Mini 1857 Mafia Thread

[Raskolnikov]

Titus - PR

TTTT - somewhat townread, reads very on point
D7 - heavily townread but not very useful to town

ssbm_Kyouko - somewhat townread, but naive
impoetic - somewhat townread, pure lurker

gerryoat - contested read of the town, lurkish
Shannon - somewhat scumread, confirmed VT (didn't visit anywhere), my push target
Drone - the most scumread person in the game.

[Raskolnikov]

Raskolnikov roleblocks Titus, Kills TTTT

Placeholder actions unless or until we decide on something better

[Raskolnikov]

1 mislynch down, 2 to go to get to lylo

Tomorrow is doable with drone, shannon, gerryoat as potential mislynches

The day after that impoetic and maybe kyouko could enter the town lynchpool as well

[Raskolnikov]

Killing titus or drealmerz is also an option, those are the 3 real candidates.

[Raskolnikov]

The only problem is we need you not to get lynched, at least not tomorrow. That would be catastrophic, because it would almost "clear" both drone and sesq for scumreading you, bringing them from scummy to towny and making the game nearly unwinnable.

You're going to get some heat from drone and maybe shannon minimum, if not some others, that's a fact. But it can be overcome and people could even walk away with a townread at the end, it's just how it's handled.

I wish our communication was a little better because as a newer player you have the most opportunity to fool people. Nobody is expecting you to play a great scumgame if new so if you towntell people will just buy it, whereas if I or most other players do the same things people will still be paranoid. Daytalk is something usually feared and powerful because people can utilize it to fake the most convincing partner-partner interactions, and also to help get any player out of a hole if they get into one. But we're pretty much playing how people do with night-only talk.

[Sesq]

As a rule, framing rarely does anything unless the person is already heavily scumread. If there are several highly scumread people, and the nightkill draws attention to one of them in particular, it usually would get them lynched over the others, but framing alone doesn't generally get someone scumread if they are townread.

My intent was doing this to someone who was already heavily scumread.

[Raskolnikov]

I mean, if they scumread someone heavily scumread wouldn't leaving them alive to help mislynch that person be more useful?

[Sesq]

Y E S

[Raskolnikov]

The issue here is a lot of people scumread LUV and didn't feel that strongly about the others, so their death wouldn't frame much. Titus felt really strongly about some people, but killing her wouldn't frame because people assume PRs are killed for being PRs and not for reads. A lot of the more townread people were also lurkish with almost no strong reads like drealmerz7, impoetic, and we don't want to kill someone already heavily scumread for obvious reasons.

[Raskolnikov]

If there was someone being like OMG LYNCH DRONE OMG LYNCH SHANNON OMG LYNCH GERRYOAT there would be the chance to kill them to frame, it would leave a very strong impression at least. But there's doesn't look like a good opportunity to do that here, plus out of my past games usually framing doesn't do much because people soon forget about it.

[Raskolnikov]

In fact, framing is often so ineffective that mafia usually straight up kill people who scumread them and get away with it. Especially if they're people already townread or considered "strong" players because that's other justification.

[Raskolnikov]

Unfortunately people keep bringing up what ironstove did d1 against me which is annoying. I don't really have a defense for that, it would suck if that's what got me roped eventually.

[Sesq]

it's obvious you're more intelligent with this than I am

I had wanted titus to be roleblocked, it might be interesting if she isn't trusted and if she is itll be an obvscum move and not a obv sesq/rask move, or maybe theyll think theres a town rb, prob not

as for tttt kill... maybe? what do you think about others

[Raskolnikov]

Nah just a bit experienced, but I don't know entirely what I'm doing either

I think most scumteams would just kill titus here, so I'm not that sure this choice is the right one. I'm just worried there's a protective or something, or that killing titus would put people on the right track faster. As long as titus scumreads drone and shannon she could help us out, and as long as she's alive people are distracted by some paranoia there.

[Raskolnikov]

I want to go for the safest thing which is a 5p lylo win. The biggest threat I see is someone "figuring it out", looking past all the BS and confusion to what actually is the truth.

If someone scumreads only one of us it's not that bad, which is the case for most people. If someone scumreads BOTH of us they could put 2 and 2 together and figure us out as the scumteam.

TTTT right now looks like the closest person to doing that, he doesn't townread either of us and thinks scum is in {drone, sesq, raskolnikov, impoetic}. Impoetic isn't getting lynched because she's townread a lot. Drone's going to want a wagon onto you based on everything he said so far... and TTTT probably joins it instead of lynching drone himself. Then shannon likely hops on and that's pretty much it.

[Raskolnikov]

Also there's me... some people think I shouldn't be alive lategame, that it's suspicious. If I kill titus now for being PR, and THEN someone else next night like TTTT, that's WEIRD. Especially if TTTT by then is pointing the finger directly at us, I want him out of the way before then.

If I kill TTTT now and THEN Titus for being a PR, this doesn't really happen, people d3 will be more concerned about titus anyways than looking at me, and d4 it'll be an obvious kill-because-pr and they should've already forgotten about the TTTT kill by then.

[Raskolnikov]

The thing is, usually mafia don't get to choose kills. You're forced to kill certain people.
This is like the only opportunity to remove someone I want least to be in 5p LYLO, and there might not be another chance. From then on, kills will be more or less forced, titus and then if another PR claims they have to go next.

I want lurkish or heavily misunderstood people to populate the lategame, like drealmerz7 (although he's too townread), impoetic, gerryoat.

