Newbie 1752: Wave - Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

"If BP is not Char then we got this game solved."
Are you implying if one of {Creature, Tenshii, Blake} is BP then the other 2 are scum? Just for clarification. The first time I read that I wasn't sure what you meant but reading again, I think that's what you were saying.

You also asked me where Drone was scumhunting. Like I said in my claim, he hasn't been the best scumhunter this game, and maybe that's because he felt like he was under a lot of pressure at the start of D2 so he was just trying to swing at anything that moved because he didn't want to get lynched. That's a little bit what it looks like as his wagon dissipates, but he gets in better votes with better reasons towards the end of the day. Day 1 he was floating along though, like you said, though the one accusation of his own he brings up is 325. It's not much, like I said, but it's something.

He may have sheeped cloud but if he didn't have a strong read of his own or if he trusted cloud's case/judgment on someone that's fine. I blindly sheeped Charloux on D2 to keep scum from thinking I was PR, and I'm town. Sometimes town sheep when they're unsure of themselves.

@Creature - How would you confirm that? I seriously doubt I missed that because I've been thinking about it for a while

[ssbm_Kyouko]

edit: You also asked me where

Blake

was scumhunting.

[Creature]

Say there's a BP claim and Drone flipped mafia goon. If the BP claim is true, it means scum will roleblock and kill you, and you won't clear anyone. The BP claim could also be lying, again it won't clear anyone.

But if you jail the BP claim and yet you die, it means the BP claim is true. The BP claim being scum roleblocker that roleblocked you would mean there's another BP elsewhere (who didn't claim), but the real BP wouldn't hesitate to counterclaim. If the BP claim is actually mafia goon, then there will be no kill tonight.

Also, if scum decides to frame the BP by nokilling, we can possibly get another lynch (like turning the game from 4v2 MyLo to 4v1).

[Creature]

If there isn't a BP claim, you can trust that whoever you jail couldn't have bypassed your jailkeep.

If Drone flips mafia roleblocker, you can trust there's a BP and you can also clear someone else.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think I follow, but what if Drone claims BP now? If he and his partner are both goons then he will not be CCed and his claim would throw doubt into the town who have just read your post. The more I read your suggestions in this MyLo the more I'm convinced you're the partner. This may be putting the burden of experience on you, but I don't think a town IC would suggest the strategies you've been suggesting.

Also, if the real BP townie claims it then I'm sort of pigeonholed into jailing that player to clear them, but what if scum just kills me instead? Now I'm jailing a BP townie who

might

get targeted, instead of jailing the most likely scumpartner who

has

to perform the kill.

Another point: What if Drone is the scum and he performed the kill 2 nights in a row? If BP claims then Mafia know who

not

to target because they still have their shot left to block

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Whether or not I know there is a roleblocker does not affect tonight's actions. If there is a roleblocker, they know who I am already and I will not be able to block the kill. If there is not a roleblocker, I still have a chance to block tonight's kill if we mislynch, and that's not the road we're going down right now. Drone is the first scum, the other is in {Blake, Tenshii, Creature}, and it's probably not Blake. It turned out that Cloud self-hammering gave us the pieces we needed to solve this puzzle, because of the wagon compositions.

[Creature]

I think I follow, but what if Drone claims BP now?

Would you buy that?

Also, if the real BP townie claims it then I'm sort of pigeonholed into jailing that player to clear them, but what if scum just kills me instead? Now I'm jailing a BP townie who might get targeted, instead of jailing the most likely scumpartner who has to perform the kill.

I don't think you can do anything other than that if you're against a roleblocker.

Another point: What if Drone is the scum and he performed the kill 2 nights in a row? If BP claims then Mafia know who not to target because they still have their shot left to block

Hmm, actually that's a good point.

[Creature]

So you think the best course is to just lynch Drone and not plan anything ahead?

[Tenshii]

I think Kyouko should announce his jail target tonight before today's hammer. In a best case scenario where roleblocker is lynched, the jail target either becomes clear or we get a mislynch because the last mafia has to be a goon. If a goon is lynched then hopefully the last mafia is a goon as well.

Also I agree with Drone being scum but I won't vote yet for the sake of letting Kyouko talk.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And btw 0 scum on the wagon of d1 is a very possible for the town was full of (excuse me), terribly mislead by Cloud.
That's a wagon scum would love the most. Their hands remain clean.

Perfect timing Kyouku.
Now, tell me where Blake is "scumhunting"?
He's been sheeping Cloud and usually hit participation in discussions were as if he's a jellyfish flowing with the stream.
That's my base for the earliest suspicion on him.
Second,
I still don't see the whole 1 scum per wagon. In my opinion neither you or Char is scum. And yes, I'm ruling myself out of this.
Most likely what happened is that you saved me in one of the nights, and the other scum hit bp.
If BP is not Char then we got this game solved.

