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LUV has claimed 2-shot followerIn post 1866, shannon wrote:In post 1826, TTTT wrote:So should we lynch outside of Titus/LUV and have them both report actions and results tomorrow?
Would that work?
What if we get them to both report on the same person?
Titus tells her neighbour the result.
Then LUV posts his result.
The neighbour can confirm its correctness/plausibility
Titus can tell us whether or not the neighbour lied
This fails if both Titus and LUV are scum, but if they are both town or one is town we should get something useful?
Titus has claimed JOAT with the JK and GS abilities left
So LUV should agree to follow Titus and report what action she took
Titus will do whatever she wants and report the action and target to her neighbor (Drone)
day3 they all report out in this order:
LUV
Titus
Drone
if there discrepancies we have scum among them
problems with the plan:
scum knows who among them are town and so could possibly benefit (for ex. knowing town!LUV is targeting Titus)
It's possible scum will NK Titus or LUV if either is town (but maybe not given suspicion on both slots?)
why it might work:
scum!LUV has a 50% chance of guessing Titus' action
town!titus' action and target gets relayed to us even if she is NKed (unless drone is scum)
not sure about this
help me think through it- TTTT
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This plan says trust my entire scumreads but for the scumread proposing it.In post 1866, shannon wrote:In post 1826, TTTT wrote:So should we lynch outside of Titus/LUV and have them both report actions and results tomorrow?
Would that work?
What if we get them to both report on the same person?
Titus tells her neighbour the result.
Then LUV posts his result.
The neighbour can confirm its correctness/plausibility
Titus can tell us whether or not the neighbour lied
This fails if both Titus and LUV are scum, but if they are both town or one is town we should get something useful?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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Yes, because of the threadwide refusal to talk about him.In post 1878, TTTT wrote:@Titus
you keep asking for someone to explain how drone is town
I'm not sold on town!drone, but others look worseShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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In post 1874, Drone wrote:
No. But you gave me ideas;In post 1868, shannon wrote:
Is that sarcasm? I'm assuming I've made some oversight hereIn post 1867, Drone wrote:That should do the trick.
A) You're setting up a WIFOM.
(if scum) you know both are actually town, nk one of them and blame the other.
It's beautiful, it's fresh, definitely something town might fall for.
Even includes bonus town points for you, for "scumhunting".
Special sale for the holidays; You get to ml someone else today.
B)
One of them is scum, you know it (if scum).
Pros:
Your "method" works, town satisfied with you.
Cons; You bus one of your allies.
C)
You're town and haven't thought of the option that both are town, and one of them can be nked, likely resulting in the other one being mled. Boo!
In response to:
A) Why bother suggesting a scheme when it's possible to just night kill someone anyway? Can you see that? If I were scum I'd be trying to lay low and then nix a PR tonight, not suggesting ways we can clear them.
B) Would town really be satisfied with me, though? If LUV was shown to be scum, do you really think I would be townread since he gave a 'no movement' on me N1? Titus is already scum reading me to some degree, so I'm sure if she was shown scum from this I would be accused of bussing.
Frankly if one of them is shown to be scum *and* I get lynched D3, that's fine - we've got 2/3 of the scum team and I'm sure the rest of you can figure out the last person. I think the sacrifice is totally worth it.
C) OK, that's the sort of flaw I was hoping someone would point out. Is the plan totally off-base, or can it be changed somehow to be more likely to give a result? Can we consider it a jumping off point or is there no way such a chain of checkers could work?
D) You've left out one other thing, which is that information about the Titus's neighbour's alignment might also be revealed...- shannon
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*sigh* mathematically we can't all be scum. I'm trying to figure a way to sort this out, usefully. By all means if you have a better idea of how to prove your claim, let's hear it.In post 1879, Titus wrote:
This plan says trust my entire scumreads but for the scumread proposing it.In post 1866, shannon wrote:In post 1826, TTTT wrote:So should we lynch outside of Titus/LUV and have them both report actions and results tomorrow?
Would that work?
What if we get them to both report on the same person?
