New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[mhsmith0]

@Parama: Sorry about being stupid earlier. I wasn't going to let Jester get away with it for long, I just really really wanted to play with him for a while. I actually think he's town now though. He made some really good posts in our PT and supported my decision to quit the dance if I thought it was the right thing to do.

Also, this would be MDS "finding some excuse to townread jester", right? Given that you said this would potentially be a point of suspicion on her, why didn't you follow up? Was it just because you were away from thread for a while? Or did something else ping you sufficiently town about her that you didn't think it was a worthwhile issue to bring up?

[MiniDeathStar]

Morning (again). I'm catching up from page 164 now, will post as soon as I'm done. Thanks for your patience!

[Dunnstral]

Sure, you've given reasons for HS-Parama, but your push against a jester-mds lynch suggests that you have at least something of a town read there, even if it's indirect via game state read, who's pushing them etc. Like, if you thought there was very likely scum in there, then you wouldn't be pushing agianst it with much energy and would consider it a pretty reasonable alternative.

So essentially, you're communicating that you think that, at the very least, there is a pretty meaningful chance that they're town-town. And yet you are (it seems) accusing me of trying to shovel dirt on you, when that commentary would only even apply in the event that their pair has at least one wolf in it. So I guess the question is, since you think there's a pretty solid chance they're town/town, why are you even bothered by a potential association there?

No. I'm entertaining multiple possibilities and voting the overlap. Also the best lynch for me to figure the rest out

Doesn't matter if it's my 3rd scumread pair or my 2nd, if it's not my 1st I'm going to fight against it.

[Dunnstral]

That's not a slip btw

Bad time to start pushing this wagon, bad reason too

^ at a relatively important point, you commented not just that the "slip" argument was a bad reason to hop on the wagon (which is a fair point), but that it was a "bad time to start pushing this wagon", which is in fact a pretty meaningful commentary at a fairly important point (another vote or two on jester-mds would have made it a very difficult wagon to derail). So you doubtcast the wagon and hopped off at a high leverage situation, and you take issue with my pointing out the connection due to

1) my (utterly meaningless) mistake in saying it was scout instead of HS you were responding to
2) you saying that you weren't defending them when "bad time to start pushing this wagon" is very clearly defending them, and not just for the "slip" bit

This... does not make me less suspicious of you in the case that there's a red flip in jester-mds.

PS Since you cite MDS's kagami discussion, what post or posts in particular made you feel a lot better about her? Was it just that she'd expressed some suspicion? These two posts? Something else?

Why do you think Kagami is scum?

Cloning your reads. Copying the case Shadow without much original input from herself. Staying under the radar.

If Shadow's scum she could be town though.

Why do you think she's town if shadow is scum? (and if shadow is town, why is kagami scum)

I saw the shadow read as more opportunism rather than bussing. Plus I don't think she'd gain much from bussing this early.

Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Gamma

This flip provides most info right now.

Townslip

People have linked Mini to scum!Gamma based on their interactions, Vedith just warned her of becoming the next target if Gamma flips scum. There's no interest for her to do what she did, assuming she's Gamma's partner. And since Mini's been scumread based mostly on that pre-flip association, she's clean.

I used such an absolute term on purpose to see her reaction in our pt and her being complitely oblivious to the fact of being widely linked to Gamma makes feel good about her.

She questioned me about my assesment and stated she thought only Vedith saw her as Gamma's partner.

I'd actually forgotten about this segment, and that was a relatively good look. Does anyone here know jester particularly well? Does scum!jester ever try that sort of stunt?

[Dunnstral]

@Parama: Sorry about being stupid earlier. I wasn't going to let Jester get away with it for long, I just really really wanted to play with him for a while. I actually think he's town now though. He made some really good posts in our PT and supported my decision to quit the dance if I thought it was the right thing to do.

Also, this would be MDS "finding some excuse to townread jester", right? Given that you said this would potentially be a point of suspicion on her, why didn't you follow up? Was it just because you were away from thread for a while? Or did something else ping you sufficiently town about her that you didn't think it was a worthwhile issue to bring up?

I responded to what was directed at me, and not to what was clearly meant for someone else to answer.

[mhsmith0]

@Parama: Sorry about being stupid earlier. I wasn't going to let Jester get away with it for long, I just really really wanted to play with him for a while. I actually think he's town now though. He made some really good posts in our PT and supported my decision to quit the dance if I thought it was the right thing to do.

Also, this would be MDS "finding some excuse to townread jester", right? Given that you said this would potentially be a point of suspicion on her, why didn't you follow up? Was it just because you were away from thread for a while? Or did something else ping you sufficiently town about her that you didn't think it was a worthwhile issue to bring up?

