Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Accountant]

I think the point on Transcend makes sense, but even if his dodging questioning is considered NAI, the fact does remain that I was questioning them for a reason. I understand that Loopdan can't be expected to account for Transcend's actions, but having an unexplained hard town read in a game where you've shown indecisiveness and paranoia is scummy as fuck and

reeks

of buddying.

[Accountant]

@Mod: thatsit is on indefinite V/LA. What's your policy for if he just flakes and never comes back? I don't mean to imply he will, but flaking is common in newbies, and we can't sit around forever.

[borkjerfkin]

Giving him 24h to at least give an end date for his V/LA. Note that this still may leave him on V/LA over deadline.

[JaeReed]

Accountant, would meta help you in this case? I can give two scum games of Transcend's fairly recently, I know as town he tends to do reaction reads quite a bit and sticks with them if nothing pings him as off about the person. One off-site and one on. I don't remember how much stock you place into meta but I feel like Transcend relies more on playing the gutread scum game as scum rather than the gutread town type. He also seems to revert to insults over anything useful when he's feeling like he's backed into a corner. I don't see that here.

https://epicmafia.com/topic/79723
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68870

The scumgames. Note the first one I've found to be finicky on mobile.

[JaeReed]

Since I'm at L-2 atm, I won't claim even if I get to L-1. I'll claim only if I see a bolded intent to hammer. We already have one PR outed; I don't want another PR dead within the next two days.

This is the only thing keeping me from voting Misa right now. I'd expect scum to read the thread more closely than

that

.

MT just took a train up in my townreads. I'm not sure where

to

exactly but this shit right here is the kind of stuff I don't expect to see from scum. Also MT was the only one to directly call out that 2 PRs had claimed up to this point which fits with the frustration side of things.

[JaeReed]

Manuel v. Tweet is TvT.

Manuel is town because I think scum!Manuel would sit on a lurker rather than push you. You're town for the same reasons Transcend is - you've been making consistently solid posts and your thought process is clear and I think oriented towards trying to identify and lynch scum. While it's not to say that scum can't make solid posts, I think it's much harder for scum to fake that kind of mindset. Scum trying to look town usually make posts that look good on the surface but that don't contribute much to actual scumhunting, but I didn't get the impression at your posts are shallow.

Furthermore, the easy way in which everyone else seems to be letting you two fight or focusing on your fight seems to me to be a sign of either apathy or scum who is more than happy to let two town members go at each other tooth and nail. In particular I think townies would try to push their own scumreads rather than try to make the decision into a false dichotomy of Manuel vs Tweet. This is why Misa's lack of scumreads is very concerning to me - I think she doesn't have any so she can go "well, I don't have anyone to push, so I'll just pick between Manuel and Tweet".

If I'm wrong on my townreads there is Manuel/Accountant potential.

[Accountant]

I don't put that much stock in meta, but I can buy your characterization of Transcend, I suppose.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.9

[3] thatsit (Manuel87, Accountant, JaeReed)
[1] Loopdan (Morning Tweet)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[2] Not Voting (NorskaBlue, thatsit)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 11:00:00)

[Loopdan]

I will hammer thatsit after bork's deadline for providing an end-date to his V/LA.

@thatsit-- If you log-in to give an end-date, please also post your final reads.

[Morning Tweet]

UNVOTE:

No surprise counter-wagons from me. Jae is killing it right now imo

I think thatsit has the highest chance of being scum, but I'm having a bit of trouble reasoning who his partner is.

Manuel and Jae wouldn't be. I believe Norska is town regardless.

My Transcend/Loopdan read pretty much slipped away since the replace, but so far I've disagreed with most of Loopdan's posting. While I don't have much experience with meta reading, Transcend was demotivated to the point of replacing out. If that isn't something he'd do as scum I see no reason for him to fake it.

And then there's Accountant. Accountant Accountant Accountant. By PoE, I would consider Accountant his most likely scumbuddy.

What about a thatsit!town world? Again, Jae and Norska are town.

Which leaves Accountant, Manuel, and Loopdan. I'm most comfortable lynching Accountant in this scenario. Loopdan/Manuel feels unlikely, and I have a preference of Manuel/Accountant to Loopdan/Accountant.

I realize my reads (barring Accountant) are similar to JaeRead's. I ended up refraining from posting yesterday because I didn't feel like I was adding anything new. However with a lynch seemingly drawing near, I'm compelled to give my take on the game before we head into nighttime.

This is the only thing keeping me from voting Misa right now. I'd expect scum to read the thread more closely than

that

.

this shit right here is the kind of stuff I don't expect to see from scum.

..

thanks

[Loopdan]

@MT-- You believe Accountant is likely scum regardless of how thatsit flips.

So why aren't you pushing a lynch on Accountant?

[Morning Tweet]

When I started to write that I thought I'd have more differing reads depending on thatsit's flip. By PoE Accountant ends up on the bottom regardless, though.

That being said I still think thatsit is most likely scum. Even in a town!thatsit scenario, Accountant could be town with a Loopdan/Manuel team. That's not the direction I lean with town!thatsit, but Transcend/Loopdan would have to be my weakest townread compared to the others.

[Accountant]

@MT: And Norska?

