Open 669 - Nightless Vengeful Mayhem [Game Over]

[Superhans]

Alright, exams are over. I'm really really sorry for the apathy coming from this slot, I've been really busy and mafia just wasnt a priority.

That's going to change over the course of today though.

Wguert if ur free can u give it reads on UD and ur reads on Moz.

[Superhans]

VOTE: Mozamis

Not a discussed vote with my hydra partner ftr, but im sure mukuro will agree given 701 and 702.

so you dont actually give reason for voting me. And this is the most important of your post.
And then you spend a long time discussing theory.
Yeah, these guys are scum.
Lets do this!

Seems over eager to be bussing? No?

[doomfeathers]

can we get a UD lynch, @moi/@doom?

Not yet. I'm not sure who to vote for, and I don't have much evidence against UD other than the maybe-accidental quickhammer.

This reads pretty solidly to me of “MoI said he’s no longer Town so I’m prepping a move into scum for him”.

I did agree with you that he can longer be "conf town" as i sadi he was day 1.

However, I'm not "prepping a move into scum for him". He is the weakest of my scum reads. In fact it was P.O.E s omaybe i should have said null.
Whatever. Focus on getting UD lynched. Wguerts is - like i clearly said - last on my lynch.

Could be backing off in response to pressure. He's still following MoI's lead.

On the other hand I may be wrong about Mozamis...

UNVOTE: mozy
K I'm not so sure about UD being town...
I just read what Lucca said about UD voting Moz but not applying any pressure, which is very compelling but.if this were to be true Moz' push would have had to be ingenuine.

If mozamis is scum, he's shown his skill at faking sincerity anyway.

[mozamis]

or i am sincere.

[mozamis]

FOR FUCKS SAKE I AM TOWN

[mozamis]

LOL SOZ THIS GAME TOTALLY BREAKS ME SOMETIMES

[doomfeathers]

or i am sincere.

FOR FUCKS SAKE I AM TOWN

LOL SOZ THIS GAME TOTALLY BREAKS ME SOMETIMES

Easy, now. I haven't seen your role PM. AtE won't help me decide.

[mozamis]

*slight digression* was thinking about this the other day: AtE "appeal to emotion", right?
Is this meant to be 1) a scum tell 2) or just an internet way of saying "emotional".
Becuase if its meant to be a scumtell, it's total balls. Or used badly.
Town are emotional just as much, if not more so, than scum.

[doomfeathers]

It's a logical fallacy, not a scumtell per se.

[lucca261]

reading now. let's go.

[Superhans]

*slight digression* was thinking about this the other day: AtE "appeal to emotion", right?
Is this meant to be 1) a scum tell 2) or just an internet way of saying "emotional".
Becuase if its meant to be a scumtell, it's total balls. Or used badly.
Town are emotional just as much, if not more so, than scum.

dude ur right emotiions can be NAI, but saying that your emotions make you town doens't change anything.

best way to prove ur town is to catch scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

(expired on 2017-02-04 09:00:01) until deadline.

People really need to be consolidating their votes ASAP.

--

so you dont actually give reason for voting me.

In fact it was P.O.E s omaybe i should have said null.

The entirety of your reasons for who you think is scum is POE really isn’t any reason at all. Why is it scummy for UD to not give reasons and not for you?

And Superhans brought up a point I think need revisited – why shouldn’t we think you are scum given scum haven’t quickhammered you (in line with your earlier reasoning on why Hans was scum for lack of wagon momentum)?

[havingfitz]

My eoD1 suspicions are located at the bottom of Post 380.

I will say I did not care for the UD hammer. I suppose the hammer was going to happen no matter what but the fact it was supposedly accidental gives UD a little less flak then if it had been a definite hammer on town.

Spoiler: --------------Day 2-------------

Page 21:

MOI gives me crap about my entrance to D2.

Wgeurts does a similar lamentation post and promises content.

Wgeurts proclaims Doom town. I hate when people do this. If they are town they should not be this sure of another players alignment.

Why so sure wgeurts?

Revan gives a flippant response to my question about his Hans vote.

Doom does a similar lamentation post. Offers opinion that game will suck if MOI is somehow scum (why can't he be scum Doom?). Gives sane assessment of the Sesq vengekill.

