Timeshift Mafia III [Game Over]

[Almost50]

So the missing kill N2 is one of three possibilities.
- Mafia kills are non-consecutive (But why? What else is against us?).
- Mafia kill was blocked/target doctored/protected or target even immune.
- Mafia decided to not shoot and cause speculation intentionally.

Me and my moonlogic!

How about: Mafia redirected your action to me AND shot at fitz? That way you do return a result (on me) and they claim you visited fitz so you killed him. They lynch you and -depending on your result- decide whether I was a worthy NK. They got screwed both ways by the JK on fitz. (Boy I LOVE thinking waaaaay out of the box).

[Almost50]

Not Chara
SlySly
Vifam
Elena Fisher
Tywin Lannister
XnadrojX

^ One of the above 6 are the redirector/bus driver. As they did not out yesterday when it was the very real possibility Almost50 or I could eat rope and they'd know the results were switched, it's safe to assume that they are indeed a mafia role.

I'll exclude Chara and Tywin from being Scum at all at this point. I suggest we lynch in the remaining 4. I prefer Sly. If he flips Scum we lynch Elena. If he flips Town then it's XnadrojX + Vifam.

In fact, put simply: it's Sly+Elena or XnadrojX+Vifam for me at this time.

[havingfitz]

Vifam I haven't had any reason to consider as scum until A50's remarks
this morning and a look over the voting. Nero and James both stayed
off the Vifam wagon D1 when their votes would have secured a mislynch
on town!Vifam. This pushes me into the scum!Vifam camp.

Why SlySly over Vifam A50?

[havingfitz]

And can you explain your scum pairings?

[Ramcius]

Not Chara
SlySly
Vifam
Elena Fisher
Tywin Lannister
XnadrojX

^ One of the above 6 are the redirector/bus driver. As they did not out yesterday when it was the very real possibility Almost50 or I could eat rope and they'd know the results were switched, it's safe to assume that they are indeed a mafia role.

I'll exclude Chara and Tywin from being Scum at all at this point. I suggest we lynch in the remaining 4. I prefer Sly. If he flips Scum we lynch Elena. If he flips Town then it's XnadrojX + Vifam.

In fact, put simply: it's Sly+Elena or XnadrojX+Vifam for me at this time.

why not Fuzzy? His posturing about no claiming today is exactly same what i told him after his claim early D1, then answer was - he didn't thought about it, it was really forced, keeping in mind we have no claims today

[Almost50]

Solid town: Comm, A50, Not Chara
Likely town pending stuff: Ramicus
Suspect in most to least order: SlySly, Elena, Xnadro, Fuzzy, Tywin
Voting: Vifam

VOTE: Vifam

This looks like a VERY town-minded readlist, and it has my lynch pool 4 members as the 4 top suspects. I can overlook Ram being put above Tywin as it's a minor detail, but it's more or less similar to my own read list.

[Almost50]

Unlynchable: Not Chara, Tywin Lannister, CommKnight,
Almost Unlynchable: TheFuzzyLogic99,
Not Today Lynch Pool: Havingfitz, Ramcius,
Acceptable Lynch Pool: XnadrojX, Elena Fisher,
Primary Lynch Pool: Vifam, SlySly,

[Almost50]

What did FuzzyLogic claim?

VT

[Almost50]

Vifam I haven't had any reason to consider as scum until A50's remarks
this morning and a look over the voting. Nero and James both stayed
off the Vifam wagon D1 when their votes would have secured a mislynch
on town!Vifam. This pushes me into the scum!Vifam camp.

Why SlySly over Vifam A50?

I was mislead by my own remarks into thinking Sly would give us more info, but having thought it over and considered what went through my mind w/o being typed at the time it's all the same to me. Sly, Vifam, Elena or XnadrojX. Any flip of those gives us the 2 remaining scumsters.

[Almost50]

And can you explain your scum pairings?

Not w/o going back to do LOTS of reading to remember why I put those remarks. I mean, that IS the idea behind me putting down remarks, so as not to do that much rereading with each flip.

