Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Accountant]

That's an interesting question that has no real answer, and can sometimes be up to personal preference. I think that if you have a very strong read on the original slot, keep it; if the replacement is unreadable, it's fine to keep your original read as well. But flexibility is important. If the replacement redeems the slot(or tarnishes a townread slot) don't be afraid to change your views.

For my personal approach, I prefer to engage with the replacement without any preconceived notions or reads to get a clear idea of how I read the replacement, then I combine that with my read on the slot's alignment to get a rough idea of my new read. Typically if I have strong conflicting views both ways I default to town. Statistically speaking most players are town, and it's far easier for a town player to look scum than a scum player to look town.

[Loopdan]

Hey Loopdan. Take your time to catch up and give us your thoughts?

I started reading last night and will try to finish it up today.

[Loopdan]

I'll post as I go along...

After the first four pages:
scum=
Charl - don't like the RVS post; don't like 50
Norsk - not crazy about 46; on page 4 Norsk votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play

town=
thatsit - I like 80 and 95 for town!thatsit

[Loopdan]

After 11 pages...

scum= charl, Manuel (maybe norsk)
town= thatsit
no idea on Acct or Tweet

[Loopdan]

Oh WCSBO, you sweet sweet child.... why?

[Loopdan]

Start of page 17
scum=Manuel (maybe norsk or Acct)
town=who the hell knows at this point

I really don't like how nobody said anything to shut up WCSBO from babbling about roles until it was too late. There were several posts earlier where WCSBO was softing and everyone just let it ride.

[Morning Tweet]

But like I said I do know which setup we're in

if

Char is telling the truth.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

Only I

know that. If I were scum my scumbuddy would know that. I'm not, I'm town, and I'm the only person who knows what setup we're in.

[Loopdan]

I'll have to finish tonight or tomorrow.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.4

[2] Loopdan (Accountant, Morning Tweet)
[1] thatsit (Manuel87)

[4] Not Voting (Charloux, NorskaBlue, thatsit, Loopdan)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-09 11:00:00)

[borkjerfkin]

Charloux, NorskaBlue, Manuel87 were prodded.

[Loopdan]

But like I said I do know which setup we're in

if

Char is telling the truth.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

Only I

know that. If I were scum my scumbuddy would know that. I'm not, I'm town, and I'm the only person who knows what setup we're in.

You pulled this from the scum PT, eh?

[Morning Tweet]

Oh yeah, I reminded them WCS softed on multiple occasions WITH proof,

just

in case they missed it.

IIRC I missed the inital soft amongst his fluff-posting and disagreeable reads, but next thing I know he's basically self outted. I almost decided to snap at him, but I knew that wasn't going to benefit town and there's the slim chance scum missed it. So you get my would-be reaction now x3

Misa (and Norska I think) didn't notice both PRs were outted until around the end of the day, though, so not putting the spotlight on WCS was probably a good enough move for everyone. I'm not sure how I would have averted him from going further with his softs without drawing attention to his first one, had I realized sooner.

[NorskaBlue]

Well this sucks. I offered to replace in because I've played with four of you before. Except now I see two of them are dead and I'm replacing the third.

Hi Accountant.

Well, maybe you'll make some new friends. Remember to wear a pair of gumboots before wading too deep into this game.

(and Norska I think)

Correct. I had no clue that WCSBO was a PR, but looking back, it seems so much more obvious. Ah well, another lesson learned from this game.

[Accountant]

I really don't like how nobody said anything to shut up WCSBO from babbling about roles until it was too late. There were several posts earlier where WCSBO was softing and everyone just let it ride.

I was asleep for a lot of the time he was babbling on, and by that time it was better to let him continue on and 99% get exposed rather than scold him and 100% get exposed.

Do you still have a townread on thatsit?

[Manuel87]

After 11 pages...

scum= charl, Manuel (maybe norsk)
town= thatsit
no idea on Acct or Tweet

Why did you stop to explain your reads here?

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.5

[2] Loopdan (Accountant, Morning Tweet)
[1] thatsit (Manuel87)

[4] Not Voting (Charloux, NorskaBlue, thatsit, Loopdan)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

thatsit is V/LA until [unspecified]

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-09 11:00:00)

[Loopdan]

End of Day 1

If I had to bet I'd say scum is Accountant/Norsk.
It is much much more likely that Charl is actually the doc than scum that got lucky on a fake-claim, so I'm treating him as confTown.
I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.
Manuel is a slight scum-lean.
thatsit is null and has been kind of forgettable.

I'll read up on Day 2 and post any changes to the above.

[Loopdan]

All caught up.

Accountant looks more town Day 2. There's some diverse questioning and scum-hunting going on. My only concern is Accountant hasn't done any heavy tunneling this game. Not sure if that's a scum!Accountant trait or just a lack of conviction on scumreads. Partway through page 28 I wrote in my notes "Norska/thatsit FTW."

VOTE: Norska

Norska is more concerned with being viewed a certain way than in actually finding scum.

Thatsit is newbscum that won't enter the pasture for fear of stepping into something he can't scrape off his boots.

[Accountant]

I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.

Why does Tweet's prior game make her suspicious? I don't understand?

[Accountant]

It's weird that you highlight my lack of tunnelling as a possible area of concern(presumably treating it as a meta scumtell) but townread me for being more diverse in my scumbunting D2 - ie. townreading me for lack of tunnelling. Can you explain this discrepancy?

[Loopdan]

I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.

Why does Tweet's prior game make her suspicious? I don't understand?

She has a higher level of skill than a typical newbie, and is apparently pretty good at being town-read as scum.

[Loopdan]

It's weird that you highlight my lack of tunnelling as a possible area of concern(presumably treating it as a meta scumtell) but townread me for being more diverse in my scumbunting D2 - ie. townreading me for lack of tunnelling. Can you explain this discrepancy?

scum-hunting =/= tunneling

For the record, I have no idea if lack of tunneling is a scumtell for you, or not. I only know that I've seen you tunnel as town.

[Accountant]

Right, but that doesn't necessarily lead to Tweet being scum. If she can seem as scum, then she'll definitely seem town as town. It therefore follows that Tweet would seem town regardless of alignment - so a shallow observation like "Tweet seems town" tells you nothing. That doesn't lead to an increased likelihood of Tweet scum here.

[Loopdan]

I agree.

[Accountant]

So when you say "suspicious", what did you mean to imply about her alignment? I interpreted that as saying she was scummy.