New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Cerberus v666]

What's your reason for asking me what my reason for mentioning it is? Is there any answer I could possibly give that's more helpful to town than scum?

[Dunnstral]

Other than that, he's adopted my fatalistic attitude to a degree and

occasionally gloated about Human Sequencer's expression after we both flip town, which I thought was also genuine.

There's also the fact he keeps 'testing' me every now and then and doesn't blindly accept that I'm town, which I think is not what scum!Jester would do (I think he'd try to butter me up instead).

Jester/mds is irrelevant and can be solved another day.

Where does HS say they think jester/MDS pair is scum? Why would Jester be gloating about their expression, or mention her?

[Dunnstral]

What's your reason for asking me what my reason for mentioning it is? Is there any answer I could possibly give that's more helpful to town than scum?

So you're going to play that card huh

How is what you just said about Nahdia's suspicion on you more helpful to town than scum?

[mhsmith0]

When I'm not sure the target will flip scum, yeah.

Also the fact that you're not reading my posts and said something like "are me and pie the only ones who don't tr each other"

wrt 1893, read the last couple pages before that post. HS-Parama mutual TR, MR-shadow seemed pretty comfortable with each other (though re-skimming a TR wasn't explicit around that point), Gamma was hard TR'ing Vedith, and SAD-scout had been pro each other sometime back (IIRC Jester-MDS had been comfortable w each othertoo). So the idea that there were a bunch of seemingly cheap partner town reads floating around was IMO pretty accurate (though sure, you seem to be an exclusion from that).

[MiniDeathStar]

Where does HS say they think jester/MDS pair is scum? Why would Jester be gloating about their expression, or mention her?

Have you been reading? She's kept repeating it for a while now.

[Dunnstral]

Where?

All I've seen is a shadow push

[Cerberus v666]

....

....

That's essentially the same question I already refused to answer.

[Dunnstral]

When I'm not sure the target will flip scum, yeah.

Also the fact that you're not reading my posts and said something like "are me and pie the only ones who don't tr each other"

wrt 1893, read the last couple pages before that post. HS-Parama mutual TR, MR-shadow seemed pretty comfortable with each other (though re-skimming a TR wasn't explicit around that point), Gamma was hard TR'ing Vedith, and SAD-scout had been pro each other sometime back (IIRC Jester-MDS had been comfortable w each othertoo). So the idea that there were a bunch of seemingly cheap partner town reads floating around was IMO pretty accurate (though sure, you seem to be an exclusion from that).

I had a lot of posts that was the exclusion from that, you didn't acknowledge any of them and said that so I assume you hadn't read them or cared.

[mhsmith0]

This too but I can see why you wouldn't want to quote it

I didn't say you weren't doing anything (as in lurking out)

You've been posting but it seems you post to not get lynched, rather than to find scum.

I don't know why you're confused by my vote, but you shouldn't be.

I'm kinda curious about this one. What exactly do you mean by that? There seems to be an implication here that I'm being fundamentally survivalistic (bandwagoning? UTR? something else?), or that my questions or just for show, or something similar. What exactly are you seeing that makes you think this?

[Dunnstral]

....

....

That's essentially the same question I already refused to answer.

Noted.

[Dunnstral]

This too but I can see why you wouldn't want to quote it

I didn't say you weren't doing anything (as in lurking out)

You've been posting but it seems you post to not get lynched, rather than to find scum.

I don't know why you're confused by my vote, but you shouldn't be.

I'm kinda curious about this one. What exactly do you mean by that? There seems to be an implication here that I'm being fundamentally survivalistic (bandwagoning? UTR? something else?), or that my questions or just for show, or something similar. What exactly are you seeing that makes you think this?

I didn't say you were survivalistic, I said you were posting to not get lynched (i.e. you're not lurking out because you don't want to be "policy" lynched)
It doesn't look like you're trying to figure the game out (in terms of player's alignments; setup spec doesn't matter)

[mhsmith0]

I had a lot of posts that was the exclusion from that, you didn't acknowledge any of them and said that so I assume you hadn't read them or cared.

Probably because I hadn't done much more than skim them, which is consistent with my having not really paid that much attention to you. In your opinion, is having (or at least displaying) a lack of awareness of what you've been saying representative of my caring too much about pushes on me (and by extension, your push)?

[Dunnstral]

which is consistent with my having not really paid that much attention to you.

Why?

[Dunnstral]

In your opinion, is having (or at least displaying) a lack of awareness of what you've been saying representative of my caring too much about pushes on me (and by extension, your push)?

It means you're not reading or responding to posts where I'm trying to gamesolve.

[mhsmith0]

I didn't say you were survivalistic, I said you were posting to not get lynched (i.e. you're not lurking out because you don't want to be "policy" lynched)
It doesn't look like you're trying to figure the game out (in terms of player's alignments; setup spec doesn't matter)

So your take on me is that I'm basically just active lurking then? Do my engagements on/about scout, gamma, and jester look like non-solving, or is it just that I haven't had enough of them?

