I've spent a bit of time considering the setup. I'm still not sure it makes sense to keep CommKnight alive. I'd like to discuss it.
I think we can be pretty certain that CommKnight is Scum or Cop. If he is Scum, he was about to be lynched, so why not claim Cop? Nothing to lose; only upside. If he is Cop, his explanation about changing his play and intentionally drawing some heat as Cop makes sense too. I'm not sure where I put the probabilities on each of these, but I think that Scum CommKnight would fake claim there. Seems like a strategy with little downside. So CommKnight is 1/7 roles, 6 of which are Scum, 1 of which is Town.
We don't lynch him if keeping him alive gives us information that will determine his alignment anyway. And this might be the case. By keeping him alive, he's going to have to give us scan results every day. If one of his scan results ever turns out wrong, we lynch him at that point cause he's obviously scum.
But how likely is it to ever happen that one of his lynch results flips wrong? If CommKnight is a Wolf, he can provide results on his partners. That's safe. There are only two players in the game who he could possibly provide an incorrect scan on. Pretty good odds of him never implicating himself. If he is Mafia (likely cause he wanted to out Cop), his scan results will never be wrong.
Another way that keeping him around gives us information is that, if he is scum, he might be killed by the other faction. But if he is a Wolf, he will be protected by Wolf Doc and can say, "Welp, I guess Wolf Doc must have wanted to keep me alive." If he is Mafia (most likely cause he wants to out Cop), nobody is actually going to want to kill him, and he can say "Welp, I guess Mafia thought Wolf Doc probably wanted to keep me alive."
I don't think that Scum CommKnight is going to be killed any time soon.
There is really one reason I can think of that would lead us to believe we should not lynch CommKnight. That reason would be that the real Cop, right now, has a clear dominant strategy of CCing CommKnight's claim and has not done so. Let's consider that. If Real Cop CCs, he has a decent chance of surviving as long as Wolf Doc and Town Doc survive. But that is not guaranteed. It's true that Wolves like Cop because Cop helps find Mafia. But also Cop gives Town a Town Clear, which is very anti-Wolf. So I don't think it's necessarily true that Wolves want to keep Cop alive. Doc would probably stay on Cop as long as Doc is alive. But with 3 NKs, there is about to be a lot of bloodshed. Cop might want to stay hidden for a bit longer, even with the CommKnight claim.
I don't know...
I'd like to hear a discussion about this. I'd like to hear something more than "Ugh, read the setup, it's obvious we don't lynch CommKnight."
If CommKnight was scum, the cop would have counterclaimed. As such we can assume CommKnight is scum. There's no real need to make this more complicated than it needs to be.
In post 547, CommKnight wrote:Then look at my wagon before I outed. Make a case. It's not all town, that's for damn sure.
I hate this comment from CommKnight.
@CommKnight, you yourself said that you were perfectly trying to draw fire before you outed, right? So you think it is alignment indicative for folks to be on your wagon before you claimed? That does not make sense. Please explain.
@Balki, your entire wall there... what the fuck is that? HAVE YOU EVEN READ THE SET-UP? There is no town doc. Only Cop, Seer and Vig.
As to your last post there. Really? It's a mislynch, of course they'll be on it. They can't afford to avoid a scummy person and it flip scum without them on it, it only deters night kills. Not them being on the wagon to mislynch it.
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Comm is uncc'd. Please shut up and talk about something else.
If Comm isn't cop then real cop should CC now. I'm not going to deal with analyzing your late game claim because you failed at doing a shitty roleswap.
In post 547, CommKnight wrote:Then look at my wagon before I outed. Make a case. It's not all town, that's for damn sure.
I hate this comment from CommKnight.
@CommKnight, you yourself said that you were perfectly trying to draw fire before you outed, right? So you think it is alignment indicative for folks to be on your wagon before you claimed? That does not make sense. Please explain.
What
This is like standard procedure
Its rare that town wronglynches without some pushing from scum
It happens but It doesnt mean that wagons are the best place to start looking
In post 556, CommKnight wrote:@Balki, your entire wall there... what the fuck is that? HAVE YOU EVEN READ THE SET-UP? There is no town doc. Only Cop, Seer and Vig.
As to your last post there. Really? It's a mislynch, of course they'll be on it. They can't afford to avoid a scummy person and it flip scum without them on it, it only deters night kills. Not them being on the wagon to mislynch it.
So be a dick to me and maybe I'll shut up.
Lack of a Town Doc just makes the case for lynching you more compelling. Wolf Doc is not necessarily going to protect Town Cop, which means a CC here for real Cop is very risky.
As to your second paragraph, I have no idea what you're talking about? To what "last point" are you responding?
What I'm saying is that it's not clear whether Real Cop should CC or not.
If you think it's super obvious that Real Cop should CC, please 'splain so all us five year olds can understand.
