Newbie 1806 - The Ffery Garden: GAME OVER!

[PersephoneSidekick]

Okay, you're going to hate me for this Miles but I think the burden of proof is back on you. It's plausible that he took that long to answer, and the responses don't seem unreasonable. I look forward to watching your argument :p

[PersephoneSidekick]

Anyway. Whale, are you up for lynching Una/Cankles with me?

[PersephoneSidekick]

I will never fail to call you a she if you vote with me =]

Wouldn't that count as a out of game transaction :p

[RadiantCowbells]

Yeah, this is gonna be a town loss.

[WhaleBarnicle]

FROM PAGE 20

Why whalebarnicle

Also whalebarnicle is there a way to spoiler your posts or make more posts but not as big. I hate wall posts

Noted. Can't make promises, I'm a get it all out there type of person, but I'll try cause you asked really, really nicely.

Spoiler because it is not game relevant:

It's predicated on the assumption that you know what people could/would do in certain situations. Something I feel important to understand in terms of mafia play is that most of the time you don't know why people do things.
Most of what people do is not done for any obvious scum/town motivation or often any motivation at all, it's just what they happened to do at the time. Even players like me who rigorously plan out (moreso as scum but) games from top to bottom.

You have created one narrative by which Barnicle is scum who did certain things. There are also plenty of narratives by which he is town and did the same thing.

Not "knowing." Predicting what they should do, if they are rational actors who have a certain set of objectives in mind to win the game.

Obviously people are imperfectly rational and simply have an x% fail rate at doing the rational thing. All that means is that sometimes you will make a logical read by correctly following the rules of logic and applying them to your suspect's behavior and nonetheless be incorrect. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't pursue aforesaid logical reads.

Tell me then, if you don't practice a method like mine, what method

do

you practice? Because with all due respect to Your Towniness, that method has been very opaque this game, at least from my seat.

Have you taken a Myers-Briggs test? PM your results if you have/take one after this, I have a hunch we would get the same results based off of how you wrote this!

I'm going to respect that he acted optimally

Thanks for the benefit of the doubt at least lol

FROM CURRENT THREAD

This feels so awkward to me. I put him at L-1, and then suddenly I'm a top contender for scum even though he hasn't been looking at me practically the whole game.

What? You didn't even look at context? You're just trying to cast shade. It's something called PoE and why I said

undecided

Didn't even look at context? I'm literally posting as I read the thread real time, how much context do you want me to consider? I'll go back in case I missed something but come on.

WhyMafia is getting frustrated. That's not hard to tell. Do you guys think he's a frustrated townie or scum scraping the bottom of the barrel? I'm saying now that if nothing changes my mind in these next few pages of reading, my votes going right back on WhyMaf

[WhaleBarnicle]

Anyway. Whale, are you up for lynching Una/Cankles with me?

I haven't seen enough of Una to really say yes or no to this, and part of it does depend on WhyMaf's reaction and flip so how about you put this down in pencil for now and we'll check up on it later?

[WhaleBarnicle]

And we couldn't even pull off the lynch by ourselves right now anyway, only up to L-1

[PersephoneSidekick]

Look, you said yourself that Una was Why's most likely scumpartner. Doesn't that still give you a good chance?

[RadiantCowbells]

If I can't pull town together enough to get a lynch on scum two day phases in a row there's no way town is going to end up lynching scum and that's just facts.

[PersephoneSidekick]

And we couldn't even pull off the lynch by ourselves right now anyway, only up to L-1

Sure but there are other people I can try to convince. RC might be a longshot, but maybe if your win your argument with Miles?

[RadiantCowbells]

I compromised yesterday. I'm not changing again.

[WhaleBarnicle]

You guys are letting scum waste your time on pre-flip associations because I'm town. This discussion is absolutely useless if you all are speculating her alignment based on me

To be fair, this wasn't actually all that bad. It is consistent with him saying that he's town, and he is right in saying that if he does flip town then the Peri scum argument goes down the drain pretty quickly. (See? it's not all just confirmation bias, I can agree with you!)

