Newbie 1806 - The Ffery Garden: GAME OVER!

[Miles Edgeworth]

Explain to me what component of RC's expert opinion convinced you to vote for WM.

[Fykus]

I just trust RCs gut on this one. Wanna see where the rabbit hole goes as it were

[RadiantCowbells]

yay

idk I can't relaly put words to it. this is gut.

[WhyMafia]

Lol this is ridiculous

[RadiantCowbells]

no u

[PersephoneSidekick]

I feel like I'm missing something here. Is RC famous for guessing right about scum without being about to explain why or something?

[PersephoneSidekick]

Spoiler: Miles's opening post

Hey y'all.

Apparently, a few years ago, I played here before, using my current email address to register. This account was flagged as an alt, so please forgive my delayed introduction.

I briefly read up on this game when I saw it advertised in the Newbie Queue. My findings from that aren't alignment-indicative, but I was reading the game anticipating I would replace into a bored vanilla town slot (as my past experience has shown that replace-outs in newbie mafia games tend to be players without special roles or abilities who discover they don't actually enjoy the main educated guessing game).

I only made it through about three pages, but in that time, I noticed these things. My apologies if the material covered here is outdated -- I will try to finish catching up by the end of the evening.

[*] Fykus's reasoning for voting for WhyMafia didn't sit well with me. In post #26 he passes it off as the vote being "his shtick." This isn't a good reason in and of itself, but it's acceptable in this context because it's still during the early stage of the game when people are doing whatever they want to stir up conversation; but once the conversation begins to shift out of the "RVS" stage, Fykus finds a reason to stay on WhyMafia that doesn't logically follow. He disagrees with WhyMafia's contention in post #36 that the RVS stage favors mafia, and says, specifically:

I always thought that scum hated RVS because its hard for them to "act" RVS'y or something along those lines.

You just

get more suss

by the minute WM.

I've got my eyes on you.

Emphases mine. "Get more suss" means "get more suspicious," and implies that Fykus already found WhyMafia suspicious. In other words, Fykus is trying to pass off his initial "RVS" style vote on WM as a serious suspicion.
Furthermore, the reasoning Fykus supplies in voting for WM doesn't prove his premise. A person's belief on whether a certain stage of the game favors town or mafia isn't indicative of anything about that person's alignment in a particular game. It's not clear from context whether there's a consensus on this site about whether or not the claim "RVS favors town" or "RVS favors scum" is the correct claim, but it doesn't matter: the worst this can mean for WM is that his belief is

incorrect

. This does

not

make him suspicious in and of itself.

Fykus: Why did you really vote WhyMafia in post #26? ("shtick") Why do you claim that WM "got more suspicious" in post #36?

[*] I liked RadiantCowbells's post #58 entering into the thread, and I liked PersephoneSidekick's post #69. Both were strong entries that showed clarity of thought and touched on what I perceived to be the more important events that had occurred in the thread to that point, and notably both players were not skittish about challenging our IC's play. All three of those factors left me with a favorable impression of both players.

Jumps in fast overinterpreting early posts before he's done reading. Exited town or nervous scum? I'd think that scum would tend to post more carefully and methodically but given he's a newbie in a slot I would already mildly suspicious of, I think we can't discount the "crap I need to contribute fast to be townread" interpretation. I'll put him somewhere in the middle of my reads for now.

[PersephoneSidekick]

Your reference to the God-Emperor tells me we'll get along just fine.

Since you're here RC, I want to talk to you about your suspicion of WhyMafia, because the progression of events around your post #91, when you first expressed suspicion of Fykus, leads me to think that:
- Fykus may be scum
- Fykus and WhyMafia aren't on the same team

Which then makes me fail to understand your suspicion of WhyMafia (which, in fairness, isn't exactly well-explained in your ISO).

