Open 669 - Nightless Vengeful Mayhem [Game Over]

[wgeurts]

Phone-posting whilst commuting:

@Mod, what is the nature of the kill and what is Hawk's role? That sort of information should be available to us, could you confirm whether it is a mod-kill or mafia shot?

[wgeurts]

Also yeah, stay tuned for a read wall one again. I'm going to assume Hawk was town for now but that gives a chance to do some early associative tells. I'll reread the thread once I'm free and I'll put together a set of reads plus explanations.

[Ultimate Despair]

Cool. While you're at it

I misread some stuff earlier, ignore that post I made on ultimate completely as I hadn't seen that he was pointing out Doom's behaviour. If anything I'd call that ever so slightly town, what I said earlier is wrong.

...so what did you mistakenly think I was trying to say?
- Junko

We still want an answer on this
-M

[wgeurts]

Also, some quick thought dumps:
This kill either shows that we have a less experienced scum team and that something about Hawk unnerved them, checking interactions with him could yield information if so.

It could also indicate a more experienced team trying to disturb the flow of the game. I however lean towards the former as the game is starting to stall slightly (START POSTING PEOPLE), and the benefits of killing Hawk now don't seem to be worth more than saving the shot. If a game is stalling it's in the scums interest to let it stall, less discussion works in their favour. Killing someone tends to spark some new discussion, which doesn't make all too much sense. If they're currently under a lot of pressure it would still make sense to wait with the kill, however it takes experience to know this. Finally it's so much better to wait with any kill until later as the day is still just beginning, things can change easily and kills become ever the more important later game.

Food for thought.

[wgeurts]

I'm a little confused about the mechanics. How do the Mafia kill more than two people with no night phase and only two daykills?

Hey, everyone. I'm doomfeathers and I'm here to remind you that as a member of the town, I don't know anything about the way scum operates in this setup and therefore need to ask a question to everyone so you all know how ignorant of the mafia inner mechanisms I am.

Scum ping for the LAMIST.

- Junko

Now this post really unnerves me already. Why would you post something like this even as town? If you're aware of this kind of behaviour it's best to just wait and see if anyone displays it as you could draw information from it. I wouldn't however call this post inherently scum on its own though. Usually you'd be able to look at playstyle for this type of thing. We do however know at least Junko has some mafia experience and won't be able to play a newbie card.

UD, I was tired and somehow completely overlooked that this was you responding to someone. I read it as you being the one claiming issues with mechanics and then dumping a layer of WiFoM over it. In hindsight that's ridiculous and that's why I changed views after seeing my mistake.

[Ultimate Despair]

It could also indicate a more experienced team trying to disturb the flow of the game

I'm curious what you mean here. The "screwup" explanation seems straightforwardly plausible; what kind of experienced team action do you think would fit or even be sensible in this situation? Like, Hawk got shot, and other than resetting the vote counts (just a mechanical thing anyway since people can just revote), how did it actually disturb the flow of the game?
-M

[Sesq]

Honestly, too tired to post and analyse right now.

Will post by the morning.

By now, the Hawk kill seems random. There was not anything about his kill that would make anyone townier or scummier. I think that maybe we were going on the right track, and so, they killed Hawk to reset the lynches and try to put paranoia on us.

But why someone who had a relatively high amount of heat?

My gut-read of you just grows stronger. Near irresistible.

[wgeurts]

It could also indicate a more experienced team trying to disturb the flow of the game

I'm curious what you mean here. The "screwup" explanation seems straightforwardly plausible; what kind of experienced team action do you think would fit or even be sensible in this situation? Like, Hawk got shot, and other than resetting the vote counts (just a mechanical thing anyway since people can just revote), how did it actually disturb the flow of the game?
-M

If for some reason the scum team really wanted to stir-up how the game was heading killing someone is distraction that has a chance of accomplishing that. People analyse stuff and start to draw new conclusions, if they're amongst those making conclusions that seem somewhat legitimate then they can avert whatever later game scenario they didn't want. This however seems unlikely for the reasons I mentioned above though.

[Ultimate Despair]

wguerts post 39 is town. thinking about the game,wanting to discuss the game, actively engaged. All the things scum tend to avoid.

This post concerns me. Your take seems to boil down to "he's doing stuff, therefore town" which is a pretty surface-level treatment of what looks like a pretty null post that any somewhat competent scum player could pretty easily make.

I'm even more concerned given that there was a pretty substantive point made against the post, by Magna at 59, that you either missed or chose to not address.

