New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Human Sequencer]

Great, smith.

As an additional challenge, let's put a 3-name limit on said configuration, a 400-word limit on why they're scum together (spoilered/linked quotes not included), and a 0-word limit on how to play mafia.

this is a hilarious post even if i don't agree with where it comes from

arthur today looks like a wolf in sheep's clothing. i feel like he's intentionally towning it up and buttering people up and it feels disingenuous to me.

[Human Sequencer]

like its a pretty damn stark contrast to his old 'i do wat i want lol' playstyle we got pre-intermission. i get the feeling he's putting the front on now that he's being read more intently.

[Dunnstral]

Hey hs, what do you think of this:

Spoiler: 4620

Best lynch for today is HS/Parama. I said before either of them could be scum but it was probably HS, well my view has shifted. I think it's more likely to be Parama. Look at this play today compared to the first day. First day he was gung-ho about lynching a town pair. Today he's.... doing nothing? Even though pressure is forming on them they're not really responding and it doesn't seem like they're trying to figure things out. Keep note of this, because I'm going to bring it up again later

If we lynch the pair today and HS is scum after all, I'd put the lynch order at something like:

HS/Parama

---> Jester/MDS
If jester/mds flips town, I'd believe kagami as scum I wouldn't want to kill kagami before jester/mds

Jester/MDS ---> Kagami/me

If Jester/MDS flips scum from there instead, I would evaluate things again from that position



If Parama flips scum (and here's where most of what I've been talking about comes into play):

HS/Parama

---> SAD/Scout

Now here me out on this one. I've been toying around with the idea of a bus situation - now, this doesn't tell me

which

of the two are scum. Though I very much doubt they're both scum (which pie/kagami seem to think might be likely)

Here is why the order we kill people is important:

If Scout flips scum, I'd very much reconsider my read on mhsmith/pieguy pair. For obvious reasons, past interactions, what he's pushing today, etc.
I'd reevaluate the game from there.

If SAD flips scum (with Scout town) I'd be inclined to vote mhsmith/pieguy and that's probably game.

I know want this pair to be the pair that everyone suicides for that doesn't die. I don't. There's evidence to back this up:

-IC pair was killed. While this is a weak link, it suggests that scum were happy with the current state of affairs. If scum were all under heavy fire they'd likely wifom it and let cerb fall under suspicion
-Parama isn't doing anything. They're trying to look like they're doing something, but honestly it looks to me as if they've accepted their death. Possibly because it's all part of a bus.
-Scout doesn't deserve to be townread for... whatever he is for. Feels like whenever people talk about scout it's "Oh, dunn is scummy for pushing this and ignoring this other thing. JUST LIKE SCOUT DID BUT HE'S GENUINE ABOUT IT"
-SAD... well, scum can have good games. I've never played with him before so it would be folly to assume this is outside of his scum game.
-if either of these

fine gentlemen

are scum they're hoping to be SET on a parama scum flip and taking it to the end.

So to recap:

HS/Parama

---> SAD/Scout
If scout is scum

HS/Parama

--->

SAD/Scout

---> Jester/MDS (Probably, would think about it)

If SAD is scum

HS/Parama

--->

SAD/Scout

---> mhsmith/pieguy

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Take a look at the following quote:

Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.

The point is, at a meaningful leverage point, you doubtcast it and unvoted, cutting the legs out of its potential momentum. This suggests, to me, that your alignment is likely tied in with that pair's, since if all three wagons were town, then scum!you doesn't really have much incentive to bail on the wagon, while if the jester/mds pair had a wolf in it, then scum!you has a great incentive to seize on "that's not a slip" to try and derail the wagon and change the conversation in a way that isn't really all that likely to grab a large amount of attention. You can nitpick at it, but it's absolutely true that if jester-mds was a scum wagon you derailed it at an fairly important point in time, and "dunn drops a distancing vote and then bails when it actually gathers some momentum" is clearly a plausible explanation for what happened.

