New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

also, what do you make of mhsmith heavily avoiding giving any kind of solid opinion on Jester for pretty much the entire duration of the game?

(for context, his vote on Jester early D2 only came after I poked him really hard in the PT to do so.)

[Dunnstral]

why do you think it's likely? like, literally, run me through what posts give you the impression that it's a crossbus and why and I'll give you my opinion of it. I do a lot better with logic/reason than I do with just being told I'm wrong or that I should reassess my reads.

ok.

Look over parama's posts today, and compare them to when he was trying to get the town pair lynched. Today his posts are so tame in comparison. He only throws empty jabs at SAD and doesn't really bother with the rest of the game. I can think of a pretty good reason he'd want to do this: sad/scout has scum in it, and off his flip the scum team hopes to let sad/scout carry this one through for them.

Now, look at sad/scout. They're both tunneled on someone as well - not really actively engaged in most discussion. SAD's getting townread for popping in and making snarky remarks and scout's getting townread for "suspecting SAD" and "looking genuine"

I tried to point out that the ic kill lent some credence to this theory but I know you didn't like that.

also, what do you make of mhsmith heavily avoiding giving any kind of solid opinion on Jester for pretty much the entire duration of the game?

(for context, his vote on Jester early D2 only came after I poked him really hard in the PT to do so.)

I think you know what I think of mhsmith.

I'd say he's trying to avoid interacting with a pair to potentially confuse people. barring that it seemed early on he wanted yet another town pair to be lynched.

From my points of view, mhsmith has pushed on 4 town-town pairs.

[Dunnstral]

(for context, his vote on Jester early D2 only came after I poked him really hard in the PT to do so.)

He voted jester because you told him to?

Here's him unvoting:

By the way jester's last post was before 4 dead guys

MDS, has he been flaking out or was he discussing things overnight?

And? I could say the same thing about parama/sad (decent odds of a scum between them), and the same "why aren't you voting one of them" logic would apply, would it not?

I suppose you can make the case that there seems to be a stronger likelihood wrt pie v you (with a realistic outcome of kagami flipping red if you're town), although by the same logic, why aren't you voting for me/pie or kagami?

Ps I actually agree w the idea of jester being force replaced at this point
Am willing to UNVOTE: pending that resolution.

Also, I just realized he's kind of pushing the "a scum" thing between sad and parama

[Dunnstral]

I just don't see why you'd rather suicide

I wouldn't and won't. I'm just prepared for Kagami doing it.

Nobodies following my lynch path anyway and it gets tiring going on about it and nobody listening

^that also seems somewhat villagery by Dunn. Part of me thinks it's potential ATE with his neck potentially on the line but it still feels honest to me.

Well, mhsmith is preparing for me to flip town.

What do you think of this? Not necessarily just the posts I quoted but the ones by smith around that time as well

[pieguyn]

actually, your post made me recall a mhsmith/scout interaction that I don't think really looks like scum/scum. doesn't mean much because it means nothing in terms of SAD's alignment, but I'll pull it up later in this post. anyway, going to go paragraph-by-paragraph here...

what you pointed out about Parama is actually something I've been pointing out about their play since very early in the game. they were pretty much hyper-focused on pushing S_S, in a way much similar to what they're doing to SAD now, to the exclusion of almost everything else, and their reasoning for doing so (not just the "scum slip". all of their reasoning) was as shallow and empty as their reasoning for SAD is now. they did make passing comments about other people D1, but I don't exactly think this has changed about their play - you can see them poking e.g. you, and even though they aren't really doing anything to push it, they didn't do anything to push anything outside of S_S D1 either.

I think this is probably either their style, or a general point that makes them scum, but I'm not quite sure where the difference is that points to it being a bus. if I'm wrong in my assessment of this, I would like if you could point me to specific posts that look different to you.

about SAD, I don't really feel as though tunneling, by itself, is a scum tell - I did notice the same thing about his play at one point but in his case I think it is largely just his play style, so I don't read into it.

I don't read mhsmith's Jester interactions the same way you do, in no small part because he's been doing it the entire game. he has behaved oddly around Jester ever since about halfway through D1. for example, posts like 2324 read like he doesn't want to bus, but can't come up with any actual reason to call Jester town, so he just attempts to claim Jester is "improving" based on posts that weren't town at all. it's the kind of hedgy read you give when you want to avoid committing too hard to a read on your partner, and I don't think he was in that much danger at that point (it was about the point when he really started trying to generate content), so he had no reason to prioritize obfuscating interactions there. there's also that one of the more notable things he said about me when we had our back-and-forth earlier was that he said my Jester case was "OK, but not obvscum" and that I wasn't working hard enough to actually lynch him - why would his scum strategy here be to call attention to his own partner after a Jester town flip?

I'm pretty sure I've already said that I find mhsmith's recent posts about you suspect, and that this is a part of why I'd feel very comfortable making my own pair dead if you were to flip town.

anyway, about scout, I don't think 2320/2321 comes from scum-mhsmith talking about scum-scout. I think that when scum attempt to weakly meta dive people, they usually do it to generate a genuine-sounding defense of a town player, not to invent a reason to defend a partner (especially because all someone has to do is look at the game in question and they'd likely see that the meta assessment is bad and take issue with the read).

