Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[JaeReed]

Alright

While i do approve of the votes on Charloux I'm gonna be SE-y for a bit and say that we can be wrong on him and I don't want a derp hammer happening while he's unable to defend himself. Giving him a chance to defend himself is fair imo.

Who's scum with thatsit in your opinion, Manuel?

My guess would be Accountant.
Tweet and me both stated a scumread on Accountant at the end of day 1.
All of thatsits early day 2 posts pointed away from Accountant probably trying to help him.
This would also explain his sudden activity early day 2.

Norska is a possibility too.

You don't think Transcend/Loopdan is a possibility? Why?

[JaeReed]

Why do you interpret thatsit's D2 posts as him being my scumbuddy as opposed to him simply having a townread on me or trying to buddy me? That makes no sense. You're arranging facts to fit a pre-arranged conclusion.

You don't buy

either

of them being scum?

That question wasn't rhetorical. Would like a clear answer on that.

[Manuel87]

Why do you interpret thatsit's D2 posts as him being my scumbuddy as opposed to him simply having a townread on me or trying to buddy me? That makes no sense. You're arranging facts to fit a pre-arranged conclusion.

Why would he go out of his way to buddy you when he could simply continue to lurk and see if a wagon on you develops?
Also why would i consider him townreading you when i am looking for his possible scumbuddys? He knows your role if he is scum.

You don't think Transcend/Loopdan is a possibility? Why?

I still have a townread on Transcend/Loopdan.

Plus as i mentioned yesterday why would scum!Transcend unvote WCS when he was at L-1?
I think the most vocal about the WCS train was me so suspicion would probably have been on me not him.

I want to add that i can understand Transcends statement about getting demotivated when all your reads turn out to be wrong.
This has nothing to do with the lynch being town but all his scumreads turned out town (Charloux!unconf, WCS!conf, Misa!conf) with one not confirmed yet but most likely town.
Him replacing out is also a reason i read the slot town combined with the demotivation stuff.

Loopdans reads are also close to mine so my townread on him stands.

[Accountant]

You don't buy

either

of them being scum?

Sorry, didn't see this. I don't buy them being scum together. I can buy one of them being scum with a stronger player(Transcend/Tweet, maybe Manuel) who told them who to shank.

[Accountant]

@Manuel: How strong is your scumread on thatsit?

Is your townread on Transcend due solely to demotivation and Loopdan's reads echoing yours? I wouldn't call having similar reads a towntell, especially since it's so easy to fake having similar reads.

[Manuel87]

Is your townread on Transcend due solely to demotivation and Loopdan's reads echoing yours? I wouldn't call having similar reads a towntell, especially since it's so easy to fake having similar reads.

I quoted my main reason for my townread on him in my last post. I also stated that like 3 times day 2 every time the argument got ignored. (Tweet didnt respond to it as well)

@Manuel: How strong is your scumread on thatsit?

I think he is the most likely scum right now, simply based on his start into day 2.
It didnt fit his play to come out like that early day 2 and throwing shade on 2 ppl.
When he was questioned about scum being in the not Misa votes, he couldnt give a reason and made something up.
When i questioned him about that, he vanished again.

My guess would be he and his buddy discussed pushing on me or Tweet, as we were already going at each other yesterday.
But when questioned why he couldnt come up with a good reason for either one.

We wasted a lot of time today waiting for him (and Norska) to respond and its getting quite annoying.
He wont even be replaced because of his convenient V/LA.

[JaeReed]

Alright

While i do approve of the votes on Charloux I'm gonna be SE-y for a bit and say that we can be wrong on him and I don't want a derp hammer happening while he's unable to defend himself. Giving him a chance to defend himself is fair imo.

Why am I pretty strong town to you?