Fykus made his early comments about WhyMafia (which I mentioned a minute ago) and parked his vote on WM for a bit. He moved to King Cankles fairly abruptly right before you said you suspected him. I'm assuming that abrupt move was the reason you suspected him? (If it's not, why did you suspect him?)
It strikes me that this sequence does make Fykus suspicious, since he doesn't seem to care about his allegedly serious WM vote very much, but in a way that makes WhyMafia an unlikely partner. I don't see why Fykus would choose to park on a partner during the random voting stage when he could have gone anywhere else. It makes life more difficult for him if, for whatever reason, WM becomes a lead wagon.

I'll concede I'm missing some relevant thread information, and your suspicion of WM comes up after the point where I stopped reading, but from the sequence I

did

get to read, it seems like Fykus, not WM, is the suspicious party from that interaction. What am I missing?

What do you think of the possibility that the two of them put on a preplanned show to "prove" they weren't linked, as a precaution for if one of them was caught? It's kind of extreme but maybe it got out of control? I don't want to lynch WhyMafia today but if we lynch Fykus and he flips scum, I wouldn't necessarily see him as confirmed town.

[PersephoneSidekick]

I really want to hear from Ciara soon.

[Miles Edgeworth]

Spoiler: Miles's opening post

Hey y'all.

Apparently, a few years ago, I played here before, using my current email address to register. This account was flagged as an alt, so please forgive my delayed introduction.

I briefly read up on this game when I saw it advertised in the Newbie Queue. My findings from that aren't alignment-indicative, but I was reading the game anticipating I would replace into a bored vanilla town slot (as my past experience has shown that replace-outs in newbie mafia games tend to be players without special roles or abilities who discover they don't actually enjoy the main educated guessing game).

I only made it through about three pages, but in that time, I noticed these things. My apologies if the material covered here is outdated -- I will try to finish catching up by the end of the evening.

[*] Fykus's reasoning for voting for WhyMafia didn't sit well with me. In post #26 he passes it off as the vote being "his shtick." This isn't a good reason in and of itself, but it's acceptable in this context because it's still during the early stage of the game when people are doing whatever they want to stir up conversation; but once the conversation begins to shift out of the "RVS" stage, Fykus finds a reason to stay on WhyMafia that doesn't logically follow. He disagrees with WhyMafia's contention in post #36 that the RVS stage favors mafia, and says, specifically:

I always thought that scum hated RVS because its hard for them to "act" RVS'y or something along those lines.

You just

get more suss

by the minute WM.

I've got my eyes on you.

Emphases mine. "Get more suss" means "get more suspicious," and implies that Fykus already found WhyMafia suspicious. In other words, Fykus is trying to pass off his initial "RVS" style vote on WM as a serious suspicion.
Furthermore, the reasoning Fykus supplies in voting for WM doesn't prove his premise. A person's belief on whether a certain stage of the game favors town or mafia isn't indicative of anything about that person's alignment in a particular game. It's not clear from context whether there's a consensus on this site about whether or not the claim "RVS favors town" or "RVS favors scum" is the correct claim, but it doesn't matter: the worst this can mean for WM is that his belief is

incorrect

. This does

not

make him suspicious in and of itself.

Fykus: Why did you really vote WhyMafia in post #26? ("shtick") Why do you claim that WM "got more suspicious" in post #36?

[*] I liked RadiantCowbells's post #58 entering into the thread, and I liked PersephoneSidekick's post #69. Both were strong entries that showed clarity of thought and touched on what I perceived to be the more important events that had occurred in the thread to that point, and notably both players were not skittish about challenging our IC's play. All three of those factors left me with a favorable impression of both players.

Jumps in fast overinterpreting early posts before he's done reading. Exited town or nervous scum? I'd think that scum would tend to post more carefully and methodically but given he's a newbie in a slot I would already mildly suspicious of, I think we can't discount the "crap I need to contribute fast to be townread" interpretation. I'll put him somewhere in the middle of my reads for now.

Nonsense. What have I "overinterpreted"? (what does that even mean?)

Why did you feel the need to share your null read with the class?

[RadiantCowbells]

I feel like I'm missing something here. Is RC famous for guessing right about scum without being about to explain why or something?

'guessing'

[Miles Edgeworth]

I just trust RCs gut on this one. Wanna see where the rabbit hole goes as it were

yay

idk I can't relaly put words to it. this is gut.