The way mhsmith tries to tie me in with jester looks

off

here. Though it would be a bizarre state where he's pushing his own scum buddy while town pushes someone else so I'm not quite sold on this

Still, though:

HS/Parama

---> mhsmith/pieguy ---> Jester/MDS
Not sure beyond this. Would rethink. Might be Kagami in this scenario




Anyway:

@scout If you're town I'll definitely go after mhsmith/pie next. Order really is important. I can't lynch mhsmith/pie while doubting your slot.

@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.
Second:

um, what?

I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.

I'm talking about these posts around this time period:

SAD/Jester/Parama would mean that the scum team has been going for a mass-distancing approach the entire game, probably with the goal of getting SAD to endgame.

it's what the scum team the last game did, so I wouldn't rule it out, but... ugh.

Which actually came around 10 minutes after I said something eerily similar in my pt (though it was your pair instead of jester)

[mhsmith0]

Need to think about this and reread. Weekend is crazy so far.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: jester-mds

Thought they were L-1 or 2

holy crap kill this with fire

okay yeah
calling it now: MDS/Jester T/T 100%
SAD + Kagami + smith I guess?

misreading the chain of events, smith. kagami jumped off the wagon 'cause she thought it was near a lynch, then hopped right back on when she realized it wasn't. you're misreading.

also i don't know what spewing means in this context

Parama, can you talk about what was obvscum about this? I'm looking back at this and I don't really see what merited the "holy crap kill this with fire" treatment.

[MiniDeathStar]

MDS picking up my reality nomenclature on top of my black hole phrase.
Stealin' yo gurl jester~

That was your invention? Didn't realise. I kept using dimension and universe before, figured I'd add some variety. The black hole phrase on the other hand is just super neat.

You know, I do swing both ways...

In a reality where they're happy sitting back and waiting for one of us to get lynched...

That would never have happened. Most of the focus was on our wagon and Shadow's, with both you and Parama voting Shadow. At the very least it needed a catalyst scum vote from a less conspicuous pair. In a universe with scum!Dunn, scum!Smith and scum!Jester, there's literally nothing that stopped universally townread Dunn from pushing *that* wagon instead of wasting time distancing from Smith. Like, all he needed to do is find a way to townread Shadow (not that difficult), and find a way to scumread you (also not super difficult). Even if he failed and Shadow was lynched, he would look *very* good, and you would look *very* bad. Especially late in the day when Parama already had some doubts wrt Shadow, and HS trusted Parama with her firstborn, it would have been a bloody gamewinning manoeuvre.

On the other hand, there's no way that Shadow *wasn't* pushed by at least one scum. There were HS, Parama, and you as the main proponents. Smith was coasting a little bit before switching his attention to pie. Scummy for sure, but hardly impactful. In a world where HS, Parama and you were all town voting Shadow, that wagon would've really taken off with a couple scum votes.

Instead, in your world the scum were 1) not voting (Jester), 2) self-voting (me), 3) self-voting (Smith), 4) bussing (Dunn).

I find that incredibly unlikely.

The much likelier explanation is that Shadow's wagon was already saturated with scum votes and didn't have much natural momentum, which perfectly explains why both you and Parama were yelling on top of your lungs to lynch Shadow, and why my wagon was constantly shifting as the other scum attemped a different strategy instead of exposing themselves by also voting Shadow.

So no. I just don't believe you can both be town. It doesn't check out.

[MiniDeathStar]

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Arthur, Parama, Smith. Reasonably likely given Arthur/Parama crossbussing strategy while neither of them really gave Smith any attention.

Arthur, Jester, Smith. Also reasonably likely. Arthur is trying to get Parama lynched while distancing from Jester by proxy, meanwhile Smith is just looking to pile up as much towncredit as

humanely

robotically possible.

Arthur, Inspector, [anybody else]. A very greedy strategy where the scum pair ruthlessly bus (Parama or Smith) and try their damnedest to reach endgame. Much less likely but totally possible.

Of course there's also Parama, Jester, Smith, which probably is the most likely scenario, so your plan does have some merit. I just don't trust Arthur at all atm.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also I'm 90% certain that Jester is town.

[Dunnstral]

Also I'm 90% certain that Jester is town.