You're asking a lot of piercing questions and pretty logical conclusions that I agree with. You're spreading out your interrogations, getting information from everyone, but it doesn't feel like you're trying to misdirect us or shift the focus away from a scum. You're being helpful like a competent townie, without it feeling like you're shepherding people like me. I'm not certain, and I'm open to any more information that could change my reading of you. But if you do turn out to be scum, hats off to you for a good game.

But I don't think Norska is scum anymore now anyway. I think Transcend is far more likely to be Accountant's scum buddy than Norska. My gut tells me now that they're working together.

What changed your mind? In 221 you said your case for voting me was stronger than your case on Transcend. Then six posts later I'm town but T is still scum? Also, I can't see how post 193 took your reading of Accountant from slight town to maximum scum. I can sorta see your argument, but it feels like a pretty major shift in direction.

VOTE: thatsit

L-2.

I've only read up to page 13 but I'm fine with this so far. I'll keep reading up.

Pretty sure Manuel is town, and Transcend's paranoia about the claim and the demotivation + replace also reads town to me. I've never known Transcend to replace as scum just because he got a bit of pressure, or to really dodge the pressure. He knows how to deal with it.

[Accountant]

VOTE: thatsit

Let's do this, then. I'm not quite as sure about Loopdan, but it's not an overwhelming scumread.

[NorskaBlue]

@Loopdan:

Spoiler:

Page 4 - Norska votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play

Yeah, fair enough. It was a terrible play on my part, and I've given all the justification that I can on it before.

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

I apologise a lot. I still stand by my read on Acc. Why don't you like my TR on Transcend? Aren't you Transcend?

207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him

This is my first game and I wanted to make a strong impression. Yeah, stupid, I know. Ended up doing the complete opposite.

212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)

Surely 260 explains 212? If my best post so far makes you think I'm scum then I clearly have a lot to learn.

564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!

Tbh, my activity level didn't really change during my v/la. If I wanted to remain low-key I wouldn't have said anything.

661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk

Whats scummy about that post?

680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!

As I said, however I got scumreads on day one was clearly flawed, so I wanted to reexamine my posts and try to see where I went wrong. Are townies supposed to memorize all of their earlier posts off by heart? And I said I'm not confident because I'm not confident. After how my earlier reads played out, I don't think its an unreasonable attitude.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Correct. Whats your point?

We still have about 3 days until the deadline, correct? thatsit is still my top scumread, but I don't really feel comfortable lynching someone who can't defend themselves.

[JaeReed]

Why am I pretty strong town to you?

You're asking a lot of piercing questions and pretty logical conclusions that I agree with. You're spreading out your interrogations, getting information from everyone, but it doesn't feel like you're trying to misdirect us or shift the focus away from a scum. You're being helpful like a competent townie, without it feeling like you're shepherding people like me. I'm not certain, and I'm open to any more information that could change my reading of you. But if you do turn out to be scum, hats off to you for a good game.

But I don't think Norska is scum anymore now anyway. I think Transcend is far more likely to be Accountant's scum buddy than Norska. My gut tells me now that they're working together.

What changed your mind? In 221 you said your case for voting me was stronger than your case on Transcend. Then six posts later I'm town but T is still scum? Also, I can't see how post 193 took your reading of Accountant from slight town to maximum scum. I can sorta see your argument, but it feels like a pretty major shift in direction.

For the record in case I die, I am strongly of the opinion that this post comes from newbtown. I'm very against lynching this slot.

If thatsit doesn't flip scum my fos falls to Transcend/Manuel.
If thatsit flips scum then Manuel is pretty much conftown to me until lylo (where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

[Loopdan]

Spoiler: Opinions about/Questions for Loopdan's Norska case

(Minus your notes on Transcend and Charloux's reads + towny Norska posts)

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

Do you think town!Norska would townread different players?

I think it is likely that newbscum would give TRs to the two most experienced players in an attempt to keep them off his back.

207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him

Are you sure he's scummily concerned about how others view him? What possible motivation would scum!Norska have for saying:

"I'll possibly survive today, but I'm being read as scum be pretty much everyone."

