New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

The problem is you don't seem to lend any credence to my ideas even in the case of a town flip

[Dunnstral]

So why even type them out

[mhsmith0]

My biggest paranoia btw is Pie/mhsmith both scum, prob with Dunn. Someone mentioned this earlier but I seriously started having doubts about their back and forth. It's not unlikely for mhsmith to come up with a plan to have arguments with both his scumbuddies at a time when they weren't being scrutinized for massive distancing.

How likely that scenario is I'm not sure.

I'd certainly be capable of coming up with the idea, but what makes you think I'm capable of executing it effectively? That sort of massive distancing operation is something I've never pulled off as scum, and there'd also be substantial risk that the me/pie wagon takes off, at a point in time when (presuming me/Dunn/pie) all of towns attention is on town wagons. That seems kind of a crazy risk to take in a theoretical game state where it was roetty clearly unnecessary, so other than "I guess it's possible" what actually makes you think it's realistically likely? I get that you said you're not sure, but if you're trying to explore a potential town!parama world, I don't really get why you think that outcome would be the one that comes to mind.

[inspectorscout]

im fine with leaving if that makes it 100% sure that you guys will lynch mhsmith/pie when I flip town.

[mhsmith0]

Ps in a world in which HS-parama is town-town, why in the world does scum!me not just hammer when I had the chance? Like, obviously it would look bad, but keeping her alive with the chance to town tell or game solve seems super risky, compared to pushing along a LYLO state where town would need to hit 3/3 lynches to win. Obviously this ignores a me/pie team, but even ignoring me knowing it's false that strikes me as a transparently ridiculous notion. I guess I could theoretically be scum with a scum-scum pair, but even there it seems like scum!me should always hammer in that spot instead of questioning pie in PT on why she made the l-1 vote.

[mhsmith0]

Pps Any townie who thinks suiciding is pro-town at this point needs to get their head examined. Threats to leave SHOULD be reserved for scum trying to wifom their way into town credit.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

My biggest paranoia btw is Pie/mhsmith both scum, prob with Dunn. Someone mentioned this earlier but I seriously started having doubts about their back and forth. It's not unlikely for mhsmith to come up with a plan to have arguments with both his scumbuddies at a time when they weren't being scrutinized for massive distancing.

How likely that scenario is I'm not sure.

I'd certainly be capable of coming up with the idea, but what makes you think I'm capable of executing it effectively? That sort of massive distancing operation is something I've never pulled off as scum,

and there'd also be substantial risk that the me/pie wagon takes off

, at a point in time when (presuming me/Dunn/pie) all of towns attention is on town wagons. That seems kind of a crazy risk to take in a theoretical game state where it was roetty clearly unnecessary, so other than "I guess it's possible" what actually makes you think it's realistically likely? I get that you said you're not sure, but if you're trying to explore a potential town!parama world, I don't really get why you think that outcome would be the one that comes to mind.

That's not the one that is at the forefront of my mind.

It's the paranoia scenario lurking at the back of my mind.

The part I bolded is simply not true. At that time it wasn't likely you were gonna take off at all. And I had previously complained about Pie lacking passion in her posts. Which makes me think you went "hmm lets have a big ~passionate~ argument so we can be a strong contender for town/town pair". It happens A LOT where huge arguments end up being read as both town/town, you can look at my last game where I had a huge argument with LLD and people claimed it was town/town. In a world where Parama is town then it could be very likely you want Parama lynch (town flip) -> if Jester/MDS lynch (town flip) then you win the game. But you're setting it up as even if you go Parama (town flip) -> Dunn/Kagami lynch (scum flip) you're riding for endgame because you will either lynch my pair or Jester/MDS regardless.

[Dunnstral]

im fine with leaving if that makes it 100% sure that you guys will lynch mhsmith/pie when I flip town.

Well the reason I'm not voting piie group is because you'd need to be dead first? And there's another group I'm interested int oo

SO I wouldn't be opposed to this. But I get the feeling you wouldn't really do it regardless

[mhsmith0]

And anyone who doesn't understand that basic fact needs to look at the current game state where parama is trying to live, and how interactions are in the process of developing. Were just halfway through the game day, and we are nowhere near where we need to cut things off.

Also jester replacement isn't here yet and any lynch or suicide should ALWAYS wait for that to happen.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Pps Any townie who thinks suiciding is pro-town at this point needs to get their head examined. Threats to leave SHOULD be reserved for scum trying to wifom their way into town credit.

Btw how mhsmith continues to repeat this point is extremely EXTREMELLLLY concerning me.

Almost like every time he repeats it he wants to go LAMIST.

Pie did the leaving threat thing in their huge argument and he repeated the same thing which looked fake af.

[mhsmith0]

Pps Any townie who thinks suiciding is pro-town at this point needs to get their head examined. Threats to leave SHOULD be reserved for scum trying to wifom their way into town credit.

Btw how mhsmith continues to repeat this point is extremely EXTREMELLLLY concerning me.

Almost like every time he repeats it he wants to go LAMIST.

Pie did the leaving threat thing in their huge argument and he repeated the same thing which looked fake af.

And it's concerning to me that you seem to be preparing for a world in which parama flips town, while simultaneously being very comfortable on her wagon.

