New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Kagami]

Actually, this is probably a good time to hear out where kagami scumreads are actually coming from.

[pieguyn]

I still find it pretty incredibly that a town-player whose only strong position has been "Shadow-Maria is town" produces 3706 and 3719. On the other hand, it's not really any less crazy that scum-jester produces them.

at this point, I don't feel safe making the assumption that Jester is a player who you can even attempt to apply the laws of internal consistency to.

I really wish I had lynched him D1.

[Kagami]

The scum explanation is that he expected to get lynched soon and just wanted to make sure a non-him lynch happened first.

That doesn't explain MDS's behavior, though.

[Kagami]

Who do you think would be most likely scum with jester?

[pieguyn]

Who do you think would be most likely scum with jester?

if Jester is scum, I think it's Jester, Parama, +1.

[Kagami]

Good, we agree at least on that.

[Kagami]

Well, we've agreed pretty well so far, but I'm happy you came to the same conclusion re:parama.

[pieguyn]

I literally don't know how this game works at all if I'm wrong on it being those two, unless it's just that MDS is the scum in the Jester pair (in which case I'm not yet sure how I'd reevaluate).

what do you think is going on here if the Jester pair *is* town/town?

[Kagami]

Crossbus or scum-scum pair.

[Kagami]

You didn't find it strange how today opened?

[pieguyn]

You didn't find it strange how today opened?

I definitely found Parama's end of it strange. SAD's end seemed normal for him, but I was looking through his ISO earlier and I actually really wasn't satisfied with it, so I no longer feel anywhere near comfortable with a town read on him like I did before.

I think we probably disagree on our strong town reads. mine are scout and HS, which means if it became apparent there was a scum/scum pair in the setup I'd look at your pair. -.-

what do you think scum-Parama's motivation for posting 4095 and related posts is if Jester-pair is town/town? at first I figured that they probably thought that either 1. the lynch would hit Jester and it would solidify their position, at which point they would either try to pivot onto the other town-town pair or try to eke them out in 4p, or 2. it would hit them and generate a bunch of WIFOM regarding their reads (and hopefully town would chain it into a Jester lynch anyway).

HS seems to be in pretty strong disagreement, though, so I'm not sure what to think.

[Kagami]

4095 has nice explanations for scum-parama, but is awkward for town-parama, as it assumes I'm not simply bussing them, which is also the superficial explanation for 4071.

And yes, disagree re:HS. I think you're overvalue-ing "self-voting" as a town-indicator, especially just after a timeout.

[Kagami]

4081

[Kagami]

What's the issue with SAD? I was liking him on review.

[pieguyn]

What's the issue with SAD? I was liking him on review.

he's said a lot, but when I actually look at it from the top I'm a bit concerned about the way he focused almost entirely on MDS and S_S' pair to the near exclusion of any other push and I'm a bit concerned that I could be biasing towards him because he posts in a very logical style that resonates with me a lot.

I would consider a Parama-him crossbus *if* it became apparent Jester-pair was both town, but apart from that I don't know how hard I'd think about him.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Arthur/scout
I'm confident in Jester/MDS T/T now, and although Parama has acted quite scummy, he's had a few posts that do not logically come from scumParama (Thank you to Pieguyn for pointing out 4095 and wriggling some analysis out of me)

Scout has been badposting a lot, and I still definitely believe there's at least one scum in {parama, arthur} for the shadow push. Although parama looks far worse on the shadow wagon and post shadow flip, again, parama has said some things that just don't make sense coming from scum, and was townread by far more dead townies than Arthur.

The one and only thing that gives me pause is Nahdia scumreading Jester/MDS.

There it is guys. After all that posturing HS finally votes for Arthur, ignoring my arguments for why they're the best lynch and doing what I predicted they'd be doing as scum.

HS knows arthur-scout isn't going to get lynched here, as well.

[Dunnstral]

Let's pressure HS

ask me anything you want and if i don't acknowledge you just ask me again

Who do you think is more likely scum between Parama and Arthur?

i'm not sure
my gut and reads tell me parama, more objective analysis (competent conftownie reads) tells me sad

At that, why are you creating a false dichotomy?

because it almost certainly isn't false, no way was there 0 scum pushing shadow, and i'm town. beyond that, they're both pushing each other pretty hard.