Now that I've drawn your attention to both Magna's point and the general "posting a bunch of words that aren't entirely fluff doesn't make someone town" argument, why did you think that 39 was in particular town? Do you think Magna's points are illegitimate or incorrect?

[Ultimate Despair]

Honestly, too tired to post and analyse right now.

Will post by the morning.

By now, the Hawk kill seems random. There was not anything about his kill that would make anyone townier or scummier. I think that maybe we were going on the right track, and so, they killed Hawk to reset the lynches and try to put paranoia on us.

But why someone who had a relatively high amount of heat?

My gut-read of you just grows stronger. Near irresistible.

Do you mean "why NOT someone who had a relatively high amount of heat"? I don't understand the point you're trying to make here. Nor do I understand what was actually wrong with the supposition that we were on the right track and that the point of the kill was to mess with us somehow?

Personally, I think that "we were on the right track so scum kinda panicked" makes more sense than "this was a well-thought out plan to magically get town distracted", but the more important idea that it reinforces the notion that our reads were generally correct (regardless of the level of careful thought that went into the shot) seems pretty reasonable to me, and I don't understand why this is a scum point in your mind for lucca, so I'd like you lay out your reasoning more clearly so i can get it.

-M

[Ultimate Despair]

doom's page 8 is probtown fwiw

-M

[Ultimate Despair]

I'm a bit concerned that scum didn't choose to shoot a more veteran player like MOI or WG, but as long as the "screwup" explanation continues to be plausible, i think that's an issue for a later time
-M

PS It's also possible that scum is doing some weird WIFOM thing where they're shooting Hawk just to further implicate the suspects on the board, but that frankly seems pointless, since there was always decent odds that the wagons as they existed were gonna go through. Which to me just further suggests "screwup".

[Sesq]

Honestly, too tired to post and analyse right now.

Will post by the morning.

By now, the Hawk kill seems random. There was not anything about his kill that would make anyone townier or scummier. I think that maybe we were going on the right track, and so, they killed Hawk to reset the lynches and try to put paranoia on us.

But why someone who had a relatively high amount of heat?

My gut-read of you just grows stronger. Near irresistible.

Do you mean "why NOT someone who had a relatively high amount of heat"? I don't understand the point you're trying to make here. Nor do I understand what was actually wrong with the supposition that we were on the right track and that the point of the kill was to mess with us somehow?

Personally, I think that "we were on the right track so scum kinda panicked" makes more sense than "this was a well-thought out plan to magically get town distracted", but the more important idea that it reinforces the notion that our reads were generally correct (regardless of the level of careful thought that went into the shot) seems pretty reasonable to me, and I don't understand why this is a scum point in your mind for lucca, so I'd like you lay out your reasoning more clearly so i can get it.

-M

Well, it depends what goal scum was going for. If they were trying to get rid of someone to distract, why would it be someone they could potentially mislynch? Then again, Hawk might be onto scum, and if he is lynched he could have killed scum. Alternate setup stuff. I think this hypothesis has some credibility, but it might be in duality with trying to freak out town. Regardless, we should try to get our bearings.

As for it being a scum point for lucca, it's all gut. I know I have no legitimate evidence and I'm not going to pretend as if I do. But if he does flip scum, oh boy am I going to have a day analyzing his posts to see what triggered my gut.

[wgeurts]

Also add a third possibility, the scum just want to mess around.

[wgeurts]

I'm almost done with my reads wall (emphasis on wall, five more players to cover and then taking a look at hawks posts). The lack of posts is concerning me though.

[wgeurts]

{wgeurts}
{UD, Doom}
(magna, Lucca}
{mozamis, sesq}
{Superhans, havingfitz}
{Revan, FC}

mozamis - Town lean

Mozamis' first post (67) isn't really notable besides the comment about the majority of posts probably being "town on town bollocks", this strikes me as an odd comment to make but it's not enough on its own to warrant a read. He also states that Hawk is very town, not providing any explanation and in post 68 states that doom is probably town despite some shoddy reasoning (already discussed). Posts 82 and 86 state that he doesn't place much worth in early day 1 reads, although it doesn't justify his earlier reads it does make them more acceptable and thus believable. Same thing applies to his read on me in post 91, pretty bad reasoning but it appears he doesn't care much for early in-depth analysis. His reads in post 98 somewhat align with my own, although I dislike the lack of explanation I do assign some town credit to this as I would expect people with the same goal drawing somewhat overlapping conclusions. The rest of his posts are fluff.

