Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[Raskolnikov]

There's some "soft" things I'd assume but nothing hard and fast

1. Roleblock shuts down X-shot very hard. According to wiki, x-shot getting roleblocked still consumes the shot permanently and leaves the role with 1 less. With 2-shot follower or the joat the denial seems out of line.
2. PR synergy is questionable. UB bringing back a role wouldn't reset shots either and would be potentially useless, i.e. if LUV was killed n2 a UB would inherit 0-shot follower.
3. Jailkeep, BP, and full doctor is a ton of safety. UB would be safety on top of that. I could see an x-shot strongman to deal with jailkeep, bp and full doctor but a full strongman seems like it would outright negate them and defeat the purpose... if I'd have to add a counterbalance to the town power, scum investigative could work though?
4. Neighbourstuff. This is already a can of worms, but a PR in a neighbourhood would mean something else too. If 2-person neighbourhoods were generally town, town titus as PR would have the option of playing THROUGH her neighbour if she managed to townread before the UB triggered. This is potentially MASSIVE power, as a play by proxy would buy the PR even more extra life especially if doctor was on. Wifom would still keep it rare but all it'd take still would be a townread?

[Raskolnikov]

I think it's a fakeclaim here. The setup seems townsided after the doctor flip and titus has a reputation for claiming crazy things and creative play in general.
She's still alive d4 and didn't jailkeep anyone last night apparently which is straight up dumb after doctor died... Not jailkeeping shadonra makes sense with how much she expressed the scumread (and apparently ascetic) but you'd at least jailkeep kyouko if you see them as partner and they're heavily townread and a possible NK to boot. Titus is a really experienced player and even though the conviction makes it sound like she believes what she says I think it's not that hard to fake, given the simplicity of her arguments.

It's weird too because fluffy seemed benign enough and I really liked titus pushing shannon when I got in but I'm definitely not sure on that one anymore. Probably not the most reliable tell there is tbh.

That said, now of all times shadonra's actually kind of gone quiet even though his entrance was pretty good. Given he's being hard pushed by titus who's leading wagon he should really give his thoughts on all of this. I want his analysis and some stances here as opposed to sheeping.

If today's a mislynch this becomes pretty much unwinnable so today HAS to be done right. Would be a bit more comfortable with this if titus didn't rocket to l-1 as fast as she did either.

[Drone]

The choice of Impoetic and for gunsmith and the result seem like a safe claim.
This can add up.
Again, we can be horribly wrong here, but the doc flip points she did fake claim.
Since she's this good, I'm confident with the lynch.
She'd be bashing me and dissing me hard for voting her if she'd be town.

[Drone]

I'm betting on Shadonra being town if Titus is scum.

[shannon]

Drone, is the neighbourhood real? And is it true that neither of you is a neighbouriser, you were just in it from the get go?

[shannon]

I think it's a fakeclaim here. The setup seems townsided after the doctor flip and titus has a reputation for claiming crazy things and creative play in general.

She's still alive d4 and didn't jailkeep anyone last night apparently which is straight up dumb after doctor died... Not jailkeeping shadonra makes sense with how much she expressed the scumread (and apparently ascetic) but you'd at least jailkeep kyouko if you see them as partner and they're heavily townread and a possible NK to boot.

Titus is a really experienced player and even though the conviction makes it sound like she believes what she says I think it's not that hard to fake, given the simplicity of her arguments.

It's weird too because fluffy seemed benign enough and I really liked titus pushing shannon when I got in but I'm definitely not sure on that one anymore. Probably not the most reliable tell there is tbh.

That said, now of all times shadonra's actually kind of gone quiet even though his entrance was pretty good. Given he's being hard pushed by titus who's leading wagon he should really give his thoughts on all of this. I want his analysis and some stances here as opposed to sheeping.

If today's a mislynch this becomes pretty much unwinnable so today HAS to be done right. Would be a bit more comfortable with this if titus didn't rocket to l-1 as fast as she did either.