Titus tells her neighbour the result.
Then LUV posts his result.
The neighbour can confirm its correctness/plausibility
Titus can tell us whether or not the neighbour lied
This fails if both Titus and LUV are scum, but if they are both town or one is town we should get something useful?- Titus
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@Shannon, You stop trying to control me as scum, lynch scum in my scumreads, and I finish the last one if you're town. That proves my ability.
Being a likely dead woman means I am not getting much use of my ability.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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OK, more questions about this role thing - -In post 1399, JaeReed wrote:During the night Transcend was killed.
He was…
Spoiler:
Day 2 begins now!
If another PR dies, does Titus get their powers?
Transcend's death and use of the Bulletproof (if Titus is telling the truth and he actually used it) suggests a strongman (or ninja?). What are the chances that this was one shot?
Is Titus effectively a PR, if there's an active strongman? Like if she jailkept someone, would it stick?
With the gunsmith thing, given that it returns both mafia and cops as having guns, should we expect that we have a town cop?- Raskolnikov
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Gonna cover every push by shannon so far (impoetic, transcend, titus, now gerry) and why the read progression doesn't make sense to me.
FirstImpoeticin 394Uhhh yeah this read to me like someone is making a town read based on scum knowledge, and then trying to cover their ass.This is a hop onto the impoetic wagon putting it l-2, the context being impoetic called someone a townie and explained it as everyone is statistically more likely town than not.
Shannon's vote here is not terrible for the situation (the impoetic slip does look awkward) but not a statement that necessarily required much time or thought; we see the judgment but shannon doesn't go into detail or show she's thinking critically about the game rather than taking an easy way on the wagon. So far this read isn't a problem but follow the progression through.
Note: in retrospect the slip by impoetic, her accidentally referring/assuming rb as a townie actually reads town given the flip, it seems unlikely mafia would accidentally refer to their partner that way
404 reads kind of bullshit as a response to impoetic's defending of herself. The issue shannon has that "Having scum reads on townies is sub-optimal for town." and of wifom doesn't seem like actually trying to understand impoetics point of view but moreso just make her look bad for defending herself on the grounds it's not "optimal play" which is eeh.
How you come away from votes is important too (the tail end of read progression) and a lot of people don't look at that part. It's the later unvote; fluffyrabbit unvoted impoetic for the tone of her defense and asked shannon to do so as well. 414 Shannon agrees and said she sort of buys it but doesn't feel comfortable going all the way, and the subsequent unvote next day is without comment and when she was the last one left on that wagon.
2 things here, first something I love to look at is what I call reads-momentum. The more self-conscious scum tend to have 'heavy' reads in terms of momentum because they don't feel right quickly turning and want to look consistent, whereas town is more variable i.e. 399 fluffly (who looks town) feels better from the defense right away. On top of appearance, making a fast retraction of a read puts you in a position where you have to have a new read or direction to go to, which for scum is more of a hassle given they like to be on one thing at any given time. This doesn't apply to every scenario and is pretty weak as a tell tbh but I could see that being the case here. Second is positioning; shannon came to put the wagon at l-2 but holds off on judgement or committing until everyone leaves it for the unvote. Because she doesn't really follow-up the read it's indistinguishable as to her genuinely changing her mind or if she was waiting to see which way the wind blew; that if people stayed on the wagon she would've as well, but the wagon's complete collapse didn't give a choice. Although this is more suggestive than anything hard-and-fast.
Follow this read through and she has impoetic as town until d2 where after kyoukyo's titus-impoetic theory she votes on 1557
A vote because impoetic isn't voting as she's lurking at the time. Again the concept of the vote isn't terrible, but when she had impoetic as lock for town d1 the worry on her specifically vs any other lurker (my slot for example) doesn't particularly follow. Finally impoetic doesn't show in her 1593 "want to lynch" pool and she then move votes again but I don't understand any of the progression regarding this. Impoetic doesn't post anything in between that vote and the pool and the next vote-change.I am also wondering why Impoetic has never been shown as voting, in any of the vote counts. Care to explain that one please? I can see a vote on RB on 156 (called a joke), and a skim reveals no other votes.
