New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

for the record, when I said I was OK with Dunn picking the lynch order, I meant if Dunn/Kagami left and dictated it posthumously.

[Dunnstral]

Kagami, is 4620 something you've signed off on or is that something Dunn came up with entirely independently of what we've been talking about?

From this point:

If smith and dunn are both town, then we're looking at probably SAD-Jester-Parama. Does that seem plausible?

^ This post was made about 12 minutes after I wrote something in the pt (also the time I asked for Kagami to come into the pt). Kagami says she didn't see it (and I'm inclined to believe her, I don't think she would lie about it regardless)
I wasn't sure if your similar thoughts came from responding to kagami but what I meant by dismissing it is that you didn't really start to push those reads as a pairing or anything


What I posted wasn't GIANT like that, it was just some thoughts about parama/ sadscout

[inspectorscout]

@dunnstral didnt you read that me getting townread for bullshit reasons is one of the reasons I want mhsmith dead? I was the one who first mentioned it, even.

[Dunnstral]

Scout, scout, scout

There's more to that post. If you're town, I think you may be paired up with scum. And I need to know that you're town before I can go ahead onto mhsmith pair (Which I totally will)

If mhsmith is scum, and townreaing you like that, wouldn't it indicate that he's scum with SAD from your point of view? My lynch order should be

beneficial

in that case

[Dunnstral]

I do not fail to notice that if we're in the Dunn/Jester pair/SAD pair gamestate - which I'm starting to believe is increasingly more likely because MDS and Parama are sending town signals, even though they're slight ones - the end result of that plan is that the two town/town pairs are lynched immediately.

HS/parama were heavily townread day 1. IC was killed because scum were happy with the way things were going (maybe).
There's also parama slouching off and HS being predictable

I don't think that pair is town. And if they are, I don't think your pair is town.

[Dunnstral]

for the record, when I said I was OK with Dunn picking the lynch order, I meant if Dunn/Kagami left and dictated it posthumously.

For the record, I don't want to do that.

[Dunnstral]

You were considering something similar to what I said earlier, but you latched onto something to attack me about instead of discussing with me.

[Dunnstral]

aaand everyone's gone/ignoring my main points

post 1933 flashbacks

[Parama]

your main points against me are based on a false assumption, so

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: 1933

I'll start off with Kagami and this is going to be the longest one and contain the most new info... also I'm going to mix in reads on other people a lot here so bear with me I'm not that organized

First of all I may or may not be biased and want her to be town

I don't really know what she's doing. I asked why she wasn't responding to shadow in my pt and she said there was nothing for her to respond to. Thing is I know she her reads did transition in the pt but it didn't show in the main thread and she isn't defending herself so it looks bad. (Says she's posted enough for reads to be interpret-able and pie will get it)

Speaking of the pt, she's active in there too. She's got 65 posts in the main thread and ~60 in the pt and I'm willing to bet that's more than anybody else's half here (might be partially my influence as well)

Going to summarize some of Kagami's thoughts that I don't think need to be hidden (I'm outing mine too so)

-Really early in thinks jesterpair is correct choice. I agree with this
-Early on she thinks one of shadow-mariar and and gamma-vedith are town-town
-This read has shifted to now scumreading gamma, and thinking shadow-maria might be town-town
-Also thinks the ic pairing is town, along with us and hs-parama
-I've voiced suspicions on HS (mostly in-thread and tying in Kagami) while Kagami thinks HS is town but parama might need to be looked at (still thinks they're t-t for now)
. . . -I think Parama is town but question HS. Don't think either of us would lynch this right now/today though
-Says that if she were scum, she'd have paired with sickofit instead of me who scumread her
-Points out that jester townreads shadow but doesn't vote gamma though he scumreads gamma
. . . -This prompted me to ask about him intending to place a vote
. . . -Kagami made a good point very recently saying that Jester's townread on Parama is weird considering the strong townread on Shadow from the start


Note that when I pushed kagami as scum nobody bit, to the point where it seemed like everyone just said she was "lean town" when (imo) the read wasn't deserved
Based off of this I want to feel as if I'm not being pushed at all because I'm paired with Kagami.
In response kagami said she was a little offended that I assumed she was a weak scum player

As for her scumreads, they're jester, gamma, and mhsmith maybe in that order

In response to me she said if mhsmith were scum he'd be spending a low amount of effort sorting out his pt
. . . -This prompted me to ask mhsmith about his pt, to which the response from him and pie was that they hadn't really done anything (pie noted that mhsmith was 'passive')


Just from reading i got a gut townread on pie (not terribly important)
I feel as if mhsmith is mafia. I also feel good about Gamma being mafia

I've come to townread S.A.D and kagami agrees here. We're both "meh" on inspectorscout though it's not something that needs to be sorted immediately.
. . . -Kagami thinks that if mhsmith is scum this pair is very likely t-t


And that's all I have effort to write for now; ended up just being about Kagami... don't regret

To sum up my other reads:

I scumread mhsmith. In fact;
VOTE: Mhsmith-Pieguy

I still scumread gamma pair

Kagami suspects Jester pair
Current thoughts on Kagami pending

[Dunnstral]

your main points against me are based on a false assumption, so

Posts like this compared to you day 1 are what I'm talking about

[Parama]

your main points against me are based on a false assumption, so

[Parama]

for the record: i'm up like an hour later than i should be i'm going to sleep lol

[MiniDeathStar]

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Why them and not Arthur?

