New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

I really do not think I should keep being paranoid of you here but jesus fuck, I can't help it because pairing with a partner (and doing literally anything but what me/mhsmith did here) is probably exactly what I'd do in this setup.

[mhsmith0]

if any other wagon gets to l-1 i am suiciding, fun fact (sorry smith, i'm not as good at mafia as you, still love you)

fwiw, this essentially makes any voting data from today completely useless, and is just a longer version of a suicide. It's fine to push parama if you suspect her, it's fine to say "I really think it shoudl be parama, and I'm going to oppose and argue against any other wagon", but a hard suicide threat like that really isn't helpful.

[Human Sequencer]

i mean there's always the chance i'm just not here to suicide

i also suppose i'd let sad/scout fly because that just gets us closer to the same endgame and i really don't mind that pair gone in general

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

i also suppose i'd let sad/scout fly because that just gets us closer to the same endgame and i really don't mind that pair gone in general

[Human Sequencer]

because of scum! not because i dont like you!
:<

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

This is gonna sound super arrgonant and possibly do exactly the opposite of what I want but I seriously want to be the one to live to endgame because I'm like 99% sure inspector is town at this point. He has done almost no sort of buddying or attempting to win me over, and everything seems like genuine interaction.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

*Cue the "SAD-scum trying to win game during endgame" accusations*

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

My Vedith-bashing was extremely appropriate and has (I think) been quite useful in getting people not to continue the disgusting trend of suiciding that he started (and that massively submarined town's chances in the LAST iteration of this format, fwiw). Leaving the dance is exceptionally selfish and anti-town behavior unless you are UTTERLY certain that your partner is scum (and lo and behold, both vedith and shadow were wrong, and in vedith's case especially he deprived Gamma of the chance to convince the board that he was actually town, and the rest of the board the chance to actually evaluate a potential mislynch, including how people behaved in crunch time as majority actually got close).

Please don't post like this.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Like seriously what's happened happened don't blame others focus on trying to win the game instead of being pessmistic. Or scummy trying to look for blaming.

[Parama]

I am 100% against sad living to endgame because I'd like to win and that goes in direct opposition to a town win

I'll try to make actual content posts tonight or something but this bears repeating: sad is the immediate next lynch once our pair flips town, got it? pie can screw off with her plan tbh

[Human Sequencer]

HS and Parama both want sad/scout gone
Remember that in the reality that we both flip town
Also please lynch us

[inspectorscout]

and posts like these are the reason i am hard pushing pie/smith today

kagami is town in these posts

Explain why? What posts in particular seem like clear town, or really hard to fake, etc.?

Like, I look at what kagami has posted the past couple pages, and I don't really see anything that a competent scum player couldn't post. What am I missing?

hey scout, this is not a hard question to answer.

If I'm allowed to impersonate: "you townread me quite a lot, most people do, you aren't allowed to ask me questions because I'm town and that's scummy!"

If not: I agree with what she says to a certain extent (I don't think both of you are scum, but one of you could have easily faked their part of the thing) 4458 is , I think, a good argument, her tone is townie, also this

I also don't understand how pie considers jester-parama-dunn more likely than jester-parama-smith.

While that's irrelevant to actual execution, since I think we both agree that sad-scout lives following parama-jester scumlynches, it is strangely defensive.

Also, I appreciate your patience, mhsmith.

[inspectorscout]

HS and Parama both want sad/scout gone
Remember that in the reality that we both flip town
Also please lynch us

I'm fine with leaving if that happens, I guess

After pie/smith die.

[Kagami]

I really do not think I should keep being paranoid of you here but jesus fuck, I can't help it because pairing with a partner (and doing literally anything but what me/mhsmith did here) is probably exactly what I'd do in this setup.

I'm pretty confident that scum-scum pairing is optimal in a Large Dance unless it would be awkward to engineer, or there's someone in the list who you are confident would correctly scumread you.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.5

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [1] - MiniDeathStar
Human Sequencer - Parama [4] - Dunnstral, Ser Arthur Dayne, Kagami, Human Sequencer
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [1] - Parama
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [1] - inspectorscout
Dunnstral - Kagami [0] -

Not Voting [3]

- The_Jester, pieguyn, mhsmith0

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2016-12-25 17:00:00)

[Kagami]

actually hang on that doesn't work.

me -> you -> Jester pair if I flip town/town, me -> reevaluate from there if mhsmith is scum.

I think I'd want to move jester pair up. I'm not confident MDS will lynch him even if smith/dunn flip scum.

[Kagami]

We can keep that order, but I'd want to secure a promise from MDS before I left, which hopefully my flip would be humbling enough to enforce.

