Mini 1857 Mafia Thread

[Sesq]

I want to lynch Titus tomorrow. TTTT, shannon, ssbm and I were wagoning her (not all at once) I think maybe if you could see her as that we could have something cut out. I think we should kill someone opposed to that wagon.

[Raskolnikov]

We don't have to, really. Titus is super lynchable as-is, I pretty much prevented her lynch so far. Everyone who townreads titus is, well, one of them is dead, the others are pretty scummy and make bad kills.

Townreads are more threatening to us than scumreads.

[Raskolnikov]

People generally settle on lynching null-reads eventually

It's "bonds" that are the problem, strong one likes kyouko-TTTT. Mutual ones, not one-way

In Lylo it eventually becomes each of us VS each of them. And if 2 people are together THERE it then takes BOTH of them pretty much out of the lynchpool and makes it us 2 vs the 1 remaining town... not an ideal fight

[Sesq]

Ok, so we want to kill TTTT because they have us as backup?

I didn't really catch up on that before... so I'm thinking it's subtle enough not to call attention. Also, the two bigger wagons (shadonra and Titus) were his bigger scumreads.

[Raskolnikov]

townreads based on "role" and "mechanic" stuff like titus being a PR are never as solid as play/natural townreads either too
And doctor flip throws a whole lot of that into the toilet

[Raskolnikov]

I want to lynch Titus tomorrow. TTTT, shannon, ssbm and I were wagoning her (not all at once) I think maybe if you could see her as that we could have something cut out. I think we should kill someone opposed to that wagon.

Well, that's 3 people in favour. L-1 tomorrow

Drone and shadonra opposed, and even then not very strongly, and even then titus wants to lynch both of them, and even then this doctor flip is terrible for titus.

[Sesq]

How does doctor flip affect anything? I ain't seeing it.

[Raskolnikov]

It's one of those things. Everyone thinks they know setup speculation and "common sense". It's like all the VCA nonsense you saw.

The issue isn't with not knowing something, that's actually fine. It's with thinking you know something when you don't... just watch tomorrow what people'll say about it.

[Raskolnikov]

Setup spec theory is there's a certain level of "power" in a game.
So when people see what they think is a "reasonable" level of power, any further PR becomes harder to believe on the basis of "there's no way there's that many!".

[Sesq]

Looks like we're going to have a good cruise, ain't that some shit?

[Raskolnikov]

mmm, not true really

when the pressures on and town is backed into a corner and desperate is when things get figured out

[Sesq]

it was more a joke-reference

[Raskolnikov]

there's people who suck under pressure and people who are great under it

titus and gerryoat are the type that usually lynch themselves if pressured

kyoukos kind of neutral, he's towny but maybe a bit passive

but shannon, drone, maybe shadonra, they fight their lynch SO HARD

when it's lylo and you know everything's on the line some people get all this energy and passion. And sometimes it overpowers us kind of boring or flat scum, cuz we're having an easy time of it and its hard to look like we're stressed out

[Raskolnikov]

my bad

I kinda take this too seriously tbh lol

[Raskolnikov]

anyway we can sleep on deciding the kill

the d7 kill was kind of last minute and I think that worked out awesome

[Raskolnikov]

Titus
Drone
TTTT
Kyouko
Shannon
Shadonra

In an ideal world?
Well I've had plans for shannon being in lylo, tbh. I was gonna townread her today and go back to it lylo with my good pal shadonra. Townreads us both.
Killing shadonra feels iffy when titus will 100% tunnel him tomorrow, and he's useful to lynch shannon with. Could go either way on us, but 1v1'ing a slot like that is doable.

seems like the real list of choices here is

TTTT - Hard to lynch, strong townreads kyouko, doesn't townread either of us.
Kyouko - townread by TTTT but not 100% returning it, townreads us
Titus - still a PR at the end of the way? Neighbour thing could maybe make her town? Doesn't townread you.
Drone - Neighbour thing could make him town still? Doesn't townread you I think. He's actually one of the more sane players in this game.

