New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

*kagami

lol

[Dunnstral]

Jester noooooooooo

Though not quite as emotional, I agree it sucks that he has to replace out

[MiniDeathStar]

Although I suppose town!Parama *could* also mean Smith/Arthur/Jester, with Smith and Arthur bussing Jester all game long because they felt he was a dead weight, and Kagami just buying into the scheme.

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

In either case, I think Arthur should definitely come before Smith. He's a lot scummier.

[MiniDeathStar]

It's also HS/Para's deathwish.

[Dunnstral]

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

What is Arthur bussing in that scenario?

I hadn't considered that option. How likely do you think it is and why should I consider it?

[Dunnstral]

In either case, I think Arthur should definitely come before Smith. He's a lot scummier.

We both agree on this in all scenarios. Not for the same reasons, but we have the same motives.

[Dunnstral]

It's also HS/Para's deathwish.

I believe HS's deathwish was to let me solve the game and not get scumread, actually

[pieguyn]

Let me repeat myself. This isn't my main argument. Yet it's the only thing you're considering.

I don't care that it isn't your "main argument". I care that it's a disingenuous argument, and it reads like something you're hoping to bring up hoping people read it without thinking critically about it. I also care that you've attempted to twist practically every interaction we've had this game day around in a way designed to make me look worse than you in a way that is more likely to come from scum than town (see: "who's the one making excuses now?" and you immediately seizing up and calling my posts on you "misreps" because you feel that if you don't contest it by calling it a misrep you'll look worse because of it, trying to spin me as "tunneling on everything you're posting").

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

if this is what you believe, and you feel firm in this belief, then you should have no problem committing to a plan where Jester/MDS's pair survives to endgame, regardless of whether it necessitates the death or your pair - this is more so the case given your stated suspicion on Kagami throughout the entire game. instead, we get you not being willing to go along with it - again, DESPITE your stated suspicion of Kagami throughout the entire game - and attempting to throw shade on me and invent a completely separate plan that just so happens not to call for Kagami's death until the majority of scum teams including you would have already been brought into endgame.

you aren't doing this because you feel it has the best chance of a town win - you do this because you need to figure out a way to spread suspicion on me and stop people from following my plan here

(which doesn't call for your death until after scenarios where most scum teams you're on would endgame)

Which is what? Always the opposite of what I'm pushing?

I have literally just said that in a game state where it's a scum team of you/Jester/{scout, SAD}, the result after executing your plan is that you endgame. there are others, but that is the most apparent one. there are other scenarios, such as it being you/Parama/Jester, in which case the result after executing your plan would be a 4p MYLO where you start off displaying a preference to lynch Jester pair but have room to reevaluate and play around it if need be. I recommend anyone who is reading this post to re-read Dunn's 4620 in mind and actually think: where would the game state end up if we have most plausible scum teams with him on it?

Pie I wish you'd consider my point of view and my points more carefully instead of going on a crusade against me. If you're town bashing everything I say really doesn't help me and I've explained that mhsmith is a strong contender for scum

but I'm not going after your pair

But you assume the pair I'm pushing has to be town (even though by your own judgement you couldn't see a scenario where they were town town) because you're looking to find a flaw with everything I do

this is me acknowledging this post. it would be nice if I could consider your point of view, but that is very difficult when everything you're writing has been based around the assumption you're town and I don't trust that you're town at all, especially when in all of interactions this game day you have tried to paint everything I've said as scummy in some way or another (in a scenario where spreading suspicion on me is pretty much your only out to win as scum...) - I'd be much more open to it if you were able to accept the fact that your pair likely needs to die before endgame in some way or another, but you've explicitly said you don't support any such plan.

[pieguyn]

like, I would happily accept a plan that called for the death of my pair, even though I think mhsmith is town, if I thought the logic behind it was sound and I felt certain it'd lead to a win (because duh I might just be wrong about mhsmith).

you, on the other hand, don't accept any such plans for your pair, despite you being noticeably _suspicious_ of Kagami... what am I supposed to say to that?

[Dunnstral]

like, I would happily accept a plan that called for the death of my pair, even though I think mhsmith is town, if I thought the logic behind it was sound and I felt certain it'd lead to a win (because duh I might just be wrong about mhsmith).

you, on the other hand, don't accept any such plans for your pair, despite you being noticeably _suspicious_ of Kagami... what am I supposed to say to that?

But I do

If I'm wrong about that parama scum thing most options lead to my death.

[Dunnstral]

if this is what you believe, and you feel firm in this belief, then you should have no problem committing to a plan where Jester/MDS's pair survives to endgame, regardless of whether it necessitates the death or your pair

But I can't. I'm considering multiple scenarios, not all of them leave jester pair alive

It's kind of risky? I might consider it. But I won't consider it

now,

before I'm able to see this through

[Dunnstral]

and invent a completely separate plan that just so happens not to call for Kagami's death until the majority of scum teams including

What scum teams including me and how likely are they? And for which plan?

[Dunnstral]

this is me acknowledging this post. it would be nice if I could consider your point of view, but that is very difficult when everything you're writing has been based around the assumption you're town

If you're saying I should treat it in the third person and consider other peoples suspicions on

me

(not kagami) as reason to lynch my pair... I cannot.

I'm able to consider people's reads on me in a way to figure out their alignment, however.

[pieguyn]

But I do

If I'm wrong about that parama scum thing most options lead to my death.

reading your plan from the top, the options that lead to your death are

- HS is scum and Jester/MDS is town/town. HS is transparently not scum here, so this isn't going to happen.

