845, TB agreed with Copper on the lynchbait discussion, and then later decided to vote Copper for his part in the lynchbait discussion. Furthermore, as Mort has pointed out, their reasoning to vote Copper came about 15 posts after they voted Copper. Translation: TB only had to decide on why they thought Copper was scum after they were asked to.

Why should Copper's OMGUSing people on his wagon be reason for you to suspect TB? Is this really reasonable POE?
And Green!TB might have jumped on the wagon for the same reason as usual (it's a wagon that exists and other people vote in this game) and when pressed for a reason, gave one that made sense to him when asked, not the one he had when he voted, for the reason that other people give reasons in this game. He's trying to learn how to play.

The final point is that, like I said in post 845, newbies replace out of scum slots more often because they get overwhelmed and don't know what to do. What does it look like happened to TB?

It looks like he got overwhelmed and didn't know what to do, yes. Red players lynch Green players more often than the reverse. Does that mean that any time someone lynches a Green player, they are Red? This is the same form as your logic. There is another plausible explanation for TB replacing out, which is that he has no idea how to play the game and believed his continuing was casting a bad light on his slot, a town slot.

This is my logic laid bare. If you can't agree with me, help me understand why not.

If you ignore everything else, two questions: Why should Copper's OMGUSing people on his wagon be reason for you to suspect TB? Is TF's and my townieness really reasonable POE? and: Not having consistent internal reads is bad play but does TB really read like someone who is blasé toward solving the game? Sounds more like TB feels bad they can't help. The only reason TB's reads list would be Red play is if it indicated that TB was not trying to game solve. Lack of knowledge how =/= lack of trying.

[MortFeld]

Oh, I cut out where you mention the Red slip. It could just as well be a Green slip - saying TB remaining is unfair for the game players, and also for town implies that TB is town. I don't think this means he is definitely town, but it proves the comment was NAI.

[Human Sequencer]

I do understand your logic in a lot of what you've said, but I can't agree and I stand by my interpretation of his play.

It's definitely worth considering, and I'd already mulled over the possibility myself but I just don't think it's as likely as TB is scum.

Right now we have a chance that TBs slot could be absolutely scum (my interpretation) or could be nervous newbie (your interpretation), and in my eyes there's just nobody else that has a chance to flip like that. I have a few strong green reads, but no real strong scumreads apart from this.

I know it's a different perspective for you, because you scumread me, Drone and Kamelot, all of which seem like better lynches in your eyes. I don't have those reads.

[MortFeld]

Well let's make believe then. Say we lynch Arc and they flip Green. What happens then? Are we moving forward or are we in the same place as today?

[MortFeld]

My SRs are conditional on flips and I'm struggling to figure out which of them I think are more Red. This is part of that process.

[Human Sequencer]

Arc flipping green isn't the end of the world to me. In that situation, I just go through my not-greenreads and rank them from scummiest to least scummiest and how they interacted with the arc wagon.

Much more interesting is looking at the people on arcs wagon if she flips green, just as it would be for anybody else.

[Human Sequencer]

Mort, I believe in you and your ability to find the scum after I flip or after Road flips or etc, but I don't believe in your ability to convince the rest of town or survive through the nightkills even if you get on the right tack.