What I find most notable is how he was so quick to call Hawk town, I doubt you'd do that and then shoot that person as that kind of stuff would carry a huge risk of being fried for white-knighting. mozamis being an older player, and thus I assume has decent experience with mafia, I'd lean towards town on as such. It's a weak read though, he doesn't have much strong content and it would be great to get some explanations for his reads and see him somewhat more engaged.

MagnaofIllusion - Weak-town

Magna's first post 27 is okay, his scum-read on doom there is decentish (although I still don't see what he is saying about his first post), and my first post was awful as I was blatantly mistaken about something. His questioning of people in post 45 is also okay, still nothing that would per-say not come from scum though. I do like his vote on FC in post 46 though, his explanation comes in post 48 and is along the lines of why I disliked FC's post. Post 59 is a good post too, his interactions with me seem to show him trying to figure out how things stand regarding me and my alignment. 73 is also okay.

All in all I wouldn't say that Magna is certainly town, however there's definitely something that appears to be him trying to figure people out in his posts. I get the feeling that his alignment will largely be set in stone later game once there's more content.

wgeurts - Town

Unless this is secretly a bastard game or I can't read I'm town. This is just here for all those people that get really worked up about people including themselves in reads-lists.

Revan - Weak-scum

Revan actually has more posts than I had expected, which in itself is somewhat condemning. All his first posts are fluff, or contain useless questions: take posts 51 and 126 for example. For someone telling others to hold off on him and let him "analyse" and "established a framework for this game" (which he claimed to have almost done in post 126) he's got an awful not of nothing. His first set of content is in post 156, which contains a reads-list containing two unexplained reads (Lucca as town, magna as weak-town). I'm so glad all his analysis and framework building paid off... In a parallel universe. Lucca is a notably odd read, definitely want some more details as to why he's there. Also having almost everyone as null is too easy. His posts so far do give the impression he's just trying to appear useful through asking question which in reality are useless, whilst banking off a promise to provide content once he's established himself. Having everyone as null can from a scum-perspective also be seen as a manner of keeping your options open. 169, his second reads-list is funny. Puts me as town after I showed I wasn't happy with his play (may be wrong here but I can't be assed to check whether this post came before or after my comment) and doom (a pretty gobally criticised player a notable amount have as "keep an eye on") as scum. No explanations once again. Not liking what I'm seeing so far.

Sesq - Town lean

As already discussed sesq's vote in post 57 on doom could be seen as opportunism, him being a newer player makes this a possibility of a scum post. The manner he responds to this pressure in post 64 leads me to question this however. The "why me fry me" is concerning, however the aggression makes sense from a frustrated town perspective. Which leads me to the following question:

Do you have any scum-games you can link us to sesq?

If evidence can be found for him playing aggressively as scum would erase the above and make it entirely null.

His reads are okay, nothing that really strongly leans either way but I'm giving them ever so slight town points as they are valid and do somewhat make sense. He's showing some indication of thought in post 137, and 188 is acceptable. I do like how he's stating that he's open to explaining himself wherever though. The final comment on lucca in 212 is also brutally honest, and something I really struggle to see a scum player making (especially a newer one). Newer players have the tendency to want to seem completely justified in all that they do as scum, often obsessively so. Either that or they do this apathetic opportunistic thingy. I'm willing to lean town on sesq.

Ultimate Despair - The-word-less-strong-than-weak town

I've already stated I quite like post 17 despite an earlier mix-up, this hasn't changed. They miss part of the early stuff which I'm going to assume is explained by time-zones, will note when they post and when they don't however. Their first few posts when they do show up are eh, but okay. Posts like 140 and 141 don't accomplish all too much and can rather easily be made as scum, though they do display what appears to be thought. Post 144 is interesting, I'm intrigued as to why they're deciding to look for scum on sesq's wagon. It seems like a more town thing to do, but I'd still like to see the reasoning behind it. The vote on mozam isn't all too strong but has some acceptable reasoning backing it. They're not going for any of the popular wagons, which is either really condemning if those start flipping scum or great if they don't.

I disagree with what they think on Revan in post 154, as I've already stated I believe that this is just what Revan is trying to let off. Them pursuing me and making sure I answer something in post 202 is good. The interaction that follows is also decent, and more so than most players it looks like this slot is actually trying to get somewhere and get answers from which they then draw conclusions. Townish stuff. 211 is also another decent post. Willing to call this slot more town than the others right now.

lucca261 - Weak-town

Lucca's first realy content is in post 92; he states that he is not happy with magna's first post with some shoddy reasoning, and then makes a bunch of comments some of which contain something of use. It's not a great post, but the fact he's first criticising magna and then considering the slot as town is okay, his things on doom aren't spectacular but also show some thought. Next post (102) is somewhat better, the questions he asks are useful though I need to see him following up on them, his comment on revan also somewhat aligns with my thoughts on him.

