New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

PS pie-dunn probably v/w fwiw

What happened to this read?

[MiniDeathStar]

Fuck me it's MDS/Dunn/mhsmith isn't it.

I thought I made it perfectly clear there's no way you're town with Parama. I also don't see Dunn being scum with Smith so your config makes no sense. FYPOV it should be either Parama/Jester/Smith or Parama/Jester/Dunn.

The_Jester has agreed to come back.

Omg yesssss <3

Most likely non-dunn group (and I'm inclined to think dunn town if for no reason other than his insistence that he gets to decide something if I suicide) remains Smith-Jester-Parama to my mind.

This is why I want to lynch Arthur and see if he's town. Because if he is, then I'll agree with this config and probably suggest to keep Dunn as the endgame town.

But if Arthur is scum, I think Jester should be the endgame town. Also Arthur and Inspector have the potential of being scum together, and I don't townread Inspector nearly as much as I townread Human.

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

Why are you against lynching Arthur? Do you really townread that pair that much that you'd suicide over it? For a while I thought you were Dunn's scum girlfriend, but I think I've changed my mind on that and I don't think Dunn is scum, so I'd be willing to let you and him carry us to endgame, especially if Arthur and Inspector are both town.

But atm I just don't see any scenario where I'd let Arthur endgame us. Perhaps only if we lynched Parama first and she flipped scum.

Then he reread smith and decided he was scummo #3 is 2 hours. I guess that's not impossible, and fits with having come to a t-t conclusion on HS-parama about 1 hour in. Kind of surprising he wouldn't mention his smith conclusion.

Well he said he liked him more (as town). That happened around the time he reaction tested me with saying I townslipped and Smith questioned him about it, and then Smith and Jester were commenting on Gamma and Shadow and appeared to agree with each other.

[MiniDeathStar]

The alternative is to lynch Smith and if he's scum, we keep Dunn alive because they have low chance of being scum together. The problem with that is that I like having pie around

and also I just had a dream where Smith and I were arrested for speeding by mistake and I was super pissed at him but he handled it awesomely. And yes he was wearing that beak mask in it. Don't ask.

[Dunnstral]

^ From your points of view Smith scum should probably = me town, but what about kagami? We're kind of a set here


Not that I necessarily disagree

[Dunnstral]

So refresh me: do you actually think smith is scum, or is it just dunn vs smith

[inspectorscout]

I've bounced back and forth on you, generally on the town side but with substantial reservations and suspicions,

Dunn, can you talk about SAD/scout a bit more? In particular, It seems like you think scout is potential scum there; what in particular makes you think scum instead of just lazy/bad town?

?

[MiniDeathStar]

^ From your points of view Smith scum should probably = me town, but what about kagami? We're kind of a set here

You know, for most of the game I thought Kagami was the scum, but having actually talked to her for a bit and listened to her exchange with pie, I've reconsidered my read. She's acting literally in the opposite way than I'd expect scum!her to act. I know it could be a trick, but if it is, I've totally fallen for it.

So refresh me: do you actually think smith is scum, or is it just dunn vs smith

He's a total enigma to me atm, but the thing I'm most sure about is that you two are not scum together, so one being scum means the other is town. I don't know if you could be town together, but if you are, that means a team of Parama, Arthur, Jester/Kagami. Which again means we have to lynch Arthur then Parama (or vice-versa) and take it from there.

Tl;dr if we lynch Smith now and he flips town instead of scum we're kind of stuck.

But like, the only way Arthur and Parama are town together has either {pie + Smith doublescum with Kagami/Jester}, or {pie/Smith + Kagami + Jester} with Jester as the scapegoat. That or some combination involving you scum with smith, or girls-only scumteam, which is super unlikely.

However Arthur and Parama can also be scum together.

Which is why we should be lynching amongst them atm and go on from there.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

Do *you* see a scenario where Arthur and Parama are both town? What do you think about the game if HS/Parama are town? And what about Arthur/Inspector?

[pieguyn]

Why are you against lynching Arthur? Do you really townread that pair that much that you'd suicide over it?

I'm aware this wasn't directed to me, but if I proceed squarely based off of reads, they're the most town pair left in the game.

also, lynching them first doesn't work at all because of the distinct possibility that we're in the Jester/Parama universe with Dunn as the +1, with us having no way whatsoever of telling wither Dunn or mhsmith is the +1.

anyway, to answer the questions in your last posts... SAD and Parama both being town doesn't work since Dunn and mhsmith cannot both be scum. SAD being town means we're in the universe in the last paragraph (which is why lynching him right now is bad), Parama being town probably means we're in the SAD/Jester/Dunn universe if I go off of reads but could mean just about anything.

tbh, I'm also tossing around the possibility that you're scum in my head, which would imply that the team is probably you/Parama/mhsmith and that you three wish to stop the plan in its current iteration from going through (because that means that SAD/scout, a town pair, wins) I'm not sure to what extent I buy the momentum shift onto SAD from you three - I do consider mhsmith part of this even though he's not doing it directly because I think the way he's attempting to berate Kagami for wanting to "suicide" as part of a plan because it's "suicide" and thus "game throwing" defies all reason, and he has seemed to express that he's suspicious of that pair in the most recent pages.

