Timeshift Mafia III [Game Over]

[Tywin Lannister]

'I don't know anything, I understand nothing, nothing makes sense... Oh but comm wouldn't do what he's done as Mafia.' P

Do you think Comm would play way he has as scum? Like is there any actual scum motivation to anything he's done?

All I'm saying is that quite a few things point toward his direction, and his defense is 'bus driver.' Aside from that, if there was a vigi, why haven't they shot anyone? If they have, we have to assume literally the entire game targeted Fitz because... I still can't think of a reason. The only other option is a Nexus or something, which I'm not sure is actually considered normal enough for this game. Not totally up to speed on what roles are normal/abnormal/bastard on this site.

[TTTT]

Clearly we are lynching between Comm and James.
I've been TRing Comm.
and James' play is anti-town.
But James' claim is mechanically more credible
But James' role (if true) is spent.
If James flips scum Comm is NK'd
But that might not be for another night so maybe 1 more result from town!Comm

James' lynch makes the most sense.

[Vifam]

Yeah Comm just looks like he's more town of the two and I don't think he'd play like this as scum

[Tywin Lannister]

Almost, talk to me here. Explain this to me:

1. Claimed JK on Fitz
2. No NK
3. Comm claims Vigi result on Fitz
4. Fitz denies, claims VT
5. No vigi kills
5a. No extra kills N1 or N2
6. James claims guilty on Comm

Do I have everything? Now, riddle me this. Why was there no scum NK? Also, why was there no vigi kill?

Even if we assume the Busdriver/Redirecter claim, the fact remains that there was no NK and no vigi kill. To assume the Busdriver claim, that means ALL of the following targeted Fitz on the exact same night: Rolecop, Jailkeeper, scum, vigilante, Busdriver/Redirecter. That's 5 roles of both alignments targeting the same player. Does that make any sense to anyone? It doesn't add up to me.

Now, there is ONE option that makes this all work in a way that everyone is telling the truth here. One, and only one option, and it takes a hell of a lot of hoop jumping and assumptions to get there. Here's what I've come up with:

1. Busdriver/Redirecter picks Fitz. This is a tricky part that requires the mod to answer which action goes first, Busdriver or jailkeeper. Assuming the Busdriver is first, then Comm's action is on a different person and Ram's action is on a different person. That person is a vigilante. Since the vigi was jail kept by ram, it means their shot didn't go through. What isn't explained is why no scum NK, unless they did actually choose ssbm for some unknown reason. So to reiterate, Busdriver, rolecop, jailkeep, maybe scum all pick Fitz to investigate, jailkeeper, switch, kill on the same night. Otherwise, scum chose ssbm to kill N1, let his lynch go through D2, and so their NK was useless. That seems like a huge stretch, but whatever. It's possible.

That's your only option to make everything work. That's assuming the Busdriver/Redirecter person exists, chose Fitz, and the person switched was the vigilante. In this option, there cannot be a scum Busdriver, because it makes no sense. So that player has to be town for it to work.

So all it takes to prove any of this is for the Busdriver to claim. That's the only option they have here, and so if nobody claims it, then we have to assume it isn't true. To not claim it at this point means either they don't exist or they're really bad scum who somehow redirected town onto town for no apparent reason. So again, there needs to be a claim, since it either confirms town or confirms scum right away.

None of this is taking into account James getting a guilty on comm, which unless there is a Busdriver claim, we should take seriously. For comm's claim to work, a hell of a lot of very improbable things need to have happened. Otherwise, it's simple to assume comm lied and just got caught. Occam's razor points to comm lying, but I'll let everyone read and digest the info first. There may be a Busdriver (they have to be town), but again, we need a claim to confirm. Otherwise, the only real lynch pool here is comm or maybe Fitz if you're frisky.

Otherwise, there was a mod error somewhere. That's the only other way this shit works, and nobody can assume that.

[TTTT]

Like I said
James' claim is mechanically more credible

RE: 5a - Why would you expect extra kills night 1 in this setup?

[TTTT]

Is it possible scum have a 1-shot non-shifted NK that makes them lose their NK the next night?
Think there's a 3rd party, given prior time-shift games
But throwing it out there

[TTTT]

Otherwise, there was a mod error somewhere. That's the only other way this shit works, and nobody can assume that.

or someone forgot to submit a night action
but yeah that'd be a bad assumption to work from

[Vifam]

Thing is for Comm to be scum we didn't really catch him in a lie he literally dug the hole for himself for no reason

[Vifam]

Like he probably could have potentially won a straight 1v1 with James because James isn't widely townread at all, why would he complicate his life like this if he's scum

[CommKnight]

Like he probably could have potentially won a straight 1v1 with James because James isn't widely townread at all, why would he complicate his life like this if he's scum

The worst part is it's true and unless someone who hasn't spoken yet speaks up it makes me look bad.

