Newbie 1806 - The Ffery Garden: GAME OVER!

[RadiantCowbells]

Should I never update my reads, never change my reads, deathtunnel whoever my first scumread is until they get lynched?

Hell no you shouldn't.

You just went from apparently not caring anymore about WhyMafia and wanting to lynch Cankles's slot, to wanting to kill WhyMafia today.

And look, in fairness to you, it's not

just

you. Peri over there is waffling like moss in a breeze. The rest of the town isn't saying anything, whether they're posting or not. It's just frustrating that nobody seems to know what they want to do, but nobody is also willing to take me up on my vote.

I thought that WhyMafia's 2 posts a few pages ago were outside of his scum range. I reevaluated and found out they weren't so went back onto the scumread.

[PersephoneSidekick]

Jesus, who invited all the scared teenagers to the dance?

If you don't trust your own votes then line up and follow mine. I've got a plan, I know what I want, and that's more than any of y'all can say right now.

Whale promised a post tonight and I'm waiting for it. I will follow yours or not contingent on what he says. How is that not a plan? Have you given up on getting a response already or do you truly feel that nothing can dissuade you from lynching him?

How many times has this guy told us he'll get to it later?

If he does finally deliver then I'll obviously have to take whatever he says into account. But my case is great and he's had several days to do anything to make me wrong, and he hasn't yet. How much longer am I gonna have to wait on y'all to see where I'm coming from?

I'm giving him the rest of today. If nothing has changed when I check the thread for the first time tomorrow, I'm voting him. Satisfied?

[Miles Edgeworth]

Should I never update my reads, never change my reads, deathtunnel whoever my first scumread is until they get lynched?

Hell no you shouldn't.

You just went from apparently not caring anymore about WhyMafia and wanting to lynch Cankles's slot, to wanting to kill WhyMafia today.

And look, in fairness to you, it's not

just

you. Peri over there is waffling like moss in a breeze. The rest of the town isn't saying anything, whether they're posting or not. It's just frustrating that nobody seems to know what they want to do, but nobody is also willing to take me up on my vote.

I thought that WhyMafia's 2 posts a few pages ago were outside of his scum range. I reevaluated and found out they weren't so went back onto the scumread.

I guess I can't really begrudge you that. I just wish we could get WB to L-1 at least to see what people do with it. I think there was something instructive in putting WM to L-1, but I don't know what it really means without putting some other people there too.

[Miles Edgeworth]

Jesus, who invited all the scared teenagers to the dance?

If you don't trust your own votes then line up and follow mine. I've got a plan, I know what I want, and that's more than any of y'all can say right now.

Whale promised a post tonight and I'm waiting for it. I will follow yours or not contingent on what he says. How is that not a plan? Have you given up on getting a response already or do you truly feel that nothing can dissuade you from lynching him?

How many times has this guy told us he'll get to it later?

If he does finally deliver then I'll obviously have to take whatever he says into account. But my case is great and he's had several days to do anything to make me wrong, and he hasn't yet. How much longer am I gonna have to wait on y'all to see where I'm coming from?

I'm giving him the rest of today. If nothing has changed when I check the thread for the first time tomorrow, I'm voting him. Satisfied?

Maybe.

Suppose something does change and gives you an out to vote for someone besides WB. Who is it and why?

[WhyMafia]

I can push Una, but I don't see his scuminess from that page. Willing to wait for whale however.

[RadiantCowbells]

My vote doesn't leave WhyMafia, even to prevent a deadline NL.

[WhyMafia]

RC can I get an apology post game if you manage to get me lynched <3

[WhyMafia]

Actually, can town get an apology


I CANT FIGHT THIS LYNCH BECAUSE IDEK WHAT TO FIGHT BCY ECBWKDDWF

[RadiantCowbells]

RC can I get an apology post game if you manage to get me lynched <3

yes if you flip town which you won't and also I've seen this posture from enough scum so =]

[PersephoneSidekick]

Jesus, who invited all the scared teenagers to the dance?

If you don't trust your own votes then line up and follow mine. I've got a plan, I know what I want, and that's more than any of y'all can say right now.

Whale promised a post tonight and I'm waiting for it. I will follow yours or not contingent on what he says. How is that not a plan? Have you given up on getting a response already or do you truly feel that nothing can dissuade you from lynching him?

How many times has this guy told us he'll get to it later?

If he does finally deliver then I'll obviously have to take whatever he says into account. But my case is great and he's had several days to do anything to make me wrong, and he hasn't yet. How much longer am I gonna have to wait on y'all to see where I'm coming from?

I'm giving him the rest of today. If nothing has changed when I check the thread for the first time tomorrow, I'm voting him. Satisfied?

