New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I'm requesting on no uncertain terms that if I leave (before any one else flips) and dunn flips town, the rest of the town follows SAD-scout, and that in the case where Dunn flips scum, town follows piesmith.

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Are you saying if Parama is town or?

If Parama is town then the scum team is most likely Dunn/mhsmith/MDS.

I guess replace Jester if you want instead of MDS it doesn't really matter much.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I already said inspector doesn't make sense with Dunn or with mhsmith, so it's not gonna be inspector + one of those 2. So it has to be {Dunn/mhmsiht/(Jester/MDS)}.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

That's assuming IF Parama is town,

Which is why we need the flip to know if the scumteam has her or not.

[Kagami]

I'm requesting on no uncertain terms that if I leave (before any one else flips) and dunn flips town, the rest of the town follows SAD-scout, and that in the case where Dunn flips scum, town follows piesmith.

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Are you saying if Parama is town or?

If Parama is town then the scum team is most likely Dunn/mhsmith/MDS.

I guess replace Jester if you want instead of MDS it doesn't really matter much.

I'll take this as a non-objection.

[Kagami]

O, dunn-smith.

Why do you think dunn is scum with smith?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

O, dunn-smith.

Why do you think dunn is scum with smith?

Well mostly by POE.

But Dunn had weird jab at mhsmith iirc when Pie and him were having the argument that made it look weak and contrived as hell, and then Dunn/mhsmith had a fake back and forth.

[Dunnstral]

I'm requesting on no uncertain terms that if I leave (before any one else flips) and dunn flips town, the rest of the town follows SAD-scout,

But I disagree with this...

[Dunnstral]

If Parama is town then the scum team is most likely Dunn/mhsmith/MDS.

Really?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

My biggest paranoia btw is Pie/mhsmith both scum, prob with Dunn. Someone mentioned this earlier but I seriously started having doubts about their back and forth. It's not unlikely for mhsmith to come up with a plan to have arguments with both his scumbuddies at a time when they weren't being scrutinized for massive distancing.

How likely that scenario is I'm not sure.

[Dunnstral]

If we die today I want the lynch order to be as I outlined before in my bigger post

[Kagami]

If we assume dunn is scum, then he started out with a townread on smith that turned around at about 1600ish in the main thread for kind of silly reasons, and he maintained a position of heavy suspicion on smith from there out.

In the PT, he generates further reasons for smith-scum, including a 2433 quote which he says he reads as smith justifying scum fighting their lynch to the end while town suicides. He continues in that direction including a "let's see how he reacts to my vote."

I'd say that HS-Parama is also very likely town given dunn-scum, but piesmith seems somewhat more confidently so to me.

[Parama]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

[Kagami]

of note in PT "smith looks like obvious scum to me."

[Dunnstral]

If I die we STILL need to kill Scout's pair before mhsmith's pair and if scout is scum probably don't kill mhsmith pair

If scout is town definitely kill mhsmith pair after

Kill parama pair first afterwards though

Follow what I outlined

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

If we assume dunn is scum, then he started out with a townread on smith that turned around at about 1600ish in the main thread for kind of silly reasons, and he maintained a position of heavy suspicion on smith from there out.

You really think it's beyond mhsmith's caliber to tell his scummates to start having suspicion on him to distance early and then set up a fake back and forth so when one of them flips town the other gets a free ride?

[Dunnstral]

Kagami why are you assuming I'm going to flip scum? And pushing something weird/contrary to what I've been saying if we're town

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

"I'm fine with any path that doesn't allow SAD to live to endgame because that means I will lose"

Cool good to know you're still being useless and just want to see me dead so I don't endgame you.

Everytime I have doubts about your flip you make huge redflag posts that basically boils down to "just lynch SAD". If you're not gonna reconsider my slot and only keep your reads static then I don't see how you can be approaching this game with a town-mindset.

[Kagami]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

If we're town, then scout is townreading us for what reason?

Smith spent a lot of today positioning himself for kagami-scum/kagami-discrediting, but did so in an interaction that would make scout town as well.

So that makes SAD the likely scummo in that pair, and I don't really see any compelling connection between SAD and smith/pie or jester/MDS.

[Kagami]

Kagami why are you assuming I'm going to flip scum? And pushing something weird/contrary to what I've been saying if we're town

While you've been a lovely partner, it's disappointing that we still don't seem to understand each other. I'm afraid this may be our last dance~

[Dunnstral]

So that makes SAD the likely scummo in that pair, and I don't really see any compelling connection between SAD and smith/pie or jester/MDS.

You haven't read my posts are are ignoring me

[Dunnstral]

Kagami why are you assuming I'm going to flip scum? And pushing something weird/contrary to what I've been saying if we're town

While you've been a lovely partner, it's disappointing that we still don't seem to understand each other. I'm afraid this may be our last dance~

O Kagami, if you were to do such a thing we would still need to clear up what exactly town should do based on what I'm saying~

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Smith spent a lot of today positioning himself for kagami-scum/kagami-discrediting, but did so in an interaction that would make scout town as well.

Fwiw I will say that inspector's mhsmith scumread could look like early distancing because he's pushing it at a time when it wasn't likely to happen so he can play I told you card after. It's also what he was kinda setting up for in our PT.

That said I don't think the mhsmith questioning inspector over the question to Nahdia was likely to come from scum-scum pair, that's the reason their pairing is very low chance in my mind, it didn't look like it was setup or a buddy talking to a buddy.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

After Shadow lynch mhsmith was basically (paraphrase) "Okay you got your way now please trust me on mhsmith",

At a point when wrongfully lynching mhsmith meant we go into lylo, so I wouldn't be expecting someone to be this confident on a scumflip so it feels like he knew there wasn't gonna be much danger and then he can get massive town points.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

inspector*, not mhsmith first line.

[Kagami]

I've read your posts dunn, the problem is that if you're town and haven't yet flipped town, there's not a lot of reason to address your preferred flowchart, since it has the inherent weakness of potentially coming from scum. It would be slightly more compelling if we were invariably lynch #2 in it, but we are not.

I like my idea better in part because it's simple and succinct, and given it I'd place the 3rd-person EV at above the baseline 57% and certainly above the 40% EV we have presently.

The jester replace is a bit interesting, since we'll at least get some feedback on MDS, but I don't know how much I really care unless we get someone particularly exciting.