New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

interactions like this are part of why I think SAD is town, ftr.

legit don't know why anyone has that as a scum read

[MariaR]

He feels like he's faking everything and overplaying the "Wow I dislike this and should be lynched" card half his iso is bashing shadow he isn't doing anything

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Okay I'm more or less caught up. Here is the stuff I typed on notepad obv no spellcheck there so yeah.

Maria's page 79-80 is terrible (not really in the scummy way, in the wtf are you saying way). Idk how you want people to catch scum if literally no one shares reads or lists.

Arthur, mhsmith, pieguyn, parama, vedith, nahdia, kagami
I at least townlean you all (except mhsmith, null) and you're all competent and you're actually thinking the game through.
Help me through this endless purgatory.
From the seven people above, could I please have the following
1. Reads on Gamma, Mariar, Vedith and Shadow, and whether you believe we should lynch them or not. They're prime lynch targets right now, and I really think it's good for town to remove them because with the post flip information we can probably steamroll the game with a HS-Parama-Nahdia-Arthur townblock, or something similar.
2. A read on Cerb. I really need help sorting this slot out, I can't read him for shit and I'm getting 'Cerb is scum' from the exact same posts others are reading as 'Cerb is town'
3. A read on mhsmith. Obviously mhsmith is exempt from this. Again, I'm having a really difficult time sorting this slot.
4. Literally anything else you think might be helpful to save me from the black hole I feel myself slowly pulled into.

Jester/mds is irrelevant and can be solved another day.

Oh fuck, there I go buddying again, might as well lynch me tbh

1. Okay well both flipped town but at the time I had Vedith as strong scum and Gamma leaning scum. Rn without analyzing anything I have Maria as leaning town, Shadow as scum. He successfully seemed to dodge some people's suspicion by yelling and insulting and pretending to be angry at his lynch, but that doesn't change his alignment.
2. Useless townie? Idk I haven't really updated my read on him at all since a bunch of pages ago because he's been mia but I really got the feeling his reaction to Nahdia picking him was super genuine.
3. He's scummy and flying under the radar. He's also doing this thing where he points out stuff he's doing to say "hey look here I'm being helpful call me town".
4. This is kinda regarding #1 but I suggested much earlier on in the PT to inspector to have a townbloc of me-him, hs-parama, cerb-nahdia. My biggest fear with townblocs is that scum can slip in there, but again I feel like till much later in the game as long as we're organized with applying pressure we can figure the game out and then catch if a scum slipped into the bloc.

This is gonna sound super hypocritical, but Parama 2049 seriously like idk what you want when you only have 1 place you're pressuring, and even that you said "might actually be town".
Jester 2052 kinda bad he has had almost no pressure anywhere.
mhsmith baiting Vedith to leave in 2084 idk why no one calling him out on it. Basically saying "if Vedith doesn't leave he's scum" meanwhile thats telling town Vedith that he should leave otherwise it's gonna look bad.
I like Parama's push to get people to vote, and I like Cerb's response to Vedith to not leave dance. Both read as trying to find alternatives to do the anti-town thing.
Shadow's 2126 lol I'm telling you people how don't you see this guy playing the "too scummy to be scum" card. He's outright telling someone to leave the dance, but since hes not ~subtley~ saying it then he has nothing to hide!!
HS please don't set up lynches like that it always ends up going bad (page 86)
RE: Parama/Cerb about the plan, ?? I actually liked the plan I wish someone explained to me why having the scum play their hand early is a bad thing.
Oh dearie lol Gamma's 2156. I tried to not comment on the people flipped's posts too much cuz obv they're town, but I'm sorry that is one of the worst posts made in the entire game. It screams trying to divert attention.
MDS and Parama calling him out on it is godo. Mainly because I think most scum would've pulled back not to be assosciated badly knowing gamma flipping town. But it's def not far that one scum can do it to push Vedith over the edge (hint MDS).
MDS 2176 aren't you voting gamma wtf?
I'm not reading Vedith's long post sorry buddy boi. I did read the part about myself though cuz I'm a conceded shit so there's that Gald it was nothing concrete though just calling my ISO bullshit but I guarantee you I'm putting like a million percent more effort into the game.
LMAOOOOOOOOOOO mhsmiths 2228 HOLY LOOOl this guy just baitied someone into leaving dance and only after does the scum thing where he pretends he's mad and "no one else leave dance pls!!!!!!!"
Nahdia for the love of everything holy why are you useless.
Okay at least the list you give is decent. 2/3 I think ahve scum! (hint it's mhsmith and MDS)

If you want me evicted cast your fucking votes already. I seriously don't have patience for this. Just don't ignore my reads after I flip town.

