New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: Scout interactions with parama first 1300 posts

But why do you want a partner to manipulate?

i'm scum, sup

Right. I forgot. Should I buss you now or...

Yeah I don't have good feelings about HS this game regardless

How about parama?

Yeah I don't have good feelings about HS this game regardless

How about parama?

I think parma is fine but they're paired with hs so death may be in their future

I tend to go after groups where I think both members are scum, though, which is why I like having some say in deciding who pairs with who (not like anyone would listen)

On one side i like their agressiveness but its a bit over the top sometimes.
= theyre town but slightly rude as well

I think thats a good idea, but im gonna bet on that not working (mainly because of pairs already made)

On one side i like their agressiveness but its a bit over the top sometimes.
= theyre town but slightly rude as well

if it helps i'm like this every game regardless of my alignment
i have very little patience but i'm also above outright insulting people for no good reason like shadow is doing
babying people never produces results though

Telling them you'll policy and WoTC them doesn't help often either imo...

And I know, I don't read people solely on agressiveness as I, too, will be at a point this game where I'm rude and I always have that, as well. It's just not always that much fun to play with.

Parama town
HS scumlean

Nahdia, can you give your thoughts on MDS?

Not a comprehensive look through at all. I just ctrl + f'd parama so I'm sure he talks to them at other times too but I don't see much suspicion or calling out here.

Spoiler: Same for SAD

end the setup speculation immediately, jesus christ

Yeah... no. mh is not dodging that garbage opening that quickly.

@SAD actually stop

Idgaf about setup speculation.

I DO give a fuck about people who started with setup speculation.

It really was not a hard setup to read, so anyone trying to make the setup more complicated or start discussing it has huge red flags.

Anyway I'm actually extremely happy with my partner choice.

Parama is reading town. Her interaction with shadow reads genuine and "passionate", which I largely associate to town. Though she's jumping in an abrasive way at things, but who the fuck am I to talk I have an obnoxious playstyle too.
HS is reading town also. Her playstyle largely resembles townie stream-of-consciousness posting. I'm a bit ~paranoid~ of her because if she's scum and can imitate townie thinking this strongly then she will be very hard to take down.
Kagami leaning town for her question to Shadow. I think scum would be much more content with just lurking in the back and letting Shadow getting the boot. And if they are both scum together then I don't think she would word it in such an off-handed way.
Cerb leaning town as I said. I think he has some good genuine posts like the reation to nadhia accepting his dance. He's logical and straightforward in his posts, seems like he truly believes what he's saying. His 295 to Shadow was also extremely townie.

@sadboy got any scumreads though lol

Mhsmith, Shadow, Dunn.
Kinda MDS and Vedith? (I'm really really torn on the way MDS is playing)

I want to see one of those first 3 not get a partner.

Admittedly sickofit has like 1 post, but since he's gentlemen I think he would be working harder to get a partner seeing as he could be left in the dust. Whereas take Vedith, who's like guaranteed a partner, she can post a 1 liner and then lurk the rest of pre-dance and coast hardcore af.

like literally though what's the benefit of intentionally letting one scum live just to try to get a 2-scum pairing the next day

why not just

kill the scum in pre-dance

Because if a scum pairs up with a largely townie read person people will be more hesitant to lynch the pairing?

Sooo many posts holy. Like 90% of those were just a mud slinging contest and I'm seriously not sitting through that bullshit every time I come to this thread to catch up.

Here's a quick tier list of where I'm at:

Nahdia
Parama, inspectorscout, Human Sequencer, Cerberus v666
Kagami, pieguyn, MariaR
Gamma Emerald, The_Jester
MiniDeathStar, Dunnstral, mhsmith0
Shadow_step, Vedith

Some notes:

- Need to ISO Jester and Gamma. I MIGHT (mighttttttttttt) be willing to ISO Vedith hundred fucking obnoxious posts.
- MDS's post 888 might be contender for worst single post in the whole thread.
- I like pieguyn right now literally for being logical and coherent in her posts. She could be scum and I would be happy to keep her for now because at least I enjoy reading her posts (as opposed to other people *cough*)
- Parama saying she was going to sleep and she didn't wanna come back to too many posts literally made me wanna punch a wall. Seriously anyone who's town and spamming the thread this much needs to realize they are benefiting scum a lotttttt more than town.
- Dunn seriously has the most posts but prob one of the lowest content in his posts. Being useless in the open to look like he's putting in ~effort~ and being ~helpful~.

