New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

If I recall it was just speculation on a possible pairing, but it seems like you're considering voting with me

[Dunnstral]

(Which I'd appreciate)

[Kagami]

Insufficiently compelling.

[Kagami]

Who me? I'd never vote you.

[Dunnstral]

Voting with me

So Parama pair

[Kagami]

O with you, yes. I am considering that.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Well, I'm going to re-evaluate after each successful scumlynch, but I'm open to leaving as soon as we can agree to a high confidence T-T pair.

Well yes, the problem is we ~need~ a scumlynch today. I am really not in the mood to enter lylo with no scumlynch. People need to stop trying to pair up buddies via relationship and association, and need to scumhunt specific people.

[Kagami]

We are, we're trying to figure out the optimal lynch on the basis of likely configurations, which are relatively few.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

We are, we're trying to figure out the optimal lynch on the basis of likely configurations, which are relatively few.

Well too many people are wanting a Jester lynch, or are in favor of it, and there seems to be little evidence indicating he is scum or town. He's just... there. So even IF he is scum, he is not the optimal lynch today. Because his lynch is a coin flip. There is 2 other scum out there. It's basically something Pie said earlier of "Parama and Jester could be scum together". Yes, but one of them is actively being scummy, the other is just null. We can't go for the null hoping that he flips scum so then we can lynch Parama based on association. It's something I learned when I was first learning chess, it's to not play "hope chess". Making a move that you know is bad or that can backfire hoping that the opponent won't see it or that it ends up correctly. Same thing with mafia, we can't play "hope mafia", hoping that just because Jester hasn't been here he's scum (and I have seen no compelling argument for why he is actually scum). First we need to catch scum, THEN we need to scum-hunt based on the flip. But catching scummy people should be number 1 priority.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Like trust me I'm all for an MDS lynch (okay obv not as much as Parama but I'm still in favor of the pair lynch) but if the reason people are in favor of it is because they're hoping Jester flips scum because he's been null all game then that is just bad play.

[Kagami]

We're probably not lynching jester

[Kagami]

His lynch is not a coin flip by any means, though

[Kagami]

VOTE: parama

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.4

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [1] - MiniDeathStar
Human Sequencer - Parama [3] - Dunnstral, Ser Arthur Dayne, Kagami
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [2] - Parama, Human Sequencer
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [1] - inspectorscout
Dunnstral - Kagami [0] -

Not Voting [3]

- The_Jester, pieguyn, mhsmith0

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2016-12-25 17:00:00)

[mhsmith0]

I'm starting to do some work w VCA and a re-skim of the game thread, probably won't have a lot done until sometime tomorrow but we'll see how much energy I have tonight.

[mhsmith0]

First point:

That's not a slip btw

Bad time to start pushing this wagon, bad reason too

^this was dunn to scout when the wagons were 5/4/4 (shadow-maria at 5), and there was momentum gathering in the Jester-MDS direction (three of the previous four votes had been on jester-mds, the Gamma-Vedith wagon hadn't added votes for quite some time, and shadow-maria wasn't really moving quickly)

then followed by

UNVOTE:

relatively bad look if Jester-MDS has a wolf in it. I probably need to look at Dunn's overall shift there more carefully, but that could relatively easily have been a distancing vote (he was first on jester-mds) that he then bailed on once it got a bit dangerous

[mhsmith0]

also really like 1038 solely for putting Jester right in the null pile. that makes me feel better about MDS in general. she could easily find some excuse to townlean him if she wanted.

So this also came at a point where MDS-Jester was at least a consideration (though after Dunn bailed and SAD voted shadow it was much lower moentum-wise).

Why did you think that dumping Jester in the null pile was meaningfully town-indicative? If the Jester-MDS pair was under public suspicion (and it was), then just openly town-reading him without substance would look suspicious in its own right from MDS (and presumably if she was scum at least one partner would be likely to have pointed it out). Am I missing something? Or was this actually just a null moment from her?

[Dunnstral]

A simple fact check shows that mhsmith is making things up. First of all, I wasn't even talking to scout in 1343. This is what I was responding to:

I'm supposed to have controversial reads to be town? Wow, thanks,

I'll write this down for next time I'm scum.

Awk.

I'm supposed to have controversial reads to be town? Wow, thanks, I'll write this down for next time I'm scum.

RIP

And it's not a slip. Mhsmith is trying to paint this as me defending jester-MDS when I wasn't.

I unvoted MDS because as she talked to me about Kagami I felt a lot better about her.

[mhsmith0]

1) You were talking to HS, not scout, I'd typod.

2) You don't think jester-MDS is a pair with a wolf in it, right? So why do you care about the scenario where a red flip in there might make you look bad?

[Dunnstral]

2) You don't think jester-MDS is a pair with a wolf in it, right?

I never said that.

[Dunnstral]

I think if that pair is both town, lynching them will cost town the game.

[Dunnstral]

And I gave reasons for my HS-Parama vote.

[Dunnstral]

So why do you care about the scenario where a red flip in there might make you look bad?

Also, what are you talking about? You brought it up and I pointed out how what you said was wrong.

[mhsmith0]

Sure, you've given reasons for HS-Parama, but your push against a jester-mds lynch suggests that you have at least something of a town read there, even if it's indirect via game state read, who's pushing them etc. Like, if you thought there was very likely scum in there, then you wouldn't be pushing agianst it with much energy and would consider it a pretty reasonable alternative.

So essentially, you're communicating that you think that, at the very least, there is a pretty meaningful chance that they're town-town. And yet you are (it seems) accusing me of trying to shovel dirt on you, when that commentary would only even apply in the event that their pair has at least one wolf in it. So I guess the question is, since you think there's a pretty solid chance they're town/town, why are you even bothered by a potential association there?

[mhsmith0]

That's not a slip btw

Bad time to start pushing this wagon, bad reason too

^ at a relatively important point, you commented not just that the "slip" argument was a bad reason to hop on the wagon (which is a fair point), but that it was a "bad time to start pushing this wagon", which is in fact a pretty meaningful commentary at a fairly important point (another vote or two on jester-mds would have made it a very difficult wagon to derail). So you doubtcast the wagon and hopped off at a high leverage situation, and you take issue with my pointing out the connection due to

1) my (utterly meaningless) mistake in saying it was scout instead of HS you were responding to
2) you saying that you weren't defending them when "bad time to start pushing this wagon" is very clearly defending them, and not just for the "slip" bit

This... does not make me less suspicious of you in the case that there's a red flip in jester-mds.

PS Since you cite MDS's kagami discussion, what post or posts in particular made you feel a lot better about her? Was it just that she'd expressed some suspicion? These two posts? Something else?

Why do you think Kagami is scum?

Cloning your reads. Copying the case Shadow without much original input from herself. Staying under the radar.

If Shadow's scum she could be town though.

Why do you think she's town if shadow is scum? (and if shadow is town, why is kagami scum)

I saw the shadow read as more opportunism rather than bussing. Plus I don't think she'd gain much from bussing this early.