That's basically how I imagine MDS's face irl playing this game btw.

I don't really get why I'm scum if MDS flips scum inspector but uhh sure I guess it's not even a bad deal to trade 1 for 1 b/c scum losing one in this setup relieves so much pressure.
Pie's 2281 first part feels genuine. Like it's one thing to call your partner suspicious when you have a lot of people lined up for scum b/c then you try to go for town points. I fele like saying "I barely have scumreads and I'm considering my partner" is different because you're bound to be called out on bs if you're doing that and then asked why you aren't going harder for your partner, which will make things awk.

[mhsmith0]

"Smith baited vedith into suiciding"
^citation needed

[mhsmith0]

Vedith, before you leave, consider the possibility of all 4 of us being Town. We need to lynch elsewhere to see if we're being set up before we make any final calls.

oh, you're scum
VOTE: gamma

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

I am pushing elsewhere. I'm not voting elsewhere because EVERYONE'S STUCK ON THE SAME THREE WAGONS

Yes, definitely not possible to start a new wagon and push an actual case.

If Vedith does decide to be an idiot and leave PLEASE think before blindly wagoning Shadow/MariaR.

I can't even tell if he's spewing them town or wolf here though

BECAUSE I THINK THEY COULD BE ALL TOWN
I WANT TO MAKE SURE WE'RE NOT IN A FALSE DICHOTOMY/TRICHOTOMY

Yeah but that's just generic. What makes you think that it's LIKELY that we have v/v/v wagons?

My posts between start of gamma push and gamma lynch. "Baiting" vedith into suiciding was where exactly?

[mhsmith0]

I fele like saying "I barely have scumreads and I'm considering my partner" is different because you're bound to be called out on bs if you're doing that and then asked why you aren't going harder for your partner, which will make things awk.

I bet people have asked her why she wasn't going after her partner then right?

[mhsmith0]

Does anyone have meta/history with pie? Does she play similar to Equinox? Because that's how I get the feeling from her posts and I feel like just reading her how I try to read Equinox because I have an extremely hard time distinguishing scum from town from that playstyle.

Pie has a fairly straightforward 2013 style and is a competent scum player. I don't know equinox well enough to comment on similarities.

If I were to guess, I'd say town-pie.

What in partuclar makes you think this? Like, specific posts that ping you town, or the way she's posted, or something else? She remains utterly null to me so far which is kinda annoying.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

"Smith baited vedith into suiciding"
^citation needed

mhsmith baiting Vedith to leave in 2084 idk why no one calling him out on it. Basically saying "if Vedith doesn't leave he's scum" meanwhile thats telling town Vedith that he should leave otherwise it's gonna look bad.

----------

I fele like saying "I barely have scumreads and I'm considering my partner" is different because you're bound to be called out on bs if you're doing that and then asked why you aren't going harder for your partner, which will make things awk.

I bet people have asked her why she wasn't going after her partner then right?

What?

[mhsmith0]

Pathetic shade throwing ^
That's how I read it and why exactly would scum! Vedith leave exactly

Scum!Vedith almost certainly wouldn't leave, unless he felt lynch inevitable and wanted to cut off discussion (and it's pretty early for that). So why ask the question?

That's utterly stupid. The point was shadow was asking a stupid question and I was explaining why. Reading a bait attempt there is crazy reachy.

[mhsmith0]

Also how could you miss the point discussed from 2305? You say that she's bound be be called out for potential BS and yet she HASNT been called out and even questioned for the lack of push on me, which basically invalidates your point.

So far there seems to be no curiosity about why she isn't pushing me, so why would you think it's "inevitable" that scum!her would get pushback if it's a bs'd thing?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Also how could you miss the point discussed from 2305? You say that she's bound be be called out for potential BS and yet she HASNT been called out and even questioned for the lack of push on me, which basically invalidates your point.