Maybe.

Suppose something does change and gives you an out to vote for someone besides WB. Who is it and why?

Una, for the reasons I gave in 611. Tldr is that his page 24 is scummy as hell.

[WhaleBarnicle]

This is going to be a real stream of consciousness thing here since I have a fair decent bit to catch back up on and eventually comment on. I've really only parsed through the posts from the start of the day cause I've been busy IRL myself. That being said I saw in some post that someone gave me crap for trying to hide stuff in walls of text so I'll try and just break these up more into smaller posts for readability.

Of course I voted for the biggest wagon. I'm about to get lynched. I'm not sure how that makes me scum? A lynch has to happen in order for us to gain some sort of info. Go ahead and lynch me if you want, but you'll be losing a townie.

I know I'm going way back with this one, but I can't just help but feel like this post was so terrible. I can't be the only one who has forgotten this am I?

I am as caught up on the events that occurred before my arrival as I care to be. Some thoughts:

How did King Cankles go three days at L-1 without being lynched?

Fykus was a constant counterwagon, thanks to PersephoneSidekick and King Cankles leaving their votes on him for the majority of day 1. Fykus, a townie, was the eventual lynch.

This information alone makes KC

unlikely to be mafia

in my view. Fykus was

constantly an option for the mafia to lynch

if KC were a mafia under attack. It took very little for Fykus to go: I didn't even make a formal case against him, just voted him because I found some of his early activity suspicious and had a couple of things I could cite to support it. I didn't pressure him to a meaningful extent or have to recruit anybody to vote for him; he just picked up two more votes relatively quickly and died.

Suppose KC were mafia. If that's really all it took to get the town to swing toward Fykus, why did KC sit for three days at L-1 and a week after that at L-2? That's a long time for the mafia to let one of their own dangle so close to death without doing anything to save him. More likely, to me, is that KC and Fykus were both town wagons. This would imply that the mafia didn't need to do anything, since the vast majority of the day had two town wagons and very little activity in the thread. The mafia had no incentive to hurry up and end the day, since there was so little activity in the thread; in fact, about the only thing they could mess up would involve hammering KC and looking shady in the process.

This means that the mafia are likely among the people who...
- Spent a lot of the day voting for one person: This game stalled out big-time. These environments are very pro-scum. As a result, we would expect townies to be the ones who switched votes multiple times through the day, after the random voting stage ended, as part of their investigating and attempts to break out of the stall. Conversely, scum would want to look interested in any breaking developments, but would not want to be too proactive in discovering anything, since the game state is good for them, and since the worst thing that could happen for them to effect that is to give the town a new perspective from which to consider things.
- Voted outside of the two wagons: The mafia's gameplan in a situation like I suspect we had day 1 (two town wagons in a stalled game) will be to lay low. They don't want to stir the pot and accidentally incite the town out of the stall. They want both wagons to get slowly and ineffectually lynched without significant involvement from either of them. Ideally, they wouldn't even be on the lynched wagons at all, since the default reaction in these situations is to go after the weakest votes on the lynched towns' wagons. Thus, we would expect them to find a reason to be off of the main wagons at the end of the day.

It's for these reasons that I call

WhaleBarnicle

to the stand.

And why not WhyMafia? He voted off wagon during the first day. Like I've said before, many of his posts the first day were allowed him to provide very little commitment compared to the content that he was producing.

As for other comments on this post. I went back and checked some numbers, and while Cankles stayed at L-1 for three physical days, he was only at L-1 from post 143 (mine) to post 169 (RadCow's). 26 posts in a game that you admitted yourself stalled out. Hammering without intent is a serious scum tell, and no town would do it. If there were even a single scum on the wagon hiding in plain sight, after getting the heads up of intent it would be too easy to unvote to either keep the day going, or because of Cankles' answer, or for any other BS reason. Then, sitting at L-2 on Day 1 isn't that big of a deal either I don't think, and I don't think that scum would really be too worried about this with other wagons forming as well. All I'm saying is that while these are all really good thoughts, I don't think they really save the slot from being scum.

WhaleBarnicle:
1. Now that KingCankles has had several days to ruminate over the results of day 1, has checked into the thread since day 2 started, but hasn't yet posted anything, how do you feel about his behavior? You did say here that you were going to watch him for how he chose to develop the game state in day 2.

Yeah, and to be honest he didn't perform. Hell, he even got replaced. I'm not sure if that means he just got frustrated and ragequit, got busy IRL, or just lost interest.

2. Given my argument from voting behavior above, do you maintain your suspicion of KingCankles?

See above quote. HE made this slot suspicious. I haven't really delved into his replacement's posts yet.