I'd ask for a reason but 506 was just so terrible that vote doesn't even need justification

Explain.

:checkmark: That being said I do want some reasoning for that vote now.

Just hammer him

These kind of actions always worry me.

This is either scum playing VERY carelessly and see-through, or a townie making questionably aggressive remarks.

In any scenario, WHY would you do this WhemeStar?
Town only takes advantages from longer days, so wanting the day to end quickly is very scummy, even in cases where scum would be 100% locked.

We should take the time we have and try to build cases for WhyMafias scumpartner (in the event he flips scum).

I had a revelation, so I re-read most of the game.

I really feel like we have a good situation here as Town.
Going for the worst case scenario, should we lynch WhyMafia and he flips town, we still have one conf.town to lead us, and by PoE I feel we could pretty much clear Perse. (at least to me he is susp. mainly by proxy)

To me, Wheme and Whale seem like the obvious duo in the scenario where WM/Perse isn't scum, but RC seems to have a VERY strong townread on Whale.
Meaning Miles/Wheme then?

I'm not sure how RC reads this slot with Cankles playing very quiet almost all game, and then me liking to post a lot and try to deduce shit, but from a VT perspective this situation in game doesn't seem bad.

I'll sheep RC today, but my suspect list differs on Whale/Miles, for now, at least.

You guys are letting scum waste your time on pre-flip associations because I'm town. This discussion is absolutely useless if you all are speculating her alignment based on me

Is this scum trying to bait newbies into quicklynching himself?
But then why didn't he just selfvote to end the day quickly?

A question I have for RC/Miles/Whale: What goals could be driven through this post by WhyMafia?

All these posts seem really forced to me. Every single one of them talks as through the perspective of town. Lots of "we as town" and "from a VT perspective" type of stuff. Town doesnt really talk like this, and it's a nice way to potentially frame what someone might think when they are reading this post. Sort of like some sort of subliminal suggestion almost? I know people always say they are town, but this seems different and I think raises some suspicion. Thoughts ne1?

[WhemeStar]

whale if you scumread whymafia vote him please

[PersephoneSidekick]

whale if you scumread whymafia vote him please

??

[WhaleBarnicle]

VOTE: Unabombah

sorta think Cankles was scum now

Feels good when I think something is sketch and then I see this at the top of the next page.

VOTE: Unabombah

sorta think Cankles was scum now

I was waiting for this to happen.
I'm used to getting targeted for my upfront play.

I'll turn it to you RC - in a world where you didn't claim BP, how would you convince people about your alignment?
From a newbies perspective your playstyle seems very scummy and destructive, I for one doubted your alignment before you claimed BP.

I think the first part of this question is actually good. If you took away the BP, I think that this would be a very different game with RadCow. That being said, we have BP, and he himself says its confirmed. Why consider it? Seems like it's a diversionary thing to me.

Wheme if scum
First off, let's look at his entrance.
We have an immediate push on RC. However, the reasoning is minimal at best, and the read is extremely weak. Immediately after RC claims BP, Wheme says he'll sheep him. Almost too quickly .. Then he posts that a CC should happen. I find it weird that someone who scum read RC would immediately say he'll sheep him before asking for CC's. It seems to me like that read was completely fabricated. Almost to discredit himself? Then he can say he had wrong reads, and trusts RC's judgement to make the right decision (which you shouldn't do even if you're town). That way he shelves responsibility for a mis-lynch. And the rest of his posts just tunnel me. As much as it pains me, at least RC looks at other issues. Let's look at Wheme's thoughts ...
oh wait he has none cause he's sheeping RC

Anyways, in post 414, he states he thinks I am scum. Then in post 458 he says his vote was only due to sheeping RC. I feel like that's another scum slip. He knows I am town, so wants to dive off responsibility. Then in post 514 he says "hammer him".
A) Either he's incompetent townie
or
B) Scum who is impatient
Post 510 doesn't even make sense logically, he just seems to be kissing up.