^^This

[Titus]

I withheld my jailkeep because it's a crap shoot and useless if Shad is ascetic.

[shadonra]

Post in a few hrs when I get home. Quick thoughts

- I still think Titus is town
- Kyouko dropped to lean scummy and shannon went up a bit after yesterday
- Starting to suspect Rask

[Titus]

Jailkeep is used at 1 scum not two.

[JaeReed]

VC 4.04

Titus (3)

: ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, Drone

-- L-1!

shadonra (1)

: Titus

NOT VOTING (3)

: shannon, Raskolnikov, shadonra

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-19 16:10:00)

[shadonra]

I think it's a fakeclaim here. The setup seems townsided after the doctor flip and titus has a reputation for claiming crazy things and creative play in general.

She's still alive d4 and didn't jailkeep anyone last night apparently which is straight up dumb after doctor died... Not jailkeeping shadonra makes sense with how much she expressed the scumread (and apparently ascetic) but you'd at least jailkeep kyouko if you see them as partner and they're heavily townread and a possible NK to boot.

Titus is a really experienced player and even though the conviction makes it sound like she believes what she says I think it's not that hard to fake, given the simplicity of her arguments.

It's weird too because fluffy seemed benign enough and I really liked titus pushing shannon when I got in but I'm definitely not sure on that one anymore. Probably not the most reliable tell there is tbh.

That said, now of all times shadonra's actually kind of gone quiet even though his entrance was pretty good. Given he's being hard pushed by titus who's leading wagon he should really give his thoughts on all of this. I want his analysis and some stances here as opposed to sheeping.

If today's a mislynch this becomes pretty much unwinnable so today HAS to be done right. Would be a bit more comfortable with this if titus didn't rocket to l-1 as fast as she did either.

^^This

This doesn't actually make any sense

[shadonra]

The choice of Impoetic and for gunsmith and the result seem like a safe claim.
This can add up.
Again, we can be horribly wrong here, but the doc flip points she did fake claim.
Since she's this good, I'm confident with the lynch.
She'd be bashing me and dissing me hard for voting her if she'd be town.

Can you explain this part? I don't understand how claiming no result = guilty on Impo is a safe claim. I assume by doc -> Titus fake claim you mean that the setup is townsided, but from my POV I know there's a roleblocker. I don't like the rest of your post, but I don't have Titus meta so I don't feel like judging you on this.

[shadonra]

I think the strangest thing that happened today was that TTTT got nightkilled.
Impo/Shad - mislynchable
Titus - Town could be convinced to lynch neighbors in LyLo, probably
Drone - ditto
Rask - Seems too town to be alive, tbh
Shannon - mislynchable
kyouko - kinda null, doesn't seem strong enough town to NK
Sesq - I expected this or Rask to die.

I think the nightkill points towards Rask/Sesq, and slightly towards Titus (strange things apparently point to Titus)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Only way shad and Titus are town is if drone and Rask are the team

Why?

Why couldn't I get a Shad wagon through if that is the team? It would make much more sense that they're protecting a partner.

SSM, I want an explanation for this, not an offhand comment about how Shad has no partners.

Not strange TTTT died. Scum tried to mislynch me yesterday and TTTT turned on Gerry immediately. No way would he vote me yesterday and after yesterday there's no way I'd have voted him. Sesq will probably die tonight, scum are setting up to go for me in LyLo, trying to avoid lynching within Titus/Drone/me today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Accidental quote, will reply to that in a sec

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Only way shad and Titus are town is if drone and Rask are the team

Why?

Why couldn't I get a Shad wagon through if that is the team? It would make much more sense that they're protecting a partner.

SSM, I want an explanation for this, not an offhand comment about how Shad has no partners.

This is not an offhand comment about how shad has no partners. This is me saying that the only way both you and shadonra are town is if Drone and Rask are the team. Let me explain where my conclusion of Drone and Rask come from here:

I'm town (Role PM)
Titus is town (for the purpose of this hypothetical)
Shad is town (for the purpose of this hypothetical)
Sesq is town (VCA)

This leaves Drone, Shannon, and Rask.
Shannon is not teamed with either of these players if you look at the votes, or the rask tunnel on shannon, imo.

