Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[MisaTange]

If nobody is buying your 'Norska active lurker' case, what makes you think that people will buy your 'Transcend gutread' case? Your reason for scum-gutreading Transcend is their reads list. Have you ever thought of asking why they read people the way that they do?

P-Edit: I'll answer Transcend's question when I'm not on mobile, rip.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

WCS, here is a question for you.

You have two people that you'd like to lynch: Transcend and Norska. For Transcend, the reasoning is due to your gut. For Norska, it's because they're active lurking. Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to vote Norska than Transcend here? After all, you have actual reasoning for your Norska lynch so it's way more likely that people will follow you onto it. If you moved off Norska because you felt people wouldn't join you, then it makes no sense to move

onto

Transcend, who is even worse in terms of "will people join you on this wagon", since he's townread by a few people and you have no reasoning except gut. Not only that, you're saying that you trust your gut more than your reasoning regarding Norska. Is that true?

Well I have two scum leans so I should vote for whichever people are willing to vote along with me. I agree that my reason for voting Norska is stronger but no one is willing to join me on the Norska wagon. My vote is pointless by itself, no scum is going to get lynched that way.

Nah it's not true that I trust my gut more than my reasoning. It's that even if I have a better reason for lynching someone else, if no one's going to buy it and no one's going to join me then it's futitle for me to bang my head against a brick wall. If they're not going to join me they're not going to join me. Most of all I just want to get a scum player lynched.

Uh...?

Did anyone express interest in lynching me at all?

This sounds pretty fake.

Not yet they didn't but I already know no one is interested in lynching Norska.

You're still a slight scum lean for me. I think you and Accountant are scum buddies, but most of all I strongly suspect Accountant is scum and Char is town.

I care little for your opinion of how I sound to you because I am still leaning you as slightly scum. It matters somewhat what town thinks of me but what is most important is getting scum lynched and just being transparent about who I think is scum and honest about why, whether it be gut or argument. And whoever gets lynched tonight I hope town can piece things together based on the results of the flip.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

If nobody is buying your 'Norska active lurker' case, what makes you think that people will buy your 'Transcend gutread' case? Your reason for scum-gutreading Transcend is their reads list. Have you ever thought of asking why they read people the way that they do?

P-Edit: I'll answer Transcend's question when I'm not on mobile, rip.

I already know no one is getting on board when it comes to Norska. Any chance however remote of someone getting on board my slight scumlean of transcend is better than the zero chance of getting on board with Norska.

But I don't think Norska is scum anymore now anyway. I think Transcend is far more likely to be Accountant's scum buddy than Norska. My gut tells me now that they're working together.

[Transcend]

Didn't u say accountant and Charloux were town? When did this change? You said their war was TvT

[Charloux]

Guys did i sound like this when i was being pushed?

@Misa- you are null for me, look at 202

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

Accountant was a slight town lean until I made this observation:

Although I just realized that I've fallen into the trap of thinking about who's scum/town if X flips scum/town. This is called pre-flip association, and we should probably avoid engaging in it because it tends to be a house of cards, as well as a waste of time. For example, if I spend too much time talking about Charloux in the event that WCS flips scum, that's worthless if WCS flips town. It would be far better to wait until WCS actually flips, and then talk about who's scum or town based on that.

Instead, let's refocus on Charloux. WCS, you've stated a gut town read on Charloux. Do you think your gut town read outweighs the scummy activity that the rest of us have pointed out?

I don't really believe you "just realized" that even for a second.

Good acting from an experienced player is what I call it. You've moved from a slight town lean to my strongest scum lean.

VOTE: Accountant

The one thing I was most certain about is that Char and Accountant are not scum buddies. It seemed to me like they're perhaps both town talking past each other. After this post quoted above Accountant has moved to the scummiest lean for me and Char has thereby gone from a slight town lean (along with accountant who has now became scum) to a much stronger town lean. They'er not both scum and not only does Char seem townish to me, and genuinely frustrated at people taking his jokes too seriously rather than acting, but Account does appear to be acting and if they're not both scum and Accountant is, IMO, very likely to be scum then that makes Char a strong town lean along with Accountant being a strong scum lean, IMO.

[Transcend]

Meh

[Transcend]

Charloux being a strong townread doesn't make sense

But then again i strong tr Thatsit so idk if i have room to talk.

[Morning Tweet]

But then again i strong tr Thatsit so idk if i have room to talk.

You found thatsit's actions extremely newb!town, IIRC? You're not alone if so.

I may have underestimated scum!WCS by expecting him to not defend town!Char, but I still think that's a bad play. Look at how many of you have called out that possibility. It's because his hard townread is so ridiculous it feels like there has to be an ulterior motive.

However, I will accept that as a possibility, sure.

