New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[mhsmith0]

I mean I don't know about you guys, but if I were scum I would def go for an early distancing on one of my buddies (and put the other somewhere between leaning town-to town?)

But putting an early distancing is super important for scum because if one of them flips, then the other can coast to late game and possibly endgame because of freelo townie-points.

Sure, I guess i can maybe see that at least on a theory basis. Idk if she'd actually be capable of carrying that off effectively as scum, but I don't know why you'd be making a presumption one way or the other there.

[mhsmith0]

^so i guess I don't have an issue w you making that read, even tho it's wrong.

[mhsmith0]

@HS, @Dunn: you two should talk to each other about me. I'll grab popcorn and watch.

I still want this to happen by the way.

[Dunnstral]

If Hs wants to talk to me they can.

[mhsmith0]

Kinda want to see that happen, annoyed HS popped in and just left. Maybe he's back tomorow?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I mean I don't know about you guys, but if I were scum I would def go for an early distancing on one of my buddies (and put the other somewhere between leaning town-to town?)

But putting an early distancing is super important for scum because if one of them flips, then the other can coast to late game and possibly endgame because of freelo townie-points.

Sure, I guess i can maybe see that at least on a theory basis. Idk if she'd actually be capable of carrying that off effectively as scum, but I don't know why you'd be making a presumption one way or the other there.

Are you talking about Parama or MDS.

If it's Parama I can def see her going for the long con early on with a "scum-slip" and push that early for super townie-points off of bussing. She started to catch my eye when she kept doing this pull-in and out where she like says she wants shadow lynch, then would find something and say "oh that kinda looks town". But then when questioned she said "oh not I still think shadow is still def scum" (2513). It seems superficial. It's like when/if shadow flips scum she can then go "I've been pushing him this entire time" meanwhile she's opportunistically pushing other wagons (like me). I called her out earlier when I said she only has 1 read and she got tight but she really did have close to 1 strong read at that time, indicating she wanted to sit on it for a while so it's ingrained in people's minds that she was pushing shadow.

If you're talking about MDS, I can see the argument between you two and the case she has on you as being similar to Parama (I guess to a lesser extent which is why I'm not as confident about your pairing, I feel like if scum were going for an early buss/distancing they would have done it super hardcore because they would need the gambit to reach them to endgame). But still, her shade throwing like 1259 not only feels like she's subtly asking for reactions to see if town is agreeing with the read (which scum want to do to try and lessen controversial reads) but also something that seemed superficial and not something I see with a town-mindset immediately focusing on. I get the feeling she knows you're scum -> tries to then paint a picture with something you say as scummy, so then she can go "oh look I called out smith's bs early on".

[inspectorscout]

@mhsmith: you say the people pushing you are possibly scum...isn't that kind of omgus?

Anyway, I'm sorry ive been slacking, school is being ridiculous right now

The discussion about mhsmith made me reconsider my read on HS a bit

[MiniDeathStar]

Arthur, if you think I'm scum with smith, then help me bus him now. Thanks.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also, I really don't like Human Sequencer dropping these random townreads. If smith's town, Kagami's town, Arthur's town, then who is left to be the scum? Shadow, Jester, and? Cerberus? You?

You don't *actually* think Maria or I are scum together with our partners, do you?

[Human Sequencer]

@mhsmith and dunn

I'm being serious though. Half the town obviously has some level of scumread on us, and I don't think anybody *alive* is considering us town-town, but we aren't getting enough votes. The mafia are saving us for the final mislynch.

How to play to wincon in this setup, vs what people are actually likely to do, by smith

If you're a villager

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, you should still fight it and ensure that if you are lynched, maximal information is gained from the loss (and if it turns out your partner is a wolf, even better to actually have the process be an actual lynch)
Villagers will actually tend to give up because "I'm helping the town since I'm going down anyway" (even though they flagrantly aren't helping the town while doing this) or "screw you guys for suspecting me" (because it's easier than actually engaging meaningfully with the stated suspicions). This is because villagers tend to be lazy about considering what it means to be a villager, and/or tend to take self-destructive moves out of pique.

If you're a wolf

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, wolves should leave the dance to deprive town of useful voting information
Wolves will actually tend to fight their lynch though because they're survivalistic in nature, and/or underestimate the chance that they'll actually get lynched

This has been a PSA by smith. You're welcome.

this is like one of the best, most insightful and most pro-town posts in the game, and you can't say he just did it for town cred.
why not?
because it's not an effective way for smith to get towncred if people have spent half the game berating him for doing nothing but setup speculation.
i don't think anybody can argue what he's saying isn't true, and it's clear smith knows what he's saying because he's saying it (lol). bringing light to it does not make sense for a scummy scum. scumSmith has no motivation whatsoever to make that post, and it harms his win condition -greatly-

Also, I really don't like Human Sequencer dropping these random townreads. If smith's town, Kagami's town, Arthur's town, then who is left to be the scum? Shadow, Jester, and? Cerberus? You?

You don't *actually* think Maria or I are scum together with our partners, do you?

this post is so bad
remember the whole 'i'm partnering with jester regardless of alignment' thing? remember that whole saga? i do. the fact that you paired w/ jester is nai, it doesn't point against you both being scum because you were a lock pairing, in the same way that i was asking parma to dance at the start of this game.
i'm not trying to insinuate that you -are- both scum, i'm pointing out the fact that you have said something completely contradictory with something you've said earlier in a dismissive tone in a way that looks like an intentional discredit.

as for the first half of the post, here's another interpretation

I don't like Human reading town as town, solving the game and using PoE to find scum. I'm going to discredit the approach by making an absurd logical leap to make him look bad.