[Human Sequencer]

Dadadadadadadadadada

https://youtu.be/JaHvO3SJ2c4?t=1m14s

WE've got 3 days left from here: parama group isn't going to hit a lynch. Scout group isn't going to hit a lynch. My group is going to suicide at the end of the timer to stop scum from winning; vote smith pair if you think they're likelier scum than me

This is true. I don't like it. I don't want to replace out (reasons) and I also don't want Parama to replace out, I doubt that will do anything but kill the game.

Master FakeGod, I've enjoyed my time here, but I must request to leave

If we both flip town, powerlynch Arthur/scout tomorrow.
If Parama flips scum, still powerlynch Arthur/scout tomorrow.
Please stop analysing associations on players who haven't flipped yet. Use the information you have on hand to analyze the best lynch for the situation you're in right now, and then use the flips that lynch gives you to inform your decision the next day. Any time spent considering the next day's lynch is time wasted, unless it actually is the next day. Direct all of your energy to the lynch at hand. Don't overcomplicate it and don't let scum let you overcomplicate it.

I believe Jester/MDS is t/t. Jester believes MDS is t. MDS believes Jester is t.

Don't make the game easy for scum (like I did...). I'm sorry my play was so lackluster this game, and also sorry for everything else. Even if we flip t/t, I truly believe town can still win. Good luck!

I know literally everybody else has already caught on to this and I am a literal pants-on-head retard who only just got it today, but smith isn't unlikely to be scum.

[pieguyn]

er

[pieguyn]

I really wish you wouldn't have done that.

/sigh

[inspectorscout]

...HS, fuck you.

[Human Sequencer]

I do not consent!

[pieguyn]

you know how you can tell that I'm town here?

because I just tried to go to sleep, but I couldn't at all because I can't stop thinking about this game and what Parama is going to flip and I'm scared out of my fucking mind that if I fall asleep it'll be town and I'll wake up to the game being over and the scum team having been some nightmare like SAD/Kagami/Dunn, and then I'd inevitably blame myself for the loss and decide to quit the game for some amount of time.

. . . I guess SAD is a safe lynch if Parama flips town, but outside of that if that happens no one do anything stupid if/while I'm gone.

these thoughts brought to you by the deepest, darkest areas of my sleep-deprived-at-7AM mind.

[Human Sequencer]

is ok

we lose we lose, i tried my best. nothing horrible happens to us except i get to congratulate the scumteam for being gud

you're already on a hiatus, you can't double hiatus
go ahead, prove me wrong

[Parama]

ahh good christmas came early, I don't have to read this game anymore

but yeah follow what I said please, get sad then get kagami/dunn and then I'd say probably get smith next but don't speed lynch cause I'm not as sure but also it won't be my fault if you screw it up

[Parama]

mds/jester still feels like the most likely T/T pair also

[Parama]

but yeah sad needs some serious powerlynching, get that pair before anything else

I don't really have much more left worth saying tbh

[FakeGod]

Master FakeGod, I've enjoyed my time here, but I must request to leave

Human Sequencer, who was

Town

Gentleman

, has

left

in

second dance

.

Parama, who was

Mafia

Lady

, has

left

in

second dance

.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.9

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [0] -
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [0] -
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [0] -
Dunnstral - Kagami [0] -

Not Voting [8]

- The_Jester, MiniDeathStar, Ser Arthur Dayne, inspectorscout, mhsmith0, pieguyn, Dunnstral, Kagami

With 8 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2017-01-01 17:00:00)

[pieguyn]

oh, thank fucking god.

HS, I love you. I know you're seeing this as you ascend into the afterlife. <3

[Kagami]

Yay. Let's lynch piesmith.

[Kagami]

Not really,but maybe really. I'll have to go through parama again.

[pieguyn]

I'm honestly just glad that my scum-dar isn't completely terrible this game. I should have just kept calm and lynched Parama instead of freaking out and getting paranoid and entirely forgetting about reads due to the position we were in.

if there's one takeaway from this game, either way, that's probably it.

in other news, I'm taking your challenge. D1 mhsmith had no read on Parama and had minimal interactions with them, which were all softball. D2 I'm going through this and he *still* never declares any kind of read on Parama one way or the other whatsoever. there are a few firmer questions, but none of it results in any kind of read at any point. in my PT the closest he got to taking a stance was "it's possible Parama is scum but it isn't obvious one way or the other" and "scum is OK with a Parama lynch".

it occurred to me that he had done this with Jester but I did not even notice him doing it with Parama until I went back and looked.

[inspectorscout]

So

Lynch mhsmith/you?

[pieguyn]

he had a substantive comment of some kind about literally everyone besides Parama and Jester, both of whom he declared no firm read on but soft defended at various points throughout the game (except for one post D2 where now he's OK with them being dueling wagons), and maybe MDS and that's just because I don't remember OTOH what his read was after ISO'ing him.



I'm still really paranoid about Dunn, tbh, so I still want to think about it and I don't want you to just forget about it entirely if mhsmith flips town, but l o l if this is the exact team.

[inspectorscout]

I am also paranoid of dunn, but I'm not paranoid about mhsmith because he's a plain scumread.

Now that parama flipped scum, arthur and I might really be a T-T pair, but I doubt we can convince everyone of that. I hardly believe it myself.

[pieguyn]

I think Dunn/mhsmith/Parama is impossible ("yes, yes, let's hard bus both my partners counter to the wagon on the town/town pair"), and I think Dunn-scum would imply SAD/you-town.