[Almost50]

why not Fuzzy? His posturing about no claiming today is exactly same what i told him after his claim early D1, then answer was - he didn't thought about it, it was really forced, keeping in mind we have no claims today

I'm not TOTALLY excluding him, but nearly so. As his name implies, he has such a FUZZY LOGIC you can't really explain his actions. However, he does feel like the Town!Fuzzy I've played with just recently in Steven Universe II.

I'll give Chara some time to read that slot separately though as they were the only other player in that game from this one's player list. If Chara can confirm this is Town!Fuzzy I'm willing to move him to unlynchable.

[Ramcius]

VOTE: SlySly

let's give a try then, interactions with James felt weird, and his wish to get lynched D1 could be explained to have James on team

P-edit: fair enough

[havingfitz]

Almost Unlynchable: TheFuzzyLogic99,

In the hopes of increasing my town pool.....why?

[havingfitz]

Almost Unlynchable: TheFuzzyLogic99,

In the hopes of increasing my town pool.....why?

Disregard...I see your reply to Ramcius. Not sufficient for me att.

[CommKnight]

So this is purely a VC analysis.

(Note: I updated the current player in that slot so we can compare THEIR slot to interactions of their previous members).

- D1 when I was voting James, both XnadrojX and SlySly slots voted James.
- D1 both Elena Fisher and Vifam slots voted XnadrojX's slot.
- D1 James voted SlySly's slot.
- D1 Nero Cain slot votes for XnadrojX's slot.
- EoD D1 vote count shows both James and Nero Cain not voting for Vifam who would've been lynched if they had voted.

- D2 James starts on SlySly and Nero starts on Fuzzy
- D2 Nero Cain moves to vote Not Chara's slot.
- D2 SlySly is voting James.
- D2 James switches to vote Not Chara's slot, now both James and Nero Cain are voting for Not Chara.
- D2 Vifam and Elena Fisher are early adopters of my wagon on SSBM.
- EoD D2 lynch shows both Nero and Tywin moving to help lynch SSBM.

- D3 Nero starts out voting Not Chara's slot again.
- D3 Elena Fisher and Vifam are early adopters to pushing Jame's lynch through.
- D3 Nero moves to bus vote James.
- EoD D3 lynch shows that after pulling off, Nero replaces his vote on James to hammer him.

From this (purely vote analytical) analysis. I'd be comfortable saying Vifam and Elena Fisher would be scum partners if either is scum. I'd say Not Chara is town. I'd even say XnadrojX and SlySly look town based off votes and who've flipped as scum/town.

Possible 5th mafia, but I think 3rd and 4th mafia are either XnadrojX and SlySly or Vifam and Elena Fisher. We don't have any claims in these 4 and their voting patterns seem to point at second duo being it.

Also based off the two confirmed scum not mislynching Vifam D1.. that further points at their pair being it.

VOTE: Vifam

[CommKnight]

So to reiterate my entire read list into an easily readable form.

Town: Not Chara & Almost50
Town Lean: Havingfitz & Tywin Lannister
Neutral: TheFuzzylogic99 & Ramcius
Scum lean: SlySly & XnadrojX (if Vifam & Elena Fisher aren't the pair).
Scum: Vifam & Elena Fisher

Although this all assumes no third party active. If there is a 3rd party. I'd consider Tywin, Fuzzy & Ramcius for 3rd party role (whatever it is).

[Not Chara]

after looking at fuzzy's ISO, i can't say definitively that he's town. but the reasoning for scumreading him isn't convincing either, this is pretty classic and NAI for fuzzy, as Almost said.

Almost, et al: thanks a lot for the catchup. when i have time later i'll try and look at every slot.

[Not Chara]

how was there a kill on night 1? is it possible the mafia's kill would have normally taken effect night 2, but they timeshifted it to hit immediately? that would explain the lack of kill on night 2.
it's possible i'm missing a claim or mechanic sonewhere.

[Almost50]

If there IS a 3P it'd be likely a mere Survivor, in which case I'd encourage them to claim. Scum don't want to kill Survivor over Town at this point, and neither does Town want to lynch Survivor over Scum, so they're safe. This will help us further narrow down the lynch pool, and we will only consider lynching the Survivor claim if we can't win in the next 3 lynches.

For now, I am waiting to see whether Vifam or Sly get the bigger wagon to join it. Also, if either has anything to say they had better say it now.

