Newbie 1752: Wave - Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I doubt 1shot BP even gets told if they get shot

[Charloux]

If there is a doctor, he will die. And no, BP doesn't know if he is shot.

[Tenshii]

I doubt 1shot BP even gets told if they get shot

Can confirm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If there is a doctor, he will die.

What do you mean by this? Like in the hypothetical?

Still not really sure how the hypo would work if we did it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

From what I understand if we mass hypo claimed then everyone would say what they would have done each night, and where applicable what the results would have been, for every role. The real PR(s) put their actual actions and results in under their role and still hypo claim the remaining roles, that way if the pr dies then we can see their results

I think this is a good idea to do before the day ends, that way if the cop dies in the next couple nights we can still get their results without having to have them come forward now before they have all the info. I'm pretty sure scum is electing to not kill because they actually weaken their chances by killing at this juncture.

UNVOTE:

[Charloux]

Excluding scum and me(Claimed VT), there are person A,B and C(doctor)
N1:Scum target A, and C targets A= No kill
N2:Scum target B, and C targets B=No kill
N3:Scum ratgets C= C drops dead

Actually it's more likely that scum just didn't try to kill anybody.

[Drone]

So if no one's claiming im guessing its a tracker/doctor setup, because cop would have claimed by now, 1shot bulletproof i think should have claimed if they got shot, and tracker/doctor would stay quiet and the doctor also explains at least one of the no kills.
So i think No lynch is best

VOTE: no lynch

BP doesn't know if they get shot. It was already stated.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yo lets talk about who we think is scum from the same wagons we were on. Like Me, Drone, and Charloux should each pick one of the other 2 who is more likely scum than the third, and you 3 (Tenshii, Blake, Creature) should do the same and explain why. Just realized if we hypo claim we may as well just for real claim because scum will know the real claim when they see it b/c they know if kills got blocked or not, and we don't know if they even attempted kills in the first place.

Right now, just based on Day 2 I'm thinking Drone is more likely to be scum than Charloux. Char's attempt at baiting out the NK and his explanation of it thereafter felt genuinely town to me after I had time to think it over. I thought maybe he was BP and that's why he was trying to bait, because it didn't really make sense for him to be baiting otherwise unless he expected Doc/JK to protect him. Going to reread the game some and see what I can find but I think this avenue of discussion will help us find the scum in case we don't have a cop. Can always No Lynch later if we don't find something this way.

[Charloux]

Why are you pushing the idea of 1 scum per wagon?
Also, i wanted to bait a NK and die because i was being scumread at that time.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

1 scum per wagon is what makes the most sense to me. I don't think it's possible you and Drone are a team. My claim is about to come, just formatting it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually now that I go back and reread day 2 it's looking real clear. That, combined with the following claim are why I'm going to vote him now. It's not in the claim but my N3 action was to target Drone again. I breadcrumbed it pretty obviously at the end of D3 (1017) so that if I died, someone would find my claim. It's hard to say right now who Drone's partner is. Cloud thought Creature and Drone were teamtelling with their votes but I don't know who I'd put with Drone anymore. Blake did some real scumhunting on Drone, and Tenshii at least appeared to go after Drone, but it may have been distancing. Drone+Creature/Tenshii are both possible, but the way Creature's been acting lately and in general are making me question him. I know he's not PR unless he's BP, so I know that's not why he's playing so under the radar. I would understand if some of you thought he was playing like that because he was PR.

VOTE: Drone

I am the Town Jailkeeper.

I pre-drafted this claim at the start of D3 because I unfortunately have no way to clear myself with my claim. Claiming now (at the beginning of D3, as I write this) would only leave me open to be CCed, unless someone claims 1-shot BP townie and is left unCCed, then I can claim and nobody can CC me as a cop and say I'm guilty, because a cop would not be possible in a BP Townie game. Tracker is a possible CC, but I have somewhat given myself away a bit already in D2 during my spat with Charloux, wherein I determined he was most likely the BP townie, or scum. I suspect he will also not claim if he is the BP Townie because he also can't prove who he is. By not claiming yet, I can CC any scum who attempt to fake cop, doctor, or tracker.

My Night 1 target was Tenshii. I chose him because I was new and scared that I had brought too much attention to myself by calling against the hellfire lynch. I instead called to lynch either Tenshii or Blake, but went for Blake's lynch because Tenshii was not in Raskol's lynchpool. I chose Tenshii instead of Blake because of comments during D1 made by Cloud and Raskol that suggested that Tenshii was either PR or scum. This way, if I was wrong about Tenshii being scum, I could protect PR. I failed to prevent the kill that night. This does not exonerate Tenshii, as his scumbuddy could have performed Night 1's kill on Raskol.

My Night 2 target was Drone. I chose him for a combination of several factors, which boiled down to the following idea: "If Drone is town, then he is the most, or 2nd most likely behind me, to be killed tonight by any of the other players regardless of which of them are scum. Drone is also very likely to be scum, so if he is the one to perform the kill, it will not succeed unless I'm roleblocked." Key points I factored into my decision on who to target tonight include:
-Charloux is probably bulletproof or scum and he sort of gave that away today, so scum won't touch him. If he's scum, he'd go for me or Drone.
-There is probably only 1 scum in {Drone, Charloux}, so if it's Drone and I target him, there's a 50/50 chance the NK fails (as long as I'm not RBed).
-If Creature is scum he's probably with Charloux and this is the most dangerous situation because Charloux is the player I trust the most as I write this post.