I have but one question at this point in time. WCS, is your strongest scumread based off of Accountant mentioning the danger of pre-flip associations after a discussion that was heading that way? You think Accountant, AS THE IC, waited to "just realize" that for town credit..? If I'm completely misunderstanding your case, just say so.

[Manuel87]

Charloux being a strong townread doesn't make sense
But then again i strong tr Thatsit so idk if i have room to talk.

Yeah i am still wondering about that. Or is it just gut like your townread on Gamma in our last game?

@WCS: when you changed your vote to Transcend i just posted my reads and i had him as townlean and Norsak as scum.
I was considering voting Norsak until you suddenly changed your vote to Transcend without a reason.

@Morning Tweet: You are reading Thatsit as noob!town when you just won a game by faking the same?
What do you think is different about him compared to your game?

[Morning Tweet]

@Morning Tweet: You are reading Thatsit as noob!town when you just won a game by faking the same?

While I did lie and say I had only played a few games irl and another forum, I did not win by faking newbtown. Newbtown in the sense of "Surely we're not lynching anyone day 1", etc.

As far as I can remember there's nothing in the thread suggesting I'm a newb other than calling myself a newb in my first post. Essentially you're comparing thatsit acting newbie (and in my opinion, town newbie) with me describing myself as a newbie.

[Manuel87]

Ok seems i misunderstood that.
But i am still suspicious especially if someone is so obvious newbie.
I read a game i think Transcend was in it with a player caalled Boring. She played the noob so hard that everyone townread her for it.
Only read day one but i heard she won the game quite easily and was an experienced player from another side.

[Morning Tweet]

I get that concern, hopefully thatsit rejoins the game sometime soon so we'll have more to go off of.

[MisaTange]

@Char: Genuinely confused: Why do you slight scumread me?

What're your reads this game, and why do you care about Charloux scum reading you?

It seems like I did misread Char's readlist, but had that been his slight scumleans, that was the one read that stuck me most as odd.

Anyway my reads:
{Accountant}
{Thatsit, Transcend}
{Morning Tweet, Manuel}
{Norska, Char}
{WCSBO}

To clarify: The bottom three are scumleans; WCSBO is my strongest.

Hmm.

VOTE: WCSBO

IF YOU HAMMER WITHOUT EXPRESSING INTENT TO HAMMER I WILL KICK YOU AND BY THAT I MEAN SPEEDLYNCH YOU TOMORROW

[thatsit]

Hey. I'm back - sorry, I had a few exams this week and was busy.

I genuinely did not know that people typically vote d1. It's a new concept to me.

Although I just realized that I've fallen into the trap of thinking about who's scum/town if X flips scum/town. This is called pre-flip association, and we should probably avoid engaging in it because it tends to be a house of cards, as well as a waste of time. For example, if I spend too much time talking about Charloux in the event that WCS flips scum, that's worthless if WCS flips town. It would be far better to wait until WCS actually flips, and then talk about who's scum or town based on that.

Instead, let's refocus on Charloux. WCS, you've stated a gut town read on Charloux. Do you think your gut town read outweighs the scummy activity that the rest of us have pointed out?

I don't really believe you "just realized" that even for a second.

Good acting from an experienced player is what I call it. You've moved from a slight town lean to my strongest scum lean.

VOTE: Accountant



The one thing I was most certain about is that Char and Accountant are not scum buddies. It seemed to me like they're perhaps both town talking past each other. After this post quoted above Accountant has moved to the scummiest lean for me and Char has thereby gone from a slight town lean (along with accountant who has now became scum) to a much stronger town lean. They'er not both scum and not only does Char seem townish to me, and genuinely frustrated at people taking his jokes too seriously rather than acting, but Account does appear to be acting and if they're not both scum and Accountant is, IMO, very likely to be scum then that makes Char a strong town lean along with Accountant being a strong scum lean, IMO.

This really seems strange. You're changing your accusations a lot - and this post seems to me like you are trying to defend Charloux and put pressure on Accountant instead. Do you think that Accountant can't make a mistake because he is more experienced? His post seems reasonable to me. If one of the two does turn out to be scum, I'm really leaning towards Char, who only started contributing seriously after multiple people called him out.

Right now I suspect both Charloux and WCSBO.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 1.7

[4] WeCanSimplyBeOurselves (thatsit, Transcend, Manuel87, MisaTange)
[2] Charloux (Morning Tweet, NorskaBlue)
[1] Accountant (WeCanSimplyBeOurselves)
[1] NorskaBlue (Charloux)

[1] Not Voting (Accountant)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-11-27 00:00:00)

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

WCS, is your strongest scumread based off of Accountant mentioning the danger of pre-flip associations after a discussion that was heading that way? You think Accountant, AS THE IC, waited to "just realize" that for town credit..? If I'm completely misunderstanding your case, just say so.