Wgeurts tells Doom he would have venge-killed Revan instead of Sesq.

Doom offers up possibility that MOI could be scum more so than wgeurts.

moz didn't like my D2 post. I know too much. He votes me and apologizes to Sesq.

Doom puts down his masterfully breadcrumbed fake vote on MOI. (mmhmm).

moz immediately comes to "very fucking town" MOI's defense.

Lucca wifom town reads MOI for his D1 mislynch theory. Agrees with me about the FC wagon but shades me for it. ?? Makes some good points IMO wrt UD.

Page 22:

moz states a scum pool of: UD, Lucca, Hans, Revan and Fitz. (I object to the Lucca and Fitz reads btw) By subtraction...this means the moz town pool is: MOI, Doom, wgeurts and moz.

moz says UD is actually null town for Post 491. wtf? So moz scum pool is now Lucca, Hans, Revan and Fitz. (I object to the Lucca and Fitz reads btw) Wait...lucca is townish...so moz s.pool = Hans, Revan and Fitz.

moz says my ISO is quite strong.... So less sure of me as scum. Leaving Hans and Revan (the super bussers?) and someone not in his pool of three?

Revan points out the bussing conundrum he would present if paired with Hans. (So?)

UD shades wgeurts a little. Just a teensy bit. Nothing to be alarmed about.....

Hans questions the moz confident townread on Doom. Good question.

Good UD posting.

Oh darn... the Doom MOI vote gambit didn't work out. And also...have some shade wgeurts.

UD thinking Revan is good scum candidate.

@Revan....

why is attacking your attacker a bad thing if you think your attacker is scum?

Page 23:

moz backtracks on his "confirmed town" sentiments towards Doom when questioned on it. Oh...and MOI is awesome town too. coughcoughbuddybuddybuddycough

moz can't provide counter to MOI's tr on Hans.

@moz...wouldn't the aversion to being the hammer on a mislynch be a good reason for scum to accidentally hammer? smh

@moz...you say you think Revan is scum but you have yet to put a vote on Revan up to this point in the game. ????????

@moz...I don't even know what you are trying to say here....perhaps it will be addressed later in my re-read.

@moz...

why does this scenario where you conclude that Hans is scum not also work the other way and come to the conclusion Revan is scum?

Doom votes me and reveals worst breadcrumb in MS history.

Hans starts the meta dialogue with me and MOI. zzzzzzzzz

moz wants to know if MOI is being a twat.

Page 24:

Good UD posting. Suspects Revan and moz.

Revan...because he's not townreading you. Duh. Looking forward to your analysis.

wgeurts sighting...sans content.

moz accuses Hans of AtE (not seeing it) and asks for opinions on Hans and MoI (too bad there is not a player named Frans in this game).
Hans on D1 seemed like lynchbait (along with FC and perhaps Sesq). On D1 I don't mind so much getting it wrong to eliminate a weak player who is also a bit suspect (i.e. FC)....but I think Hans has been posting better since D1 and atm I lean town towards him. Same lean atm with MOI. He went to a lot of trouble to present his suspicions towards people on D1 (though results were not good) and has been fairly active and pushed his suspects. That is typically townish behavior IMO. Though also IMO is that I suspect MOI is a capable enough player to try and look the same way when he is scum. And why is he still in the game? Why a Hawk DV over a more experienced player...especially one putting in a lot of effort like MOI is. So my gut says MOI is town but my paranoia says he could be scum playing people like a fiddle. I would not vote either of them today. Also and OBTW...I do not think I would consider voting lucca today and prooooooooooooooooobably not wgeurts either. Though D1 wgeurts was more town IMO than D2 wgeurts has been iirc. Though that might be absence related.

Good lucca posting. Aside from the "statement of fact" that MOI is town. If you are town there are no guarantees in this game. Like your read on me at the end of this post...."probably town". That shows a little doubt at least (I am btw). I'll get to my reads list at the end of this post.

Why are you asking me about Hawk?

Also...when you do these long posts can you reference the poster's name and not just link to post numbers when you have a question towards someone? I'm not going to click on every link to a post unless it's addressed to me or wrt a player I'm interested in.