So am I. I've been saying I'd want Your pair to be the one we play around as t-t if my pair suicides (Kagami still thinks sad-scout but I'm not convinced on that)

Maybe not 90%, but it's the best choice for me if we were to suicide right now

[Dunnstral]

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Arthur, Parama, Smith. Reasonably likely given Arthur/Parama crossbussing strategy while neither of them really gave Smith any attention.

Arthur, Jester, Smith. Also reasonably likely. Arthur is trying to get Parama lynched while distancing from Jester by proxy, meanwhile Smith is just looking to pile up as much towncredit as

humanely

robotically possible.

Arthur, Inspector, [anybody else]. A very greedy strategy where the scum pair ruthlessly bus (Parama or Smith) and try their damnedest to reach endgame. Much less likely but totally possible.

Of course there's also Parama, Jester, Smith, which probably is the most likely scenario, so your plan does have some merit. I just don't trust Arthur at all atm.

Uh, is that what you think? Take a look at this again:

Spoiler:

Best lynch for today is HS/Parama. I said before either of them could be scum but it was probably HS, well my view has shifted. I think it's more likely to be Parama. Look at this play today compared to the first day. First day he was gung-ho about lynching a town pair. Today he's.... doing nothing? Even though pressure is forming on them they're not really responding and it doesn't seem like they're trying to figure things out. Keep note of this, because I'm going to bring it up again later

If we lynch the pair today and HS is scum after all, I'd put the lynch order at something like:

HS/Parama

---> Jester/MDS
If jester/mds flips town, I'd believe kagami as scum I wouldn't want to kill kagami before jester/mds

Jester/MDS ---> Kagami/me

If Jester/MDS flips scum from there instead, I would evaluate things again from that position



If Parama flips scum (and here's where most of what I've been talking about comes into play):

HS/Parama

---> SAD/Scout

Now here me out on this one. I've been toying around with the idea of a bus situation - now, this doesn't tell me

which

of the two are scum. Though I very much doubt they're both scum (which pie/kagami seem to think might be likely)

Here is why the order we kill people is important:

If Scout flips scum, I'd very much reconsider my read on mhsmith/pieguy pair. For obvious reasons, past interactions, what he's pushing today, etc.
I'd reevaluate the game from there.

If SAD flips scum (with Scout town) I'd be inclined to vote mhsmith/pieguy and that's probably game.

I know want this pair to be the pair that everyone suicides for that doesn't die. I don't. There's evidence to back this up:

-IC pair was killed. While this is a weak link, it suggests that scum were happy with the current state of affairs. If scum were all under heavy fire they'd likely wifom it and let cerb fall under suspicion
-Parama isn't doing anything. They're trying to look like they're doing something, but honestly it looks to me as if they've accepted their death. Possibly because it's all part of a bus.
-Scout doesn't deserve to be townread for... whatever he is for. Feels like whenever people talk about scout it's "Oh, dunn is scummy for pushing this and ignoring this other thing. JUST LIKE SCOUT DID BUT HE'S GENUINE ABOUT IT"
-SAD... well, scum can have good games. I've never played with him before so it would be folly to assume this is outside of his scum game.
-if either of these

fine gentlemen

are scum they're hoping to be SET on a parama scum flip and taking it to the end.

So to recap:

HS/Parama

---> SAD/Scout
If scout is scum

HS/Parama

--->

SAD/Scout

---> Jester/MDS (Probably, would think about it)

If SAD is scum

HS/Parama

--->

SAD/Scout

---> mhsmith/pieguy

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Take a look at the following quote:

Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.

The point is, at a meaningful leverage point, you doubtcast it and unvoted, cutting the legs out of its potential momentum. This suggests, to me, that your alignment is likely tied in with that pair's, since if all three wagons were town, then scum!you doesn't really have much incentive to bail on the wagon, while if the jester/mds pair had a wolf in it, then scum!you has a great incentive to seize on "that's not a slip" to try and derail the wagon and change the conversation in a way that isn't really all that likely to grab a large amount of attention. You can nitpick at it, but it's absolutely true that if jester-mds was a scum wagon you derailed it at an fairly important point in time, and "dunn drops a distancing vote and then bails when it actually gathers some momentum" is clearly a plausible explanation for what happened.