Please someone tell me how Wheme could potentially be town

Are any of these proof that he's scum, or just an ineffectual town? Now of course, these actions DO seem like it would be more likely for scum than they would be for town, but this all just seems SO BAD for scum to do. Even someone totally inexperienced in this game would realize that these sorts of things are just making them asking to get lynched. This is why I feel like this read is weak; it's picking off the low hanging fruit and calling them obvious.

My own thoughts on UnaBombaH is that he's kind of sketch, but not really enough to overcome my townread of Cankles.

Weird cause you just asked me to power lynch the Cankles slot. I'll reserve judgement until I totally catch up.

[WhaleBarnicle]

whale if you scumread whymafia vote him please

No cause this is exactly why he suspects you as scum so hard. I'm catching up first, then thinking about it.

[Miles Edgeworth]

Okay, you're going to hate me for this Miles but I think the burden of proof is back on you. It's plausible that he took that long to answer, and the responses don't seem unreasonable. I look forward to watching your argument :p

Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not sure I have much of one. His defense is pretty impressive and I especially like that he immediately had a coherent direction to go after responding to my concerns.

UNVOTE: WhaleBarnicle

[WhaleBarnicle]

So in other words, if Cankles were scum with someone who replaced in, those two would have had no prior planning to lean on in order to try to save him from the noose in day 1?

I accidentally quoted the wrong post, but this idea of scum not being able to talk to each other is an interesting one. Generally in a newbie game I would expect town to replace more than scum cause I think people would be disappointed in getting a "boring" slot, but with how many people replaced it is likely that someone is scum in that list.

RC. What do you think about a KingCankles/Unabombah + GinsengTea/WhaleBarnicle team? I recognize pre-flips aren't really useful, but I've been suspicious of WB this whole day cycle, and I couldn't help but notice that

WB replaced in for GT during the height of pressure on KC during day 1.

He still has yet to answer my questions about why he didn't push KC harder when he started "losing his lynch"... and of course it stands to reason that scum bussing a teammate would not object to that teammate's wagon losing traction in the later stages of the day.

Please, I feel as if I started most of that pressure on him. You did say I lost MY lynch, not that I stayed on someone else's broken wagon. Also thinking so hard of lynching me for not answering when I'm about to probably get prodded by this point seems really opportunistic.

[WhaleBarnicle]

Okay, you're going to hate me for this Miles but I think the burden of proof is back on you. It's plausible that he took that long to answer, and the responses don't seem unreasonable. I look forward to watching your argument :p

Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not sure I have much of one. His defense is pretty impressive and I especially like that he immediately had a coherent direction to go after responding to my concerns.

UNVOTE: WhaleBarnicle

<333

[WhyMafia]

Are any of these proof that he's scum, or just an ineffectual town? Now of course, these actions DO seem like it would be more likely for scum than they would be for town, but this all just seems SO BAD for scum to do. Even someone totally inexperienced in this game would realize that these sorts of things are just making them asking to get lynched. This is why I feel like this read is weak; it's picking off the low hanging fruit and calling them obvious.

Is too scummy to be scum a thing though? Isn't that most of our basis on the scum read on Canckles?

[WhyMafia]

But changed my mind on whale, definitely liking the rest of his posts
Wheme/Una
That's my lynch pool

[Miles Edgeworth]

I almost feel like I can PoE the game into WM/Wheme/Una but that seems ungodly premature.

[WhyMafia]

Well we're in agreement then on the scum team
If I get lynched, will you promise to spearhead a lynch on them?

