Mini Normal 1848 — Game Over!

[MortFeld]

I do have the game solved. I haven't tried to solve it yet in the event that we lynch Nero today.

If there's a solution that doesn't involve Naomi throwing a fit, we should take it.

[Shadow_step]

Mort why is Nero town if scum are no killing. He just could be scum who didn't kill.

Also when the JK target is already outed. Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop. It's just impossible.

[MortFeld]

Mort why is Nero town if scum are no killing. He just could be scum who didn't kill.

Also when the JK target is already outed. Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop. It's just impossible.

If scum kill the Cop, we get a confirmed townie (Nero). If scum no kill, the Cop gets a result. Confirmed townie. So if by "Scum literally do not have a reason to not kill the cop" you mean that scum have equivalent reasons to kill the Cop, and to not kill the Cop, then sure I agree. How does this mean that scum would never no kill?

[MortFeld]

And I never said that Nero is town? I'd put money on his being scum.

But why bet when I can just take a sure thing?

[MortFeld]

If Nero is scum, we only have to wait a maximum of two extra days using my method. If Nero is town, then my method was necessary (maybe, haven't worked out the alternative) and we can lynch someone else. I don't think there's a scenario where we spend forever Cop confirming everyone.

[Shadow_step]

Meh didn't consider that.
But I've already explained how this game is Auto win. If NC is town. Scum can only be between me/LUV/Naomi. One of them gets jailed. If there is a kill that townie is confirmed and we have 2 lynches 2 suspects. If there is no kill we get a extra lynch. 3 suspects 3 lynches.

[Shadow_step]

Arc has to just say who she jailed yesterday and who will jail tomorrow.

[MortFeld]

Spoiler: analysis

Day 1. Players Alive: 8

We lynch Nero.

Shadow
LUV

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

Nero

Arc

Green = confirmed town. Blue = PRs.

Night 1.
Scum kill Arc or Chaos. Probably Arc. Arc jails Naomi. Chaos doesn't get a Cop check.

Day 2. Players Alive: 6

Shadow
LUV

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

Arc

We lynch LUV.

Night 2. Players Alive: 5

Shadow

LUV

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

Scum kill Chaos.

Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.

Shadow

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

We lynch Shadow.

Night 3. Players Alive: 3. Town wins.

Shadow

Mort

rb

Naomi

This assumes Chaos is Cop. If Chaos is scum, the tree diverges before he is killed.

Night 2. Players Alive: 5

Shadow

LUV

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

Scum kill a confirmed townie. Say, rb.

Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.

Shadow

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

We lynch Shadow.

Night 3. Players Alive: 3

Shadow

Mort

Chaos

Naomi

Scum kills Naomi.

Day 4. Players Alive: 2

Mort

Chaos

Naomi

Scum win.

At Day 3 we're in MYLO. Say we No Lynch (which we should do today instead).

Day 3. Players Alive: 4. MYLO.

Shadow

Mort

rb

Chaos

Naomi

No lynch.

Night 3. Players Alive: 4

Shadow

Mort

Chaos

Naomi

Scum kills Naomi.

Day 4. Players Alive: 3. LYLO.

Shadow

Mort

Chaos

Naomi

Town win. There has to be a confirmed townie still up, whoever is unconfirmed but town will know that Chaos is scum.

I'm convinced. Town wins even if Chaos is scum, assuming we No Lynch at MYLO. We just need confirmation of who Arc is jailing tonight since she's the likely nightkill if Nero is town.

I'm salty at Shadow, who tried to convince me that I was wrong without doing the work. Naomi tried but she didn't do all of the necessary work.

[Shadow_step]

Chaos cannot be scum.
There is no way town only have a 1 shot big and JK as town PRs against a scum team which has a 1 shot strongman which can counter the JK.
1 shot vig if it kills a townie it loses us an ML.
Basically game is horribly scum sided of Chaos isn't actually a cop.

[MortFeld]

Chaos can be sum. Nothing rules it out, though a number of things make it a nearly impossibly thin possibility, including the setup.

[MortFeld]

Oh yeah. Arc is V/LA until the 8th.

[Shadow_step]

FFS why

[MortFeld]

Not sure. I just know she is.

[ChaosOmega]

Chaos cannot be scum.
There is no way town only have a 1 shot big and JK as town PRs against a scum team which has a 1 shot strongman which can counter the JK.
1 shot vig if it kills a townie it loses us an ML.
Basically game is horribly scum sided of Chaos isn't actually a cop.

This.

If NC is town. Scum can only be between me/LUV/Naomi. One of them gets jailed. If there is a kill that townie is confirmed and we have 2 lynches 2 suspects. If there is no kill we get a extra lynch. 3 suspects 3 lynches.

This.

[keyenpeydee]

Vote Count

VOTE COUNT 4.02

[0] ArcAngel9 -

[L-2]

Nero Cain - Shadow_step, ChaosOmega, Naomi-Tan,
[0] rb -
[0] MortFeld -
[0] Lil Uzi Vert -
[0] Naomi-Tan -
[1] ChaosOmega - ArcAngel9,
[0] Shadow_step -

[L-2]

No Lynch - Mortfeld, Lil Uzi Vert, rb,

Not Voting

- Nero Cain,

MOD NOTES:

Keep everything cool and enjoyable.

With

8

Alive, it takes

5

to lynch. Day Four will end in

(expired on 2016-12-08 15:45:00)

[rb]

Look just sheep mort he's such a beautiful human and so very town this game that it's almost painful to watch ppl not sheep him

[rb]

The problem is I'm pretty sure scum are just gonna No Kill no matter who we jail and so I feel like taking a shortcut but I guess the scum know they can't ever win doing that so it's just being a dick for no reason other than being a dick and making the game boring, so maybe they'll still try to KEEL.

[rb]

I'd totally NoKill for like 10 yrs straight tho just as a running joke for maximum LULZ

[rb]

I've come to view this game as, 'the game that will never end' and am prepared to vote No Lynch for the next 10 years of my existence.

[Naomi-Tan]

Erm... Okay, Mort. If chaos is red. we'll know as he'll be alive in lylo with everyone else confirmed. K?

[Naomi-Tan]

alternatively we no lynch tomorrow if nero isn't red and do things your way and prevent a loss. The math still works out if we only lynch once right Mort?

[MortFeld]

I'm convinced. Town wins even if Chaos is scum, assuming we No Lynch at MYLO.

I already said this. Problem is that we need a JK tonight for the game to be 100% solved, and Arc is V/LA.

[MortFeld]

The math still works out if we only lynch once right Mort?

Only if we get a JK tonight.

[MortFeld]

But yes it doesn't matter when we no lynch. We can do it tomorrow or the next day.

[Naomi-Tan]

Geez... Okay 1 no lynch.. then we can kill right? and flip correctly right?