[Raskolnikov]

Titus flip makes drone look good though because of the neighbour thing.

[Raskolnikov]

Ideal world I'd kill TTTT, lynch titus, then maybe kill drone based on the "neighbour" thing as a no-info kill.

[Raskolnikov]

well I guess lynching drone and killing titus is the exact same thing as doing the opposite, seems less likely though?

[Raskolnikov]

BTW we're going to start to take actual heat starting tomorrow. I thought it'd happen today actually but people were distracted.

I'll be okay, TTTT kill will make a few people scratch heads (why him over me?) but people don't vote on that unless it's actually lylo

but there's a realistic chance a wagon happens on you, maybe 30%? key is to survive it. In that case I probably have to join for associations which is rough.
and as smooth as things looked for me so far, I SHOULDN'T be the sole survivor. Because that forces another nightkill to be done, you know. And if I'm most townread but aren't the nightkill still, and appear in 3p LYLO that's terrible and puts odds of losing to maybe 40-50%

if we both just survive tomorrow, and get into 5p lylo I'd put our odds at like 80% though

[Raskolnikov]

Associations too. associations!
We have to actually do them this time tomorrow. We've like super ignored each other yesterday.

I had a post earlier on what'd have been awesome... basically if I call and treat you like newb/bad town and you start to push me maybe.
then I can beg and plead to try to "change" your mind: those are the interactions people use to rule out people from being partners. deep "genuine" ones

[Raskolnikov]

just, uh, keep in mind as town you're not happy about being in pre-lylo. people are gonna say it's pre-lylo and be all upset and stuff so if we're just all cold and nonchalant its ehhh. you don't have to get emotional but as long as your posts convey a sort of "we don't really have any more chances" it should be okay. This is a LOSING situation to town. they don't like it and it shows in their posts.

it's hard for us because proportionally the more desperate the town situation the closer the game feels to over and makes me feel kinda lazy and lowers my guard. it's hard to match the effort of town when they start to panick and make their last stand, this is why comebacks happen. It's why I tried so hard here actually, coming in with RB dead d1 and a huge town advantage made it seem like all the odds were stacked against us,

when games like this turn around (happens a fair bit) its because town play their heart out and you can feel their kinda desperation knowing if they're wrong here it's pretty much over, so they worry and are extra super paranoid more than ever (including on us, which is why we probably take some heat and maybe a few votes). if everyone's kind of sharing their moment of danger and scum then be like "oh well that sucks. this new guy is scum VOTE: BOB" and act all unfazed and inappropriate for the situation it kind of sticks out.

[Raskolnikov]

raskolnikov kills TTTT, rolecops Shadonra

might still change it, idk. i was gonna just kill titus originally tbh

this is a lil gambity cuz it kinda relies on lynching one titus or drone tomorrow, but I think thats very doable especially with doctor flip.

not to mention titus probably still pushes on shadonra lol. Actually even that lynch wouldn't be the end of the world even though its a lot worse

[Raskolnikov]

sesq we need need need to not ignore each other tomorrow though.

best kind of associations are asymmetrical associations, BTW. Basically having different reads on each other, instead of both having the same view. and its probably better you scumread or try to push me and I townread you, then the other way around, cuz when I push people they end up looking bad and sometimes getting lynched which I don't really want for you

please look at 220 221 and tell me what you think

[Raskolnikov]

I know pushing or having a scumread on me is kind of annoying because of all the reading involved, but i could help you out there

there are things which sound really good to say but won't actually make people also scumread me, and that's ideal. but it means like talking and planning. every other scumgame I've had there's been at least some level of work put into this.

for example bringing up d1 stuff/ironstove is "easy" but would actually make me look bad so it's not good to have people thinking about... I don't have any defense towards that so if people get it in their head that's like the only big problem I'd have to deal with.
Bringing up things like "activity" and "style" otoh still accomplishes a push but people will disagree and think it's TvT for example. I know what people often say about me in games I play so I could just tell you from experience what people say and it'll come across good to the others