...

and that's it. all of the other options basically lead into "I'll reevaluate", which gives you plenty of room to maneuver as scum. so, no, that doesn't limit your options as scum at all.

what am I missing here?

[Dunnstral]

I have literally just said that in a game state where it's a scum team of you/Jester/{scout, SAD}

And how likely do you think that is?

Preferrably don't base your entire argument off things I've done. Why is jester pair linked to scout/sad pair?

[MiniDeathStar]

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

What is Arthur bussing in that scenario?

I hadn't considered that option. How likely do you think it is and why should I consider it?

He could be bussing Jester via his girlfriend (i.e. me). Pretty unlikely though, since he said he's nullreading Jester and scumreading me, not vice-versa. If Parama is town and Arthur is scum, I don't think I'll concede to a Jester lynch unless *you* Dunn flip scum.

[Dunnstral]

and that's it. all of the other options basically lead into "I'll reevaluate", which gives you plenty of room to maneuver as scum. so, no, that doesn't limit your options as scum at all.

Why should I pretend to limit my options, when I've shown that I'm capable of considering everything?

How about this: If you consider me as town, what would you think of what I wrote?

[Dunnstral]

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

What is Arthur bussing in that scenario?

I hadn't considered that option. How likely do you think it is and why should I consider it?

He could be bussing Jester via his girlfriend (i.e. me). Pretty unlikely though, since he said he's nullreading Jester and scumreading me, not vice-versa. If Parama is town and Arthur is scum, I don't think I'll concede to a Jester lynch unless *you* Dunn flip scum.

OK. Well, for that kagami has said (in-thread, not our pt... but also in our pt) that she townreads SAD or that on reread he looks good. It's at least plausible that they'd be bussing one pair while trying to win with the other.

"Bussing" doesn't mean much if there isn't a vote and a chance at the person being lynched, however.

[Dunnstral]

@pieguy do you think that if parama flips scum I should die too?
That seems to be what's being implied

[MiniDeathStar]

Well Arthur has been persistently scumreading me all game (for flimsy reasons) and I think the only reason he hasn't cast a vote on me yet is because he was too busy tunneling Shadow and then Parama. Which makes sense if he was just distancing from Jester.

In that case if Arthur and Kagami both go down and flip scum, scum!Jester looks insanely good. But I don't think that could've been the plan all along because Jester was in serious danger of getting lynched until very very recently.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pieguy do you think that if parama flips scum I should die too?
That seems to be what's being implied

I think she's saying you should die if Parama flips town.

[Dunnstral]

In that case if Arthur and Kagami both go down and flip scum, scum!Jester looks insanely good.

There's a big problem with that plan. If it weren't for me, jester/you would have been lynched by now. ...It's absolutely true

And I think I'm making the right choice here. I'm thinking we're going on the parama path of lynches

[Dunnstral]

@pieguy do you think that if parama flips scum I should die too?
That seems to be what's being implied

I think she's saying you should die if Parama flips town.

...Maybe. The way Kagami switched from jester to parama... I want to believe that I was able to convince her to move there, but with your scenario she would have been bussing and I'd be pushing on a town pair

I'd want to figure out possible pairings at least

[pieguyn]

If you're saying I should treat it in the third person and consider other peoples suspicions on me (not kagami) as reason to lynch my pair... I cannot.

I'm saying that if you want me to consider your plan as theoretically sound, then 1. it either needs to include the death of your pair or 2. it needs to place you in a position where your pair is town/town with very high confidence. this does not apply solely to your pair, either, the entire point is that in some way or another we wind up with a very high confidence town pair left at the end and that we avoid lynching both town/town pairs no matter what.

what me/Kagami are attempting to do here is not traditional chain lynching - it is organizing a strategy intended to break the game from an objective POV. if you flip scum, I think I can objectively say that my pair is highly likely town/town and I don't think I'm biasing here because Kagami agrees (if this wasn't the case I wouldn't agree to be the last pair. last game I fought really hard to be the last pair standing and my partner was scum and it was basically singlehandedly the reason town lost, and I wouldn't be able to live with myself it it happened again). I don't feel 100% on SAD/scout town if you're town, but at the moment I do think it's the most likely town pair. I hope at some point we'll figure out some way which prove them with higher confidence, or a different higher-confidence town pair and I can feel more secure with it, but if that isn't the case I'd still likely go with it.

you can't just complain that I'm not considering your thoughts because I don't just drop what I'm doing and decide to follow your plan instead of doing this. I can try to consider what you're writing, but I'd never actually follow your plan unless you suddenly did something very, very town. I can double-check in detail to see again if any of the arguments you wrote in your post ware convincing, but a lot of it seemed to be really heavily just based on your reads at first glance.

I think you probably need to die regardless of what Parama's alignment is. I could easily see a team like Jester/Parama/you if they're scum and there are some other cases like Jester/you/scout or SAD if they're town (as I said, the thing that I feel most confident in is that if you are scum mhsmith is town).

[pieguyn]

also, if you're town and you are just attempting to get me to consider your POV here, I do not understand why you keep doing things like calling my posts "misreppy", claiming I ignore things which I haven't actually ignored, labeling me as "tunneling", etc.

all of these are indicative more of an approach that suggests you are just attempting to make me look worse than you, not an approach that suggests you want me to consider your POV. if it's just your style or whatever, then OK, but that is where I come from when I say you've been consistently interacting with me in a scummy way this game day since there is significant scum motivation to act like this here (this being that if my plan goes through it ends in a loss for you-scum so you-scum would need to find reasons to throw shade at me) and if you're town I hope you being aware of this will cause us to talk past each other less.