3. Given the late shift toward Fykus and away from KingCankles,

why did you pull your vote for him and vote yourself

, thereby ensuring your primary suspect had no way to get lynched?[/b]

Again, I said at some point that this was more for humor/frustration than anything else. It was pretty clear by the time that I made that post that the Cankles wagon was going nowhere.

Does this answer all your questions from this post once and for all?

RC I need something to work with. If you're going to tunnel me, can you at least wait until you formulate something that I can defend against? In addition, why don't you search for my "partner" until you can make a genuine case. You're just wasting time and giving an illusion that you're contributing.

Here that last sentence really puts me off. Tonally, it feels very scummy. Even suggesting that RadCow stops focusing on him and tries to find suspicion elsewhere is a really cheap way to divert and allow for a possibility of redemption later in the day.

On to page 17

[WhaleBarnicle]

Also since people are online, can someone post a real quick vote count that's current?

[WhaleBarnicle]

Also also, I'm past the point where RadCow already claimed to be a BP: has literally anyone considered the fact that was a lie? I know that another PR could claim right then and there to prove him wrong, but considering that the only other role that is possible in this setup is Doctor, I don't think that would actually happen.

If a doctor came forward and claimed, their power would literally be useless as they would undoubtedly be targeted in the night and killed. What good is that then unless doctors can indefinitely protect themselves in the night (can they?)?

I think RadCow is town, and I don't necessarily think he is lying about his PR, but I wonder why nobody has brought this up by this point. If it has and I haven't read it yet, sorry lol

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.8

The most mundane of flowers can look incredible in the moonlight.

WhyMafia

(2): RadiantCowbells, UnaBombaH

UnaBombaH

(1): WhemeStar

WhaleBarnicle

(1): Miles Edgeworth

Not Voting

(3): WhaleBarnicle, WhyMafia, PersephoneSidekick

Deadline: July 23 Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2017-07-22 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[RadiantCowbells]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaa

[WhaleBarnicle]

Pg 18 and onwards here:

And then I am undecided
But it's either whale or miles

This feels so awkward to me. I put him at L-1, and then suddenly I'm a top contender for scum even though he hasn't been looking at me practically the whole game.

How can you not make a reads list this late in the game? Are you just trolling WhyMafia?

Just refreshing memories on this one. If answered later in the thread then just ignore this.

WM: RC's opinion counts for something. Tone looks increasingly bad to me but that's probably me being impressionable so I'll just fold it into RC. Other than that, no evidence really. Scummier than most other people I guess.

Wheme: Flippant votes, opportunism and no content. Not even doing that good a job trying to look busy. Trollish self vote. And like all of Ciara's very few semi-contentful posts were scummy too. Seriously, lynch this slot.

VOTE: WhemeStar That's L-1, at least until he takes off his stupid self-vote.

I can see how RadCow could see the line about WhyMafia would seem sympathetic as a team. Peri would seem indifferent/slightly on the wagon if WhyMafia flips scum, but it's pretty lazy and I feel like Peri is smarter than this if they were scum together.

That being said I can also see where Peri is coming from with his view of Wheme? Not totally on board but at first glance this seems like not terrible reasoning I guess.

I'm really not not sure what to make of the banter between Wheme and WM association wise. It's weird for scum versus scum but it's kind of weird for anybody? Okay lets think about all possibilities.

Both scum: WM unconvincingly accuses Wheme thinking that it will appear to clear Wheme after he gets lynched and flips scum. Wheme halfheartedly appears to fight back for appearances. It's plausible at this point that Scum!WM would feel already caught and might be primarily focused on protecting his partner with weird WIFOM shenanigans. With Wheme already under suspicion too, the situation is sort of desperate. I can see it, but it's still weird.

WM scum, Wheme town: WM cornered, and Wheme looks like good divert target because he's playing so unhelpfully. Wheme responses continue previous playstyle. This is plausible but depressing because it means we have even more ineffective townies than we realized. WM's partner would probably be Miles in this scenario, because if you look at ISO he kind of defends WM a lot.

Wheme scum, WM town: WM is real frustration and honest reaction to Wheme's scummy posts. Wheme tries to flippantly shrug off pressure. This feels like the most solid possibility. Partner could still be Miles, but only by POE. I wouldn't want to rule out Cankles for example; he's hardly cleared.

Both town: Real frustration on both sides, but then who the hells is scum? Miles + Cankles?

Conclusion: So a lot of what this is telling me is to take Miles more seriously as a candidate, because there are a lot of scenarios for him. I still think that the priors are highest for Wheme, so I'm keeping my vote there for now.

RC, who do you think WM's partner is?

The bolded part that I added honestly seems to me like the most serious opportunity.

[WhaleBarnicle]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaa

Is there a reason you are so sad?