@lucca...I lean town on MOI as well...but how can you definitively anoint him town without some shred of doubt? Is MOI a crap scum player who posts completely differently than he does when he is town?

tl:dr;

confidence is suspect.

Page 25:

Annnnnd Revan is v/LA. So much for that analysis he mentioned in his last post.

lol...and MOI calls him out two posts later.

And Hans surprisingly comes to Revan's v/LA defense a little. If they are both scummy lynchbait buddies bussing each other I am going to applaud them win or lose after this game.

@lucca...If you can't see Hans and moz being scum together then would you vote Doom today? He's 3rd from the bottom of your reads list.

@moz...after accusing Hans (poorly) of AtE he breaks out the AtE on his own behalf. And he only has 1 vote on him at this point. /confusing/

In this post Doom continues to talk about his MOI vote gambit and crappy breadcrumb. And

professes his love fo

.....and states that MOI HAS GOT TO BE TOWN! [my caps] Did I mention confidence is suspect.

Doom......how is MOI's scum game different to his town game?

Oh wait...it might be a secret personal full-proof tell. Any light you can shine on the assertion would be appreciated.


Page 26:

In this post UD defends themselves, I think fairly well, against lucca suspicions.

In this post moz gives the town a little pep talk. Has moz been the most active in the game? Producing a lot of quality content? idnr....

In this post moz does not give a very convincing answer to questions from MOI.

At this point I am not liking moz or Revan...which makes me less suspect of UD then I was becoming. Unless there is just a shitload of bussing/shading going on between scum partners. Granted...UD hasn't voted Revan once and the one time they did put a vote on moz....the votes were reset due to the Hawk kill and afterwards they did not return a vote on to moz. So maybe........... Bussing without teeth.

Page 27:

@moz...in the post prior to this you give one of the reasons you are town reading Revan as the fact he is voting Hans. You then proceed in this post to point out some things about Hans that you find towny. And you unvote him.

If you are wavering in your suspicions towards Hans...wouldn't that decrease your town read on Revan...which is now based on an unsubstantiated "he sounds more honest" assessment from you?

And OBTW....you pressure vote lucca from left field. lol..... Why not pressure me? Or wgeurts? Or Doom? Or not pressure vote and actually vote a suspect....if you have any.

@lucca...this is how I was recommending you link to other player's posts. Disregard my earlier request.

@UD...gut is a thing. If it's always wrong it sucks of course but if you've had some success with it...and in the absence of solid scum tells/suspects....I don't hate when people refer to using their gut. If it happened all the time I would hate it but not in moderation. Annnnnnd in your next post you confirm your suspicions towards Revan who you have yet to actually vote. ???

@MoI...I found this post to be awfully full of yourself. Probably the least town thing I've seen you do (other than your earlier issues with me of course). Why would you presume that you'd be day-vigged while you were on v/LA? This just feels like a big WIFOM pie in the face. ex. Look guys...I'm obviously town and could be killed this weekend so here's what you should do if that happens. And of course nothing happens. whew...dodged that bullet. At least we had your last will and testament. lol......

@Hans...Great points towards UD. And wrt your following post wrt MOI...I do not think he was suggesting he would die by way of lynch. He's suggesting that scum would DV him. Cause he's uber-town. And also...moz is L-3...not L-2 (at this point anyway).

@Doom...I wouldn't categorize UD's FC hammer a quickhammer. iirc we were within reasonable range of the end of day (at least I think we were....). It didn't feel like a QH to me at least. It felt more like a lolhmmer. An oops.....my bad. A hey...this isn't a hammer...this is just an L-1 vote so be careful....wha wha what!!!? And so at this point in the day you fyi us all that you aren't sure what you are doing and you're supposed to re-evaluate your reads? You haven't been doing that since D2 started? WTF?


Page 28:

@Doom...I don't think Revan voting Hawk is AI. Revan is still scummy IMO but the fact he had the lone vote on Hawk at the time of Hawk's death doesn't mean anything IMO. More importantly would be where Hawk's votes/suspicions were. Combined I would assume with a desire to perhaps reset vote counts to eliminate a wagon on a scum player. Moz was the only other player with any heat on him at the DV point. Doom had had a fairly large wagon (L-3) a bit earlier but was in no danger att. So DVA seems of no value IMO.