James is scum that is lying. That is half the equation and will be shown when he flips red!

The other half is trying to figure what happened between Fitz, Ramcius and me. It is POSSIBLE that Ramcius is lying and he is a mafia busdriver.

Either way, James flip today will show a lot. Those who keep defending him will definitely be on the hook tomorrow.

Other than that, unless we got someone willing to step forward and explain some more of what happened, then it's 1v1 me vs James. We could've ended this charade of his D1 when I counter claimed him or D2 when he picked the worst target. Now we do it D3 when he lies about a result.

[Tywin Lannister]

Like I said
James' claim is mechanically more credible

RE: 5a - Why would you expect extra kills night 1 in this setup?

The 5a part was added with the 'no vigi kills.' Obviously, a vigilante shooting someone would've made it two kills on one of the nights. Maybe a vigi isn't timeshifted or whatever. Basically, I'd assume there would've had to have been two kills on either N1 or N2 (especially) for a vigi to really be proven.

[Tywin Lannister]

Like he probably could have potentially won a straight 1v1 with James because James isn't widely townread at all, why would he complicate his life like this if he's scum

Idk. I'm just pointing out the things that had to have happened for it to all work out. I'm not really going into his motivations, because I never use that in Mafia. The motivation of everyone is pretty simple: town: lynch scum, scum: not get lynched. Everything else boils down to that.

[Tywin Lannister]

Like he probably could have potentially won a straight 1v1 with James because James isn't widely townread at all, why would he complicate his life like this if he's scum

On the flip side of this though, why would James 1v1 Comm like this too? James practically announced it yesterday. He never needed to. Scum!James could've picked anyone and/or nobody to both claim he would investigate and also give a guilty result on. Pretty much, James has been on comm since D1, and comm has been on James since D1. At this point, if either one is scum, we can question why they'd do it. It wasn't necessary, and of comm flipped town, James will be getting lynched immediately the next day. It doesn't really make sense for scum to put themselves in that position.

Now Comm could do the same for James really, but he didn't. So if we lynched James and he flipped town, all Comm could say is 'must be the bus driver.' If he thought the bus driver switching him personally would give James a different result as well as him, then it would make sense for Scum!Comm to do what he's done. He's set the table for a bus driver claim after a James lynch. Make sense?

[Nero Cain]

TTT please spoonfeed me about why James' claim is more mechanically sound?

[Tywin Lannister]

Comm: why aren't you trying to figure out what happened too? A bus driver claim here could confirm multiple townies and scum, while otherwise, it pretty much has to mean you're lying. That doesn't concern you? One claim could bust the game wide open, but without one, you're the only lynch choice based on the evidence. If it were me, I'd definitely wonder why I got a vigilante result on a VT who thinks I'm scum (even if he were vigi and lied, he's ensuring your death), another cop claim got guilty on me, and the person I claimed to investigate also was jail kept. In all of that, you say it's the jailkeeper who could be lying.....that still doesn't solve the problem of you getting a vigi result on a VT. Without a vigi kill on either night, that claim also looks doubtful. Without a Busdriver claim, it pretty much ensures your lynch. So there are two players who could either confirm or deny your lynch, and you choose to pick one that has no bearing on the outcome?

That seems pretty odd to me. It's as if you expect there to be no bus driver or vigi to prove your story. So you pick the player that doesn't matter if they're lying? Is that a confusion tactic? Ram JKing Fitz doesn't matter to the truth of your claim except to help it, and only if a bus driver claims. If Ram lied, then there's still no explanation as to why no vigi kills in two nights.

[Nero Cain]

Like he probably could have potentially won a straight 1v1 with James because James isn't widely townread at all, why would he complicate his life like this if he's scum

i agree with this btw.

I also agree with Comm being town. I need to write this out.

[James3]

TTTT isn't even trying to hide that hes mafia anymore. I'm leaning mafia on Vifam, although I can't rule out him being a really really awful VI.

Reminder, Comm is claiming to have confirmed as town someone (Fitz) who counters his night results claim. So Comm is confirmed scum.

[Almost50]

@Tywin:

First of all, you're making the same faulty assumption I made about the JK preventing their target from being investigated. It turns out that the current "standard" role is to only protect the target from kills + prevent them from taking any action (i.e. RB them).

However, EVEN IF the variant (Alien) was used it does NOT prevent the redirector from redirecting Comm's action to X (X being the Vig), as it has NOTHING to do with fitz himself.