The way mhsmith tries to tie me in with jester looks

off

here. Though it would be a bizarre state where he's pushing his own scum buddy while town pushes someone else so I'm not quite sold on this

Still, though:

HS/Parama

---> mhsmith/pieguy ---> Jester/MDS
Not sure beyond this. Would rethink. Might be Kagami in this scenario




Anyway:

@scout If you're town I'll definitely go after mhsmith/pie next. Order really is important. I can't lynch mhsmith/pie while doubting your slot.

@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.
Second:

um, what?

I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.

I'm talking about these posts around this time period:

SAD/Jester/Parama would mean that the scum team has been going for a mass-distancing approach the entire game, probably with the goal of getting SAD to endgame.

it's what the scum team the last game did, so I wouldn't rule it out, but... ugh.

Which actually came around 10 minutes after I said something eerily similar in my pt (though it was your pair instead of jester)

Those are pretty much the same pairs I'm trying to lynch and yet there was pushback from you when I came out with that

[Dunnstral]

Did Sad even respond to my post?

And scout got defensive for ~reasons~

[Dunnstral]

oh right, I was namedropping him!

[MiniDeathStar]

Well, yes, because this time I based them on you being town with Kagami. I'm still not totally convinced that is the case.

[Dunnstral]

So do you think I'm scum or?

Kagami is setting up to suicide, do you still think she can be scum? She'd look pretty bad if she backed out.

[Dunnstral]

And we probably will suicide, by the way, and assuming we flip town, are you able to lynch pie pair, parama pair, pcout pair (in no specific order) ?

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, I'm just paranoid. I trust pie and she made a compelling argument for you being scum. I'm not saying that's the case, but I have some doubts at the back of my mind.

Yes, if you're town, I'm content with following through that.

[Dunnstral]

Pie, are you around~~~?

Pie, are you around~~~?

funny, I just now got here. \o

Don't leave me hanging girls.

[Dunnstral]

Yes, if you're town, I'm content with following through that.

But can you?

Are you capable of lynching three pairs who strongly believe their partners to be town (lol) days after I'm dead? People won't even listen to me while I'm alive.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think I'm capable of that, yes.

But LYLO makes me pretty nervous regardless. D:

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't we at least wait until Jester is replaced? I want to be totally sure.

[Dunnstral]

Alright. So now I need everyone to agree to lynch everyone but jester-MDS as the condition for Kagami and I leaving the dance and flipping town

[Dunnstral]

Can't we at least wait until Jester is replaced? I want to be totally sure.

Not exactly in a rush

But really it needs to be talked about so people can't just say "I never agreed to that!"

[MiniDeathStar]

I expect Parama, inspector, Smith and Arthur to disagree.

[inspectorscout]

So you think the posts you quoted there indicate I'm scum?

no, those indicate the namedropping

ok. And you think the namedropping indicates scum so you're kind of saying those posts are your argument for me being scum?

I said that it's odd and potentially scummy, yes.

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, now that I think about it, I really want Parama or Arthur flip first before you pull off that suicide stunt. I trust Jester's alignment but I do want that extra bit of reassurance that comes with a scum flip.

[inspectorscout]

Pedit: contrary, i mostly read on tone

this is also hilarious given our back and forth wrt kagami. I get kind of nervous that this is just bad posting that's pocketing me by how bad it is, but I just feel like at some point, especially with day chat, if he was scum he probably would have had SOMETHING seemingly useful to say instead of just "nope nope how dare you ask for me to explain this thing that I don't want to explain"

I'm not pocketing you, and you are just painting my posts bad. I'm sorry that I don't build a whole fucking theory about something as simple as tone. I post my reasons after I asked about them. On those reasons, you ask me SPECIFICALLY about tone, and even after I told you that I don't build a theory around it, you call me bad town for it and keep pushing that I should produce some theory around it, one that I don't have.
Then you suddenly say that you have been flip flopping your read on me.

???