[pieguyn]

thing is that if you consider what configurations might be in the game after a Dunn/Kagami town flip, there aren't actually all that many. Parama, for one, is a safe lynch because SAD/{Jester, MDS}/mhsmith isn't particularly likely to exist. from there, I honestly just don't think the crossbus universe is what is going on here, so it'd be Jester/Parama/mhsmith - it could be but just given my reads and what's been going on in this game in general, they fit together so well.

I actually don't entirely disagree with Dunn's 4957 and it makes me pretty ok with my pair not being anywhere near endgame if he flips town, btw.

[MiniDeathStar]

also, lynching them first doesn't work at all because of the distinct possibility that we're in the Jester/Parama universe with Dunn as the +1, with us having no way whatsoever of telling wither Dunn or mhsmith is the +1.

anyway, to answer the questions in your last posts... SAD and Parama both being town doesn't work since Dunn and mhsmith cannot both be scum. SAD being town means we're in the universe in the last paragraph (which is why lynching him right now is bad), Parama being town probably means we're in the SAD/Jester/Dunn universe if I go off of reads but could mean just about anything.

Okay. That seems to imply that Jester is scum no matter what while the others are some kind of variable. Therefore I should be the first to go.

Follow up question: what if Jester is actually town? Is there a way of telling who is scum between Dunn and Smith in that case?

[pieguyn]

there might be scenarios where Jester/you are town, which would mean we probably are in the crossbus universe, but the thing is if we get a Dunn scum flip there's a chance we wouldn't even need to worry about it. and no, I don't really think there's a high-confidence way to tell who the final scum would be out of Dunn/mhsmith, but I could be wrong.

[pieguyn]

crossbus universe after a Dunn town flip would be one of SAD/Jester/Parama or SAD/Parama/mhsmith. I largely think the former isn't the universe we're in, but I am not 100% on the latter.

[Human Sequencer]

Parama/MDS/Dunn??
Parama/MDS/mhsmith??

I townread literally everybody arthur wants to lynch. Lynch this.

HOLD THE PHONE ACTUALLY

I 100% rescind my townread on smith. Check this out.

Spoiler: Smith a few months ago, newbie 1714

Also, I have to say this was my best wolfing effort ever BY FAR. Usually I'm much worse than this. And while there were some down spots, I really, truly did have fun.

I really did enjoy playing with you all, and I hope you had fun as well.

I know this is super old news to most of you but my townread on smith relied on his personality just not working with the play he'd have to pull off here in a scum slot.
Now I'm not so sure. This was the asterisk, I always needed to check this out but just never got around to it.
After seeing his play in 1714 compared to his play here, he's no longer a townread.

Jester/mds is my preferred endgame pair.

[pieguyn]

HS, we went from being so well-synced to our reads being the complete opposite of each other's.

if you try to throw out positionality and assess based on play only, why do you town read Jester and why do you town read Parama?

[Human Sequencer]

i have barely read positionally at all in fact earlier i was complaining to parama in pt earlier about how the game of mafia everybody else seems to be playing is so different from the game of mafia i'm trying to play wrt chain lynching and positioning and the whole heck

i have had two hours of sleep in the last ~50 hours so i'll see if i can get around to some actual proper legitimate backed up reads later but don't count on it

also its not really worth waiting for either because my reads this day phase are changing like the wind, but i'll be as logical as possible because FUCK I REALLY WANT TO WIN THIS GAME EGH

its also worth noting actually trying to write out my reads will probably change again because i'll come across something that changes my mind

at this point i'm fairly confident i might be able to read the scum if i really give it my all but fuck the problem is is it really worth it to invest that time (THATS A LOT OF TIME) when i'll probably just be lynched and have my reads dismissed anyway next to people like dunn?

a big problem i see is that everybody is being a town leader and everybody is setting up their own win phases that might definitely win for them but there are always some people who are notably against it, and because everybody thinks their plan is better ofc they're not going to follow another persons' thingy

which is partly why i think logic is CRUCIAL right now and we need to get some things established as ABSOLUTE GENERALLY HELD FACT as a base for people to work off of instead of one bajillion lines of speculation half of which falls apart is one little assumption is incorrect

egh

[Human Sequencer]

my reads right now:
i have none

watch this space

[Human Sequencer]

am gonna read this game like i just replaced int hat usually seems to work pretty well

hello i am gorilla recneuqeS, i just replaced in to HS hooo boy this is a long game i'll probably go digging through some isos sometime over the next few days! i'll keep you posted as i go!