I responded to what was directed at me, and not to what was clearly meant for someone else to answer.

This post was directed at parama, who'd explicitly talked about 'finding some excuse to townread jester" as a potential suspicion point for MDS.

[mhsmith0]

See

also really like 1038 solely for putting Jester right in the null pile. that makes me feel better about MDS in general. she could easily find some excuse to townlean him if she wanted.

So this also came at a point where MDS-Jester was at least a consideration (though after Dunn bailed and SAD voted shadow it was much lower moentum-wise).

Why did you think that dumping Jester in the null pile was meaningfully town-indicative? If the Jester-MDS pair was under public suspicion (and it was), then just openly town-reading him without substance would look suspicious in its own right from MDS (and presumably if she was scum at least one partner would be likely to have pointed it out). Am I missing something? Or was this actually just a null moment from her?

[mhsmith0]

Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.

The point is, at a meaningful leverage point, you doubtcast it and unvoted, cutting the legs out of its potential momentum. This suggests, to me, that your alignment is likely tied in with that pair's, since if all three wagons were town, then scum!you doesn't really have much incentive to bail on the wagon, while if the jester/mds pair had a wolf in it, then scum!you has a great incentive to seize on "that's not a slip" to try and derail the wagon and change the conversation in a way that isn't really all that likely to grab a large amount of attention. You can nitpick at it, but it's absolutely true that if jester-mds was a scum wagon you derailed it at an fairly important point in time, and "dunn drops a distancing vote and then bails when it actually gathers some momentum" is clearly a plausible explanation for what happened.

[Parama]

i've skimmed everything posted since last night but honestly i can't be bothered to actually read and comment right now. i'm preparing for vacation and then i'm gonna be limited access for a week lol

points of note: dunn is making his pair look even worse by pushing the blindingly, stunningly blatant townie HS who only continues to make moves that make absolutely zero sense coming from scum (the complete reevaluation of SAD after basically dismissing him as town is just, why would scum even bother, especially since practically everyone else seems to townread him)

uuhhh actually that's about the only thing i remember worth commenting on.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: gamma

Kagami, what made you vote Gamma at this point? Was it his overall flail? His vote on HS-Parama? Something else? This was (before Vedith's fuckup) potentially a pretty important vote, as it made Gamma/Vedith a 5-vote wagon and put them in the lead, and (had Vedith not epically fucked up) probably would have made it much more difficult to swing the wagon outside of shadow/maria vs gamma/vedith. And it didn't come with any commentary. So, what drove it?

[mhsmith0]

And with that I've reached the lowlight of the game, and am now tired and no longer interested in more reading.

[Human Sequencer]

Also you're the one who came out of the gate during this day and said Parama's reaction during night in your PT looked fabricated, how do you turn around and do this:

parama has said some things that just don't make sense coming from scum

because exactly like i said in the full post, parama has said some incredibly scummy things (HINT HINT SHADOW REACTION IN PT) but there's other things that I do not see coming from scum at all

Why are you so predictable, if you are indeed town?

idk how to answer this. it might be that i have a very basic input/output personality that once you understand becomes very easy to interpret and surmise upon. i'm actually terrified of how i will be as scum for when i actually roll scum because of it. i don't really think it'll matter though, because people already seem pretty split between "110% Obvtown" and "Relatively Scummy" wrt my town play.

Sure. Except I'm not misguided, and you were doing a stunt early in the day where you scumread parama but that doesn't add up here anymore

please read my posts today in which i described how my read on parama changed literally as it happened.

@arthur we should play chess sometime.

[Dunnstral]

Hs you're an enjoyable person btw, can you make sure the dead thread is lively? It always sucks when nobody is talking in there after a game like this

[Human Sequencer]

i'll do my best!

wait are you implying i'm dying today *grumble grumble*

despite what i have said before in pt i'm actually quite enjoying the game mostly due to a stellar playerlist, i like almost everybody still alive and really like a few of them
i just got demotivated because the game is -hard- instead of -easy- like usual but i chalk that down to being against actually good scum who can actually play the game properly (a first for me tbh)

FUCK THERE GOES HUMAN BUDDYING AGAIN IS THERE NO LIMIT

[Dunnstral]

I know you don't like to admit it from the last game but my reads were pretty much on point

If you're not scum, Parama almost certainly is.

From your flip I'll likely be able to nail another scum, which may then lead me to the third.

You should consider leaving the dance.

[Dunnstral]

Remember how early on I said people shouldn't leave the dance?
I'm over that. You should leave the dance

[Dunnstral]

I'm pretty sure everyone's given a stance at this point

Well, everyone I care about, for the time being.