A Revan sighting...Hans is better...UD is worse. moz is town. gtk. So why is your vote still on Hans?

@lucca...WTF? "yeah Doom is town?" smh head. He could be....but how do you know that so confidently? Though in hindsight....675 was a pretty good post. Leaning Doom town seems fair. But no locks please.

A wgeurts sighting...more to follow.

Page 29:

@moz...so despite my quite nice ISO I am still in your scum pool. Rev is still there (despite no vote ever) and now joined by UD and wgeurts. But your focus is on me and UD. Got it.

UD votes moz and MOI has no townreads...

UD is scum.

Annnd Hans unvotes moz. Does a Hans moz combo work?

D2 Spoiler summary...

Aside from MOI's "woe is me I could die this v/LA" post I still think he is town. "think!" people! Not "KNOW."
I also like what I have seen from Hans so he's been pulled from my lynchbait bucket. i.e. I think he is town as well.
I have to say I think Doom is town. I've gone back and forth a bit on him and while he seems to have been a bit underposting today (I could be wrong)...a few of his posts have really struck me as town.
Lucca seems town to me as well. Everyone else is up for debate as far as I'm concerned.

My read on wgeurts has been hurt by his absence and failed promises to deliver. It's not so much that he hasn't done anything scummy (aside from not delivering on content assurances) so much as he hasn't done anything period. I need to ISO him. But regardless of that...I do not see him being a legitimate wagon today so I will try to sort him out later after hopefully he gets re-engaged in the game.

Revan has done nothing I can recall and has coasted this entire game. The thought of losing to a scum team that contains Revan is very repulsive. I think he is a strong contender to be scum.

UD was solid on D1 iirc but I've had doubts around their D2 play. I didn't like the oopshammer. Despite suspecting Revan most of the game they haven't really done anything about it. I think they are good at crafting posts which tends to have a town feel to it...and I think whoever the hydra members are they seem like competent/experienced players....so I would expect more out of them than we've gotten so far.

moz I'm on the fence about.....I think they have done a lot of suspect things. They are firmly planted in my scum pool and I do not think they are getting out of it. I just have a niggling suspicion that all the paranoid/poorly explained/AtE-esque posting is coming from clueless don't lynch me town. The trouble with that is it puts them on the same level as Revan wrt not wanting to lose and find out they are on the scum team.

With town able to absorb only 1 more mislynch if I'm having reservations about a slot I would want to act on it sooner than later and pick one that might provide the most associative tells. I think moz might have more juice from his lynch (regardless of his flip)...though I think Revan has a solid chance of being scum as well and still provide some decent analysis. But then I look back at moz's posts on pages and can't help myself.

VOTE: moz


This vote puts him at L-2. It will be interesting to see if this draws out the last scum daykill. Is it worth your last shot to potentially only pause a wagon on a partner? Decisions decisions. Or not....

Also...I didn't do this on purpose but I think the above reads are probably in the order I would rate them from town to scum (might flip Revan and UD)...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Revan has done nothing I can recall and has coasted this entire game. The thought of losing to a scum team that contains Revan is very repulsive. I think he is a strong contender to be scum.

Here's my issue with Revan (which aligns with yours for different reasons) - he seems like absolute lynchbait. Bad posting and complete lack of content for two game days.

Yet aside from being occasionally scum-read there is no inclination to wagon him.

Town Lynchbait Revan I would have expected to garner some sort of heat by this point as an easy compromise mislynch. Hell I don't think I can recall anyone Town reading him in a long time.

[karnos]

Vote Count 2.6

Mozamis

(3):

Superhans

, MagnaofIllusion, Ultimate Despair, havingfitz

Superhans

(2): Revan,

mozamis

, doomfeathers

Ultimate Despair

(2): lucca261, mozamis

Not Voting

(1): wgeurts, superhans

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

wgeurts & revan are being prodded.

(expired on 2017-02-04 09:00:01) until deadline.

