New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

Cv666 played badly on purpose, but 1. they weren't widely read as scum. all the suspicion directed towards him was basically "look at them again post-intermission", no (or if there was it was completely negligible) hard scum reads, and they explicitly implied in the fucking thread that their plan was to play badly on purpose to dodge a NK. see Kagami agreeing that Cv666 should have done more to actually look scummy here if he wanted to successfully run this as a gambit; 2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

so no, leaving the IC pair alive was impossible in this gamestate.

[Dunnstral]

your entire plan relies on you being town

Why is this bad coming from my point of view?

???

but as scum you can't agree to Kagami/me's plan because you can't win in that plan, so you have to invent an alternate plan with a bunch of contingencies and hope that you can confuse enough people and persuade them from placing their trust in me to placing their trust in you.

Don't know what to say. I'm pushing our best lynch for today. Order is important, I've been saying that. I wouldn't consider lynching kagami before seeing something like a town jester pair or a scum mhsmith pair, and I'm not willing to be the martyr that leads town to a loss.

[Dunnstral]

If a lot of people considered Kagami scum, we weren't widely townread. It can't really be both... you understand this, right?

So your argument basically boils down to "Even though hs-parama were townread day 1, so were sad/scout!" which is what I said to begin with.

wait hang on.

ignore the second part of my point (I misread), but it still doesn't change the fact that "IC pair died because scum is OK with how the game is going" is a shit argument and I think you're a smart enough player as town to realize that it's common sense the IC pair is pretty much always dead in this setup, unless they're widely scum read or have a very high chance of the IC ditching them, neither of which were the case with Cv666.

But you can't deny

In a state where HS pair and SAD pair both have scum in it

Acknowledging that my pair wasn't considered town day 1

Scum literally would have had to kill a scumread pair in order to not kill the IC pair

This isn't the very basis of my argument. It's supporting evidence.

[pieguyn]

Why is this bad coming from my point of view?

???

it isn't that it's bad from your point of view if you're town, it's that you tried to claim there was some contradiction in my play because I was suddenly pushing you despite "agreeing with something similar" to your plan earlier, which is either an intentional misrep or a misinterpretation because I have never agreed, and would never agree, to a plan that anchors around you being town.

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't deny Pie has a solid point there.

Which one? Looks pretty misreppy to me

4639, especially the second part. It kind of stood out that you barely considered Kagami as scum, even though you have your doubts about her. In contrast I, as much as I trust Jester, couldn't help myself but weigh him as an option in case Kagami is town *or* Parama is scum.

[Dunnstral]

2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

I don't see how this is relevant. This argument relies on scum knowing what nahdia would do. Implying you or Kagami (which is not what I'm saying)

[pieguyn]

it also happens to be exactly the kind of thing you need to be doing if you are in fact scum here, so...

invent reasons to throw shade on me and hope people stop trusting me and start following your plan (which doesn't call for your death until after scenarios where most scum teams you're on would endgame) instead.

[pieguyn]

Scum literally would have had to kill a scumread pair in order to not kill the IC pair

This isn't the very basis of my argument. It's supporting evidence.

OK. still a poor argument.

if scum are going to choose between a town pair and an IC pair with 0% of being lynched, they will always choose the IC pair.

[Dunnstral]

It kind of stood out that you barely considered Kagami as scum

Are you serious
I have. I've even talked to you about it. I've made a giant wall of text about it and I've constantly been annoyingly questioning her in our PT

And I still don't know. She strikes me as a good player and I'm probably going to be suspicious all game.

