In Memory

[The DEO]

Setup Information:
1) The setup is confirmed as having 11 Town-Aligned players and 3 Scum-Aligned players. The 15th player's alignment may be {Town, Scum, Serial Killer}. Traitors and similar count as scum.

This is from the first post.

Please stop suggesting bastard things when the first page says not bastard. (I.e. Alignment changes, mod lying about setup etc)

~~Math

[Postie]

The first page of the setup says the only 3P possible is an SK.

Oh.

Unless you wish to assume scum shot Lycanfire.

Why would he have been vanillised if scum didn't plan to shoot him?

Also I don't follow the rest of what you're saying.

[The DEO]

Drealmerz practically screamed he was vigging Lycanfire.
So assume Drealmerz is Town vig or SK (not group scum).

This means scum likely knew Drealmerz was going to shoot Lycanfire.
At that point shooting Lycanfire is a waste.

So this means we have two nights where scum have no kill.
We have a one shot BP claim.
What is the most logical answer?

~~Math

[Postie]

idgi.

[The DEO]

Oh right no night one.

Okay one night with no scum night kill.

So either RM was 1shot BP and loved which I doubt or zefiend is 1shot BP or zefiend is trying to figure out how many shots the BP zefiend scum shot has.

The latter is stupid they would scumread the BP of which we are not.

~~Math

The most likely answer is scum shot zefiend unless someone CCs.

[The DEO]

idgi.

Postie explain the ways there are no night kill in a game of mafia:

1) BP
2) Doctor
3) Roleblocker
4) Jailkeep

Any others off the list?

~~Math

[Alisae]

Commuter

[The DEO]

My crumb detector tells me that the doctor didn't hit the right target so eliminate that.
No one has claimed roleblocked so eliminate that.

BP and Commuter would end up with scum knowing who they tried to kill and failed. Right?

[Postie]

6) Hider
7) Babysitter
8) Scum choosing to No Kill

[The DEO]

6) Hider
7) Babysitter
8) Scum choosing to No Kill

6 >> Why would anyone hide behind Lycanfire?
7 need to look up Babysitter

8 is nonsense because they missed a kill on N1 I don't believe they don't NK on N2.

So somehow the kill was stopped or scum shot Lycanfire.

~~Math

[Postie]

No one has claimed roleblocked so eliminate that.

Why would scum claim to have been roleblocked though? How would they even know they were roleblocked if their kill failed because of a roleblock and they weren't using another night action?

[Postie]

6 >> Why would anyone hide behind Lycanfire?

I don't think you understand how hider works. If they hid behind Lycanfire they would be dead. Obviously they would have hidden behind someone else.

[The DEO]

Babysitter I doubt because of my crumb detector.

If scum don't claim roleblocked and were then they will draw significant ire from the slot that did roleblock them.
We would have seen someone drop a vote for "reasons" until that slot posted when there wasn't an NK.

In essence if someone was roleblocked we should be seeing that claim especially with the lack of kill.

~~Math

[The DEO]

6 >> Why would anyone hide behind Lycanfire?

I don't think you understand how hider works. If they hid behind Lycanfire they would be dead. Obviously they would have hidden behind someone else.

The Hider has the ability to target one player each night. It is a Weak role and as such will die if it targets mafia. In case the hider targets a town-alligned player, he or she will be untargetable for all other roles. However, that does not mean the hider is entirely safe: should the person he or she is hiding behind get shot, the hider will be shot as well. This only goes for a nightkill.
Variations

A variation of the hider applies the targetting when hidden not only on nightkills, but also with other night actions. With this variation, for example, a cop targetting the player the hider is hiding behind will get two results, for his target, and the hider.

[The DEO]

If scum target a hider and fail the argument still stands that scum would know they submitted a kill and that player didn't die.

~~Math

[Postie]

If scum target a hider and fail the argument still stands that scum would know they submitted a kill and that player didn't die.

~~Math

So...?

[The DEO]

Example assume RC is a hider:

Assume scum shoot RC.

Assume RC hides behind Town.

Then when scum see RC alive they would try to get RC lynched because they couldn't kill RC.

~~Math

[The DEO]

The BP claim means that zefiend is very likely Town who was shot during the night scum had no kill and could shoot or Lycanfire was shot by scum and the claimed vig.

~~Math

[Postie]

Then when scum see RC alive they would try to get RC lynched because they couldn't kill RC.

This is a silly argument. I've had a kill fail before as scum and I did not instantly go after that person the next day.
Sometimes people are targeted for a nightkill exactly because scum don't know how to get them lynched.

[Postie]

What makes you think scum

haven't

been pushing for their missing kill target to get lynched anyway?