[Human Sequencer]

[Human Sequencer]

your reads were 100% on point last game until you started scumreading me for ???
this is also why i posted the following

i think even though he's being overzealous he can absolutely win the game for us with enough information which is partly why i don't mind taking the bullet today

and why i'm still not totally against dying today i just fear you being scum or you being town and getting scumread to death

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Yeah, most of you guys have been fun to play with thus far, and I wouldn't mind playing with you again in the future. Like the people I'm scumreading and the people I'm townreading, don't think me being a jerk to people here equates to me having a personal grudge versus you or something, my playstyle is usually just super aggressive because that's the scumhunting that works best for me. And I'm down to play chess HS sometime.

That said, I still have to play to my wincon. And I really believe Parama is by far the best lynch today, her opening to this day seems fabricated, her overall push on me reeks of scum trying to push a mislynch now (even if it will end up in a death for her after my flip - I think scum are afraid of me/scout endgaming them as a town/town pair that will be hard to lynch during lylo).

[mhsmith0]

Remember how early on I said people shouldn't leave the dance?
I'm over that. You should leave the dance

If HS actually takes this advice (she shouldn't) and HS-Parama flips town-town (let's hope not), I'm just gonna stick my vote on Dunn and never move it.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Oh, would it be possible for Jester to get a prod mod? I know people deal with different rl stuff from time to time, but still stagnates the game hardcore when slots go empty like this and I basically have to take blind shot guesses as to their alignment.

[Human Sequencer]

He's probably at work, you know how he works 18 hours a day sometimes? So tragic!

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler:

Need to think about this and reread. Weekend is crazy so far.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: jester-mds

Thought they were L-1 or 2

DAE get "scum saving Mini+Jester for the final mislynch" vibes? I certainly get those vibes.

Why is there suddenly the trendto see mhsmith-pie as town? That's the worst assumption you can make.

Because I think pie is really obviously bloody town, like, her frustration and nervousness and uncertainty are 100% genuine, and if they aren't, then she's an Oscar-worthy actress and deserves to win just for that. As for Smith, I've been feeling slightly better about him ever since his defence from First Dance, where he was actively scumhunting and giving reads on people instead of just attacking his attackers and trying to deflect attention or buddy up townies in case he goes down. I know he could have been faking it and I haven't metaed his wolf games yet but the fact pie seems to agree with him for town gives me some confidence on that read.

Well it's def anti-town. Too many people are going "mhsmith/pie are the town pair lets just lynch through the rest of the player list" making me think scum are trying to propel them easily to endgame while looking like they're making townie idea by identifying a town pair. It puts little effort into actually scumhunting but masks itself as ~contribution~.

Maybe I'm just trying a different approach? Fail scumhunting is what got us to this point. Gamma wasn't scum. Shadow wasn't scum. Jester isn't scum. Nahdia tried to tell you to start townhunting instead but you were all too deep in your tunnels and scumgendas to care or take advice from somebody better.

mhsmith-pie isn't the town-town pair so you can stop preaching that. Arthur isn't getting lynched over your pair so you can stop that, too

I read the last 1/3 of your ISO and I just don't see enough reasoning for Smith/Pie scum. Like, you seem to be making all those judgements based on 'scummy' recent posts and totally ignoring what's been going on with that pair earlier. Are you ever going to account for that?

Why can't it just be that MDS townreads the pair? Like if MDS was townreading the pair and nobody else was, would it still be scummy?

???

What are you even saying? That didn't happen THIS game. In an alternative universe where MDS has been scumhunting, has have valid reasons for her mhsmith-pie read, and has came up with an original idea of mhsmith/pie as the town pair, then I would not have called out MDS as scumny for the post. But even then the idea would still be anti-row.

The problem is that's not the reality of THIS game. I don't look at single posts, but a person's posts on a whole and the flow of the game.

Like I seriously have no idea wtf you're trying to get out of your line of questioning. Are you just asking random things? Or are you in favor of blindly lynching everyone but the mhsmith-pie pair? If it's the latter make it clear now, take a stance without being waffly.

I've been pushing Kagami for a big portion of First Dance and I had a looong back-and-forth with Smith where he changed my mind about him. What has *your* scumhunting contribution been? Pushing mislynches? Have you ever actually made a serious case or interrogated your suspect? Have you ever reconsidered a read of yours? All I remember from you is posting irrelevant Yu Gi Oh cards and repeating "LYNCH SHADOW" in a different phrasing every time. I don't think that counts as scumhunting, so can you please drop the hypocrisy now?