So far there seems to be no curiosity about why she isn't pushing me, so why would you think it's "inevitable" that scum!her would get pushback if it's a bs'd thing?

No I didn't understand what you said in 2305...

Anyway what I was originally saying was that if scum are saying (we'll use me as an example):

"I really have no idea who is scum anymore seriously I really think inspector is scum"

now compare that sentence with something like:

"I think mhsmith, MDS, shadow are scum. Even Dunn and Jester to a lesser degree I can see as scum. I also seriously have my doubts about inspector idk I really think he could be scum."

Now, which of those two sentences sounds more scummy?

If you have a lot of scumreads and you add your partner, it just looks like scum who's looking for town points by ~kinda~ scumreading their partner.

If a scum barely has any reads, they'll try to use bs to justify a read somewhere else, they don't want one of their few reads on their partner, because then later on they have to put up or shut up with their scumread on their partner. And that is disadvantageous for scum because then they'll have to be pushing against their pairing.

Therefore, what Pie said reads more coming from a townie mindset, as I don't see scum making that post.

[mhsmith0]

The problem with that idea is "later on". Pie hasn't positioned herself for a lengthy run here, which means that if she's a wolf, she's probably either going to try and get through a couple more mislynches before she goes, or she's willing to get bussed for town credit.

So "pie not playing to be the deep wolf" is I think probably accurate, but that doesn't actually make her town. I can see the argument that it comes more from a town mindset, but the fact remains the she HASNT gotten a push on that issue, which means that it's reasonably likely that she won't get flak in the very near future.

Ps the large quantity of posts in the game so far gives decent odds of that one being forgotten later on as well, which means that it'd be a very effective wolf post if from a wolf, but isn't disqualifying.

[pieguyn]

for the record, the only reason I'm on The_Jester and not mhsmith0 is that I'd like a chance to be able to discuss reads with Kagami with a scum flip on the table (and Nahdia if they're still alive).

if we lynch The_Jester (likely regardless of what he flips), or if we get a scum flip somewhere else, or if Kagami decides to ditch me and go ahead and vote us, then I likely will self vote (and SAD is correct that this approach kills me if I'm scum, since once one of these things happens I really have no option but to invent some reason to push someone else and I look like obvscum).

[Cerberus v666]

So you scumread your partner and they are your preferred lynch?

[pieguyn]

based on reads, I think they're the likeliest to flip scum, yes. situationally, not my #1 lynch choice because of what I said in my last post, but that goes away very soon.

[Cerberus v666]

Who are the most likely T/T pairs at this moment?

[pieguyn]

mhsmith0 feels really fucking off and I'm honestly considering a self vote because that's the only thing I feel even half-strongly about this game. I hated most of his posts in the past 10 or so pages, especially after GE flipping town.

I still think The_Jester is likely scum, too, but I'm not certain about it.

I still think SAD/inspectorscout is the most town pair. I think Dunn/Kagami is probably also town/town, but I'm not 100%.

I largely just want this day to end at this point. I'm ok with any of {jester/MDS, mhsmith0/me, no lynch}.

vote: The_Jester/MDS

your pair excluded

[Cerberus v666]

Where is shadow/Maria then? Nowhere on your radar even though they've been the primary topic of conversation for so long? Are they simply...not most likely scum, but not likely enough to be town?

[pieguyn]

I am not going to lie, I have mostly just skimmed every single thing related to them because it hasn't helped me at all in terms of getting strong reads (there are posts that I might read either way but as I said I'm not interested in forming detail reads on everyone, I'm interested in consolidating town reads on a pair where I'm strongly town reading both players). it's just endless back and forths.

I recall not finding the case on S_S compelling, but I don't have any particular strong town read on him and I have no read on Maria.

[Cerberus v666]

Hmm. Got it. Thanks pie!

[mhsmith0]

@scout:
It looks like youv only had one scum game on site (excluding marathon)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
And that was as a hydra. Is that correct?

[mhsmith0]

Just isod both scout and sad, they're probably a town pair, especially if THAT was scouts only scum game on record.

He's been tonally fine, content seems fine too, ditto most of his questions (apparently I'd found the really shitty one when I was on earlier).