Having established the "possibility" of there being a redirector AND a Vig would result in this very situation and give those exact results, let's now examine the situation:

1- If you were Scum and wanted to out a potential Cop early, what would you do?
2- Again, if you were Scum and felt like fake claiming, would you claim Cop or Role Cop? In other words, which would be easier to fake?

3- If you were crazy enough to fake claim a ROLE COP on DAY ONE no less, why would you ALSO fake a result at the nearest possible chance? I'd reckon claiming having been RB'd or forgetting to submit action, or even claiming your target got NK'd would have looked much more convenient and far less suspicious. No?

4- IF there ARE a redirector and a Vig, it's almost a given Scum already know who the Vig is and they will be shot dead tonight.

I think we have 2 possibilities here:

1- James faked his claim to out at least one investigative and he got TWO. The Watcher with non-delayed action was a priority to take out and Scum can't shoot every night or they need to use delayed and direct shots in an alternating way or whatever that has prevented them from shooting Comm dead on N2. They thus decided to sacrifice one of their own for the strongest TPR we have, Not a bad bargain if you look at it objectively.

2- The other possibility is Scum have BOTH a redirector and a Framer, and they used the former to redirect Comm's action to a random Townie just in case he checked one of them, and used the latter to frame Comm himself knowing James had checked him in precise. Why redirect Comm? Because if he claimed a guilty and got lynched that guilty will follow.

Now if Comm is not lynched Scum will have a slight problem deciding whether to shoot him or the Vig tonight, but I suspect it would be the Vig with Comm redirected again. Alternatively they can shoot the vig AND redirect his shot to Comm, which is why I called on him to hold hold his fire until we lynched the redirector.

Again I urge you to try and put yourself in both James' and Comm's shoes and imagine what you would/would not have done if you were Scum in either slot. James' play doesn't come from Scum unless they had an elaborate plan like the one I'm proposing as the first possibility, but Comm's play and string of actions/claims does NOT come from Scum at any level. Period!

OK.. I got one scenario where ALL three of then can be Scum together, You want to hear a Mathblade-class theory??

[Almost50]

And I had requested to wait on Yume/Slysly/Fuzzy/X to come in and post too, because one of then COULD be the redirector in which case Comm should be on the clear. If nobody claims redirector THEN we can conclude there might not be one, but that would leave us with the big question: WHY did Comm pick fitz to fake a result on him? If Comm is Scum AND there is no redirector then fitz is Scum by necessity. But then, why would Scum!fitz confront his Scum buddy's result on him? It also brings us back to WHY James is still alive when it was all but a given he would use his check on "Scum!Comm"???

[James3]

There is a profound lack of intelligence on the part of some posters.

That a course of action would seem implausible for scum to take is a perfectly good reason for scum to take such a course of action. So these "Comm is too scummy to be scum" arguments are really really dumb.

[Nero Cain]

a50, if there's a scum redirector do you think they'd claim?

[James3]

If there's a scum redirector then scum knows who the vig is (supposing counterfactually that Comm isn't lying). In that case, vig has no reason not to claim.

[Almost50]

OK, I've decided to entertain everybody with my world class moonlogic (I AM a crazy nurd, but I promise you I'm not THAT crazy. Well, at least not always)

So, Scum have deduced there is a Vig in play since there are not additional NKs for 2 nights. The SK would have killed someone on either nights, so they suspected there to be a Vig (more likely) or no other kills but theirs. (Now why the Vig didn't kill still is up to you to figure out. They may have been inactive or they may have forgotten to submit action, or they maybe of limited shots or they may have a restriction to their shot.. whatever).

Anyway, Scum decided to pursue this matter and get to the bottom of it. If there's a Vig they should have claimed by now, right? So this is all a big theater by three great actors who are all Scum. They decided to sacrifice one of their own in order to out the Vig if existent!!

Can I claim a Silver medal next to Math now, please? I mean, I sure did beat Titus on this one (at least give me that).

P.S. Ahem, even pursuing my moonlogic fantasy; I fail to see why Comm calls for the Vig NOT to claim either!!!! I can't even put a case to mockingly frame the guy! I SUCK!!!!

[Almost50]

a50, if there's a scum redirector do you think they'd claim?

Of course not!! But let's hold on to the hope it was a TOWN redirector, because if it was Scum then the Vig is toast already!!

[Almost50]

Ok, F-this! I AM IT! I AM THE FRIGGIN' VIG!! Alright??
I'm 2-shots, both delayed and can't shoot on consecutive nights. I fired once last night so I can only fire again on N4. My predecessor apparently wasn't even playing so he left me the 2 shots intact.

Everybody happy now?? Now let's move on. COMM IS TELLING THE TRUTH, Goddammit!