But really, open up my iso, ctrl + f kagami. It's all there. Look at this post:

Spoiler:

I'll start off with Kagami and this is going to be the longest one and contain the most new info... also I'm going to mix in reads on other people a lot here so bear with me I'm not that organized

First of all I may or may not be biased and want her to be town

I don't really know what she's doing. I asked why she wasn't responding to shadow in my pt and she said there was nothing for her to respond to. Thing is I know she her reads did transition in the pt but it didn't show in the main thread and she isn't defending herself so it looks bad. (Says she's posted enough for reads to be interpret-able and pie will get it)

Speaking of the pt, she's active in there too. She's got 65 posts in the main thread and ~60 in the pt and I'm willing to bet that's more than anybody else's half here (might be partially my influence as well)

Going to summarize some of Kagami's thoughts that I don't think need to be hidden (I'm outing mine too so)

-Really early in thinks jesterpair is correct choice. I agree with this
-Early on she thinks one of shadow-mariar and and gamma-vedith are town-town
-This read has shifted to now scumreading gamma, and thinking shadow-maria might be town-town
-Also thinks the ic pairing is town, along with us and hs-parama
-I've voiced suspicions on HS (mostly in-thread and tying in Kagami) while Kagami thinks HS is town but parama might need to be looked at (still thinks they're t-t for now)
. . . -I think Parama is town but question HS. Don't think either of us would lynch this right now/today though
-Says that if she were scum, she'd have paired with sickofit instead of me who scumread her
-Points out that jester townreads shadow but doesn't vote gamma though he scumreads gamma
. . . -This prompted me to ask about him intending to place a vote
. . . -Kagami made a good point very recently saying that Jester's townread on Parama is weird considering the strong townread on Shadow from the start


Note that when I pushed kagami as scum nobody bit, to the point where it seemed like everyone just said she was "lean town" when (imo) the read wasn't deserved
Based off of this I want to feel as if I'm not being pushed at all because I'm paired with Kagami.
In response kagami said she was a little offended that I assumed she was a weak scum player

As for her scumreads, they're jester, gamma, and mhsmith maybe in that order

In response to me she said if mhsmith were scum he'd be spending a low amount of effort sorting out his pt
. . . -This prompted me to ask mhsmith about his pt, to which the response from him and pie was that they hadn't really done anything (pie noted that mhsmith was 'passive')


Just from reading i got a gut townread on pie (not terribly important)
I feel as if mhsmith is mafia. I also feel good about Gamma being mafia

I've come to townread S.A.D and kagami agrees here. We're both "meh" on inspectorscout though it's not something that needs to be sorted immediately.
. . . -Kagami thinks that if mhsmith is scum this pair is very likely t-t


And that's all I have effort to write for now; ended up just being about Kagami... don't regret

To sum up my other reads:

I scumread mhsmith. In fact;
VOTE: Mhsmith-Pieguy

I still scumread gamma pair

Kagami suspects Jester pair
Current thoughts on Kagami pending

And realize it's not my only post about kagami

[pieguyn]

2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

I don't see how this is relevant. This argument relies on scum knowing what nahdia would do. Implying you or Kagami (which is not what I'm saying)

this is the kind of thing that reads more like you're just making excuses to force yourself over what I'm trying to say. Nahdia is not a shit player and this is obvious - they would not just impulsively ditch the IC, they'd only ditch the IC if it became obvious they were scum (or otherwise fell into heavy scum read territory).

[Dunnstral]

Scum literally would have had to kill a scumread pair in order to not kill the IC pair

This isn't the very basis of my argument. It's supporting evidence.

OK. still a poor argument.

if scum are going to choose between a town pair and an IC pair with 0% of being lynched, they will always choose the IC pair.

0% chance of being lynched?

Based on who? I personally wasn't considering them much because it was per-intermission, and it's obviously not good to lynch there before that. I would have considered cerb if he had been left alive. I maybe wouldn't even scumread him. I'd be talking about it

[Dunnstral]

2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

I don't see how this is relevant. This argument relies on scum knowing what nahdia would do. Implying you or Kagami (which is not what I'm saying)

this is the kind of thing that reads more like you're just making excuses to force yourself over what I'm trying to say. Nahdia is not a shit player and this is obvious - they would not just impulsively ditch the IC, they'd only ditch the IC if it became obvious they were scum (or otherwise fell into heavy scum read territory).