It appears I owe Persephone an apology.

This

is nonsense.

Fykus, how did you know it was RC's gut, when RC had said nothing to that extent until

after

you posted?

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean it's not exactly difficult to figure out. this is sort of how I deal with gutreads

[Miles Edgeworth]

Your reference to the God-Emperor tells me we'll get along just fine.

Since you're here RC, I want to talk to you about your suspicion of WhyMafia, because the progression of events around your post #91, when you first expressed suspicion of Fykus, leads me to think that:
- Fykus may be scum
- Fykus and WhyMafia aren't on the same team

Which then makes me fail to understand your suspicion of WhyMafia (which, in fairness, isn't exactly well-explained in your ISO).

Fykus made his early comments about WhyMafia (which I mentioned a minute ago) and parked his vote on WM for a bit. He moved to King Cankles fairly abruptly right before you said you suspected him. I'm assuming that abrupt move was the reason you suspected him? (If it's not, why did you suspect him?)
It strikes me that this sequence does make Fykus suspicious, since he doesn't seem to care about his allegedly serious WM vote very much, but in a way that makes WhyMafia an unlikely partner. I don't see why Fykus would choose to park on a partner during the random voting stage when he could have gone anywhere else. It makes life more difficult for him if, for whatever reason, WM becomes a lead wagon.

I'll concede I'm missing some relevant thread information, and your suspicion of WM comes up after the point where I stopped reading, but from the sequence I

did

get to read, it seems like Fykus, not WM, is the suspicious party from that interaction. What am I missing?

What do you think of the possibility that the two of them put on a preplanned show to "prove" they weren't linked, as a precaution for if one of them was caught? It's kind of extreme but maybe it got out of control? I don't want to lynch WhyMafia today but if we lynch Fykus and he flips scum, I wouldn't necessarily see him as confirmed town.

I can't discount the possibility. If you're asking me to do that, though, we won't get anywhere. Possibilities are numerous.

I consider it more likely that mafia!Fykus wouldn't pursue the voting strategy on mafia!WhyMafia that he did, because it increases the likelihood of mafia!Fykus getting stuck in undesirable voting patterns in the event of something unpredictable happening (like townies suddenly finding WhyMafia suspicious), without building town credit for mafia!Fykus in the event that mafia!WhyMafia is caught. There is no plausible reason to believe that Fykus is town if WhyMafia is mafia based off of Fykus's behavior under discussion here.

[Miles Edgeworth]

I mean it's not exactly difficult to figure out. this is sort of how I deal with gutreads

I guess not. Given what you've made available to us, there's not much left for it to be except a gut read.

It's just odd to me that Fykus was so willing to buy into an unexplained read on WhyMafia from someone that I don't believe he should be willing to trust at this stage of the game, given his previous comments about RC:

Im gonna cross my fingers and hope your not and i think if you are and im alive later on that i might catch one of your scum tells but i wont hold my breath. Ill post some proper content after work though and you can judge md for yourself

PersephoneSidekick
WhaleBarnicle
Miles

Cira24
RadiantCowbells
mhsmith0

WhyMafia
King Cankles

here you go, have an unordered read lis. please note rc and mhsmith0 are null because they're experienced and thus harder to read. though rc is probably a town lean atm

[PersephoneSidekick]

Spoiler: Miles's opening post

Hey y'all.

Apparently, a few years ago, I played here before, using my current email address to register. This account was flagged as an alt, so please forgive my delayed introduction.

I briefly read up on this game when I saw it advertised in the Newbie Queue. My findings from that aren't alignment-indicative, but I was reading the game anticipating I would replace into a bored vanilla town slot (as my past experience has shown that replace-outs in newbie mafia games tend to be players without special roles or abilities who discover they don't actually enjoy the main educated guessing game).

I only made it through about three pages, but in that time, I noticed these things. My apologies if the material covered here is outdated -- I will try to finish catching up by the end of the evening.