People are testy about this subject. You've got a brilliant "rising star" town treasure here. If everything is so obvious, feed me with the obvious knowledge.
In post 557, Tenshii wrote:Comm is uncc'd. Please shut up and talk about something else.
If Comm isn't cop then real cop should CC now. I'm not going to deal with analyzing your late game claim because you failed at doing a shitty roleswap.
And the cop would have every incentive to do so given that the wolves will doctor you forever if you come out
In fact now that I think about it thats a bit broken balancing wise if both cop and seer just claim at the beginning and both mobs will simply protect the opposiing IDing role
I mean essentially Comm is gonna make it to end game now as long as the mob doesnt mannage to pop the wolf doctor
In post 556, CommKnight wrote:@Balki, your entire wall there... what the fuck is that? HAVE YOU EVEN READ THE SET-UP? There is no town doc. Only Cop, Seer and Vig.
As to your last post there. Really? It's a mislynch, of course they'll be on it. They can't afford to avoid a scummy person and it flip scum without them on it, it only deters night kills. Not them being on the wagon to mislynch it.
Okay, so your argument is that you were so scummy that "of course scum will be on it"? How about my counter: "You were so scummy that of course town would be on it"?
Best you can do here is to say that being on your wagon is NAI. If it's NAI --
why are we looking on your wagon for scum
?
Please don't curse at me and tell me to shut up. If you're town, put in the effort to make yourself understood, even to people who are beneath you.
In post 567, GameNBurger wrote:And the cop would have every incentive to do so given that the wolves will doctor you forever if you come out
In fact now that I think about it thats a bit broken balancing wise if both cop and seer just claim at the beginning and both mobs will simply protect the opposiing IDing role
I mean essentially Comm is gonna make it to end game now as long as the mob doesnt mannage to pop the wolf doctor
I think this is wrong. Wolves won't necessarily protect Cop. Cop is possibly good for them cause he finds Mafia, but bad for them in that he gives town a clear. Same things for Seer and Mafia. Why do Wolves protect Cop rather than protecting their own? Protecting their own is much more important.
In post 556, CommKnight wrote:@Balki, your entire wall there... what the fuck is that? HAVE YOU EVEN READ THE SET-UP? There is no town doc. Only Cop, Seer and Vig.
As to your last post there. Really? It's a mislynch, of course they'll be on it. They can't afford to avoid a scummy person and it flip scum without them on it, it only deters night kills. Not them being on the wagon to mislynch it.
So be a dick to me and maybe I'll shut up.
Lack of a Town Doc just makes the case for lynching you more compelling. Wolf Doc is not necessarily going to protect Town Cop, which means a CC here for real Cop is very risky.
As to your second paragraph, I have no idea what you're talking about? To what "last point" are you responding?
What I'm saying is that it's not clear whether Real Cop should CC or not.
If you think it's super obvious that Real Cop should CC, please 'splain so all us five year olds can understand.
You just might have a five year old on your team.
Why wouldnt they
Its literally the best move for them, they dont even have to try to aim for the mob at night, as the town will lynch them for them
This is really a stretch to move comm
I'm forced to choose between you being brash incomptent scum or incomptent scum, just calm down balki and re read everything. If you want, I can write up another summary but I think the other posts should do
In post 567, GameNBurger wrote:And the cop would have every incentive to do so given that the wolves will doctor you forever if you come out
In fact now that I think about it thats a bit broken balancing wise if both cop and seer just claim at the beginning and both mobs will simply protect the opposiing IDing role
I mean essentially Comm is gonna make it to end game now as long as the mob doesnt mannage to pop the wolf doctor
I think this is wrong. Wolves won't necessarily protect Cop. Cop is possibly good for them cause he finds Mafia, but bad for them in that he gives town a clear. Same things for Seer and Mafia. Why do Wolves protect Cop rather than protecting their own? Protecting their own is much more important.
Okay i figured out the broken chain in your thinking, I see why you're confused now
Cop just sees whether a person is mafian or not, seer just sees (heh) whether someone is wolf or not
Without clears from both no town is ever cleared by a cop read alone
So yeah it literally beneficial to keep him alive with no downsides.
In post 567, GameNBurger wrote:And the cop would have every incentive to do so given that the wolves will doctor you forever if you come out
In fact now that I think about it thats a bit broken balancing wise if both cop and seer just claim at the beginning and both mobs will simply protect the opposiing IDing role
I mean essentially Comm is gonna make it to end game now as long as the mob doesnt mannage to pop the wolf doctor
I think this is wrong. Wolves won't necessarily protect Cop. Cop is possibly good for them cause he finds Mafia, but bad for them in that he gives town a clear. Same things for Seer and Mafia. Why do Wolves protect Cop rather than protecting their own? Protecting their own is much more important.
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