,

"Better as in safer. If Char gets lynched, it won't be directly my fault. Cowardly yes, but cowards live longer."

Those are two snippets from a post that overall is more concerned with being TR than finding scum.

564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!

I'm gonna have to disagree on that one. Frequent V/LA's? Sure, I could see that. This particular V/LA however I'm almost certain was not scum-motivated, even if Norska's scum.

Maybe not. But why not comment at all on the Misa wagon when posting the V/LA?

661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk

Again with the Transcend/Accountant townread thing.

661 is bad because it's his first post in Day 2 and it's entire purpose is to say "oops my reads are just bad I'm not scum."

680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!

Yes, he could be keeping his options open to aid a scum agenda. Doesn't scream scum to me, he's definitely shown that he's not very opinionated so far throughout this game.

683- Norska reluctantly says thatsit and Manuel are SRs

See above.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Not sure how this post differs from his apologetic posting thus far.

After 11 pages...

scum= charl, Manuel (maybe norsk)
town= thatsit
no idea on Acct or Tweet

Why did you stop to explain your reads here?

Accountant may be partially referring to this about ignoring Manuel, in case you missed it Loop.

I was posting reads as I went along, trying to do it every five pages or so if they had changed. They are just copied and pasted from my notes.

I've replied to your spoilered questions above.

[Accountant]

(where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

What's your read on me after thatsit's flip? I was definitely heavily involved in the wagon and questioning process, so you should have some kind of opinion on that.

[Accountant]

@Loopdan:

Spoiler:

Page 4 - Norska votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play

Yeah, fair enough. It was a terrible play on my part, and I've given all the justification that I can on it before.

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

I apologise a lot. I still stand by my read on Acc. Why don't you like my TR on Transcend? Aren't you Transcend?

207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him

This is my first game and I wanted to make a strong impression. Yeah, stupid, I know. Ended up doing the complete opposite.

212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)

Surely 260 explains 212? If my best post so far makes you think I'm scum then I clearly have a lot to learn.

564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!

Tbh, my activity level didn't really change during my v/la. If I wanted to remain low-key I wouldn't have said anything.

661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk

Whats scummy about that post?

680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!

As I said, however I got scumreads on day one was clearly flawed, so I wanted to reexamine my posts and try to see where I went wrong. Are townies supposed to memorize all of their earlier posts off by heart? And I said I'm not confident because I'm not confident. After how my earlier reads played out, I don't think its an unreasonable attitude.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Correct. Whats your point?

We still have about 3 days until the deadline, correct? thatsit is still my top scumread, but I don't really feel comfortable lynching someone who can't defend themselves.

Do you have a strong expectation that your top scumread will suddenly change if thatsit gets back and responds?

I don't mean to imply that we should rush the lynch - obviously people should still give intent before hammer(I think thatsit is L-1 right now), but it's weird that you're trying to stall a lynch on your top scumread.

[Loopdan]

@Norska-- I included all my notes on your slot. So not everything there implicates you as scum (ex 212 & 260). I'll reply with more detail when I'm at a computer.

[Loopdan]

Intend to hammer thatsit

But I'm in no hurry.

@Norska-- Why aren't you already voting your top scum-read?

[Accountant]

@thatsit: You are at L-1, and Loopdan wants to hammer you. Please claim and give us your final reads list so we have something to go on tomorrow if you happen to be town.

[Loopdan]

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

I apologise a lot. I still stand by my read on Acc. Why don't you like my TR on Transcend? Aren't you Transcend?

Yes, I replaced Transcend. As I read, it jumped out to me that you, a newer player, gave the two most experienced players a TR. I think newbtown is usually more cautious in reading experienced players as town. It isn't a huge deal, but it jumped out enough for me to make a note.

212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)

Surely 260 explains 212? If my best post so far makes you think I'm scum then I clearly have a lot to learn.