Why are you so predictable, if you are indeed town?

[Dunnstral]

To start with, I began by asking you a question about the people on your wagon. You overreacted and acted like I was throwing shade/pushing on you and refused to answer me and then scumread me.

By the way, that's still valid to look at if you're town.

are you seriously going to deny that you're pushing me? you continue to state, in no uncertain terms, "mhsmith/pie isn't town/town", you continue to inject yourself into interactions with people who claim that my pair is town/town, you outright said in 3905 before I even started to interact with you that you didn't like my entrance...

and I didn't answer your question at first because it was a stupid question, but even so, I did eventually answer it after you kept requesting me to answer it, so... what is your point here?

My thoughts don't all coexist together. If you're scum it's possible it's with kagami and 1 other and so your "made up" read is most likely the one you're pushing; jester

you are dodging the question. you claim it looks like I'm making up reads - what about my read on Jester looks made up to you?

you are basically saying I'm making up reads because I could be scum with Kagami. I hope I don't need to explain why this is a circular argument and I don't think you would be that obtuse to where you'd think this is actually a good line of reasoning. you can't just say "your reads look made up" and call it a day - if you want to say that my reads look made up, that is that I wouldn't have the reads that I have as town, you need to have an explanation for *why* I wouldn't have those reads as town or you have no ground to stand on.

Didn't you "give him room" overnight? I asked.
Not sure where you're going with this - are you saying you needed time to cool off? Okay I guess.

I'm saying that I think the way mhsmith interacted with me end of D1 is a town tell. with that in mind, why is it so surprising that at the current point in the game I'd prefer to leave him for later and lynch elsewhere (people I think are likely to actually flip scum)?

Never denied that I'm pushing you - I'm just not voting you atm

I think your read on Jester is fake because I think you're scum trying to lynch a pair that isn't you.

It's not surprising that you don't want to lynch mhsmith. It's to be expected, in fact.

[Dunnstral]

I want to catch up to more recent kagami-pie posting

[Kagami]

Meh, I wasn't really paying too much attention to SADscout or HS-Parama D1 either, so a lack of breadth doesn't bother me too much.

There could be something more sophisticated things going on. I feel like if I were scum, I'd be doing things like pushing the partners of scumbuddies in the hopes they town it up and I can justify voting elsewhere while using the push to clear them or myself when one flips.

[Kagami]

re: pie's last post.

[Kagami]

So which do you think is the best lynch from a greedy standpoint, pie?

[Dunnstral]

because dunn 110% wants me dead which also kills parama, and parama had some realistic reads on dunn throughout the game. that latter one only holds up if parama is town, i understand that.
i doubt dunn has been pushing me for bus credit because he was doing it yesterday, and his reaction to me scumreading parama makes no sense for a scumDunn that is trying to bus parama.

i read most of his pushes as legitimate but misguided.

Sure. Except I'm not misguided, and you were doing a stunt early in the day where you scumread parama but that doesn't add up here anymore

By the way, It is my belief that whether it's you or parama, there's 1 scum in your group. I've said that

who

the scum is would have a big effect on my reads

[pieguyn]

HS read isn't due to her self voting, ftr, it's because literally nothing she's said or done over the course of pretty much the entire game has looked like scum to me at all. to take the most recent example, her/my interaction earlier today: I don't look at it and see anything incongruous or her trying to push any sort of agenda, I look at it and see her being right there with me not having the slightest clue what the hell is going on in this game, thinking she's made advancements in her reads only to second guess it later and displaying a noticeable mindset that me talking with her helped her to evolve her reads. I can probably go through more of her posts that I liked if you want, but don't know if we'll agree here.

I'm not quite sure what your point is re: 4071.

p-edit: if I'm going purely based on odds, Parama. if I'm going based on the gamestate, then it occurred to me earlier that if I'm correct on both of my town reads, it's very, very unlikely that Jester's pair and your pair are both town-town pairs.

[Dunnstral]

thing is if we go through with the Jester lynch and it's town, then we probably just lose.

That's what I've been saying.

So why are you voting Jester, instead of Parama group?