[*] Fykus's reasoning for voting for WhyMafia didn't sit well with me. In post #26 he passes it off as the vote being "his shtick." This isn't a good reason in and of itself, but it's acceptable in this context because it's still during the early stage of the game when people are doing whatever they want to stir up conversation; but once the conversation begins to shift out of the "RVS" stage, Fykus finds a reason to stay on WhyMafia that doesn't logically follow. He disagrees with WhyMafia's contention in post #36 that the RVS stage favors mafia, and says, specifically:

I always thought that scum hated RVS because its hard for them to "act" RVS'y or something along those lines.

You just

get more suss

by the minute WM.

I've got my eyes on you.

Emphases mine. "Get more suss" means "get more suspicious," and implies that Fykus already found WhyMafia suspicious. In other words, Fykus is trying to pass off his initial "RVS" style vote on WM as a serious suspicion.
Furthermore, the reasoning Fykus supplies in voting for WM doesn't prove his premise. A person's belief on whether a certain stage of the game favors town or mafia isn't indicative of anything about that person's alignment in a particular game. It's not clear from context whether there's a consensus on this site about whether or not the claim "RVS favors town" or "RVS favors scum" is the correct claim, but it doesn't matter: the worst this can mean for WM is that his belief is

incorrect

. This does

not

make him suspicious in and of itself.

Fykus: Why did you really vote WhyMafia in post #26? ("shtick") Why do you claim that WM "got more suspicious" in post #36?

[*] I liked RadiantCowbells's post #58 entering into the thread, and I liked PersephoneSidekick's post #69. Both were strong entries that showed clarity of thought and touched on what I perceived to be the more important events that had occurred in the thread to that point, and notably both players were not skittish about challenging our IC's play. All three of those factors left me with a favorable impression of both players.

Jumps in fast overinterpreting early posts before he's done reading. Exited town or nervous scum? I'd think that scum would tend to post more carefully and methodically but given he's a newbie in a slot I would already mildly suspicious of, I think we can't discount the "crap I need to contribute fast to be townread" interpretation. I'll put him somewhere in the middle of my reads for now.

Nonsense. What have I "overinterpreted"? (what does that even mean?)

Why did you feel the need to share your null read with the class?

It's not a pure null; it has factors for and against. I shared because I was curious about other people's thoughts and I'm bored and want to analyze things. And to hear your response; your defensiveness has been noted, especially given that your most likely scum motivation for that post is defensive.

As for what I mean by "overinterpreted," Fykus was being loose with reasoning at a time when there was little information. I agree that Fykus is scummy and that the things you point out are part of my argument, but you're putting a lot of faith in your reads of the early game before even reading the (probably more useful) later stuff.

[PersephoneSidekick]

Your reference to the God-Emperor tells me we'll get along just fine.

Since you're here RC, I want to talk to you about your suspicion of WhyMafia, because the progression of events around your post #91, when you first expressed suspicion of Fykus, leads me to think that:
- Fykus may be scum
- Fykus and WhyMafia aren't on the same team

Which then makes me fail to understand your suspicion of WhyMafia (which, in fairness, isn't exactly well-explained in your ISO).

Fykus made his early comments about WhyMafia (which I mentioned a minute ago) and parked his vote on WM for a bit. He moved to King Cankles fairly abruptly right before you said you suspected him. I'm assuming that abrupt move was the reason you suspected him? (If it's not, why did you suspect him?)
It strikes me that this sequence does make Fykus suspicious, since he doesn't seem to care about his allegedly serious WM vote very much, but in a way that makes WhyMafia an unlikely partner. I don't see why Fykus would choose to park on a partner during the random voting stage when he could have gone anywhere else. It makes life more difficult for him if, for whatever reason, WM becomes a lead wagon.

I'll concede I'm missing some relevant thread information, and your suspicion of WM comes up after the point where I stopped reading, but from the sequence I

did

get to read, it seems like Fykus, not WM, is the suspicious party from that interaction. What am I missing?

What do you think of the possibility that the two of them put on a preplanned show to "prove" they weren't linked, as a precaution for if one of them was caught? It's kind of extreme but maybe it got out of control? I don't want to lynch WhyMafia today but if we lynch Fykus and he flips scum, I wouldn't necessarily see him as confirmed town.