[RadiantCowbells]

lynching whymafia is hard

[WhaleBarnicle]

No time to really post now, but Cankles is still absent. Also I'm digging this WhyMafia wagon, but I'm not going to vote in case he is town and mafia pull a quick hammer to send us into the night again. Intent to put at L-2? Is that even a thing?

Peri is still looking town, RadCow is looking town too, Wheme and Cankles are pulling me in two directions for the other mafia though. Oh, and Miles seems good too. I thought that the Salami slot was towny before he even came in, and he's been pretty insistent on pushing leads which is good in my opionon. Obviously nobody is out of the question entirely (other than me, who is obv v scum guyz), but that's my quick gut check on reading through from the end of last night so far.

The only thing I can think that was directly addressed to me was why I voted for myself at the end of yesterday (I think Miles asked me?). I thought that was pretty clearly a joke? It was obvious that Cankles wasn't going to be a thing and I wasn't going to be able to add much to the discussion before the deadline so a nice silly self vote wouldn't hurt anyone. Does that clear anything up Miles? Also guys, feel free to shoot some questions my way during the day tomorrow, tomorrow night I'll read through them and say what I think.

I'm late on your offer at the end here, but I figure you'll have plenty of time to indulge me before the phase ends.

Obviously your self-vote wasn't a serious declaration of guilt. That's not what I'm getting at.

You say "it's obvious Cankles wasn't going to be a thing," but Cankles was sitting at L-1 for three days and always had some number of people willing to kill him. The shift toward Fykus at the end of day 1 was very plodding and reluctant on the part of the town. Nothing about this situation strikes me as being obvious that Cankles would get off the hook. If you really suspected him to be mafia, then the shift toward Fykus should have motivated you to push

harder

in the thread to get Cankles killed instead, since it represented a real danger of losing the lynch you wanted. Why did you not only do this, but also pull your own support?

Didn't strike you as obvious that Cankles was getting off the hook? He literally sat there on day one with people directly telling him to post and said "...meh, no real content sry". And then nothing happened. By the end of the day, there was what, maybe one person voting for him other than me? Was I the last one? It doesn't even matter because for all intents and purposes, if he were scum, he got off the hook alright. I lost the lynch I wanted, and wanted to see how he would respond on day 2 (which he didn't.).

In terms of fighting harder for the lynch: what good is it for me to stand on the table in the room and repeat myself over and over to nobody listening? Sorry but I have better things to do with my time, like be on vacation IRL. I never really understood the Fykus wagon, but I also didn't really have sufficient time to analyze why he was town in my eyes, so I elected to comment on it little in the event I was wrong. By that point, I was curious to see what was going to happen during the night and wanted to get into Day 2.

Allow me to remind you of your own prior statements near the end of day 1:

I'd also like for you to explain to me your shift in suspects priority from day 1 to day 2. You have consistently had Cankles and WhyMafia as your top two suspects. For day 1, you had Cankles above WhyMafia. For day 2, WhyMafia was a higher priority for you. Yet, your description of Cankles's play in day 2 has been as such:

So yeah...If Cankles could post more tham hmm that would be nice.

Alright, I wanted to wait a little bit before I posted to see if he would produce anything substantial, and he didn't. So....
Cankles: Still just no content...makes me very sad.

In other words, nothing about Cankles has changed. This I agree with. Tell me then, why did your priority change, if your primary suspect did nothing to become less suspicious since yesterday?

Can't squeeze blood from a rock my man. If I needed to wait for Cankles to produce some content, I may as well go after WhyMafia. The posts there were to signify that he hadn't left my radar overnight, which would look very suspicious would it not?

[PersephoneSidekick]

People keep using "he" for me in posts and it's very distracting. It's weird; everybody got it right on day 1. Is it the obviously male lion in my avatar?

[RadiantCowbells]

I will never fail to call you a she if you vote with me =]

[WhyMafia]

Here that last sentence really puts me off. Tonally, it feels very scummy. Even suggesting that RadCow stops focusing on him and tries to find suspicion elsewhere is a really cheap way to divert and allow for a possibility of redemption later in the day.

I stand by what I said. I didn't know RC was conf town, and it made no sense for him as town to be just wasting our time with "BOOOO WHYMAFIA IS SCUM"

[WhyMafia]

This feels so awkward to me. I put him at L-1, and then suddenly I'm a top contender for scum even though he hasn't been looking at me practically the whole game.

What? You didn't even look at context? You're just trying to cast shade. It's something called PoE and why I said

undecided

[WhyMafia]

idk but these two posts by Whale seem fake

[RadiantCowbells]

FAKE NEWS!

ALTERNATIVE FACTS!