Like I said before, these are all my notes on your slot, copied and pasted directly into a post (with [post] tags added). So there are likely to be town indicators in there, as well.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Correct. Whats your point?

You should be more concerned with finding and lynching scum than being liked by the other players.

[Loopdan]

Not sure what to make of Norska now. 783 seems pretty transparent, and JR says he isn't scum.

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.7

[3] thatsit (Manuel87, JaeReed, Accountant)
[1] Loopdan (Morning Tweet)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[2] Not Voting (NorskaBlue, thatsit)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 11:00:00)

[Accountant]

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).

And if he flips town?

[Loopdan]

...then likely one scum in (Acct, Manuel).

Though I think that's quite a bit weaker than what we get if he flips scum.

[JaeReed]

(where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

What's your read on me after thatsit's flip? I was definitely heavily involved in the wagon and questioning process, so you should have some kind of opinion on that.

I don't think I've read up that far yet, or at least if I have you haven't stood out to me in a bad way.

My individual read on you so far is town enough that I'd likely want to look elsewhere for thatsit's partner if he flipped scum. So far I'm seeing what I think to be a lot of gamesolving attempts by you, and dynamic reads.

UNVOTE:

Don't want a hammer before I've read up fully.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.8

[2] thatsit (Manuel87, Accountant)
[1] Loopdan (Morning Tweet)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[3] Not Voting (NorskaBlue, thatsit, JaeReed)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 11:00:00)

[JaeReed]

Alright, I'm up to page 19, sorry I got lazy tbh.

Regardless of who is scum here, I want to say: You're playing very well.

That said, my reads right now are, from towniest to least town:

Accountant - I have seen them as scum before, and their play was shallow in retrospect. There is so much deep probing here and genuine scumhunting that if Accountant flips scum here I'll actually be incredibly surprised.
Transcend - This is slightly weaker than Accountant, and basically echoes Manuel's case for Transcend being town. I know Accountant has an issue with this slot, but I want them to truly consider whether they believe scum!Transcend is such a weak scum player so as to dodge questioning then replace out. I am strongly of the opinion that that's not Transcend as scum. I don't think Transcend as scum replaces out here, and he had the same idea as me about Norska's good post (evidenced by him saying he was town directly after it). Strong town. I think Loopdan needs to rely less on conftown for his cases, but that's more constructive criticism currently than a real issue.
Morning Tweet - I reviewed some of that scum game MT mentioned. Their play there was buddying and sort of passive at a glance. It's not a strong ride-or-die meta but it's good enough for me to feel their play here is town enough to be hard town in comparison.
Manuel - if thatsit flips scum this is townier than the rest. If thatsit flips town then this is a PoE, potentially with Loopdan meaning I had a wrong read on Transcend's ethics, or Norska. The push on Morning Tweet I wasn't a huge fan of, but honestly it's not exactly scum indicative on its own, and Accountant I think had a decent point that there were easier lynches to push. If it came to MT/Manuel I wouldn't know which to lynch, sorry.
Norska - One good post can be enough to discard a scumread, but everyone else is acting phenomenally town this game, so like I said, kudos to whoever the scumteam is if it's not the newbs at this stage. And if it's the newbs, you guys played the newbtown card fucking well. This is more PoE than anything.
thatsit - Again, this looks like lynchbait newbtown but there's no better lead for me to go off at this stage. If you're town I'm really sorry but the scumteam has been playing really well in that case.

VOTE: thatsit

That's back to L-1.

I'm comfortable with a hammer so far. I'll read up overnight and see what I can find in case I'm alive tomorrow. If we lynch the roleblocker then it was nice being in this game with you again Accountant, and it was nice seeing the rest of you for a brief period.

[Manuel87]

@JaeReed: Who do you think is the most likely scummbuddy if thatsit flips red?
Do you think thatsit + Norska is likely?

@Tweet: Who are you scumreading atm?