New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Nahdia]

huh?

VOTE: The_Jester & MiniDeathStar

p sure im still voting here.

[Human Sequencer]

With 14 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

Countdown to deadline: 5 days, 4 hours, 28 minutes

WHY IS SHADOW/MARIAR STILL ALIVE

nahdia, you're being lazyIC, please stop because you're (probably?) dying in 5 days

[inspectorscout]

WHY IS SHADOW/MARIAR STILL ALIVE

Because they're town

VOTE: mhsmith
Help here then.

[Human Sequencer]

I AM TOWNREADING BOTH YOU AND SMITH
PLEASE READ

[inspectorscout]

I AM TOWNREADING BOTH YOU AND SMITH
PLEASE READ

I'm not.

[Human Sequencer]

oh wait lol i got it in my head that mh/scout was a team for a second there

IT STILL APPLIES I AM TOWNREADING BOTH SMITH AND KAGAMI
PLEASE READ

if this pair gets lynched today and flips t/t i will be seriously sodium flavoured salty

[MiniDeathStar]

I can say the same about Shadow/Maria.

Although, like I said before I kind of want both my pair and Shadow/Maria gone before the LYLO. I'm really scared the scum would take advantage and use us as the final mislynch.

[Parama]

IT STILL APPLIES I AM TOWNREADING BOTH SMITH AND KAGAMI
PLEASE READ

too lazy to read atm but just chiming in to say this is still not the correct pairing

[Parama]

i'm really checked out of this game at the moment and also completely addicted to The Witness but I'll try to get some sort of existing post up tonight

[Human Sequencer]

I said kagami, but meant pie
It's been a rough weekend

[inspectorscout]

Remember when I said HS could be town?

Yeah uh no.

[inspectorscout]

HS - mhsmith - ???

[Human Sequencer]

ahhaahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
i am fuckin done
literally what the fuck
what makes me any more likely to do or say that as scum compared to town
literally what the fuck

[Dunnstral]

unsure:
{dunn,

Good chance of hs being scum

[Dunnstral]

@mhsmith and dunn

I'm being serious though. Half the town obviously has some level of scumread on us, and I don't think anybody *alive* is considering us town-town, but we aren't getting enough votes. The mafia are saving us for the final mislynch.

How to play to wincon in this setup, vs what people are actually likely to do, by smith

If you're a villager

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, you should still fight it and ensure that if you are lynched, maximal information is gained from the loss (and if it turns out your partner is a wolf, even better to actually have the process be an actual lynch)
Villagers will actually tend to give up because "I'm helping the town since I'm going down anyway" (even though they flagrantly aren't helping the town while doing this) or "screw you guys for suspecting me" (because it's easier than actually engaging meaningfully with the stated suspicions). This is because villagers tend to be lazy about considering what it means to be a villager, and/or tend to take self-destructive moves out of pique.

If you're a wolf

If/when you feel your lynch is inevitable, wolves should leave the dance to deprive town of useful voting information
Wolves will actually tend to fight their lynch though because they're survivalistic in nature, and/or underestimate the chance that they'll actually get lynched

This has been a PSA by smith. You're welcome.

this is like one of the best, most insightful and most pro-town posts in the game, and you can't say he just did it for town cred.
why not?
because it's not an effective way for smith to get towncred if people have spent half the game berating him for doing nothing but setup speculation.
i don't think anybody can argue what he's saying isn't true, and it's clear smith knows what he's saying because he's saying it (lol). bringing light to it does not make sense for a scummy scum. scumSmith has no motivation whatsoever to make that post, and it harms his win condition -greatly-

Also, I really don't like Human Sequencer dropping these random townreads. If smith's town, Kagami's town, Arthur's town, then who is left to be the scum? Shadow, Jester, and? Cerberus? You?

You don't *actually* think Maria or I are scum together with our partners, do you?

this post is so bad
remember the whole 'i'm partnering with jester regardless of alignment' thing? remember that whole saga? i do. the fact that you paired w/ jester is nai, it doesn't point against you both being scum because you were a lock pairing, in the same way that i was asking parma to dance at the start of this game.
i'm not trying to insinuate that you -are- both scum, i'm pointing out the fact that you have said something completely contradictory with something you've said earlier in a dismissive tone in a way that looks like an intentional discredit.

as for the first half of the post, here's another interpretation

I don't like Human reading town as town, solving the game and using PoE to find scum. I'm going to discredit the approach by making an absurd logical leap to make him look bad.