[Ultimate Despair]

@Moz: Could you talk about why your read on us changed from a town lean (around 527), to the slot you most want lynched? In 702, you stated that the board should focus on fitz and us, but it's super unclear what was driving it at that time, and even subsequent to that the only thing of any substance against us you noted was essentially an OMGUS in 716, and presumably the bit about having nine posts before giving reads in your voting post? Like, before we voted you the "nine posts" bit (which strikes me as the epitome of NAI) was the strongest thing you had? Nothing else in what we'd done BEFORE we voted you made us sufficiently strong scum reads that the board shoudl only focus on us and fitz?

I'll be back tonight (for real this time), will talk more then.

-M

[Ultimate Despair]

PS that "nine posts" thing, if about us, wasn't even accurate (not that it would have been AI even if it was accurate). Junko's LAMIST post about doomfeathers, the fourth post of the game from us, was an actual read.
-M

[havingfitz]

Yet aside from being occasionally scum-read there is no inclination to wagon him

Lol...so what are you saying about his lack of wagonning? That it suggests he could be scum?

[doomfeathers]

Okay, havingfitz has definitely gained town points with me. That post was focused on the entire player pool, not just a few possible mislynches, and I agree a lot with his thinking. Scum, by process of elimination, are most likely Revan, Ultimate Despair, and Superhans; lucca goes along with havingfitz in the "probably not scum" category.

The rest of this post is @havingfitz.

Besides, like I've said, I have a personal tell which says so and hasn't failed yet, for what it's worth.

In most Mafia games I've played, there's a sort of "leader" of the town. I'm not sure exactly how I would define that. D1, I thought it was wgeurts, but it's definitely been MoI lately. I now townread him over wgeurts. But anyway, I've never seen the game "leader" be scum. When I've wagoned them in the past, I've regretted it. I didn't say fool-proof, though. I expect it to be broken sometime. And it's not secret; I think I've at least partially explained it in an earlier post.

But Magna has posted a lot of content, scumhunted magnificently (though not successfully, unfortunately), and generally looked townier than anyone else in the game. It would take something major for me to reconsider my townread on him.

I think we've established that I don't know how breadcrumbs work. Fitz, could you give me some advice? How detectable is one supposed to be, for example? I thought they were supposed to avoid notice until the crumber points them out.

I meant that I had to go back through ALL my reads--pretty much the whole game--and figure out what was really going on. I was certain FC and Sesq were scum and I interpreted other players' interactions with them in that light.

No, you're not wrong about me underposting. I've started a new course and was in time trouble. I'm posting more now, though.

[doomfeathers]

Waitwaitwait, I forgot mozamis. Scum are most likely in the pool of (mozamis, Superhans, Ultimate Despair, Revan).

[Superhans]

Revan is online, heya if u can read this

[Superhans]

Here's my issue with Revan (which aligns with yours for different reasons) - he seems like absolute lynchbait. Bad posting and complete lack of content for two game days.

i'd rather lynch Revan today tbh,
like i know im going to get shit for it, cos it looks like im backing off of Moz, and I have been accused of being partners with him (im not btw @Fitz)
but i think that Revans lurking is deliberate, and scummy, think his previous post was a prod dodge. keeping his vote on me (after saying i looked better (?!)

I have a little time on my hands this weekend.

SH is looking better, UD is looking worse. Moz is town in my gut.

mentions that UD is worse and that Moz is better, y is he not on a wagon? Potentially realises that if he coasts through today with prod dodges (deadline fast approaching) he could get away sticking on me, not being on a wagon that and hence not held accountable to flips.

VOTE: Revan

[Superhans]

will hop off this wagon if it doesn't gain traction, but to anyone who is undecided, i urge u to read Revans ISO, i honestly think he is our safest bet.

[Superhans]

What makes them garbage?

Okay i know my last post was a bit pedantic, but please please please stop being so bait.

This seems rather odd to say either to a scumread as town or to a scumpartner as scum. What do you guys make of this?

If my theory is correct, it would be interesting to see what one does when the other is wagoned. I've been suspicious anyway.

VOTE: Superhans

By the way, Hans, did you change your avatar to match Sesq's just to irritate those of us who reread the thread?

gun to head, who would you kill out of me and Revan?

[Revan]

Going to try and write up a case on UD tomorrow if I have the time.