Overall given neither time she backed off she said anything substantive, and because her townread from the first time randomly disappeared I don't think it's a genuine read as opposed to voting for the sake of voting.
TranscendI'll go into later but I can summarize; she scumread transcend but didn't pressured him one bit until the end of the day or asked any questions. Transcend himself asked shannon why she didn't do anything about her only scumread or vote him (817) to get more information but she didn't on the experience and apparently role-crumb basis. Beyond "bad vibes" and a problem with transcend's style changing there's no critical thought until her vote post 911 which finally gives a theory.
Titusstarts in 1539. Based on kyoukyos theory in 1531 shannon votes titus for being obtuse and "for info". Nothing wrong with pressure though this still isn't scumhunting, but follow this read through:
she unvotes titus inexplicably to go back to impoetic (1557) and in 1593 commentsD7 is probably my strongest town read and he wants Titus. LUV has supposedly cleared me, and he wants Titus. SSBM made that interesting point yesterday about the Impoetic/Rabbit(Titus) interactions. I think that's where today has got to go.
Which is essentially saying titus is good because other people say so and sheeping.
Finally 1611 we have the revote to l-2.
Now you have to go back and look at this as a whole to see why this is a problem.In post 1611, shannon wrote:I'm going to go ahead and put Titus at L-2. I really want some proper responses from that slot and not just obtuse posts questioning minor points or pretending not to understand things.
VOTE: TitusL-2
Shannon originally wanted titus pushed for info but unvotes fast without asking anything. Then with the appeal that other people want titus so it's good she revotes because she wants proper responses from the slot.
Shannon herself never actually asked titus any questions. She didn't go into detail as to what info she wants; i.e. pressuring her. She votes her on the nebulous "more info" to sort of sheep, but doesn't have specifics she's interested in... what does shannon want here? Titus at this point has given reads, several directions where she wants to push and somewhat self-consistent VCA even if you hate it. What you do next if you're interested is pick it apart and go into why it's not good and your personal thinking as to why it's scummy. If shannon were interested I think she'd engage titus and ask about each of these but I don't think she genuinely was.
Titus then claims and shannon unvotes without much comment (1646), and asks for more info on the neighbour claims (1713) along with a brief summary as to why titus is being wagoned, though moreso facts than much of shannon's stance or opinion. Before in 1794 finally saying she should be lynched if she's still alive tomorrow...
I don't see critical analysis beyond setup stuff or actual scumhunting at any point here, since then just role and future speculation comments via titus/luv.
What I also don't get too is why shannon lost her townread on the slot here either. If you remember fluffyrabbit day 1 was actually shannon's strongest expressed townread in the game which shannon made a huge deal out of, and shannon made a post recognising that titus replaced her so there is no benefit of the doubt. Unless she is the type of player to completely throw out a read after replacement this townread backtrack looks just like the impoetic one.
Finally there's thegerryoatvote which is naked but shannon does talk about him earlier, as to why his wagon didn't go anywhere (1575). The thing is the gist of shannon's theory there isn't a case for gerryoat scum, it's an explanation as to why there was no strong counterwagon to rb, and the reasoning was because gerryoat was that counter, scum where already on him and that's why it didn't take off, i.e. gerryoat town. It's not a case for gerryoat scum. 1593 that becomes a bad thing though for gerry (???) and especially it's weird because shannon herself opposed the rb wagon but didn't go onto gerryoat, so I feel like she herself having a problem with that is odd given she even seems partially responsible.
Kyoukyo has his own case and theories regarding association shannon like-sort-of agrees with in 1793 but I highly doubt shannon has any of those same thought processes (uhhhhh) rather than just agreeing for the sake of voting. I might be missing something about this particular read given it's recency though.