[WhaleBarnicle]

So if Whale were to be lynched and he flips scum, is this where I start to look for the accomplice? Funnily enough, his strongest townread is the one guy I sort of suspected, even though it was mainly by proxy via WhyMafia suspicions. Note how Whale has to put something negative about him too, but doesn't find anything but "maybe too towny".
So now I have another possible scum-duo in my mind, it being Perse/Whale.

Well, I guess being cautious makes you scum here

Many players will obviously see this differently, but the way it seems to me (this slot being in focus), I feel like Whale is just hopping on the wagon.
I do not like how he really gives the explanation ready for Cankles, and then says its not enough of a reason.
I edited out the part where Whale explains why no-lynch on D1 is stupid, but then again, WHY did he deem it necessary to write it out? It had been already explained to Cankles, and everyone else, so it seems like an attempt to act helpful where no help was needed anymore.

I was trying to talk about from the perspective of scum and not one of a new player, which up to that point I felt people had been treating him as as opposed to a crafty scum slot.

Then he keeps belittling Cankles few arguments before placing his vote on him. And notice here,

HE PLACES THE L-1 VOTE

, and makes sure to jokingly point it out to avoid scummyness,

BUT HIDES IT IN THE MIDDLE OF A HUGE WALL OF TEXT.

And to make it even more confusing, he next votes for himself in the very same post, basically revoking the L-1

and then revoting in the next post without bringing up the L-1, now that he had a good chance to make sure everyone would notice it.

Also good to know I shouldn't actually expect people to read every word in a post

Here I found most value in my "research". Because Whale basically confirms the biggest reasons I had for scumreading WhyMafia. He feels like a "natural scum" who says his tone is just off, always gets pinned scum etc. But what I found interesting is that Whale states his case on WhyMafia so that he seems like Whales biggest scumread. Yet he votes for Cankles (me). Miles already pointed out how Whale dropped his case for my slot, so I'm not gonna repeat that. He also doesn't have a good question for his second big scumread, shouldn't he try to make WhyMafia speak and give some hard hitting questions?
So then what do we have here?
Scenario A: Whale is scum, WhyMafia is scum. So this would be called distancing, right? And if we really stop to think about it, this is exactly what he would want to do.
Say nothing positive about WhyMafia,

but don't vote him

.
Scenario B: Whale is scum, WhyMafia isn't. This would be Whale preparing his secondary wagon should Cankles survive the lynch, right? Voting towards the likely new wagon, but keeping his actions open for later.

I'm sort of leaning towards scenario B now, because I don't think Whale would be bussing his partner so eagerly D2. Unless it's a tactic WhyMafia discussed with him at night? Whale found his confidence quite suddenly..

Maybe it's a bit of a stretch. So yet again, I sort of see WhyMafia and Whale on different sides of a fence, the same way I see Whale and Miles.

One of the biggest reasons I voted for Cankles was to get him to talk. Sure I thought WhyMaf would be a good scum candidate too, but I could kill two birds with one stone with a vote to Cankles. Not my fault he still refused to talk.

This is a point I'll have to give to Whale: he said he townread Fykus and didn't take part in the wagon that got him lynched. Which would mean that [line]his partner[/line] scum [line]PROBABLY[/line] definitely did.

FTFY

And if I take that list and just paste it here, it says: PersephoneSidekick, King Cankles, Miles Edgeworth, RadiantCowbells, mhsmith0.
Three are confirmed town (myself to me, obv), and the other two are Perse (read my thoughts above) and Miles (read my thoughts above).
This actually warms my gut feeling of Perse potentially being a very GOOD scumplayer.

So it's scummy when I keep one eye on him being really good scum, but totally towny when you do the same thing?

Never reaching the end~
Letters I've written~
Never meaning to send~

Idk if you're doing that weird hidden message shit again, but I appreciate the song choice at least.

[PersephoneSidekick]

I feel like half of us agree on the most likely scumteam and just can't agree which one is more sure? Honestly, rule out Miles and I'm up for lynching Una and WhyMafia in either order.