(Another reason I can't claim rn is because if this is the case, and if Charloux and Creature are both Goons, they would know there is no real BP Townie and Charloux would just claim it because no town would CC them. We'd then surely mislynch and lose. You must not trust any BP townie claim if it comes after mine. I will do my best to get BP townie to come forward before I claim today.)

-Going back to Creature being scum: he would probably kill Drone or me and blame the other for Cloud's ml. Easier to blame me because I gave a weak reason for voting Cloud in the first place (sheeping), so he would rather kill Drone.
-I didn't think scum Tenshii was very likely unless he was with Drone, because he is the only person of the other half of the scumteam's pool who was not voting for Drone, the player I currently suspected most when I was making this night's decision.
-Blake was hard to gather intent from but I was leaning more towards the scumteams being either Drone+Tenshii or Creature+Charloux at the point of this decision. Was thinking maybe it's Creature+Blake towards the end of D2 but that didn't work out with my hypothesis on the way there was probably exactly one scum on each wagon, so I figured scum Blake was unlikely. He also hasn't really been the greatest scumhunter so I think having him alive in MyLo is good for both of the likely scumteams.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also now that I've claimed Tenshii and Blake should unvote from No Lynch. Until we talk more any further No Lynch votes should be taken as scum-indicative.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My reasoning on the 1 scum from each pools in 1002 but here it is again

"Everyone alive today was on either the D1 ml or the D2 ml when they finalized, and nobody who is alive today was on both wagons. This leads me to believe that there was exactly 1 scum on each wagon, because if there were 2 scum on either wagon, it would mean there were 0 scum on the other one."

0 scum on a wagon means the whole other wagon was town and I just don't think that's very likely to be the case.

[Drone]

Perfect timing Kyouku.
Now, tell me where Blake is "scumhunting"?
He's been sheeping Cloud and usually hit participation in discussions were as if he's a jellyfish flowing with the stream.
That's my base for the earliest suspicion on him.
Second,
I still don't see the whole 1 scum per wagon. In my opinion neither you or Char is scum. And yes, I'm ruling myself out of this.
Most likely what happened is that you saved me in one of the nights, and the other scum hit bp.
If BP is not Char then we got this game solved.

[Drone]

And btw 0 scum on the wagon of d1 is a very possible for the town was full of (excuse me), terribly mislead by Cloud.
That's a wagon scum would love the most. Their hands remain clean.

[Charloux]

Yep, and so we come to Tenshii, Creature and Blake; But, alas, there is no way to determine who the PR is. I trust Kyouko's claim because i though she was a PR even before.

[Drone]

Kyouku is genuine, they have no reason to claim a pr as scum as they are not threatened.

[Drone]

That would be bringing unnecessary attention

[Drone]

BTW, we must NOT nl today or else Kyouku is gone

[Blakebtb23]

UNVOTE: No lynch

Kyouko's claim looks real good, makes sense why we had 2 straight no night kills. So you targeted drone N2, and you're assuming he was selected to make the kill so he got blocked. Would it make sense for mafia to have drone make the kill again, and risk getting blocked again? I think it still holds up that drone is scum, it's just something to think about. They might've thought it was a doctor save or a 1 shot bp so they didn't care that drone killed twice in a row. Before your claim i thought it was you and drone with a lesser sr on creature, now i'm firmly in the drone/creature camp. Tenshii could be scum over creature atm, but i'm leaning creature

VOTE: Drone

[Creature]

Okay, that's fair.

[Creature]

Maybe it'd be ideal for the BP to out if there's one.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This leads me to believe that there was exactly 1 scum on each wagon, because if there were 2 scum on either wagon, it would mean there were 0 scum on the other one.

0 scum on a wagon means the whole other wagon was town and I just don't think that's very likely to be the case.

I still don't see the whole 1 scum per wagon.

In my opinion neither you or Char is scum

. And yes, I'm ruling myself out of this.

And btw 0 scum on the wagon of d1 is a very possible for the town was full of (excuse me), terribly mislead by Cloud.

If you are town and think that neither Charloux or I are scum, that means you think that there are 2 scum in {Tenshii, Blake, Creature}, but at the same time you say it's very possible that there were 0 scum on the D1 wagon, so where are the scum hiding? Will get to your questions, this just jumped out at me as soon as I woke up and checked the thread

[ssbm_Kyouko]

BP can't be proven and as I explained in my claim anyone who claims it should be suspected because we don't even know if there is one. If Mafia consists of 2 goons they now know the setup has no BP townie, so they could claim it and no town would be able to CC them. If you are truly BP, do not claim as it cannot help us as a whole. Use your own knowledge to guess who might have tried to target you on N2 or N3 when I had Drone locked up and try to form your read from there, but don't reveal that part of your read.

BP should not claim until a RB flips

[Creature]

Actually there's a way to confirm a BP claim.