Ps she claimed it WAS fake, as part of a reaction test. One of the many reasons at the time I was suspecting her.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Ps in a world in which HS-parama is town-town, why in the world does scum!me not just hammer when I had the chance? Like, obviously it would look bad, but keeping her alive with the chance to town tell or game solve seems super risky, compared to pushing along a LYLO state where town would need to hit 3/3 lynches to win. Obviously this ignores a me/pie team, but even ignoring me knowing it's false that strikes me as a transparently ridiculous notion. I guess I could theoretically be scum with a scum-scum pair, but even there it seems like scum!me should always hammer in that spot instead of questioning pie in PT on why she made the l-1 vote.

You mean when Pie put Parama at L-1?

If you are scum with Pie or if you're solo scum I would have pushed you massively if you hammered the Parama pair and they turned town. I don't think you believe this point yourself you honestly wouldn't dare risk that without setting up yourself as having a scumread on Parama, you're not that bad of a scum player so your point her looks unbelievable even for you to.

[Kagami]

Hmm, EV of this game is 43/68. Surprisingly townsided.

No Dunn, I'm fine with giving your position credence upon knowing you're town (and I think you're probably town already, so shruggles), but I don't think you can command the position of leadership you seem to expect prior to that being proven even if you are town, which is what your plan entails.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

And it's concerning to me that you seem to be preparing for a world in which parama flips town, while simultaneously being very comfortable on her wagon.

Yes because I already said I need Parama to flip because I need to know if the scumteam contains her or not. If we flip someone else and they turn to be town and Parama is the scum she will literally push me at lylo and possibly cause inspector to leave dance or for you to lynch me. I'm sorry but I do not trust that I will not be lynched by you guys in a possible lylo with Parama-scum.

[inspectorscout]

pie-parama-dunn could be reasonable?

also with leaving i meant getting lynched.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw it's a well known fact that I am pretty non confident in my scum game. So the idea that I'd pair up with a scum-buddy (at a time when this was totally unnecessary), and then engineer a fake fight (also at an unnecessary time), with the very significant risk that I'd screw it up and get us both lynched early, seems so completely contrary to how scum!me would think that anyone who knows me at all should realize it's false.

Like, here's how I think as scum
I go for relatively low risk plays (unless I feel like I have to)
I try and blend in
I tell my buddies (unless they suck or are newbies) that they're free to bus me whenever if they think they can pull it off

That's my basic scum play style. It works reasonably adequately for the most part. So the idea that I'd just go totally against how I play, in a setup that's normally scum sided, and with a theoretical team of people who don't suck as scum... I just don't get how anyone could actually believe it.

[Kagami]

I hate smith posts. All of them.

[Kagami]

Well maybe not all of them, but I've come to dread their appearance in general.

[Kagami]

Pie, are you around~~~?

[inspectorscout]

How hard is it for people to understand that awareness of your own meta and even using it as an argument renders it at best NAI.

[mhsmith0]

Ps in a world in which HS-parama is town-town, why in the world does scum!me not just hammer when I had the chance? Like, obviously it would look bad, but keeping her alive with the chance to town tell or game solve seems super risky, compared to pushing along a LYLO state where town would need to hit 3/3 lynches to win. Obviously this ignores a me/pie team, but even ignoring me knowing it's false that strikes me as a transparently ridiculous notion. I guess I could theoretically be scum with a scum-scum pair, but even there it seems like scum!me should always hammer in that spot instead of questioning pie in PT on why she made the l-1 vote.

You mean when Pie put Parama at L-1?

If you are scum with Pie or if you're solo scum I would have pushed you massively if you hammered the Parama pair and they turned town. I don't think you believe this point yourself you honestly wouldn't dare risk that without setting up yourself as having a scumread on Parama, you're not that bad of a scum player so your point her looks unbelievable even for you to.

That only works if my red flip clearly sets up you-scout as town (barring a theoretical me-scout team of course), AND if I couldn't believe you'd take more blame than me (especially w parama screaming for your death) in the first place. It's a relatively low risk play that worst case sacrifices one scum pair for one town pair, which in this game state is pretty +EV for scum. Would I ALWAYS have done it as scum? No, but that's certainly an idea that would have occurred to scum!me given that pair as town.

Like, the only way it's a bad risk for scum!me to take is if I'm with pie, which is again an utterly idiotic read if the game state.

[pieguyn]

Pie, are you around~~~?

funny, I just now got here. \o

[Dunnstral]

pie-parama-dunn could be reasonable?

also with leaving i meant getting lynched.

Scout


scout


scout

How come I'm suddenly in your scumpool? My plan involving your death shouldn't be bad to you.

Also, how does that scumteam work out? If pie and parama are scum HOW AM I SCUM TOO? and not your pair? Hello???

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Btw I'm gonna be

V/LA from tomorrow 12/22 to Monday 12/26

for Christmas stuff.

I'll try to check in here and there but if lynch not gonna happen today then I possibly won't be around for deadline.

[Dunnstral]

No Dunn, I'm fine with giving your position credence upon knowing you're town (and I think you're probably town already, so shruggles), but I don't think you can command the position of leadership you seem to expect prior to that being proven even if you are town, which is what your plan entails.

So you think I'm town but still think our death is right here? I don't really agree, wish we could have talked about that instead of strong arming it


Though forget about that, right now I want to talk about my plan in the case that I do get proven as town while I'm still alive