PS I find it fascinating that "smith is mainly setup speccing" seems to be a continued perspective on this game, given how little I've actually been making such posts. Are people just sheeping SAD's "OMG smith is just setup speccing" stuff or have people actually been reading me and for real think this?

[mhsmith0]

which is consistent with my having not really paid that much attention to you.

Why?

Because you had nearly 400 posts and it's a pain to go through all of them, and I don't recall anything having especially pinged me as scummy while skimming. Why do you think that I should have been paying more attention to you?

[Dunnstral]

I'm being serious though. Half the town obviously has some level of scumread on us, and I don't think anybody *alive* is considering us town-town, but we aren't getting enough votes. The mafia are saving us for the final mislynch.

How to play to wincon in this setup, vs what people are actually likely to do, by smith

If you're a villager

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, you should still fight it and ensure that if you are lynched, maximal information is gained from the loss (and if it turns out your partner is a wolf, even better to actually have the process be an actual lynch)
Villagers will actually tend to give up because "I'm helping the town since I'm going down anyway" (even though they flagrantly aren't helping the town while doing this) or "screw you guys for suspecting me" (because it's easier than actually engaging meaningfully with the stated suspicions). This is because villagers tend to be lazy about considering what it means to be a villager, and/or tend to take self-destructive moves out of pique.

If you're a wolf

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, wolves should leave the dance to deprive town of useful voting information
Wolves will actually tend to fight their lynch though because they're survivalistic in nature, and/or underestimate the chance that they'll actually get lynched

This has been a PSA by smith. You're welcome.

I'd define this as setup spec and not gamesolving.

Also, it looks like you're setting up here to justify pushes on people who fight their lynch (oh they must be scum)

And then you actually do that:

@Maria: It seems like you're being a bit survivalistic lately, which is a bit weird to me given how flagrantly you gave up in open 646. Am I over-valuing that one game in terms of your meta under fire? Are there other games you can point to where you're relatively more interested in fighting your lynch when town?

[Dunnstral]

Because you had nearly 400 posts and it's a pain to go through all of them, and I don't recall anything having especially pinged me as scummy while skimming. Why do you think that I should have been paying more attention to you?

So you're underestimating me even after stack the deck

[Dunnstral]

Do my engagements on/about scout, gamma, and jester look like non-solving, or is it just that I haven't had enough of them?

Stuff like this, which you link, doesn't look like you trying to figure things out.

Vedith, before you leave, consider the possibility of all 4 of us being Town. We need to lynch elsewhere to see if we're being set up before we make any final calls.

oh, you're scum
VOTE: gamma

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

I am pushing elsewhere. I'm not voting elsewhere because EVERYONE'S STUCK ON THE SAME THREE WAGONS

Yes, definitely not possible to start a new wagon and push an actual case.

If Vedith does decide to be an idiot and leave PLEASE think before blindly wagoning Shadow/MariaR.

I can't even tell if he's spewing them town or wolf here though

BECAUSE I THINK THEY COULD BE ALL TOWN
I WANT TO MAKE SURE WE'RE NOT IN A FALSE DICHOTOMY/TRICHOTOMY

Yeah but that's just generic. What makes you think that it's LIKELY that we have v/v/v wagons?

My posts between start of gamma push and gamma lynch. "Baiting" vedith into suiciding was where exactly?

[mhsmith0]

I'd define this as setup spec and not gamesolving.

Also, it looks like you're setting up here to justify pushes on people who fight their lynch (oh they must be scum)

And then you actually do that:

That post was setup-related, but relatively few of mine are. The point was they were a very clear minority of what I've done.

wrt fighting lynch, the point there was that towns SHOULD fight their lynch, instead of suiciding like idiots. It's true that town at times doesn't do that, but they should. Given that we already had one game-thrower suicide instead of fighting his lynch, I thought it was worth repeating the point that suiciding is beyond idiotic in this game. Thus the whole "villagers tend to act like idiots under pressure in this game but really shouldn't".

wrt Maria, that related to her specific meta, where in open 646 she not only didn't fight her lynch but actually self-hammered (and she knows full well how trash I think that play was, especially when I bitched to her in PM about burgerking doing the same trash play in the game she modded as her sonia alt). My point was that I wanted to know whether she could provide evidence on whether or not her performance in open 646 was a one-off, or whether it was actually reasonable to read into it. Given that "oh yeah __ __ and __ are games where I did this as town" was a potentially really easy response (and indeed she did provide self-meta on that point, though only on one game), I completely fail to see your argument there.
see

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68243

you were in this game but you can basically look at any EM game to see I fight my lynch quite hard as either side

Because you had nearly 400 posts and it's a pain to go through all of them, and I don't recall anything having especially pinged me as scummy while skimming. Why do you think that I should have been paying more attention to you?