Spoiler: confirmation on pieguyn's alignment

should I stay, dear? or should I make both of us feel the sweet embrace of death together?~

here's a fun idea.

if mhsmith0 wants to live, he gets on his hands and knees and ~begs~ for it. that sounds fun, right?

[MiniDeathStar]

this is like one of the best, most insightful and most pro-town posts in the game, and you can't say he just did it for town cred.

I disagree. He just rehashed what was said before about villagers leaving vs wolves leaving.

this post is so bad

No, it's not. Even if you take the "pre-decided pairings" as an argument why we *could* be scum together, we still have less than 2% chance of actually being scum together. Not to mention since mafia have daychat, we've had plenty of time to decide what to do if we rolled scum together.

So like, please don't.

As far as your "POE" goes, exactly what's stopping scum!you from 'poe'ing your partners? Because it definitely starts to look that way. The way you've been POEing people, you're starting to run out of possible scum. Right now you're down to my pair, Shadow's pair and Cerb's pair. Just putting that out there for when you start backtracking in case one or more of us flip town/town.

[Human Sequencer]

alright let's stop the misrep and see where my reads actually are huh?

lock town:
{arthur, parama}

probably town:
{smith, pie, scout, kagami}

unsure:
{dunn, cerb, mds}

scummy scum:
{shadow, mariar, jester}

that leaves a whole six slots to find scum in, and only 4 of them are paired.
are you going to rethink your stance now that you have more detailed information, or do you think 2735 is still a valid post with valid points?

[Human Sequencer]

also you miss the point of my post, i clearly did not argue that you were scum together. read it again.
'i'm not trying to insinuate that you -are- both scum, i'm pointing out the fact that you have said something completely contradictory with something you've said earlier in a dismissive tone in a way that looks like an intentional discredit.'

[pieguyn]

we still have less than 2% chance of actually being scum together

if you think this makes {you, Jester} more unlikely than any other set of two scum reads then you have no idea of how probability works

[pieguyn]

Spoiler: confirmation on pieguyn's alignment

should I stay, dear? or should I make both of us feel the sweet embrace of death together?~

here's a fun idea.

if mhsmith0 wants to live, he gets on his hands and knees and ~begs~ for it. that sounds fun, right?

you're a kind gentleman, though. it would feel wrong for me to do that to you :<

[MiniDeathStar]

Fair, discard the point about POE then.

I also think it's weird that you so firmly believe Maria and Shadow are scum together, but I don't see how scum!you would benefit from taking that stance. I just think it's ridiculous.

[Human Sequencer]

I DO NOT FIRMLY BELIEVE MARIAR AND SHADOW ARE SCUM TOGETHER
PLEASE READ

[Human Sequencer]

arthur is still locktown

@parama
i did not say both mariar and shadow would flip scum, i said i wouldn't be surprised if that was the case, even if it's unlikely.
i posted this in my pt, putting it here to clarify

[MariaR]

alright let's stop the misrep and see where my reads actually are huh?

lock town:
{arthur, parama}

probably town:
{smith, pie, scout, kagami}

unsure:
{dunn, cerb, mds}

scummy scum:
{shadow, mariar, jester}

that leaves a whole six slots to find scum in, and only 4 of them are paired.
are you going to rethink your stance now that you have more detailed information, or do you think 2735 is still a valid post with valid points?

This list would be better if it was reversed lol

[Human Sequencer]

can't wait to read that mariar-Human interaction postgame

[MiniDeathStar]

if you think this makes {you, Jester} more unlikely than any other set of two scum reads then you have no idea of how probability works

I don't.

[Shadow_step]

alright let's stop the misrep and see where my reads actually are huh?

lock town:
{arthur, parama}

probably town:
{smith, pie, scout, kagami}

unsure:
{dunn, cerb, mds}

scummy scum:
{shadow, mariar, jester}

that leaves a whole six slots to find scum in, and only 4 of them are paired.
are you going to rethink your stance now that you have more detailed information, or do you think 2735 is still a valid post with valid points?

Have you taken issue with one of your lock town voting the other lock town?

[MiniDeathStar]

I DO NOT FIRMLY BELIEVE MARIAR AND SHADOW ARE SCUM TOGETHER
PLEASE READ

Jfc calm down. I commented on your reads list. Sorry I haven't kept track of every read that's been commented on.

[Human Sequencer]

No, parama has communicated her read on arthur with me in our PT favorably, and whilst I don't agree with it, I at least understand it. It's organically fluctuated over the course of the game and that one read is one of the stronger reasons I townread Parama so much, it's hard to fake that shit and it comes off 100% genuine to me (sorry for outing deets on your reads parma)

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.12

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [3] - pieguyn, Kagami, Nahdia
Human Sequencer - Parama [0] -
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [2] - MariaR, Parama
Cerberus v666 - Nahdia [0] -
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [2] - MiniDeathStar, Dunnstral
Dunnstral - Kagami [1] - Shadow_step
Shadow_step - MariaR [2] - Human Sequencer, Ser Arthur Dayne
No Lynch [2] - mhsmith0, inspectorscout

Not Voting [2]

- The_Jester, Cerberus v666

With 14 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch

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Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2016-12-15 17:00:00)