I can't discount the possibility. If you're asking me to do that, though, we won't get anywhere. Possibilities are numerous.

I consider it more likely that mafia!Fykus wouldn't pursue the voting strategy on mafia!WhyMafia that he did, because it increases the likelihood of mafia!Fykus getting stuck in undesirable voting patterns in the event of something unpredictable happening (like townies suddenly finding WhyMafia suspicious), without building town credit for mafia!Fykus in the event that mafia!WhyMafia is caught. There is no plausible reason to believe that Fykus is town if WhyMafia is mafia based off of Fykus's behavior under discussion here.

Part of what I'm saying is that Fykus's voting pattern is already suspicious and it involved a quick switch away from WM. I think it's just an opportunistic switch between two different townies, but if RC has evidence against WM, I'm not comfortable using his association with Fykus as a disproof. I really wish mh or somebody would tell me if RC is as good as he thinks he is.

[PersephoneSidekick]

So the context of all of this is that I'm trying to formulate a list of people I'm willing to lynch to avoid a no lynch if we're running out of time. I don't scumread WM but I don't townread him either. I'm trying to evaluate possibilities to decide what to do if this wagon gains momentum and the Fykus wagon falters. Right now I'm digging in, but I'm open to arguments.

[Miles Edgeworth]

Spoiler: Miles's opening post

Hey y'all.

Apparently, a few years ago, I played here before, using my current email address to register. This account was flagged as an alt, so please forgive my delayed introduction.

I briefly read up on this game when I saw it advertised in the Newbie Queue. My findings from that aren't alignment-indicative, but I was reading the game anticipating I would replace into a bored vanilla town slot (as my past experience has shown that replace-outs in newbie mafia games tend to be players without special roles or abilities who discover they don't actually enjoy the main educated guessing game).

I only made it through about three pages, but in that time, I noticed these things. My apologies if the material covered here is outdated -- I will try to finish catching up by the end of the evening.

[*] Fykus's reasoning for voting for WhyMafia didn't sit well with me. In post #26 he passes it off as the vote being "his shtick." This isn't a good reason in and of itself, but it's acceptable in this context because it's still during the early stage of the game when people are doing whatever they want to stir up conversation; but once the conversation begins to shift out of the "RVS" stage, Fykus finds a reason to stay on WhyMafia that doesn't logically follow. He disagrees with WhyMafia's contention in post #36 that the RVS stage favors mafia, and says, specifically:

I always thought that scum hated RVS because its hard for them to "act" RVS'y or something along those lines.

You just

get more suss

by the minute WM.

I've got my eyes on you.

Emphases mine. "Get more suss" means "get more suspicious," and implies that Fykus already found WhyMafia suspicious. In other words, Fykus is trying to pass off his initial "RVS" style vote on WM as a serious suspicion.
Furthermore, the reasoning Fykus supplies in voting for WM doesn't prove his premise. A person's belief on whether a certain stage of the game favors town or mafia isn't indicative of anything about that person's alignment in a particular game. It's not clear from context whether there's a consensus on this site about whether or not the claim "RVS favors town" or "RVS favors scum" is the correct claim, but it doesn't matter: the worst this can mean for WM is that his belief is

incorrect

. This does

not

make him suspicious in and of itself.

Fykus: Why did you really vote WhyMafia in post #26? ("shtick") Why do you claim that WM "got more suspicious" in post #36?

[*] I liked RadiantCowbells's post #58 entering into the thread, and I liked PersephoneSidekick's post #69. Both were strong entries that showed clarity of thought and touched on what I perceived to be the more important events that had occurred in the thread to that point, and notably both players were not skittish about challenging our IC's play. All three of those factors left me with a favorable impression of both players.

Jumps in fast overinterpreting early posts before he's done reading. Exited town or nervous scum? I'd think that scum would tend to post more carefully and methodically but given he's a newbie in a slot I would already mildly suspicious of, I think we can't discount the "crap I need to contribute fast to be townread" interpretation. I'll put him somewhere in the middle of my reads for now.

