New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Parama]

I think the least likely scenario is that Arthur and Parama are town together. I see no reason for scum not to merrily wagon one of them, then the other. It would be a literal goldmine. This is why I want to lynch Parama, then potentially Arthur.

i also agree with this 100%, i'd be floored if our pairs were both T/T, game's really already lost if that's the case :s

[Parama]

for the record: mds/jester is the goto endgame pair if kagami & arthur are both scum and pie/smith is the goto endgame pair if dunn is scum. can we all agree on this?

i honestly don't think there's any possible scumteam where one of these isn't true

[Parama]

Wait if Parama flips scum -> lynch Jester/MDS (scum flip) -> Dunn/Kagami flips town we're in lylo -> lynch mhsmith (scum flip) -> Win ???

again, any plan where you survive to endgame is a town loss, but nice try pal

[Parama]

O, dunn-smith.

Why do you think dunn is scum with smith?

you see it too right? it doesn't make sense. why doesn't it make sense?

there's just like
one piece that fits so perfectly

[Parama]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

If we're town, then scout is townreading us for what reason?

Smith spent a lot of today positioning himself for kagami-scum/kagami-discrediting, but did so in an interaction that would make scout town as well.

So that makes SAD the likely scummo in that pair, and I don't really see any compelling connection between SAD and smith/pie or jester/MDS.

not saying scout is scum, i really doubt it at this point

and it's not really about interactions here
i'd be surprised if it was sad + people from those pairs too tbh, it doesn't really make a lot of sense
which is why i think there's scum in your pair, and not in both those pairs
but at the same time letting that plan go unchallenged in the unlikely scenario it comes true is dangerous

[Kagami]

I have no idea what that prior post means, but I don't think dunn-smith is likely.

[Parama]

Ps in a world in which HS-parama is town-town, why in the world does scum!me not just hammer when I had the chance? Like, obviously it would look bad, but keeping her alive with the chance to town tell or game solve seems super risky, compared to pushing along a LYLO state where town would need to hit 3/3 lynches to win. Obviously this ignores a me/pie team, but even ignoring me knowing it's false that strikes me as a transparently ridiculous notion. I guess I could theoretically be scum with a scum-scum pair, but even there it seems like scum!me should always hammer in that spot instead of questioning pie in PT on why she made the l-1 vote.

1. doesn't take into consideration that your pair is town/town alongside ours (which, if dunn is scum, is exceedingly likely)
2. wifom anyways tbh. what if you had hammered as scum? you'd be powerlynched when you were in a good situation to last to endgame. i think your pair is the most widely townread atm and was definitely the most widely townread at that point before kagami suddenly decided to start playing

[Parama]

I have no idea what that prior post means, but I don't think dunn-smith is likely.

the missing piece is that sad is scum lol

his proposed configuration doesn't make sense.
it doesn't make sense because he's excluding himself from the possibility pool.
put him back in the pool and there are suddenly options that do make sense.
almost like he's, y'know, scum

[Parama]

like legit at this point even aside from all the scummy crap he's spouted there's just no logical configuration where both my pair and his pair are town/town and since HS is town then i'm 100% there's scum in his pair

[Parama]

pie-parama-dunn could be reasonable?

also with leaving i meant getting lynched.

Scout


scout


scout

How come I'm suddenly in your scumpool? My plan involving your death shouldn't be bad to you.

Also, how does that scumteam work out? If pie and parama are scum HOW AM I SCUM TOO? and not your pair? Hello???

wow this is defensive as heck too

[Parama]

Hi smith, how about you produce a reasonably likely configuration of scum from {sad, scout, jester, MDS, parama, HS}, and explain why it's likely?

That would be a great way of demonstrating your towniness.

Am working on it, I will let you know if/when I feel like I have a good idea. Don't really feel like vomiting up a guess just for the sake of vomiting up a guess.

so you haven't been thinking about it at all, is what you're saying? despite it being the hottest topic in the thread for the past few days?

[Parama]

@Parama: If SAD is just being an arrogant jerk instead of a wolf, what does the game board look like to you?

if sad flips town (and scout does too, which i'd expect to happen) then gg we're boned because scum are gonna push a powerlynch on my pair

i also think this is incredibly unlikely

ftr if you think my scumread on sad is simply based on him being arrogant then L O L

[Parama]

Parama, can you talk about what was obvscum about this? I'm looking back at this and I don't really see what merited the "holy crap kill this with fire" treatment.

you literally quoted the post where i explained it

[Parama]

Of course there's also Parama, Jester, Smith,

which probably is the most likely scenario

, so your plan does have some merit. I just don't trust Arthur at all atm.

Also

I'm 90% certain

that Jester is town.

err

[Parama]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

[Parama]

Did Sad even respond to my post?

And scout got defensive for ~reasons~

pot kettle black

[pieguyn]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

[Parama]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

8|

[MiniDeathStar]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

You're taking it out of context. It was a hypothetical where Dunn and Kagami are both town and you're scum *instead* of Arthur. Like, as much as I think Jester is town, you flipping scum and Kagami flipping town means either a Parama/Arthur crossbus, inspector/Arthur scum/scum, or Smith/Jester scumteam. Which of the 3 do you think is more likely?

for the record: mds/jester is the goto endgame pair if kagami & arthur are both scum and pie/smith is the goto endgame pair if dunn is scum. can we all agree on this?

i honestly don't think there's any possible scumteam where one of these isn't true

I agree with this btw.

[MiniDeathStar]

Points in favour of Jester:

- His read progression on Gamma felt really genuine.
- He was townreading Shadow from the get-go and didn't want to vote him even when he was in serious danger. He only changed his mind when Shadow started making cameo appearances as soon as his wagon picked up again. I think that's also a very town reaction to it.
- He had a similar Smith read progression to me, independently of me. He thought he was scum at first, then gradually changed his mind.
- He's not playing his usual scum game where he'd butter up to the people who know him well and ruthlessly bus his partners. He kept testing me over and over and thought I was scum at some point.

Points against Jester:

- He was pretty scummy at the beginning.
- Parama was defending our pair from really early on and continued doing so, which was a relatively unpopular opinion. Could be a WIFOM/pocketing strategy, but if Parama flips scum, that's honestly pretty damning.
- Nahdia scumread him all game.
- Pie scumread him all game (and I think she's town).
- I'm prone to defending him and could be somewhat biased.


Obviously column A outweighs column B, but I can't be totally 100% certain.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, and obviously can't ignore that Vedith townread him, too, and he's pretty good at reading him tonally.

[Parama]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

You're taking it out of context. It was a hypothetical where Dunn and Kagami are both town and you're scum *instead* of Arthur. Like, as much as I think Jester is town, you flipping scum and Kagami flipping town means either a Parama/Arthur crossbus, inspector/Arthur scum/scum, or Smith/Jester scumteam. Which of the 3 do you think is more likely?

okay fair enough

and uhh
you're asking me about a scenario that assumes i'm flipping scum
this is a futile question to ask me in particular

[MiniDeathStar]

It was a rhetorical question. I just wanted to show you my thought pattern.

[Kagami]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

I believe we're still in agreement, but I'm still thinking through things. There's also a good argument for waiting for a Jester replacement if that's going to happen.

[Kagami]

MDS, what all does jester say about smith prior to Dec 7?