Basically I don't see shannon think in-depth about the game for any read or show critical thinking, and when she does explain things I see inconsistencies and have a lot of trouble trying to understand her point of view. She appears to join wagons based on if they're already gaining traction (except for transcend, where people expliclty asked why she and non-voters in general weren't voting) rather than take any independent action, and doesn't put much effort questioning or engaging her scumreads (transcend, titus). Finally when a previous townread of her becomes a potential wagon that townread isn't mentioned again and seem to sort of disappear.- Drone
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I somewhat don't feel the urge to prove my innocence.In post 1881, shannon wrote:In post 1874, Drone wrote:
No. But you gave me ideas;In post 1868, shannon wrote:
Is that sarcasm? I'm assuming I've made some oversight hereIn post 1867, Drone wrote:That should do the trick.
A) You're setting up a WIFOM.
(if scum) you know both are actually town, nk one of them and blame the other.
It's beautiful, it's fresh, definitely something town might fall for.
Even includes bonus town points for you, for "scumhunting".
Special sale for the holidays; You get to ml someone else today.
B)
One of them is scum, you know it (if scum).
Pros:
Your "method" works, town satisfied with you.
Cons; You bus one of your allies.
C)
You're town and haven't thought of the option that both are town, and one of them can be nked, likely resulting in the other one being mled. Boo!
In response to:
A) Why bother suggesting a scheme when it's possible to just night kill someone anyway? Can you see that? If I were scum I'd be trying to lay low and then nix a PR tonight, not suggesting ways we can clear them.
B) Would town really be satisfied with me, though? If LUV was shown to be scum, do you really think I would be townread since he gave a 'no movement' on me N1? Titus is already scum reading me to some degree, so I'm sure if she was shown scum from this I would be accused of bussing.
Frankly if one of them is shown to be scum *and* I get lynched D3, that's fine - we've got 2/3 of the scum team and I'm sure the rest of you can figure out the last person. I think the sacrifice is totally worth it.
C) OK, that's the sort of flaw I was hoping someone would point out. Is the plan totally off-base, or can it be changed somehow to be more likely to give a result? Can we consider it a jumping off point or is there no way such a chain of checkers could work?
D) You've left out one other thing, which is that information about the Titus's neighbour's alignment might also be revealed...
Biting my tail now is only Titus.
Not something bothering me much.For science. For the mind!- Titus
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Yes, i inherited Transcend's unused powers. I already said that. I am not a superjoat, strongmen bypass.In post 1884, shannon wrote:
OK, more questions about this role thing - -In post 1399, JaeReed wrote:During the night Transcend was killed.
He was…
Spoiler:
Day 2 begins now!
If another PR dies, does Titus get their powers?
Transcend's death and use of the Bulletproof (if Titus is telling the truth and he actually used it) suggests a strongman (or ninja?). What are the chances that this was one shot?
Is Titus effectively a PR, if there's an active strongman? Like if she jailkept someone, would it stick?
With the gunsmith thing, given that it returns both mafia and cops as having guns, should we expect that we have a town cop?
The rest, ask tour buddies.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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Shannon, what information did you get from voting me other than my roleclaim?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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WRT titus/LUV I townread titus based on fluffrabbit's play though tbh you shouldn't even consider lynching someone who claims to have a a gunsmith/cop shot.
I'm not sure on LUV but I don't see the harm in giving both a night to potentially use actions given he claims to have 1 shot left anyways.
1-shot tracker didn't fit with universal backup and would imply a scum in the pair (probably lil), 2 shot follower could work. Although he could've changed it to match the UB 2-shot follower sounds specific and creative vs just claiming to have full shots, which suggests it's real whether town or scum.
@modwould follower would detect BP activation by JOAT?- Drone
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Why?In post 1885, Raskolnikov wrote:Gonna cover every push by shannon so far (impoetic, transcend, titus, now gerry) and why the read progression doesn't make sense to me.
FirstImpoeticin 394Uhhh yeah this read to me like someone is making a town read based on scum knowledge, and then trying to cover their ass.This is a hop onto the impoetic wagon putting it l-2, the context being impoetic called someone a townie and explained it as everyone is statistically more likely town than not.