So you're underestimating me even after stack the deck

No, I've realized that I'm not much good at reading you, and so you're not a primary focus. I'd be fine with POEing your slot if I had a bunch of strong town reads.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Do my engagements on/about scout, gamma, and jester look like non-solving, or is it just that I haven't had enough of them?

Stuff like this, which you link, doesn't look like you trying to figure things out.

Vedith, before you leave, consider the possibility of all 4 of us being Town. We need to lynch elsewhere to see if we're being set up before we make any final calls.

oh, you're scum
VOTE: gamma

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

Obviously the risk there is that people WON'T be able to come to accords adn we'll end up losing because town can't get their shit together and agree on a lynch.

This is my main issue. With how the dynamic between me/Vedith and MariaR/ShadowStep is, lynching in first dance IS in our best interest so we can sort some slots before we enter the crunch time of second dance.

^this was gamma's old opinion btw, now just a generic "maybe we shoudl lynch elsewhere" (while still voting SS and not pushing elsewhere)

I am pushing elsewhere. I'm not voting elsewhere because EVERYONE'S STUCK ON THE SAME THREE WAGONS

Yes, definitely not possible to start a new wagon and push an actual case.

If Vedith does decide to be an idiot and leave PLEASE think before blindly wagoning Shadow/MariaR.

I can't even tell if he's spewing them town or wolf here though

BECAUSE I THINK THEY COULD BE ALL TOWN
I WANT TO MAKE SURE WE'RE NOT IN A FALSE DICHOTOMY/TRICHOTOMY

Yeah but that's just generic. What makes you think that it's LIKELY that we have v/v/v wagons?

My posts between start of gamma push and gamma lynch. "Baiting" vedith into suiciding was where exactly?

2304 was questioning SAD on his ridiculous assertion that I was "baiting" vedith into suiciding. Which of 2157 (scum-reading gamma for that post), 2160 (explaining my read), 2166 (attacking gamma's self-defense), 2167 (reaction to what looked like WIFOM on a wolf who might have been about to die), 2178 (pushing back against Gamma's generic point that they COULD be v/v/v and asking him to substantiate why he thought it was likely [since a generic "well anything's possible" sort of point was very obviously useless] ).

Which of those look like non-solving to you? I'll grant you 2167 as just a reaction post not being useful, but the others look pretty solvey to me.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW I think it's bizarre that MDS and Dunn are pushing me (after open 658 I feel like they'd naturally be the LEAST likely people here to be pushing on me), while most others aren't. I feel like if pie is town, at least one of MDS/Dunn are decently likely to be wolves too just from the push. Really not sure what it means in a world where pie is also a wolf though; like, it could be weird distancing I guess, but I'm super not sold on that being necessarily the case.

[MiniDeathStar]

No, Smith, I don't think it's at all bizarre that both of us are pushing you. I really am not seeing the Smith from 658 here, with the wagonomics and the predictions. You were also much less defensive in that game.

Why oh why did you have to roll scum? This game would've been so much easier if you were on our side.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: mhsmith-pieguyn

mhsmith is thoroughly underwhelming this game

No, Smith, I don't think it's at all bizarre that both of us are pushing you. I really am not seeing the Smith from 658 here, with the wagonomics and the predictions. You were also much less defensive in that game.

Why oh why did you have to roll scum? This game would've been so much easier if you were on our side.

It'd be nice is there was good voting data I could use to actually analyze. Instead Vedith suicided, completely fucking up any kind of useful data to be gotten from the first death. Like, when a d1 wagon really gets going, it can be super interesting to see who's doing what and why, who's pushing against it, who gets nervous, who's willing to hammer, etc. Suiciding prevents that kind of data from ever existing (and that's the data you REALLY need in order to solve the game down the road), which is why it's such absolute garbage play in this format. So if lack of wagonomics-based reads is a concern, go ahead and blame Vedith for game-throwing, because I'm not going to eat the blame for that one.

As far as the rest goes, I do think it's bizarre that the push against me is coming largely from you two, who I would think should know me a bit better than most others here. Like, "smith isn't doing much" is generically suspicious, and I wouldn't be at all shocked to see some level of push on me for it (for instance, SAD's earlier push, while obnoxious and at times kinda misreppy, does read like he actually believed it).

Frankly, the lack of said push is a reason that I continue to be concerned that it could just be pie as a wolf, when it's a reasonably easy argument for wolves to jump on. I suppose it's possible that wolves are hoping that she'd just suicide down the road and ware just waiting for that to happen, but I'm not especially convinced of it, and because of that the nature of the current game state just feels weird to me, and honeslty I'm not sure what to make of it.

PS Feel free to keep doubting me I guess, but you'll eventually figure it out (if you're town anyway).

[mhsmith0]

btw I'm going out for a few hours, will be back sometime tonight.