- MDS's post 888 might be contender for worst single post in the whole thread.

you're like the second person to really be hating on this post and i'm trying to figure out why, explain this to me

I already responded to Dunn's question about it:

MDS's post 888 might be contender for worst single post in the whole thread.

Why?

Because I totally agree with this btw and voiced as much

I already explained this in the PT, but basically reads very generic and noncontroversial reads. Feels like she went from "Oh people aren't pleased or agreeing with my weird defense of Jester" to "Let me try to please people by having reads others are sharing so it looks like I'm helping to push wagons they want".

I guess to add to that the whole post just reeks of fencesitting while trying to please and satisfy others.

Same deal. Posts 463 and 1473 are interesting if SAD is scum.

[Dunnstral]

thing is I'm not sure to what extent I believe what's actually going on here is that SAD and Parama were distancing

And why is that?

[Dunnstral]

Also note it can be scout, too

[Dunnstral]

agreed, usually i'd have a read on you by now >: \

if there's anything you want to ask me about, go for it. I'm not exactly sure where to begin with this game.

I have town on HS, Cv666, inspectorscout, and SAD. I think Kagami is probably also town but I'm not as sure.

this game is very difficult to parse.

Yes because a good chunk of posts have been

1) about mechanics
2) bitching about people talking mechanics
3) various other useless stuff

And suspects so far?

I definitely don't agree with the push on S_S for "scum slipping"; I read S_S' 212 as a pretty clear "assuming you're town, this doesn't make sense" type of question.

I think his tone is annoying at points, but I don't think that's a good reason to scum read him either.

if you or anyone else wants to correct me on either of these points or pitch me a case for other reasons, I'd assess it, though.

I'm not satisfied with Parama's pushes outside of the S_S slip, either. the Kagami push also stood out to me, mostly because it felt like they were forcefully attempting to frame it as a "this is something no one else has thought about yet" push and the reasoning felt kind of meh. I also just feel like nothing they've posted has been particularly compelling or town in general, though it is very early in the game.

I would support a Gamma push; I think he's been very passive so far, and he hasn't attempted to make any pushes outside of backing the consensus push on S_S. I'd also like him to explain how he arrived at his Maria town read as quickly as he did.

I do find myself agreeing with the thread consensus on The_Jester; his reaction to HS around the 266 range felt deflective and like an overreaction for the sake of an overreaction, even though the initial point about his activity wasn't all that great.

i want every1's reads on Parame and HS.

HS is town, I actually have a slight scum read on Parama and would like if people could reiterate why they think they're town.

The town-shadow explanation there is that he finds Cerb's behavior odd and was poking at oddities without really thinking through the implications of them, which weighs against the probability that scum-shadow was poking at him in an effort to appear townish and did so in a very clumsy way. I don't think it's quite the smoking gun Parama is making it out to be, but meh.

OK I think I must be missing something because I still am not sure what exactly he missed in 212. I think 212 was intentionally worded in a way that assumed Cv666 was town, and the point was to say something along the lines of "if you're town this doesn't make sense". what am I missing here?

I also was gonna ask you about the Vedith scum read but it seems you've came around on it.

vote: The_Jester/MDS

I have basically just accepted the fact that I will never get anywhere if I try to read the entire game before posting every time.

by and large, I definitely agree with Nahdia that we need to be town hunting here and that optimal play is identifying a town/town pair that should survive to endgame; I largely think that if we're debating what order to lynch the rest of the pairs in, it should be done for information purposes and not by serially identifying the scummiest pairs. for that reason, I don't particularly care *that* much about who the lynch is so long as I'm not reading the pair as town.

as of page like 50-something, I still think The_Jester is scum, and I largely agree with consensus that GE/Vedith needs to die before endgame (this meaning I agree GE needs to die before endgame). I'm sad to admit that I could also see mhsmith0 as scum pretty easily, just based on how passive he is, though I'm open to correction if anyone wants to point me to something town he's done in the past however-many pages.

I am still very wary of Parama, although I think they look slightly better than I thought before based on what I have seen from them.

Kagami-san, you called for me?

Sorry we can't all be as good as you.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I'm saying that on D1, you correctly noticed that Parama's S_S push was nonsense.

I didn't scumread their push day 1, you're confusing your views with mine

OK. why didn't you question it

Umm

[Dunnstral]

There's almost no chance Dunn is scum. Will go over it when I'm not mobile, but the tl;dr is HS-interactions and his indignant reaction to being ignored today is beyond what I suspect his scum self is capable.