Shannon's vote here is not terrible for the situation (the impoetic slip does look awkward) but not a statement that necessarily required much time or thought; we see the judgment but shannon doesn't go into detail or show she's thinking critically about the game rather than taking an easy way on the wagon. So far this read isn't a problem but follow the progression through.
Note: in retrospect the slip by impoetic, her accidentally referring/assuming rb as a townie actually reads town given the flip, it seems unlikely mafia would accidentally refer to their partner that way
404 reads kind of bullshit as a response to impoetic's defending of herself. The issue shannon has that "Having scum reads on townies is sub-optimal for town." and of wifom doesn't seem like actually trying to understand impoetics point of view but moreso just make her look bad for defending herself on the grounds it's not "optimal play" which is eeh.
How you come away from votes is important too (the tail end of read progression) and a lot of people don't look at that part. It's the later unvote; fluffyrabbit unvoted impoetic for the tone of her defense and asked shannon to do so as well. 414 Shannon agrees and said she sort of buys it but doesn't feel comfortable going all the way, and the subsequent unvote next day is without comment and when she was the last one left on that wagon.
2 things here, first something I love to look at is what I call reads-momentum. The more self-conscious scum tend to have 'heavy' reads in terms of momentum because they don't feel right quickly turning and want to look consistent, whereas town is more variable i.e. 399 fluffly (who looks town) feels better from the defense right away. On top of appearance, making a fast retraction of a read puts you in a position where you have to have a new read or direction to go to, which for scum is more of a hassle given they like to be on one thing at any given time. This doesn't apply to every scenario and is pretty weak as a tell tbh but I could see that being the case here. Second is positioning; shannon came to put the wagon at l-2 but holds off on judgement or committing until everyone leaves it for the unvote. Because she doesn't really follow-up the read it's indistinguishable as to her genuinely changing her mind or if she was waiting to see which way the wind blew; that if people stayed on the wagon she would've as well, but the wagon's complete collapse didn't give a choice. Although this is more suggestive than anything hard-and-fast.
Follow this read through and she has impoetic as town until d2 where after kyoukyo's titus-impoetic theory she votes on 1557
A vote because impoetic isn't voting as she's lurking at the time. Again the concept of the vote isn't terrible, but when she had impoetic as lock for town d1 the worry on her specifically vs any other lurker (my slot for example) doesn't particularly follow. Finally impoetic doesn't show in her 1593 "want to lynch" pool and she then move votes again but I don't understand any of the progression regarding this. Impoetic doesn't post anything in between that vote and the pool and the next vote-change.I am also wondering why Impoetic has never been shown as voting, in any of the vote counts. Care to explain that one please? I can see a vote on RB on 156 (called a joke), and a skim reveals no other votes.
Overall given neither time she backed off she said anything substantive, and because her townread from the first time randomly disappeared I don't think it's a genuine read as opposed to voting for the sake of voting.
TranscendI'll go into later but I can summarize; she scumread transcend but didn't pressured him one bit until the end of the day or asked any questions. Transcend himself asked shannon why she didn't do anything about her only scumread or vote him (817) to get more information but she didn't on the experience and apparently role-crumb basis. Beyond "bad vibes" and a problem with transcend's style changing there's no critical thought until her vote post 911 which finally gives a theory.
Titusstarts in 1539. Based on kyoukyos theory in 1531 shannon votes titus for being obtuse and "for info". Nothing wrong with pressure though this still isn't scumhunting, but follow this read through:
she unvotes titus inexplicably to go back to impoetic (1557) and in 1593 commentsD7 is probably my strongest town read and he wants Titus. LUV has supposedly cleared me, and he wants Titus. SSBM made that interesting point yesterday about the Impoetic/Rabbit(Titus) interactions. I think that's where today has got to go.
Which is essentially saying titus is good because other people say so and sheeping.
Finally 1611 we have the revote to l-2.
Now you have to go back and look at this as a whole to see why this is a problem.In post 1611, shannon wrote:I'm going to go ahead and put Titus at L-2. I really want some proper responses from that slot and not just obtuse posts questioning minor points or pretending not to understand things.