Sad is super aggressive in a fairly hard to fake way, especially if he's been gone for years. Where he's been wrong it's more of an "I'm being an asshole" kind of wrong as opposed to using it to strongarm lynches or advance a partuclar agenda that I can see. 1721 was a good example of a town post, not for the content so much as for the contemptuous tone and the lack of an agenda, I.e. He's showing clear disgust with the game state, and it's being demonstrated rather than just stated, and it reads much more like an hijest expression of disgust than something played up for the crowd to create a TR.

[mhsmith0]

This feels like a rerun of this game. ISO Jester there and tell me if you still think he's scum.

@mds:
So it looks like you hydrad with jester as scum at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=69331
(That ones actually over btw, the one you referenced isn't, please don't discuss ongoing games)
So you ought to have an unusually fresh appreciation of his scum game. What exactly strikes you as being different here? Jester talked about why he trd you but I don't think I've seen the reverse.

[mhsmith0]

FUCK IT
I WILL LYNCH MYSELF RIGHT NOW IF YOU DO NOT PROMISE TO NEVER LEAVE
YOUR TOWNCRED IS GONE

if you think he's a possible wolf, push a case on him and see where it goes instead of suiciding like a dumbass.

(smith does more setup talk)

Smith's done fuck all this game.

@SAD: re your baiting theory. I'd made the point a couple times that suiciding was idiotic, and one of those times vedith explicitly engaged me on it. Note that this was made a little bit after my "baiting" post, and the point was front and center, as opposed to being just part of the discussion ala my issue with shadows stupid question.

[mhsmith0]

Now, with that said, I don't believe any town lady should so blithely accept a dance from any gentleman. This is a chance to weed out a villain in our midst, or force the villains to dance together at the least.

Speaking of which...2 mafia gentlemen, one lady? Vice versa? Anyone have any thoughts on what's more likely?

Found the first scum. First, town have no bussiness pairing with IC cause that doesn't amount to them solving the game in any way. That overblown explanation in #98 looks like nervous scum. Second, that 'innocent' setup spec question looks like taken straight outta scumbook.

Pedit I can't fucking post cause every time I hit submit there's a new post. Please

Slight wolf equity for this post, since it's a bit over-explained and essentially boils down to scum-reading a bunch of null things.

HS stop using activity as a fucking indicator of anything. I'm at work not being able to keep up with such volume of posting with the little time I have right now. I post when I decide it's time, if you think you'll get towncred for calling me out then you're wrong. Right now it looks like you're spamming for the sake of it.
And I'm not a "her", fuck off.

Ditto, but here for beetlejuicing and ignoring the primary accusation (post 146 itself, including the distancing logic) in favor of defending against just the activity portion.

I'm not townleaning vedith.
Please read the thread.

That post literally does not even make sense. That's an empty jab at a stone wall.

I will happily answer any questions you have but I must ask you to word them a little more legibly.

Please contain your fucking ego cause I seriously have enough of you discrediting what I say by making that same shit argument of "being scared" and "avoiding the thread" based on nothing but activity. I saw what I thought was discrepancy, asked you to elaborate, why can't you do just that instead of acting all superior and shit?

Ignores what HS said, instead defends against activity charge.

Yeah, you're not attacking me at all.
Ok restating it so you understand

HS SAY VEDITH BAD CAUSE VEDITH DULL
VEDITH ACT DULL HS SAY VEDITH GOOD
IF JESTER WRONG OK JUST ASK

I was gonna say this was wrong on first read but jesters correct, and after seeing that, 1109 was a pretty good question to ask.

@HS to put it simply, this useless talk could've ended with your #1100 but you just had to provoke me in #1118. Get what I mean? Ok let's stop this.

I'm null on this one. I guess I can see interpreting 1118 as a provocation as being reasonable, but I view it more as a follow up to 1110, with the issue being lack of clarity, and HS then presuming that jester didn't swear because he couldn't.


Overall, jester had a sketchy opening but he's been improving, which is enough to not really give me massive motivation to see him dead. I'm concerned that I'm over-valuing a single particularly good question to HS and follow-up, but I guess I'd need to see exactly what the scum case here is, since this seems mainly null to me.

@jester: you've stated a few times that you think shadow is town. What's driving this read? You've stated it a bunch of times but haven't explained it yet, and given that he's a player under suspicion, I feel like this should be a priority given your contrarian take.