Also, a point to ponder on: XnadrojX & Sly have yet to post today. I wonder if they're unaware of the day start (I personally didn't receive a notification) or if they're scum together (against my better judgement) and are sitting it out for as long as they could.

P-edit:

There are 2 types of shots in play: Timeshifted resolves on the same night, and normal resolves on the next one. My slot could have killed on N1 AND the kill would have flipped at the start of D2 if my predecessor decided to use a timeshifted shot on N1.

[Ramcius]

how was there a kill on night 1? is it possible the mafia's kill would have normally taken effect night 2, but they timeshifted it to hit immediately? that would explain the lack of kill on night 2.
it's possible i'm missing a claim or mechanic sonewhere.

in previous games SK had not delayed 1-shot kill, just like A50 had 1 delayed and 1 not delayed shot, so mafia used not delayed kill on N1, which was resolved same night, then used delayed on N2, which was resolved N3

[Ramcius]

If there IS a 3P it'd be likely a mere Survivor, in which case I'd encourage them to claim. Scum don't want to kill Survivor over Town at this point, and neither does Town want to lynch Survivor over Scum, so they're safe. This will help us further narrow down the lynch pool, and we will only consider lynching the Survivor claim if we can't win in the next 3 lynches.

For now, I am waiting to see whether Vifam or Sly get the bigger wagon to join it. Also, if either has anything to say they had better say it now.

Also, a point to ponder on: XnadrojX & Sly have yet to post today. I wonder if they're unaware of the day start (I personally didn't receive a notification) or if they're scum together (against my better judgement) and are sitting it out for as long as they could.

P-edit:

There are 2 types of shots in play: Timeshifted resolves on the same night, and normal resolves on the next one. My slot could have killed on N1 AND the kill would have flipped at the start of D2 if my predecessor decided to use a timeshifted shot on N1.

Xnadroj V/LA till sunday written in mod notes, so i wouldn't expect him coming soon

[Not Chara]

right, but you're not claiming that shot, so it had to have been the mafia. if they timeshifted night 1, there's no missing kill by my understanding. no night 2 kill because mafia chose not to tineshift it, and instead submitted a normal kill which hit night 3.

pedit: ok, so it looks like everyone already knows what happened.

[havingfitz]

how was there a kill on night 1? is it possible the mafia's kill would have normally taken effect night 2, but they timeshifted it to hit immediately? that would explain the lack of kill on night 2.
it's possible i'm missing a claim or mechanic sonewhere.

in previous games SK had not delayed 1-shot kill, just like A50 had 1 delayed and 1 not delayed shot, so mafia used not delayed kill on N1, which was resolved same night, then used delayed on N2, which was resolved N3

If you get this probability why were you sk/scum reading me?

[Ramcius]

how was there a kill on night 1? is it possible the mafia's kill would have normally taken effect night 2, but they timeshifted it to hit immediately? that would explain the lack of kill on night 2.
it's possible i'm missing a claim or mechanic sonewhere.

in previous games SK had not delayed 1-shot kill, just like A50 had 1 delayed and 1 not delayed shot, so mafia used not delayed kill on N1, which was resolved same night, then used delayed on N2, which was resolved N3

If you get this probability why were you sk/scum reading me?

i'm not psychic, i couldn't know A50 killed 2 ppl tonight, so once he claimed to kill 2 of them i switched my vote to Fuzzy from you and wasn't SRing you since then

[Almost50]

right, but you're not claiming that shot, so it had to have been the mafia. if they timeshifted night 1, there's no missing kill by my understanding. no night 2 kill because mafia chose not to tineshift it, and instead submitted a normal kill which hit night 3.

Your guess is as good as any. But then why didn't they also use a timeshifted kill today? We can try to speculate about the mechanics all day, but will still fall short at the end until probably the end of the game.

We may expect 2 Mafia kills resolving tonight though and thus 2 corpses showing up at the start of D3 if what you say is true. Or we could expect there to be a mechanic giving scum 1 normal and 1 timeshifted kill every 3 days, so they used both shots up and couldn't shoot on N3. I really don't know what to expect, but I'll give you a hint already (in case I'm the one to die tonight): Read my role PM carefully when I do flip.