[Accountant]

Oh, you said you believed he was town regardless. I'm not sure why. Sure, if thatsit flips scum Norska is cleared, but why is he town if thatsit flips town?

[Morning Tweet]

Oh mb, I probably shouldn't have grouped him with Jae. Norska is my second favourite town pick, and I believe he's town regardless of thatsit's flip.

As a side note,

The way I worded it also came across as agreeing with your "thatsit/Norska can't be scum, they would have killed Charloux" clear. I thought for sure by the end of day one everybody noticed WCS's soft, but Norska today admitted he didn't and I just now checked thatsit's ISO. Sure enough, he didn't seem to realize either. I buy it now.

[Accountant]

Why do you think Norska is town? I've seen some okay looking posts, but I'm not a fan of his fencesitting, no matter how much he lampshades it.

[JaeReed]

Spoiler:

Hell of a first game. I'm confident that Acc and Transcend are town, and Char seems to be clear. After that, it gets kinda murky for me.

WCS is very erratic, jumping from people being conf town to conf scum and back again. But I'm starting to think that's just how he posts rather than anything nefarious.

Leaning town with Tweet for similar reasons to A and T; ie, she is asking questions and making reasonable judgements.

Feels like Misa is playing a very quiet devil's advocate. Seems like a lot of her posts are made just to deflate peoples lines of thought without really taking a stance herself. Although she did say in #352 she tends to be a 'support-class townie'. I don't know if that's a thing or not.

Got nothing on thatsit. Very low activity, not really pushing the discussion, but then again, neither have I. As a newbie, I share his sentiment in post #404 (not found) that it can be difficult to contribute, due to (for me at least) not yet having a grasp on the meta and techniques that are more familiar for experienced players. Whether thatsit's newbiness is genuine or a cover, I am not the one to judge.

Manuel is pretty neutral to me. Going over his ISO, there's nothing that really jumps out as particularly towny or scummy. I do wish he'd spell my name right though.

Putting that in order from most-town to least-town:
{Accountant, Charloux}
{Transcend}
{Morning Tweet}
{WCSBO, Manuel}
{thatsit}
{MisaTange}

VOTE: MisaTange, which puts him on L-2, I think.

Been rereading isos (and honestly been reading them like "What does scum have to gain by posting this?" as a last resort) and here are my results:

{Char, WCSBO}
{Accountant, Transcend, Norska}
{Morning Tweet}
{Manuel}
{thatsit}

Char is the uncc'd Doc and WCSBO has constantly been softing whatever the other PR is. So they're pretty much cleared.

Accountant

: I'll clarify I don't have a strong townlean on them. The first half of their iso is pretty bad imo since I'm not sure whether they're playing from a town perspective or an IC perspective. Posts like 42 (the meta post), 28, 45, 68, 172 feel like directing players what to feel rather than a genuine attempt to scumhunt. But then there's the second half. Posts like 187, 195, 282 and 293 (It's important to note that that post is what makes me feel the strongest about town!Accountant, not necessarily protecting our doctor, who Accountant mainly pushed).

Transcend

: I still feel decently about a town!Transcend. I understand his thought process throughout his iso and I agree with most of his points. Nothing that can't be faked by scum imo but I still feel that way about a town!Transcend.

Norska

: Townlean, but only because of 207 for reasons that other people have stated. Otherwise, all of their other posts are easily fakeable as scum. Also can be solved by posting more, but hey.

Morning Tweet

: I'll be honest and I shoddily put this on here because her posts are easily fakeable as scum as well but I'm exhausted.

Manuel

: Scumlean, but only because I don't see posts that can be easily as fakeable as scum, even with the argument.

thatsit

: To clarify: Slight scumread. My main problem with this person can generally can be solved by posting more, but I dislike 404. "Don't know what to contribute" when there was some soft back and forth between Norska and WCSBO at the time, so that there are plenty to comment on. Also, the early, vague fos on WCSBO just because he's talking a lot is weird.

VOTE: Thatsit

Sheep these two reads lists is kinda where I'm at rn. I think that'll net a town victory. Obviously, look at associates once you get a scum flip. If I'm around tomorrow I'll do ISO'ing and VCA. If not, that's my stance. Also not a fan of Morning Tweet kinda buddying up to me in 809.

[Accountant]

Also not a fan of Morning Tweet kinda buddying up to me in 809.

LOL Jae did you get paranoid about people with similar reads/thought processes to you after Nahdia's Mini

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.10

[3] thatsit (Manuel87, Accountant, JaeReed)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[3] Not Voting (NorskaBlue, thatsit, Morning Tweet)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 11:00:00)

[borkjerfkin]

thatsit did not pick up my inquiry. I will replace the slot.

[borkjerfkin]

thinkbig replaces thatsit.

Adding 36 hours to the deadline due to extenuating circumstances.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 2.11

[3] ThinkBig (Manuel87, Accountant, JaeReed)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[3] Not Voting (NorskaBlue, thinkbig, Morning Tweet)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-11 23:00:00)

[ThinkBig]

Hello all. It is a pleasure to join this game. Give me some time to catch up.

[Accountant]

Welcome, ThinkBig! Though unless something drastic happens, you're probably going to get hammered.

[ThinkBig]

Then I shall claim while I am catching up. I am a vanilla townie.

Accountant, what's the current case against my slot?