He didn't really just realize. He noticed he'd slipped up and then covered it with how he'd "just realized" because he thought that that seemed less risky than continuing with his bad logic. He pretended to "just realize" as a crafty move to cover his mistake.

I'm basing this on how to me it seems that his just realizing wasn't genuine and he was lying to cover a mistake rather than just hoping no one would notice.

[Morning Tweet]

UNVOTE:
Who here has objected to a WCS lynch? I don't recall anyone resisting this wagon.

@Charloux @NorskaBlue

Do you think there's a better lynch candidate than WCS?

(Also

@thatsit,

if you missed it, one more vote on WCS will lock a lynch on him. Are you comfortable with this? Who is more likely scum out of Char/WCS?)

Pedit: okay, that makes a tad bit more sense. Do you think if someone had notified Accountant that he was making pre-flip associations, that would have made Accountant look bad? I don't really find realizing his mistake AI.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

[quote="In
@WCS: when you changed your vote to Transcend i just posted my reads and i had him as townlean and Norsak as scum.
I was considering voting Norsak until you suddenly changed your vote to Transcend without a reason.

Well hindsight is 20/20. At the time if I would have known that I'd voted Norska but at this point I mostly suspect Accountant.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

Sorry for messing up quote. I should have previewed that.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

Hey. I'm back - sorry, I had a few exams this week and was busy.

I genuinely did not know that people typically vote d1. It's a new concept to me.

Although I just realized that I've fallen into the trap of thinking about who's scum/town if X flips scum/town. This is called pre-flip association, and we should probably avoid engaging in it because it tends to be a house of cards, as well as a waste of time. For example, if I spend too much time talking about Charloux in the event that WCS flips scum, that's worthless if WCS flips town. It would be far better to wait until WCS actually flips, and then talk about who's scum or town based on that.

Instead, let's refocus on Charloux. WCS, you've stated a gut town read on Charloux. Do you think your gut town read outweighs the scummy activity that the rest of us have pointed out?

I don't really believe you "just realized" that even for a second.

Good acting from an experienced player is what I call it. You've moved from a slight town lean to my strongest scum lean.

VOTE: Accountant



The one thing I was most certain about is that Char and Accountant are not scum buddies. It seemed to me like they're perhaps both town talking past each other. After this post quoted above Accountant has moved to the scummiest lean for me and Char has thereby gone from a slight town lean (along with accountant who has now became scum) to a much stronger town lean. They'er not both scum and not only does Char seem townish to me, and genuinely frustrated at people taking his jokes too seriously rather than acting, but Account does appear to be acting and if they're not both scum and Accountant is, IMO, very likely to be scum then that makes Char a strong town lean along with Accountant being a strong scum lean, IMO.

This really seems strange. You're changing your accusations a lot - and this post seems to me like you are trying to defend Charloux and put pressure on Accountant instead. Do you think that Accountant can't make a mistake because he is more experienced? His post seems reasonable to me. If one of the two does turn out to be scum, I'm really leaning towards Char, who only started contributing seriously after multiple people called him out.

Right now I suspect both Charloux and WCSBO.

Far from thinking he can't make a mistake I think he made a mistake and tried to cover it up. Hence claiming to have "just realized" after his logic failed.

[Accountant]

@WCS: You claim that I made a mistake by engaging in bad logic and am trying to cover it up. This makes three big assumptions.

1) That town!Accountant would never engage in bad logic.
2) That town!Accountant would never cover up their bad logic.
3) That what I did(stating that preflip associations were a bad idea and asking town to refocus on Charloux) was me attempting to cover up my mistake.

Can you please explain these assumptions?

[Accountant]

Any chance however remote of someone getting on board my slight scumlean of transcend is better than the zero chance of getting on board with Norska.

What makes you think that people have a higher chance of getting on board with your gut Transcend lynch than they have of getting on board with your active lurker Norska lynch?

[Transcend]

I still think Charloux is an enormous scumfuck and wcsbo just has a bad read.

Thatsit solid town now.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

@WCS: You claim that I made a mistake by engaging in bad logic and am trying to cover it up. This makes three big assumptions.

1) That town!Accountant would never engage in bad logic.
2) That town!Accountant would never cover up their bad logic.
3) That what I did(stating that preflip associations were a bad idea and asking town to refocus on Charloux) was me attempting to cover up my mistake.

Can you please explain these assumptions?

Oh, they're all alternative possibilities, of course. But it seemed to me to be most plausibly a non-genuine attempt at covering things up. From my gut and impression of it that's what it looked like. It looked like you wriggling out of something.

As I know that you will know, this is a game of incomplete information. There are always alternative possibilities, I just have to choose the one that seems most plausible to me.