[pieguyn]

HS/parama were heavily townread day 1. IC was killed because scum were happy with the way things were going (maybe).
There's also parama slouching off and HS being predictable

I don't think that pair is town. And if they are, I don't think your pair is town.

no they weren't and if this is what you're basing your entire approach to the game off of then your view of the game is shallow.

even though you're attempting to say otherwise here, the IC kill is the standard kill regardless of scum team configuration or how the game is going. it doesn't matter if "Cv666 was scummy" or whatever - I've said the same thing to scout earlier, leaving the IC pair alive is a huge, huge risk because if for instance Cv666 was to come back and look town/get widely town read then no matter what happens the scum team is entirely fucked with no recourse. you can't claim "scum would try to WIFOM it up if it was going badly for them" because no, they wouldn't, not when there's a very real chance doing so would completely fuck them over and Cv666 outright hinted in this thread that his approach this game was to play badly D1 on purpose to dodge a night kill. the last game, the scum team was in a completely shit-awful position D1 and they didn't try to leave the IC alive, they fought through it because attempting to lynch the IC pair is just far too hazardous as a strategy.

plus - even on top of all of this, and this is what I find disingenuous about your argument - Parama/HS was not the only pair that was heavily town read D1, and my pair sure as hell was *not* widely town read D1. SAD/scout and your pair were also pretty widely considered town D1, and even though a lot of people thought Kagami was scum no one was scum reading you iirc. what you're saying here about "OMG scum were OK with how the game was going and this has to point to parama/HS and pie/mhsmith" isn't even true and I don't think you would be that unaware of this if you were town here.

You were considering something similar to what I said earlier, but you latched onto something to attack me about instead of discussing with me.

I wasn't - your entire plan relies on you being town and your pair not being lynched unless we're in scenarios that are transparently not true (HS being scum) or after most scum teams including you would have endgamed already, which is not an assumption I have made at any point in this game day. I think what you're doing here is something that you probably have to do as scum - as town there are almost certainly ways to lock the game even if it necessitates the death of your pair (as both Kagami and me are attempting to do), but as scum you can't agree to Kagami/me's plan because you can't win in that plan, so you have to invent an alternate plan with a bunch of contingencies and hope that you can confuse enough people and persuade them from placing their trust in me to placing their trust in you.

I personally want to know what Kagami has to say of the way you're approaching this when she arrives.

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, the post you quoted from Smith are just his thoughts that you *likely* share alignment with our pair. As in, if you're town, and you were voting us because you thought I was scum, you genuinely changed your mind after my Kagami read. But if you're scum with me or Jester, you just found an excuse to quit the distancing. I think the logic checks out.

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't deny Pie has a solid point there.

[pieguyn]

all of this - the fact that you're pushing arguments which show no depth of thought like "IC pair was killed because scum was OK with how the game was going", and the way that you're trying to force yourself on the game while ignoring key facts that disprove your approach - is consistent with my previous assessment of your play, as well.

I'm particularly curious to see Kagami's comment on my former point here in particular, since that's common sense and I'd think you're a smart enough player to be aware of this.

p-edit re: Dunn

[pieguyn]

@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.

this might just be you not reading my post correctly so I don't think you're scum for pushing this (plus I don't even know if this is the gamestate we're in anyway), but for completeness, the fact that you would vote SAD/scout here is irrelevant. in the gamestate where your strategy is to bus Parama and chain lynch my pair, SAD/scout is the other town/town pair and your goal is to mislynch me while retaining enough town cred to beat SAD/scout (who was at least until very recently the most widely town read pair) in a 6p/4p endgame. going ahead and lynching SAD/scout obviously makes this unnecessary.

[Dunnstral]

SAD/scout and your pair were also pretty widely considered town D1, and even though a lot of people thought Kagami was scum no one was scum reading you iirc.

If a lot of people considered Kagami scum, we weren't widely townread. It can't really be both... you understand this, right?

So your argument basically boils down to "Even though hs-parama were townread day 1, so were sad/scout!" which is what I said to begin with.

[Dunnstral]

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Why them and not Arthur?

Actually, you're right. I'll concede that Arthur pair should still go even if parama/hs flip town, because in that scenario kagami scum is likelier and mhsmith/pie town isn't 100% impossible so it's best to flip scout first and work off of that as I explained.

[Dunnstral]

and my pair sure as hell was *not* widely town read D1.

I never meant to imply that. I'm talking about hs/parama and SAD/scout

[Dunnstral]

"OMG scum were OK with how the game was going and this has to point to parama/HS and pie/mhsmith" isn't even true and I don't think you would be that unaware of this if you were town here.

Huh? How come it's about your pair again? I thought I said HS/Parama ---> SAD/scout ---> your pair

Do you disagree that if BOTH of those pairs flip scum, your pair is reasonable as the next lynch?

[Dunnstral]

Can't deny Pie has a solid point there.

Which one? Looks pretty misreppy to me

[pieguyn]

If a lot of people considered Kagami scum, we weren't widely townread. It can't really be both... you understand this, right?

So your argument basically boils down to "Even though hs-parama were townread day 1, so were sad/scout!" which is what I said to begin with.

wait hang on.

ignore the second part of my point (I misread), but it still doesn't change the fact that "IC pair died because scum is OK with how the game is going" is a shit argument and I think you're a smart enough player as town to realize that it's common sense the IC pair is pretty much always dead in this setup, unless they're widely scum read or have a very high chance of the IC ditching them, neither of which were the case with Cv666.