SSBM_Kyouko is a decent reader of the game so far and townread too so he's tempting like TTTT, but he's still somewhat new and a bit naive, and spends or wastes a lot of time going down weird theories like the vigilante speculation.

Shannon actually has good reads and I don't really want her in lylo either but killing her would look bad for me, and drone is way too heavily scumread to even consider as a kill plus it would look bad on you.

[Sesq]

thats some good shit

[Raskolnikov]

well, watch everything happen the complete opposite way and completely fall to shambles instead

I think in a bad situation where you lose someone d1 like this you have to take some risks though im not sure what exactly the right ones are. I would just kill titus if we had all 3 people but the distraction seems necessary and it pays off if a good chunk of the day is people talking about titus and being all worried and paranoid instead of looking at us. If titus and luv are both gone that whole "group of 3" and all that people were talking about is just proven wrong and people would move on entirely from almost everything that happened in d2

[Raskolnikov]

Now there's one thing worth talking about, associations.

By default anyone is considered a potential partner of anyone. There's 3 situations that make people think a pair of people can't be partners.

First is like, super hard early bussing, especially d1. Drealmerz probably never gets lynched this game because he was the second person on the rb wagon and pushed it super hard. D1 gives you way more credit than doing it latergame though. With this I mean actually lynching the person too, not just pushing them. I don't think we should do this now? In any case you'd probably have better results "bussing" me than if I did it to you, because people almost expect a player with experience to bus, so basically I wouldn't get much credit out of it and people would still suspect me later, so it wouldn't be worth it at all.

Second is certain interactions; not so much votes but if people have a big fight or argument or something and it looks real. You-rb is pretty decent especially because you're new so the expectation is it's not very likely it's faked. Though even if people think an interaction is bad, if they individually scumread you enough they won't care. This would also be more suspect later-game, and because it's public knowledge daychat is enabled, and also because people might think I planned it too. It probably would never clear us as a team but it might help. It definitely backfires if you screw up and it looks fake though.

Third is going full buddy-buddy and would be if I like just said I hard-townread you and would never want you lynched. People may think it's so bold it would be strange as an association. This works better between 2 people who are like veteran players because they're almost expected to "distance" themselves and not make a mistake, but if a newer player does this people would just assume they're obvious scum who made a mistake. This needs the person to look at least a bit towny too, because if they're just scummy then a hard townread doesn't make sense and looks a lot worse.

[Raskolnikov]

From what I've seen the key to winning as scum is essentially getting cleared or near-cleared for things you shouldn't be. For example is having a really convincing fakeclaim, getting lucky no one counterclaims it and it fits the setup and it doesn't look like there's too many PRs, and having a reasonable explanation as to why you dont die next night if there still is one. But that's inherently risky.

Getting "cleared" from interactions is also a way I've seen people do it. In one game people knew each other going into the game and rolled scum together with daychat. What they did, was "let's meet each other in-thread and say hellos there instead of in this scum topic", and they acted all surprised and faked a very convincing conversation which everyone assumed they would've had in the scum PT instead of in-thread, so it looked like they were super super unlikely to be scum together, and when one of them flipped scum the other won the game partially because of this.

[Raskolnikov]

In our case, what I'd have liked to do was basically this.

You push me and try to lynch me,

I react not by trying to lynch you back, but treating you like "this push is dumb and this person's delusional pushing on me"
Then as that continues, I'll basically mock you for it, call you names or something and make you look like wrong/bad town (it's useful to spread that reputation around, too, way better than being scumread), and/or even look like I'm trying to "appease" you or change your mind. If it's done well that would work, I'm just not sure we could pull it off convincingly.

Standard or "usual" distancing is when people fight each other and both act upset, but you pushing me like you think I'm scum (without acting unusual) and me thinking you're wrong town and complaining about it and is a more advanced, complicated interaction. I could even give you what could be ok-looking points to use against me so people will think you're scumhunting, though not good enough that others would hop on. Although even if they do I could probably handle a wagon defense okay and the people will end up wagoning someone else instead.

The problem is even when you have the theory of something that sounds very promising like this, it's a lot of work/effort and rather difficult to make it reality. The coordination is a lot easier with people who've played together before for example. In this case it would be high-risk / high-reward, though in a bad situation where if you don't do anything you probably lose anyways I'd generally take risks that could pay off.

ACTUALLY it might not be worth it because people could skip what we do now and judge solely on d1/2

[Raskolnikov]

Also, while this is your only game on-site I'd probably go to profile->board preferences->hide my online status->yes
or people like shannon will use it against you if you're online and don't post like she did before... which is annoying. some people just deal with it but I really cant be bothered, ESPECIALLY when it's NOT TRUE and you just innocently didn't have the time or didn't feel like saying anything

also, it's being optimistic to mention it this early but that helps a lot in LYLO... (even people without that option as default will often tick it when they login/temporarily for LYLO with daytalk as scum) where the game is in sudden death and everyones extremely paranoid. For example if I was in a LYLO, and I saw someone online but they didn't post anything (town almost always prioritise an intense situation like lylo) I would probably think about it, and even if I thought it was dumb I might bring it up anyways just to help get them lynched

[JaeReed]

Raskolnikov roleblocks Titus, Kills TTTT

Placeholder actions unless or until we decide on something better

This is both a "received" and a "reminder that these are the current actions, you have up until deadline to change them if you wish".

[Raskolnikov]

hmmmmmm

maybe d7 or kyouko would be better after all