[Kagami]

If smith and parama are both scum, there's zero chance we re-evaluate to non-jester as the next lynch.

[Human Sequencer]

ITT: Everybody is fucking wrong mafia is laughing their ass off

[Parama]

HS and Parama both want sad/scout gone
Remember that in the reality that we both flip town
Also please lynch us

I'm fine with leaving if that happens, I guess

After pie/smith die.

no

[mhsmith0]

and posts like these are the reason i am hard pushing pie/smith today

kagami is town in these posts

Explain why? What posts in particular seem like clear town, or really hard to fake, etc.?

Like, I look at what kagami has posted the past couple pages, and I don't really see anything that a competent scum player couldn't post. What am I missing?

hey scout, this is not a hard question to answer.

If I'm allowed to impersonate: "you townread me quite a lot, most people do, you aren't allowed to ask me questions because I'm town and that's scummy!"

If not: I agree with what she says to a certain extent (I don't think both of you are scum, but one of you could have easily faked their part of the thing) 4458 is , I think, a good argument, her tone is townie, also this

I also don't understand how pie considers jester-parama-dunn more likely than jester-parama-smith.

While that's irrelevant to actual execution, since I think we both agree that sad-scout lives following parama-jester scumlynches, it is strangely defensive.

Also, I appreciate your patience, mhsmith.

1) how easy it is to fake that sort of thing? I find it increasingly bizarre that "well it could have been faked" or "it was easy to fake" is being advanced as an argument without anyone critically engaging in whether it looked fake, or any part of it was especially easy to fake, etc. "it could be fake" is insipid nonsense without any accompanying effort to evaluate whether it actually was fake

2) what about her tone is townie? Similarly, wrt the impression you offered, what about "you can't ask me questions because I'm town and that scummy" seems non-fakeable?

3) what makes 4458 a good argument? The dodge of my push for her to substantiate her read of pie/me? The "it was reasonably likely to be fake" without any substance behind it beyond "if pie really believed it she should have suicided" bit? The "it's the partners fault if we lose" bit that came without critical analysis of Dunn

Pie, I have meetings until 1pm, 3 hours from now. Let's chat then.

The best reason I have to townread Dunn right now is that he's been appropriately suspicious of me fairly often and said as much in PT. That's fake-able, but from what I've seen, he's not a master of subtlety by any means.

Dunn scum would imply a team of dunn-jester-sad or scout, to my mind, which seems pretty high energy.

I would think smith rather than dunn, but dunn is possible.

If Dunn, that would mean jester did an unusual-ish thing in putting me as the scumread in our pair, which seems counterintuitive. He also doesn't have any clear indication that he's going to be the one who goes the distance, such that bussing makes a lot of sense.

Was about as much as she'd talked about Dunn read this game, which is itself odd for someone who's essentially stated that it's super important to accurately read a partner (the only real interpretation of blaming the town partners for a potential loss).

I really don't see where the substance of your TR on her comes from, and I feel like it'd be useful to substantiate it with reasoning that's either better, clearer, or both.

[Kagami]

I don't really care what other people think about Dunn, so I'm not inclined to talk about my read on Dunn either here or in my PT.

If you really care to know, I don't think there's a high-probability partner for Dunn other than scout, which makes him probably town. If HS-Parama are town then there are some exotic possibilities, most of which I can't really do anything about, so it's likely optimal for me to just leave and hope it's something like Dunn-Scout-MDS.

[Dunnstral]

I've got nothing more to talk about. People off wagon can talk among themselves if they so choose.

[Dunnstral]

MDS stop self voting

[inspectorscout]

1) how easy it is to fake that sort of thing? I find it increasingly bizarre that "well it could have been faked" or "it was easy to fake" is being advanced as an argument without anyone critically engaging in whether it looked fake, or any part of it was especially easy to fake, etc. "it could be fake" is insipid nonsense without any accompanying effort to evaluate whether it actually was fake

2) what about her tone is townie? Similarly, wrt the impression you offered, what about "you can't ask me questions because I'm town and that scummy" seems non-fakeable?

3) what makes 4458 a good argument? The dodge of my push for her to substantiate her read of pie/me? The "it was reasonably likely to be fake" without any substance behind it beyond "if pie really believed it she should have suicided" bit? The "it's the partners fault if we lose" bit that came without critical analysis of Dunn

I think it's fair to assume both you and pie are capable of faking such conversation. I also wrote a paragraph on why I think pie's reaction was fake a while ago.

How can you describe a townie tone? It's there or it isn't.
The second part of that point was me mocking with our conversation about me questioning the IC.

If pie was really convinced you were scum, why wouldnt she leave when you were the one saying leaving is antitown?