Spoiler: confirmation on pieguyn's alignment

should I stay, dear? or should I make both of us feel the sweet embrace of death together?~

here's a fun idea.

if mhsmith0 wants to live, he gets on his hands and knees and ~begs~ for it. that sounds fun, right?

I disagree that it's one of the best, most insightful, pro-town posts of the game. By a lot.l Looks like we're going to have a problem.

[inspectorscout]

ahhaahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
i am fuckin done
literally what the fuck
what makes me any more likely to do or say that as scum compared to town
literally what the fuck

Because your reads are bad in a way that youre probably trying to keep yourbuddies from being lynched

Shadow-maria is a cowbeaten to death already
And yes im aware that arthur does the same, and i disagree with it as much as with you
But otherwise hes okay and youre not

[mhsmith0]

Remember when I said HS could be town?

Yeah uh no.

HS - mhsmith - ???

ahhaahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
i am fuckin done
literally what the fuck
what makes me any more likely to do or say that as scum compared to town
literally what the fuck

Scout is pushing me, sees you defending me, and associates your defense with being my partner. It's a pretty natural read in the circumstance, and makes me a bit more comfortable with the idea that he simply is a townie who thinks I'm a wolf.

You also argued that my 2433 was a really good post. You made the point that it didn't make sense for me to do it as a wolf, but since you've seemingly been thinking about my motivations there, what do you think my motivation actually was? Not "well it doesn't make sense as wolf" but what the actual thought process was, and why I made that post in that situation at that time.

Ps I actually really want to see the HS answer here, would appreciate if no one else guesses.

[mhsmith0]

ahhaahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
i am fuckin done
literally what the fuck
what makes me any more likely to do or say that as scum compared to town
literally what the fuck

Because your reads are bad in a way that youre probably trying to keep yourbuddies from being lynched

Shadow-maria is a cowbeaten to death already
And yes im aware that arthur does the same, and i disagree with it as much as with you
But otherwise hes okay and youre not

Ps if HS is a wolf, I feel like the shadow-Maria pair is pretty likely spewed town.

[Dunnstral]

HS - mhsmith - ???

MDS or Kagami?

[Dunnstral]

Scout is pushing me, sees you defending me, and associates your defense with being my partner. It's a pretty natural read in the circumstance, and makes me a bit more comfortable with the idea that he simply is a townie who thinks I'm a wolf.

Coincidentally, I also think he is a townie (?) who thinks you are a wolf

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I think jester is likelier than mds. If it was HS/jester, then MAYBE its pie (which would explain why HS doesn't want me dead) but I'd guess someone pushing me (which would explain the defense as distancing from someone's push on me). Not sure if something like HS/jester/Dunn really works though *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

Scout is pushing me, sees you defending me, and associates your defense with being my partner. It's a pretty natural read in the circumstance, and makes me a bit more comfortable with the idea that he simply is a townie who thinks I'm a wolf.

Coincidentally, I also think he is a townie (?) who thinks you are a wolf

Dunn with the sheeping of his scum read

[Dunnstral]

Your pushing on pie looks fake

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

ahhaahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
i am fuckin done
literally what the fuck
what makes me any more likely to do or say that as scum compared to town
literally what the fuck

Because your reads are bad in a way that youre probably trying to keep yourbuddies from being lynched

Shadow-maria is a cowbeaten to death already
And yes im aware that arthur does the same, and i disagree with it as much as with you
But otherwise hes okay and youre not

Ps if HS is a wolf, I feel like the shadow-Maria pair is pretty likely spewed town.

I actually agree with this, I think if HS is scum shadow-maria is town.

However the HS shadow-pair push IS partly the reason I am strong townreading HS. It feels way too genuine. I don't feel like scum would stick with a wagon this long because then it can end up awk for them.

It was also largely the reason I was town-reading Parama but now think Shadow-Parama pair is likely. She looked like she was pushing him genuinely and naturally, but then (recently-ish) started doing the dipping in and out, where she looks like she's opportunistically looking for other wagons. I think it's super likely she went for early distancing for towncredit if shadow flips, but she also demonstrates the scum intuition of being survivalistic.

[Dunnstral]

Rather it IS fake because you just throw out vague things like that but then when I scumread your slot you turn on me pretty hard when you were ignoring me before