[The DEO]

Postie I don't want an apathy lynch on someone I think might be town though. If we can turn this around we might be more likely to get a scum lynch. It's also worth thinking about whether RachMarie would replace out as scum in this situation. boring wanted to put something in the thread more than what RM had to make it worthwhile and idunno if their dropping off after that was more like, holidays and not knowing how to go hard to save the slot rather than a scum dropoff of "well I tried" y'know?

I actually tend to agree with KTS a lot and I think I should go for it if it's something we're both feeling because it's confirmation I'm on the right track and he's pre good at reading ppl as well.

{Postie, KC, DEO}
{Lycan, boring, Deimos}
{zefiend}
{Creature, drealmerz7, Vaxkiller}
{Creeps}
{Kuroi, Gamma}

Holy shit this post came out of nowhere. If I'm reading the tiers right, you have Lycanfire and boring as Town-leans?

Something is pinging me about your progression of these reads. Like, there's a lot of speculation involved:
- KC is being 100% truthful about KTS thing
- (presumably) buying Lycanfire's claim & story
- RM replacing out for strategic reasons
- boring's effort being AI

These are just the things that jump out at me so if you could clarify/explain, that'd be great. I'm going to ISO dive you in the meantime because honestly I've been skimming a lot of your posts (when the game was moving much faster).

I don't have set categories for the tiers. Higher up is the more townie I think someone is.

I think I'd talked about KC earlier, but boring summed that up nicely. KC's claim isn't something I would have imagined her to think up on her own, and she has convincingly given content that I believe has indeed come from KTS.

Lycanfire's claim...he hasn't really claimed as far as I'm concerned. Apart from the delayed death thing or w/e it was. My change on Lycanfire is that he's acting so damn disillusioned that it's actually making me think he's town by this stage. I have less confidence in that one because it's entirely tonal but I rarely see scum that can convincingly pull off the "let's antagonize the townies after my head further" line of attack that he's taking here. More often it comes from town that think they're being pushed by scum.

I'm not entirely sure what you're saying about the RM replacing out for strategic reasons. I'm saying that I believe it's more likely she's replaced out as town than scum, given she clearly thought she was being run up for being V/LA rather than for her content. As scum in that situation I'd expect some bullshitting to put out something, which RM would have an easier time doing than as town where she has to actually read what's being put in the game and think about what that means with regards to someone's alignment. That or more lurking while waiting out her lynch. It's obviously not a strong indicator because it could just boil down to her not wanting to play anymore as either alignment but it's a supporting factor.

If boring's effort alone was AI then I'd still think she's scum, because she put in that small amount of effort and dropped off. I'm reading her as a newbie that had one good scum game, replaced into a bad slot, and is trying to make the lynch at least worth something without thinking she can turn it around. It's the trying to make the lynch worth something that gave me pause to think about because as scum in a slot that you don't think you can save you don't want to draw more associates. You just want to go quietly into the night, so to speak, unless you think that putting out some good content will save you, in which case I'd expect boring to have fought this harder rather than put out some content then go "welp not much more to do here" attitude-wise.

Re tiers/Lycanfire: your tonal read on Lycanfire is not something I can debate, however I will say that in the game I played with him as Town he was much more composed than here. The surprising thing about your reads is that he and boring are on the same tier.

Re KC: if she's scum then coaching is a thing. I'm asking you to look at it in the context of KC's voting patterns which don't perfectly align (IMO) with her thought processes.

Re RM: exactly!! why I am suggesting it could be strategic - you are considering that only a townie would be frustrated by being wagoned for fake V/LA-ing.

Re boring: it sounds like you still scumread her so what's the appeal of a flash wagon on Kuroui?

Pedit Postie because we are none of those things and weren't roleblocked and unless there was a bus driver who hit scum and switched scum and Lycanfire then I don't see a world where zefiend is group scum.

[The DEO]

What makes you think scum

haven't

been pushing for their missing kill target to get lynched anyway?

Well except half of one....But then we would have to bend the rules of something to make that work.

~~Math

[Postie]

Still not following. How does that quote or anything you're saying change this...?

This is a silly argument. I've had a kill fail before as scum and I did not instantly go after that person the next day.
Sometimes people are targeted for a nightkill exactly because scum don't know how to get them lynched.

[The DEO]

Because in a game where scum are behind on kills already a person who is unkillable for whatever reason is literally the name to scum's existence. I don't see a game where scum don't try to lynch who they couldn't kill.

Look at who zefiend was pushing before N2.

VOTE: KlingonCelt

I think we need to look at Zefiend'S D2 reads for answers.

[The DEO]

~~Math*