Uhh I don't see it at all you're gonna have to explain it much much better for the class because I actually really don't like his posting on the last few pages.

You're the one who needs to explain to the class.

This warrants a respone

And I don't know what you're trying to point out in the above post

[Dunnstral]

If Parama flips scum, still powerlynch Arthur/scout tomorrow.

[pieguyn]

I'm saying that on D1, you correctly noticed that Parama's S_S push was nonsense.

I didn't scumread their push day 1, you're confusing your views with mine

OK. why didn't you question it

Umm

go back and look at his posts.

he specifically pointed out that Parama's reasoning for S_S' "slip" wasn't any good, and that they had hard tunneled on it for 1300+ posts, but then he left it at that and dropped it entirely, despite it being highly scum-indicative (and him attempting to call you scum for "tunneling and not engaging with anything else in the game", which is the exact same fucking argument).

[Dunnstral]

despite it being highly scum-indicative

It wasn't for me for my read on him

Which I've said

[Dunnstral]

Why don't you take a look at your own posts and tell me what a hypocrite you are

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Vote: mhsmith/Pie

I'm super happy with this lynch and confident there's at least 1 scum.

Let's hope they're both scum and this game ends so I don't have to figure out which one of MDS/Dunn is the VI and which is scum. Or heaven forbid it's the fucking slot that is refusing to play the game (I totally understand it's Christmas week and stuff but has Jester had a content/substance post since like... before night?).

Pedit: @Pie, I'm talking about your reasoning. It's either you believe he was scumreading Parama for her shadow push or not, your logic seemed to go from "I'm gonna try to incriminate you with this" "oops fine let me try to switch my focus to incriminate you with this other thing".

It's like you're putting Dunn in Catch-22, where if he was scumreading Parama for her shadow push you're gonna say why he didn't push it harder, and if he wasn't you're gonna say why he wasn't scumreading him for that. Failing to reevaluate reads/keeping reads static especially at this stage of the game is a def nono for town-thinking.

[pieguyn]

see, if you were reading my posts, you would know that 1. I want to lynch my own pair today unless something crazy happens, and 2. I am fully admitting that if mhsmith is scum I'm probably just wrong about you, and that this is largely just something that needs to be focused on if he flips town.

you try to spin it like I'm "tunneling" you, though, because you need to make sure that you won't be incriminated by mhsmith's town flip.

[Dunnstral]

see, if you were reading my posts, you would know that 1. I want to lynch my own pair today unless something crazy happens, and 2. I am fully admitting that if mhsmith is scum I'm probably just wrong about you, and that this is largely just something that needs to be focused on if he flips town.

you try to spin it like I'm "tunneling" you, though, because you need to make sure that you won't be incriminated by mhsmith's town flip.

And if you were reading mine, you'd see me saying that there's a pretty good chance you guys are town if scout is scum, which is a very real possibility. And for that reasoning I don't want your pair to suicide until we see scout/sad flip

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

There's almost no chance Dunn is scum. Will go over it when I'm not mobile, but the tl;dr is HS-interactions and his indignant reaction to being ignored today is beyond what I suspect his scum self is capable.

Uhh I don't see it at all you're gonna have to explain it much much better for the class because I actually really don't like his posting on the last few pages.

You're the one who needs to explain to the class.

This warrants a respone

No it doesn't.

Thankfully I'm not at the stage of the game yet where I have to figure out if you're scum or VI, so I get to ignore your terrible posting for now.

[Dunnstral]

Let's hope they're both scum

They're not both scum

[Dunnstral]

Huh?

You don't have to figure it out for ~reasons~

[pieguyn]

It's like you're putting Dunn in Catch-22, where if he was scumreading Parama for her shadow push you're gonna say why he didn't push it harder, and if he wasn't you're gonna say why he wasn't scumreading him for that. Failing to reevaluate reads/keeping reads static especially at this stage of the game is a def nono for town-thinking.

first post was likely a wording error.

the key point here is that he explicitly saw something that should have been scum-indicative, and ignored it (and then he demonstrated with you on D2 that yes he does find the behavior that he was seeing with Parama scum-indicative - it was the exact same fucking angle).

[Dunnstral]

By the way I'm kind of comfortable calling pieguy town?

mhsmith is scum if there's scum at all

[pieguyn]

And if you were reading mine, you'd see me saying that there's a pretty good chance you guys are town if scout is scum, which is a very real possibility. And for that reasoning I don't want your pair to suicide until we see scout/sad flip

scout is not scum. I don't think SAD is either.

you are trying to lynch their pair first so that you have an easy lynch lined up on my pair in MYLO tomorrow, and you know that you'll be incriminated if you lynch my pair first.