@Lucca, please for our sake just use the tags when referring to posts, it would literally shrink the size of your posts by 10 times or something which is enough to make them bearable. I know that's slightly hypocritical coming from me as this post is huge, though imagine the size it would have if I quoted every post I mention in it. Rant over.

111 fits everything I've said about his earlier posts, notably I'm fine with his answer to my question about his view on my earlier posts. It's not the best logic I've ever seen, but it's not blatantly spouting nonsense. He's at least putting thought into stuff. Vote on Revan in 121 is okay. His reaction to Hawk's death in post 191 could be feigned scum reaction, though it's also understandable as town as Hawk's death is rather odd. Won't assign it all too much worth as such.

Overall, I'm willing to say Lucca is more likely to be town than scum. Just a bit more so than sesq and mozam.

Superhans - Null

Superhans is absent from all the first interactions. I'm not going to write a lot here as I don't have terribly much to say. He's not got much content, his vote on revan is okay and his point on doom isn't worth much. I'm null on this slot until he posts more content.

Friend Computer - Weak-scum

FC's first post isn't all too great (post 44), he votes Doom in what could be seen as a rather opportunistic manner (especially since he's also a newer player). Post 133 is also kind of odd, he suspects magna... but he doesn't? In fact magna gets a null-town read along with sesq in post 138. All FC's posts up till now have been fluff or useless, no good content. Only having two null-town reads is something he shouldn't be allowed to get away with. He later in post 153 adds doom to a scum pile trying to justify his earlier vote for which he was criticise (he states doom made a slip-up, doesn't point out where or how though) and scum reads all lurkers (this just seems too easy and opportunistic). This doesn't shed a good light on FC. You remember how I mentioned that "apathetic opportunistic thingy" newer scum players sometimes do? That's what I'm currently seeing here.

doomfeathers - The-word-less-strong-than-weak town

Doom's first few posts are kind of odd. Take post 37 for example. After asking for a clarification on some game mechanics (discussed earlier so I won't go into it here) he then goes ahead and votes me with some rather warped reasoning (something I have already covered as well). I at the time didn't like this, however I'm now considering that he's likely a newer mafia player simply using warped reasoning and lines-of-thought which in his eyes make sense when at times they're not that great. In post 72 he seems satisfied with my response and moves on, I really don't get what he's trying to say about me but I find it hard to see scum doing this. He also justifies some of his behaviour with a wiki article, something newer players have a tendency to do although it's outdated information. I knew an article like the one mentioned existed, however I wanted to see whether he could link it swiftly to make sure he wasn't making stuff up. He did so, passing that test and making some of his thoughts not more valid but more believable.

His votes are all over the place, he votes someone for some odd little thing and then unvotes. When he unvotes it's usually paired with an explanation that makes sense in a kind of new-player twisted way. I don't think scum would play like this, he's not being opportunistic and there's definitely some train of thought to be seen in his transitions. Look at his vote on and off hawk for example, and with sesq. There's also the matter that the way he interacts with hawk simply doesn't like scum talking to town. Finally he also is notably in the "keep an eye on" pile for almost everyone in the game, this sets alarm bells off. Nobody is hard pursuing him but he's there, an option to be taken if the flow of the game provides an opportunity. I'm willing to wager doom is town.

I've quoted referred to less posts in this explanation than in others, if you want me to provide examples if you don't see what I'm seeing just ask and I'll provide.

havingfitz - Null

It's been two hours writing this post, thank god fitz only has like two posts. Post 157 is the only one with content, it mostly contains a bunch of comments on stuff but nothing all too spectacular. Null. Need more content before I shed a judgement.

Hawk analysis post-death:

There's really not much to note, I'm more convinced now of the scum team consisting of largely newer players and that's also somewhat aligning with my reads so far. I'll take another look at the Sesq/Doom-Hawk interactions again later when I'm less brain fried after two hours of analysis. Maybe I'll get more then.

[wgeurts]

If you guys don't start posting soon I'm gonna eat a shoe for doing this all despite having none of the town work along.