Also the original idea part is just outright bullshit. I scumread Kagami when no one else did. I townread Gamma and Shadow when it was a super unpopular opinion. I was the first to suggest Gamma and Shadow pairs were both town. I was the first to call Smith scum and then changed my mind after we spoke. Like, the fantasy version of me in your head just doesn't match reality, period.

Unless I'm *way* overthinking this and you're just scum. That would definitely explain a lot.

Why do you think that was scum!kagami spewing mds/jester town?

That's not what she did. She unvoted because she thought we were at L-1 or -2, then re-voted. She definitely didn't think we were town.

We agree that HS is setting up a weird dichotomy between SAD and Parama (at least HS is the biggest contributor and the strangest)

What's weird about the dichotomy? POE says 1-2 of them are scum. Either they are double bussing or one is attempting to mislynch the other. It's odd that you both agree on it when it's just not that out there to suggest Arthur and Parama are enemies. Kagami seems to agree with you *a lot* in general, which is an established pattern from First Dance. Why isn't this pinging you? Also "She commented that everybody wants to lynch us but nobody really wants to lynch us" is what *I* have been saying about us and accusing her of, so it's definitely not a novel angle for her to try to push around.

Did she talk about why she isn't talking in thread? It seems a bit odd for her to be substantive in PT but not main thread; is this an availability thing? Something else?

She's pocketing him by agreeing with him a lot.

Wrt pie, I kinda think that town!pie means:
Dunn!scum
At least one scum in jester/parama
And nit sure where a third would be if jester/parama is v/w

And wolf!pie probably means:
Kagami!scum
Maybe HS!scum given his hard defense of me day one
And not really sure whether pie!scum makes jester more or less likely scum
And I kinda struggle to see

I don't think Dunn is scum, but I do think pie is town. She's just townreading Kagami based on past experience with her. Also why can't Arthur be scum?

Also: at this stage in the game, it is really really bad for scum if a town/town pair is accurately identified, so if pie is town your push on me (and possibly scouts, I need to think on that more) reads like "oh shit we can't let these two get accurately town read"

So pie/Dunn as v/w makes a shit ton of sense wrt the game state, and is in no way seem kind of "false dichotomy" I pulled out of my ass.

You know, that also explains why Arthur jumped so hard on me for trying to identify a town/town pair.

MDS, has he been flaking out or was he discussing things overnight?

Flaking. In his last posts he was apologising for not contributing and he said he was sick and forced to go to work anyway. He hasn't even been talking to me in private (like, outside of the game) since Dec 17. I'm a bit worried about him tbh.

it is a fairly typical scum tactic to ignore arguments for why your push is wrong and continue to push it anyway - town on the other hand would be legitimately forming reads and would at least consider it either way, not just continue to push for the sake of having a push

You mean like Arthur did with me and like I didn't do with Smith? And like Arthur and Parama did with Shadow and each other? (Okay, Parama actually admitted Shadow was kind of town but pushed anyway.)

can people who have town reads on Dunn explain why?

Mostly because I think Kagami is scum and I don't think they are scum together. But Dunn also has posts that give him some credibility (like reconsidering his read on me when I explained why I scumread his lover, back when I was a popular scumread and it would have taken next to no effort to lynch me). Also tone.

Parama is definitely a lot worse than SAD.

I don't know about that. Or maybe I'm just biased because Parama is townreading our pair and I've been on the receiving end of Arthur for a while now.

also, I'm still not sure what your actual reason for scum reading mhsmith at this point is and your recent posts directed to him have been as nitpick-y as your posts directed to me, so I'd like if you could run me through it again.

I noticed that, too, actually, I just wrote it off as a short-sighted tunnel because I was townreading Dunn.

This is again you wanting to keep a more consistent thought progression.

Or maybe she's just townreading you and scumreading Dunn and her thought progression *is* consistent? Like how I think Arthur is scummy for his tunnel but Dunn isn't necessarily?

Kagami's kind of feeling off to me again and I don't want to vote what she's pushing right now - being jester pair (to her annoyance I'm sure) because I feel like if she's scum and pushing a t-t pair scum would win off of that (not literally but we wouldn't be able to 'do it')

Makes sense because she feels like she's running out of options. Actually scum!Kagami could well implicate one of Smith/Pie, since they seem to be the only place where you two are at serious odds with each other.

Regardless, I don't think Jester and I will dodge the lynch throughout this whole game. What if we don't manage to lynch scum right now? We will be voted sooner or later and that'll probably be game over anyway. *sigh*

Up to 168. Will do the rest after breakfast.