Who's the one making excuses?

Let me repeat myself. This isn't my main argument. Yet it's the only thing you're considering.

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, I was talking about your lynch orders. You only ever offer your pair on the menu if HS is scum, or if HS/Parama are town, with Smith and Jester being scum and lynched first, both of which I find incredibly unlikely.

[Dunnstral]

(which doesn't call for your death until after scenarios where most scum teams you're on would endgame)

Which is what? Always the opposite of what I'm pushing?

[Dunnstral]

You only ever offer your pair on the menu if HS is scum, or if HS/Parama are town

Right. The chance of kagami being scum goes down if Parama is scum. This is based off gut and observation from the pt. Obviously not impossible

There's no reason to "offer myself up" if I'm right and think I've found another scum? I've thought about this you know


I guess I don't see why I should offer myself up in that scenario

[MiniDeathStar]

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

There is no such scenario? We're lynching HS group now and going from there.

[The_Jester]

@Mod please try to find a replacement. There's no way I can catch up in the current state and I'm tired of being a burden.

HS and Mini are locktown for me.

Kagami's town or scum with smith due to her reaction to Maria's fake scumflip:

Smith is scum, look at smith-maria interactions.

It makes zero sense for scum!Kagami to write this about town!smith.

[Dunnstral]

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

There is no such scenario? We're lynching HS group now and going from there.

What do you mean there's no such scenario? No such scenario that I'm dead-on with my reads...?

Pie is adamantly against the HS-Parama pair. Though it's not impossible that she's just so tunneled on everything I say for ~reasons~

[Dunnstral]

@Mod please try to find a replacement. There's no way I can catch up in the current state and I'm tired of being a burden.

HS and Mini are locktown for me.

Kagami's town or scum with smith due to her reaction to Maria's fake scumflip:

Smith is scum, look at smith-maria interactions.

It makes zero sense for scum!Kagami to write this about town!smith.

err

I completely disagree with this post... what Kagami says there is based off the assumption that maria had flipped scum. If she were scum there, obviously she's not bound to it once maria flips town. Quite the opposite, in fact. She hasn't been up for lynching mhsmith pair at all.

[The_Jester]

And this is my point exactly. She could have made herself look like she was distancing from smith without any danger of getting him incriminated cause she would've known Maria would've flipped town.

[Dunnstral]

Pie I wish you'd consider my point of view and my points more carefully instead of going on a crusade against me. If you're town bashing everything I say really doesn't help me and I've explained that mhsmith is a strong contender for scum

but I'm not going after your pair

But you assume the pair I'm pushing has to be town (even though by your own judgement you couldn't see a scenario where they were town town) because you're looking to find a flaw with everything I do

[MiniDeathStar]

You only ever offer your pair on the menu if HS is scum, or if HS/Parama are town

Right. The chance of kagami being scum goes down if Parama is scum. This is based off gut and observation from the pt. Obviously not impossible

There's no reason to "offer myself up" if I'm right and think I've found another scum? I've thought about this you know


I guess I don't see why I should offer myself up in that scenario

Yes, the chance of Kagami being scum does go down if Parama is scum. However, if HS and Parama are both town, it makes a lot of sense for Kagami to be scum with Smith and Arthur.

[MiniDeathStar]

Jester noooooooooo

[Dunnstral]

And this is my point exactly. She could have made herself look like she was distancing from smith without any danger of getting him incriminated cause she would've known Maria would've flipped town.

Right. She could have done that. Though I don't see why she couldn't make that post if she were town and mhsmith pair had scum. Or vice versa (though I don't believe there's a scenario where mhsmith pair is town and kagami is scum... or I'm thoroughly off)

[Dunnstral]

However, if HS and Parama are both town, it makes a lot of sense for Kagami to be scum with Smith and Arthur.

But..... Smith and Arthur are who I wanted to lynch if HS and Parama are both town..... and then I'd reconsider from there

We're not in disagreement... you just think lagami should go before the other pairs