[wgeurts]

Like, we've got a flipping death! Go look at interactions and see whether some are more likely to be Town-Town or Scum-Town! Pitch in on others conclusions drawn because of his death. Discuss reads! Why do you agree/disagree. Only by talking and discussing every aspect, having everyone pitch in to get as many view-points as possible can we root out the scum. We don't have PR's this game, rhetoric is our only tool so all that don't post are literally a liability to the town and I'm going to go ahead and say that you're then playing against your win-condition.

If scum have any sense they'll shoot me sooner or later, then you've lost one of your biggest posters. Maybe I'm scum, who cares just flipping post and talk about that maybe? It's in your own interest.

[lucca261]

Posting right now. Let's go.

[wgeurts]

Oh, if it isn't clear I'm a lot better at town-hunting than scum-hunting. I really require some deaths before my scum-reads become more solid.

[lucca261]

Sesq 130

This post is a mixed post for me. I like some of the reads, and it feels like it's genuine scumhunting on your part. The part I don't like is the overly defensive stuff. Like, calling your wagon imbecilic because there are other players who are doing the same that you were doing and were not voted. It doesn't read like a town reaction to votes. It reads like frustrated scum.

Sesq 132

What has Revan done differently than Friend to justify the null-town and null-scum reads? I feel like they are playing very similarly.

Doom 136

The content presented by Friend was very, well, non-content. It was almost two random phrases with no explanation behind them. Do you feel like it was enough to make you unvote him?

UD 142

My problem with Magna first post is that I don't think the content he was analysing was good enough to make this strong reads behind them. Almost like he was making these big analytic posts just to appear town.

UD 146

again, what did you see on Revan posts that make him town? I see only random sentences, followed by no reads. Is there something I'm not seeing here?

[lucca261]

Friend 153

So this reads are pretty bad. Funny that you mention null-scum reading lurkers, as you are kinda lurking.

But I don't actually think Friend is scum, and I'm kinda concerned that scum is trying to wagon him, trying to exploit him for his playstyle. Don't like this.

Superhans 152

Waiting on that readslist.

Revan 156

Why are you town reading me? I feel like I know what are you doing, but I kinda feel like you are going to get lynched for it.

UD 154

I feel like, because of the hydra you might don't want to answer this, but is your read on Revan meta-based? I don't know how you get to this conclusion without meta.

Superhans 172

Do you scumread me? I don't like how all your posts are about me, and you are not voting or openly scumreading me. This is scummy.

Superhans 173[/b]

The Magna post you are referring to was on the start of page 2. My post was on page 4. There is definitely more things to deeply analyse on page 4 than page 2. This is scummy as well. Taking things out of context to try to put pressure me without even voting.

[mozamis]

catching up. had a brief skim and whover said "lets carry on how we were, it obviously got scum worried", i agree with.

[mozamis]

i dont mean we refuse to change our minds -sesq was beginning to look bit more town to me -but in general, we must have been going in the right direction?

[Sesq]

Also add a third possibility, the scum just want to mess around.

A possibility indeed. It did get our attention (and yours).

Sesq - Town lean

As already discussed sesq's vote in post 57 on doom could be seen as opportunism, him being a newer player makes this a possibility of a scum post. The manner he responds to this pressure in post 64 leads me to question this however. The "why me fry me" is concerning, however the aggression makes sense from a frustrated town perspective. Which leads me to the following question:

Do you have any scum-games you can link us to sesq?

If evidence can be found for him playing aggressively as scum would erase the above and make it entirely null.

His reads are okay, nothing that really strongly leans either way but I'm giving them ever so slight town points as they are valid and do somewhat make sense. He's showing some indication of thought in post 137, and 188 is acceptable. I do like how he's stating that he's open to explaining himself wherever though. The final comment on lucca in 212 is also brutally honest, and something I really struggle to see a scum player making (especially a newer one). Newer players have the tendency to want to seem completely justified in all that they do as scum, often obsessively so. Either that or they do this apathetic opportunistic thingy. I'm willing to lean town on sesq.

Yeah. I've only had one complete game on this account and it was as scum, over here, and the mafia PT is here. Daychat was enabled, and my approach was "I'm basically gonna be town, I'll bus the fuck out of everyone." I won in the end. The aggressive play here was from me being gone for an hour and coming back to a wagon of 4 on me. It's like when you're trying to speak but everyone's speaking over you and letting their fantasies get out of control about what horrible things you do. That of course wasn't literally the case but the anger was sourced from there.

Sesq 132

What has Revan done differently than Friend to justify the null-town and null-scum reads? I feel like they are playing very similarly.

This question got me going. Then I remembered Revan has actually done things, in comparison to old Famicom over here.