[pieguyn]

a big problem i see is that everybody is being a town leader and everybody is setting up their own win phases that might definitely win for them but there are always some people who are notably against it, and because everybody thinks their plan is better ofc they're not going to follow another persons' thingy

which is partly why i think logic is CRUCIAL right now and we need to get some things established as ABSOLUTE GENERALLY HELD FACT as a base for people to work off of instead of one bajillion lines of speculation half of which falls apart is one little assumption is incorrect

Kagami's and my strategy is to set up a completely objective plan, where you don't need to trust our alignments or reads besides assumptions that most people generally hold as true.

our current plan is to make their pair dead, and then from there, focus on the following... do you agree that Dunn being scum makes mhsmith almost guaranteed to be town, given his treatment of my pair all game and his disingenuous-sounding reads on both members of my pair today? if their pair flips town, what would you think about the game?

[Human Sequencer]

im so sorry pie i can't engage with that post atm i am now on a MISSION and refuse to give in, get back to me when i'm all updated but i really don't buy into those conditional 'if x is y then z is bbq' reads atm because my head has been out of the game for so long which is why i'm on the MISSION to get some rereads going then get back to me

[pieguyn]

I don't mean for you to engage it right now, just keep it in mind and once you look at Dunn's posts about my pair this game day you should hopefully be able to see what I'm talking about.

[pieguyn]

it's also worth noting whenever you get around to it that unlike me/Kagami's plan, Dunn's plan was a completely subjective plan that relied entirely on people trusting him and that's a part of where my scum read is from - given Kagami and I coalescing on a plan that would be impossible to win against, or attempt to argue against (due to it being an objective plan), scum-him has no real option but to throw shade on my slot, propose an alternate plan with a bunch of contingencies to hopefully confuse people and persuade them to his side over ours on a trust basis, and hope no one actually thinks about it hard enough to realize what he's doing. it makes even less sense that he's been as insistent about this as he has been when he's been suspicious about Kagami as he has been all game and her plan specifically calls for their death first, whereas his plan never considers it unless you flip scum (lol) or "reevaluate at MYLO".

[Human Sequencer]

MDS: The Post
39
I'm not so sure if this is entirely a joke or not, but it looks like MDS has no qualms leaving on Jester. If we can get MDS locked in as town, we can pretty well confirm Jester as town, because MDS can read Jester like a book and she clearly hasn't replaced out at this point.

278
MDS thinks Jester is town. Also scumreads Arthur next post.

888
This post is a bad post, but it's also a very town post.
MDS is an emotional player who is against conflict and negativity. She says in this post that she scumreads Shadow for pretty much being a jerk. In townMDS' mind, she can easily correlate 'Shadow is a dick' to 'Shadow is scum' based on a few dodgy logical leaps, and without much thought can just reflect that into the thread. scumMDS cannot do that. There is no way scumMDS can do those mental gymnastics because townMDS -knows- Shadow is town, and I don't buy for a second that MDS is pulling this stunt to be townread, simply because of how stupid her logic in this post is (no offense luv). This means that she isn't scum in two ways: she would be scumread for 'omg wat a bad vote lmao' which scumMDS is surely aware of (invalidating her motivation to do it for towncredit) and it's also so obscure and relies on somebody interpreting her personality in such an accurate and specific way that it wouldn't work on anybody and scumMDS -knows- that. There is no way this post would get past scumMDS' filter.

I could honestly stop here with how much that post bleeds town, but I'll proceed on my MDS iso. I'm posting this now to see how many others agree with this, it reads as pretty striking evidence to townMDS to me.

[Human Sequencer]

In fact I'm doing this as if I would be replacing in so tbh I'll just skip the rest of MDS because at this point I'd just write her off as conftown with that post, might come back to her later if people ask me about it.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

Okay, let me give you my perspective once again. You agreed that Parama and Arthur can't be town together. That means we have a near guaranteed flip of 1-2 scumbags if we sack both of them. From there we have several options depending on their flips:

Arthur

,

Parama

: This almost certainly means

Jester is town

, unless Arthur's plan has been to bus him for towncredit before mislynching Parama. Which is silly because he's pushing Parama over me, and HS was trusting him for the majority of the game.

Arthur

,

Parama

: This probably makes

Jester scum

, but you have a point that it'll be difficult to figure out whether Dunn or Smith is his partner. I'd say Dunn because he's been planning around our pair while Smith has been keeping us in the scumpile, but it could also have been distancing. Also I doubt Dunn's plan included him flipping scum. So like, idk. Good luck in that case!!

Arthur

,

Parama

: Crossbussing universe, which is what Dunn is predicting. In this case we'd be down to 1 scum *and* have 1 mislynch, so that's great odds. We can figure out the details of it later.

With a

Dunn suicide

, him flipping town relies on us being correct about Jester without knowing which of {Arthur, Parama} is town, if any. I mean, I can obviously keep interrogating Jester and HS can interrogate Parama (and you Smith), but I still think that approach is a lot riskier. Do you see where I'm coming from now?