[Dunnstral]

pieguy why are you singling me out and pointing out that I didn't hard push parama before 1300 for his tunnel when the reality is nobody outside of the person he was pushing really thought he was super scummy at the time?

Go back and look at YOUR OWN POSTS where you're actually feeling good about him

[pieguyn]

pieguy why are you singling me out and pointing out that I didn't hard push parama before 1300 for his tunnel when the reality is nobody outside of the person he was pushing really thought he was super scummy at the time?

Go back and look at YOUR OWN POSTS where you're actually feeling good about him

I'm not singling you out for "not hard pushing Parama". I'm singling you out because you specifically noticed why Parama's push was so bad, but didn't do anything at all about it.

if you look at my posts, I noticed it was bad and you can see me poking them over it, trying to get more information from them, etc., and still continuing to be wary of them even though there were other things that they did that looked town. Kagami suspected them too and I'd be willing to bet it was largely for the same reason. other people either largely bought the slip and didn't realize there was anything up until post-S_S flip, or agreed with the S_S lynch anyway.

there's nothing hypocritical or selective about it.

[pieguyn]

and I know that you have to make 1000 posts to cover the thread in noise in order to draw people's attention away from what I'm posting about you being scum, but christ it's getting old.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

you are trying to lynch their pair first so that you have an easy lynch lined up on my pair in MYLO tomorrow

But here's the thing

Do you really think scum-Dunn would make it super obvious like this that he's trying to mislynch me.

Like the more I think about it I think the scumteam would have to be massively stupid to try and continue to push the mislynch on me when Parama just failed. Instead of possibly keeping me at lylo when there is less town to try and convince to lynch me.

That's the thing, Parama's push was super obvious an attempt to get me out because she was the only one hardcore doing it (esp in such a bad way). But for Dunn being scum and continuing the push... seems hard to believe, instead of you know, being terrible at mafia and having no clue what he's doing. I'm heavily leaning VI.

There's also the fact that if HS didn't leave dance I really think there was a super high chance it would have neared deadline forcing Kagami to leave, meaning scum were probably hoping for that to happen if Kagami/Dunn is town (and didn't get on the Parama wagon). Which makes me feel like they were hoping for either my lynch or Dunn/Kagami leaving dance, entering lylo where Parama could continue her bullshit to swing the lynch on me.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

And the people who refused to get on Parama and instead stall the wagon to near deadline so Kagami leaves dance are you, mhsmith, MDS, and the non existent slot Jester, so I really think scum are in those.

[pieguyn]

That's the thing, Parama's push was super obvious an attempt to get me out because she was the only one hardcore doing it (esp in such a bad way). But for Dunn being scum and continuing the push... seems hard to believe, instead of you know, being terrible at mafia and having no clue what he's doing. I'm heavily leaning VI.

There's also the fact that if HS didn't leave dance I really think there was a super high chance it would have neared deadline forcing Kagami to leave, meaning scum were probably hoping for that to happen if Kagami/Dunn is town (and didn't get on the Parama wagon). Which makes me feel like they were hoping for either my lynch or Dunn/Kagami leaving dance, entering lylo where Parama could continue her bullshit to swing the lynch on me.

the thing is, Dunn has spent the entire D2 spreading suspicion about your pair and Parama's pair cross bussing each other. and when you think about it that way, it makes a lot of sense: he can easily enough contribute to the lynch on you if it goes that way, he can misdirect the people who think your pair becomes town on a Parama scum flip, and *if* Parama does happen to flip, he can easily enough continue with the push on you and it's consistent with his stated beliefs because he had prepared for it.

I also think what he's doing now is something he probably needs to do if he is scum. he can't attempt to just lynch you, since by yourselves you two look very town, but he has to lynch you at some point or another to win - when you think about it that way then I think it makes a lot of sense he'd try to abuse the Parama scum flip to incriminate you and reduce your town cred to make you more lynchable at a later point in the game (be it right after the Parama flip or in a 4p endgame).

I fully agree that mhsmith looks really awful here as well (hell he's my preferred lynch for today unless he comes back in and starts bleeding town), and that mhsmith being scum implies Dunn is town and I'm just on the wrong track here. I am just taking care of this now because Dunn's play still looks really bad to me and before I accept the sweet embrace of death, I need to make sure that people won't just forget about him *if* we're in the universe where mhsmith is town.