I would probably be willing to announce my targets conditionally based on Drone's flip before he gets hammered. For example, I would announce who I would target if he flipped goon or rb. I will not announce who I will target if he flips town, as mafia would then know which of them would have to perform the kill on me to win

I think I'm right about where the scum are, one on each of the wagons. The plan is to find the scum between you and tenshii, maybe Blake tomorrow after drone flips scum. If drone flips scum and I block tonight's kill it will be 4-1. If we can then narrow the scum down to 2 players we will auto win by lynching one of those 2 d5, then we would wake up on d6 with 3 people and the 2 town just have to lynch the other one of the original pool of 2 scum we would lynch from d5.

If drone is town we lose if I don't block the kill tonight, but if I do block it we just lynch Charloux by PoE, unless someone has a convincing case for both scum being in {Tenshii, Blake, Creature}

I think my plan is good. If Drone flips rb I'll target creature. If drone flips goon I'll also target creature. If drone flips rb and I die then Tenshii is suspicious, but don't overlook Blake

[Creature]

What do you recommend if Drone flips goon and someone claims BP?

[Creature]

Nvm.

[Tenshii]

Oh my god. I really want to vote Drone. But at the same time I'm really scared and not confident in my reads.

I'm gonna reread the game sometime today/tomorrow and decide by then.

[Tenshii]

Creature do you have reads?

[Creature]

Besides ssbm, I'm confident Charloux is town.

[grapes]

VOTE: Angel

Angel is not a player in this game.

[grapes]

DAY 4 VOTECOUNT 01

No-Lynch (1):

Tenshii

Drone (2):

ssbm_Kyouko, Blakebtb23

Not Voting (3):

Drone, Charloux, Creature

With 6 votes in play, 4 are needed to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-04 07:07:02)

Talk Talk - It's My Life

[Drone]

I think I follow, but what if Drone claims BP now? If he and his partner are both goons then he will not be CCed and his claim would throw doubt into the town who have just read your post. The more I read your suggestions in this MyLo the more I'm convinced you're the partner. This may be putting the burden of experience on you, but I don't think a town IC would suggest the strategies you've been suggesting.

Also, if the real BP townie claims it then I'm sort of pigeonholed into jailing that player to clear them, but what if scum just kills me instead? Now I'm jailing a BP townie who

might

get targeted, instead of jailing the most likely scumpartner who

has

to perform the kill.

Another point: What if Drone is the scum and he performed the kill 2 nights in a row? If BP claims then Mafia know who

not

to target because they still have their shot left to block

Let me ask you something. Why on earth would a a failed night killer, would perform the kill the second time in a row?
And also if I was scum, and YOU jail kept me, twice (!) claiming BP would be equal to claiming scum.

Scum could also hold on to the hope that I'm the BP all along (and they have a rb), so they could kill me the night after, when my 1 shot is used.
You jked me, and they failed.

[Drone]

Or didn't perform a kill and then fuck all of us.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The thing is that mafia don't know why they failed, until I claimed.

So if your partner was suspicious and you looked towny, you might both agree that it's safer to have you do the kills because the tracker wouldnt go after you. Maybe scum thought the kill failed because the target was protected by a doctor, JK, or BP, not because the killer was blocked. I don't think they would target the same person twice in a row though which is why I think you're more likely a killer than a target. No kill is possible for one of the nights, but that's risky when scum had no way of knowing if we had a cop at the time which would have maybe caught them. I don't think they'd risk that,

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also my point was that if anyone claimed BP and you flipped scum, the remaining scum would know not to target that person, because they would still have a shot left to block. I wasn't suggesting that you would claim BP

[Tenshii]

Besides ssbm, I'm confident Charloux is town.

But why do you think he's town? What are your thoughts on Drone?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Another thought wrt this:
"Scum could also hold on to the hope that I'm the BP all along (and they have a rb), so they could kill me the night after, when my 1 shot is used. "

If scum target someone and they fail to kill them, it means the person they failed to kill cannot be a doctor. They could still be jk but see the following. It doesn't make sense for them to stay on that target. If the person was saved by a JK there is no risk of that person being cop. If the person was saved by a doctor then maf could rb the person who was saved just in case they are cop or jk, and target their kills elsewhere to hunt for the Doc or JK. If the person was BP then mafia are still looking for a tracker or JK, which is worth more as a kill than a BP that is no longer BP

[Drone]

Remember that scum has clues which roles might exist, and which might not.
Since you are jk, they know if there's a BP, and if there isn't.

VOTE: Blake

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My reasoning is an explanation for why scum might have made their decisions before they knew I was JK