Nonsense. What have I "overinterpreted"? (what does that even mean?)

Why did you feel the need to share your null read with the class?

It's not a pure null; it has factors for and against. I shared because I was curious about other people's thoughts and I'm bored and want to analyze things. And to hear your response; your defensiveness has been noted, especially given that your most likely scum motivation for that post is defensive.

As for what I mean by "overinterpreted," Fykus was being loose with reasoning at a time when there was little information. I agree that Fykus is scummy and that the things you point out are part of my argument, but you're putting a lot of faith in your reads of the early game before even reading the (probably more useful) later stuff.

Null means nothing. Zero. There are no degrees of zero. If you do not conclude that I am town or that I am mafia, you have concluded nothing. To that extent all other words which contribute to this lack of conclusion have no meaning.

Look at your reasons for why I might not be town:
- You create a false dichotomy: "excited town, or nervous scum"? Why would I be either of these things? I don't have to be "excited" to decide to do some research on a game I intend to replace into, nor do I need to be "nervous" to push a case on someone from the other alignment. It's an empty question.
- You claim, in essence, that I'm being too loose with my reasoning on Fykus, by overly relying on early game posting (calling it "overinterpretation"). You then immediately claim to be using the same argument and rationale that I did as part of your own argument against Fykus. Which is it? Are the behaviors that I pointed out about Fykus insufficient reason to suspect him (and thus not reasonable for you to use in your own argument against Fykus), or are they sufficient (in which case I'm not "overinterpreting" anything)?
- You attribute my questioning of your post to "defensiveness" and say that my "most likely scum motivation is defensive." But how can I be defensive when I've been on

offense

the entire game? I've attacked Fykus's and RC's voting rationale, and I've also now attacked your stretching to a null read. I had no problem with you coming to a null conclusion on me - I had a problem with you

sharing

this without coming to a more definite conclusion.

I see nothing in any of those points that should justify a null read. In fact, you are taking the effort to reach for things that are inconclusive or simply not true in order to maintain that null read. It frankly looks artificial. Why are you trying so hard to find a null read out of someone who suspects the same person you do for as much of the same reasons that you have as that person can, given his limited understanding of the game state?


~~~

Part of what I'm saying is that Fykus's voting pattern is already suspicious and it involved a quick switch away from WM. I think it's just an opportunistic switch between two different townies, but if RC has evidence against WM, I'm not comfortable using his association with Fykus as a disproof. I really wish mh or somebody would tell me if RC is as good as he thinks he is.

That I think is fair. I'm certainly not married to the idea that WhyMafia and Fykus are opposite alignments. It was just the baseline interpretation I had of the way that sequence of votes and posts played out. Certainly, should more evidence emerge implication WhyMafia, I wouldn't consider my observation to be a counterpoint of any serious weight.

[fferyllt]

WhaleBarnicle and King Cankles have been prodded.

[King Cankles]

No need for prod. I'm actively watching. Just confused as hell.

[PersephoneSidekick]

Okay, look Miles. Have you finished reading the thread yet? Because in your first post you said you hadn't yet. Most of my complaints about you are based on you jumping headlong into this argument without reading most of the available evidence. If you haven't read the thread can you do that now before we continue this conversation? If you have read it, can you tell me at what point in this argument you finished? And what your thoughts are on the rest of the thread, like the Cankles argument and all that?

In the meantime, why do you object to my sharing my initial thoughts on a new person before I have a definite reading? I'm part of a team; other people will help me catch scum better if I share my thoughts. Maybe I have a null read because there are arguments both ways. But maybe some of the arguments are better than others; I need people to tell me that. I'm new and half my ideas are probably stupid. Also reactions are useful. Information is good.

[RadiantCowbells]

Idk I'm kind of a caricature of myself right now but I just have no idea what to say wrt why I scumread whymafia

[PersephoneSidekick]

Anyway, I'm going to be really busy for basically the rest of the night, but I'll try to find time to check in every now and then in case something important is happening.

[fferyllt]

aaand