This leaves Drone and Rask as the team if Titus and Shad are both town.

For anyone considering lynching outside of [Titus, Drone, Kyouko], consider the following:

VC 2.20 (FINAL)

Lil Uzi Vert

(6)

:

TTTT, gerryoat

,

drealmerz7

, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Drone

-- LYNCH!

shannon (1)

: Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

: shannon

Titus (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (2)

: Impoetic, Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

Flip incoming.

LUV was not lynched by 6 town.

[Titus]

All town wagons do happen, and this reeks of posturing after I get lynched to go after Shad.

I do think Shad is obvious scum, but last post is terrible grandstanding.

[Drone]

Yeah, Shadonra is town.

Raskolnikov, why are you you alive?

[Drone]

The choice of Impoetic and for gunsmith and the result seem like a safe claim.
This can add up.
Again, we can be horribly wrong here, but the doc flip points she did fake claim.
Since she's this good, I'm confident with the lynch.
She'd be bashing me and dissing me hard for voting her if she'd be town.

Can you explain this part? I don't understand how claiming no result = guilty on Impo is a safe claim. I assume by doc -> Titus fake claim you mean that the setup is townsided, but from my POV I know there's a roleblocker. I don't like the rest of your post, but I don't have Titus meta so I don't feel like judging you on this.

1) This is something I didn't share with anyone up until now; but I always felt like, of all targets why Impoetic? With gunsmith??
Their existence was blurry and they barely did anything. Definitely they could target me for example, who they suspected back then.

2) I don't have a Titus meta, I actually met her the first time here.
But we're neighbours and it helped me to get to know her.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

All town wagons do happen, and this reeks of posturing after I get lynched to go after Shad.

I do think Shad is obvious scum, but last post is terrible grandstanding.

No, today's lynch is between Me, you, and Drone. If we hit town today, tomorrow's lynch is between the 2 that remain of those 3. How can you not see that this is the best chance for a town victory?

[shadonra]

I'd lynch Drone first out of those 3. Drone might be my top overall choice for lynch, I have to think about it more

[Drone]

All town wagons do happen, and this reeks of posturing after I get lynched to go after Shad.

I do think Shad is obvious scum, but last post is terrible grandstanding.

No, today's lynch is between Me, you, and Drone. If we hit town today, tomorrow's lynch is between the 2 that remain of those 3. How can you not see that this is the best chance for a town victory?

How did I get into equation?

[Titus]

SSM, why did multiple counters come up to you yesterday?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait why can't shad live until LyLo?

Think about this:
Nobody besides You and Drone know if the neighborhood is real. If you 2 make it to 5 way LyLo and you're both town, then there's no way that 3rd townie isn't going to be convinced to vote one or the other of you.
This is why Titus+Drone can't be allowed into LyLo.

Titus and I are so hellbent on SRing one another that if we're both town we will refuse to vote anyone besides each other, and scum will be able to lynch either of us
This is why Titus+Kyouko can't be allowed into LyLo.

Do you disagree with either of these statements? Do you think you would be able to resist voting me if shad flipped town today? Do you think I would resist voting you tomorrow considering how convinced I am you're lying about your claims? There's no way any of the 3 of us get NKed tonight if none of us get lynched. It would be a nightmare if we were all alive in LyLo and all town.

You have to die, so weigh the possibilities. I know you think shad is my partner. Who is Drone's partner, if he's scum? I know town!Titus is smart enough to come up with a good theory about his partner

This post should explain how you're in the equation drone. There's still a chance your hood is maf/town. I've explained us 3 being the votes before that post too I think.

@Titus - Both of my counter wagons came up because people were pushed to the limit of how much they would let their other TRs push me. Sesq flipped on you and TTTT flipped on Gerry.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Titus, where do you get the idea that I'm trying to lynch shad after you?