Best lynch for today is HS/Parama. I said before either of them could be scum but it was probably HS, well my view has shifted. I think it's more likely to be Parama. Look at this play today compared to the first day. First day he was gung-ho about lynching a town pair. Today he's.... doing nothing? Even though pressure is forming on them they're not really responding and it doesn't seem like they're trying to figure things out. Keep note of this, because I'm going to bring it up again later
If we lynch the pair today and HS is scum after all, I'd put the lynch order at something like:
HS/Parama
---> Jester/MDS
If jester/mds flips town, I'd believe kagami as scum I wouldn't want to kill kagami before jester/mds
Jester/MDS ---> Kagami/me
If Jester/MDS flips scum from there instead, I would evaluate things again from that position
If Parama flips scum (and here's where most of what I've been talking about comes into play):
HS/Parama
---> SAD/Scout
Now here me out on this one. I've been toying around with the idea of a bus situation - now, this doesn't tell me
which
of the two are scum. Though I very much doubt they're both scum (which pie/kagami seem to think might be likely)
Here is why the order we kill people is important:
If Scout flips scum, I'd very much reconsider my read on mhsmith/pieguy pair. For obvious reasons, past interactions, what he's pushing today, etc.
I'd reevaluate the game from there.
If SAD flips scum (with Scout town) I'd be inclined to vote mhsmith/pieguy and that's probably game.
I know want this pair to be the pair that everyone suicides for that doesn't die. I don't. There's evidence to back this up:
-IC pair was killed. While this is a weak link, it suggests that scum were happy with the current state of affairs. If scum were all under heavy fire they'd likely wifom it and let cerb fall under suspicion
-Parama isn't doing anything. They're trying to look like they're doing something, but honestly it looks to me as if they've accepted their death. Possibly because it's all part of a bus.
-Scout doesn't deserve to be townread for... whatever he is for. Feels like whenever people talk about scout it's "Oh, dunn is scummy for pushing this and ignoring this other thing. JUST LIKE SCOUT DID BUT HE'S GENUINE ABOUT IT"
-SAD... well, scum can have good games. I've never played with him before so it would be folly to assume this is outside of his scum game.
-if either of these
fine gentlemen
are scum they're hoping to be SET on a parama scum flip and taking it to the end.
So to recap:
HS/Parama
---> SAD/Scout
If scout is scum
HS/Parama
--->
SAD/Scout
---> Jester/MDS (Probably, would think about it)
If SAD is scum
HS/Parama
--->
SAD/Scout
---> mhsmith/pieguy
If, however, HS/Parama flips town:
My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy
Take a look at the following quote:
In post 4383, mhsmith0 wrote: In post 4378, Dunnstral wrote:Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.
The point is, at a meaningful leverage point, you doubtcast it and unvoted, cutting the legs out of its potential momentum. This suggests, to me, that your alignment is likely tied in with that pair's, since if all three wagons were town, then scum!you doesn't really have much incentive to bail on the wagon, while if the jester/mds pair had a wolf in it, then scum!you has a great incentive to seize on "that's not a slip" to try and derail the wagon and change the conversation in a way that isn't really all that likely to grab a large amount of attention. You can nitpick at it, but it's absolutely true that if jester-mds was a scum wagon you derailed it at an fairly important point in time, and "dunn drops a distancing vote and then bails when it actually gathers some momentum" is clearly a plausible explanation for what happened.
The way mhsmith tries to tie me in with jester looks
off
here. Though it would be a bizarre state where he's pushing his own scum buddy while town pushes someone else so I'm not quite sold on this
Still, though:
HS/Parama
---> mhsmith/pieguy ---> Jester/MDS
Not sure beyond this. Would rethink. Might be Kagami in this scenario
Anyway:
@scout If you're town I'll definitely go after mhsmith/pie next. Order really is important. I can't lynch mhsmith/pie while doubting your slot.
@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.
Second:
pieguyn wrote:um, what?
I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.
I'm talking about these posts around this time period:
In post 4547, pieguyn wrote:SAD/Jester/Parama would mean that the scum team has been going for a mass-distancing approach the entire game, probably with the goal of getting SAD to endgame.
it's what the scum team the last game did, so I wouldn't rule it out, but... ugh.
Which actually came around 10 minutes after I said something eerily similar in my pt (though it was your pair instead of jester)
I feel sure she'd be fine with it, though.