VOTE: TitusL-2
Shannon originally wanted titus pushed for info but unvotes fast without asking anything. Then with the appeal that other people want titus so it's good she revotes because she wants proper responses from the slot.
Shannon herself never actually asked titus any questions. She didn't go into detail as to what info she wants; i.e. pressuring her. She votes her on the nebulous "more info" to sort of sheep, but doesn't have specifics she's interested in... what does shannon want here? Titus at this point has given reads, several directions where she wants to push and somewhat self-consistent VCA even if you hate it. What you do next if you're interested is pick it apart and go into why it's not good and your personal thinking as to why it's scummy. If shannon were interested I think she'd engage titus and ask about each of these but I don't think she genuinely was.
Titus then claims and shannon unvotes without much comment (1646), and asks for more info on the neighbour claims (1713) along with a brief summary as to why titus is being wagoned, though moreso facts than much of shannon's stance or opinion. Before in 1794 finally saying she should be lynched if she's still alive tomorrow...
I don't see critical analysis beyond setup stuff or actual scumhunting at any point here, since then just role and future speculation comments via titus/luv.
What I also don't get too is why shannon lost her townread on the slot here either. If you remember fluffyrabbit day 1 was actually shannon's strongest expressed townread in the game which shannon made a huge deal out of, and shannon made a post recognising that titus replaced her so there is no benefit of the doubt. Unless she is the type of player to completely throw out a read after replacement this townread backtrack looks just like the impoetic one.
Finally there's thegerryoatvote which is naked but shannon does talk about him earlier, as to why his wagon didn't go anywhere (1575). The thing is the gist of shannon's theory there isn't a case for gerryoat scum, it's an explanation as to why there was no strong counterwagon to rb, and the reasoning was because gerryoat was that counter, scum where already on him and that's why it didn't take off, i.e. gerryoat town. It's not a case for gerryoat scum. 1593 that becomes a bad thing though for gerry (???) and especially it's weird because shannon herself opposed the rb wagon but didn't go onto gerryoat, so I feel like she herself having a problem with that is odd given she even seems partially responsible.
Kyoukyo has his own case and theories regarding association shannon like-sort-of agrees with in 1793 but I highly doubt shannon has any of those same thought processes (uhhhhh) rather than just agreeing for the sake of voting. I might be missing something about this particular read given it's recency though.
Basically I don't see shannon think in-depth about the game for any read or show critical thinking, and when she does explain things I see inconsistencies and have a lot of trouble trying to understand her point of view. She appears to join wagons based on if they're already gaining traction (except for transcend, where people expliclty asked why she and non-voters in general weren't voting) rather than take any independent action, and doesn't put much effort questioning or engaging her scumreads (transcend, titus). Finally when a previous townread of her becomes a potential wagon that townread isn't mentioned again and seem to sort of disappear.
Because Raskolnikov.For science. For the mind!- Raskolnikov
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so no responses means we are doing this, right?
and lynching outside Titus/LUV/Drone means we all agree to kill shannon.
In post 1877, TTTT wrote:LUV has claimed 2-shot follower
Titus has claimed JOAT with the JK and GS abilities left
So LUV should agree to follow Titus and report what action she took
Titus will do whatever she wants and report the action and target to her neighbor (Drone)
day3 they all report out in this order:
LUV
Titus
Drone
if there discrepancies we have scum among them
problems with the plan:
scum knows who among them are town and so could possibly benefit (for ex. knowing town!LUV is targeting Titus)
It's possible scum will NK Titus or LUV if either is town (but maybe not given suspicion on both slots?)
why it might work:
scum!LUV has a 50% chance of guessing Titus' action
town!titus' action and target gets relayed to us even if she is NKed (unless drone is scum)
not sure about this
help me think through it- TTTT
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^thisIn post 1892, Raskolnikov wrote:Shannon what are your actual reads?
No setup speculation. No theories, no "if X happens Y should happen", none of that. Scumreads, stances, opinions.- Raskolnikov
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